Can we make the tournament?

[Mu2323]

How many wins will we need to make the tournament. I honestly see 2-3 more losses the rest of the way. It seems that we can hang with the big boys but we need wins to get in. It looks like we have played all our tough games except uconn and syracuse.

[mufvr]

We will need 10 conference wins to go.  I don't think a 9-9 conference record will get us there because we played too many 200+ RPI teams in our pre-conference schedule.  That may come back to haunt us.  We need to learn from that and upgrade our patsies to the likes of Northern IL, Loyola, UIC, Indiana State, etc. on next year's schedule.

[Brewtown Andy]

We will need 10 conference wins to go.  I don't think a 9-9 conference record will get us there because we played too many 200+ RPI teams in our pre-conference schedule.  That may come back to haunt us.  We need to learn from that and upgrade our patsies to the likes of Northern IL, Loyola, UIC, Indiana State, etc. on next year's schedule.

I think scheduling a MAC and MVC team every year would work out well for everyone involved.

[HoopsMalone]

A win either at UConn or at Syracuse is the signature win we need.  That with 10 wins total gets us in I think.  Otherwise, we might need 11 wins to get in.

At 1-3 right now, 10-4 is not out of the question in the rest of the games, particularly since this team is still kind of learning to gel and we might get more out of the freshman as the season goes.


1/17 PROV 4:00 PM
1/20 @ DEP 9:00 PM
1/23 @ SYR 2:00 PM
1/26 RUTG 9:00 PM
1/30 @ CONN 12:00 PM
2/03 DEP 7:00 PM
2/06 @ PROV 12:00 PM
2/13 USF 8:30 PM
2/18 PITT 9:00 PM
2/21 @ CIN 2:00 PM
2/24 @ SJU 7:30 PM
2/28 @ HALL 12:00 PM
3/02 LOU 9:30 PM
3/06 ND 2:00 PM

[reinko]

Don't forget the BET.  Could make a nice little run, with hopefully another signature win or 2.

[MuMark]

"signature wins" are nice but overall profile is just as important.

Last year we were a 6 seed even though we lost 5 of our last 6 (if you include the Big East tourny) and had a major injury for the SC to consider.

We beat only 3 teams that made the tournament last year(UW, WVU, and Nova) and yet we still easily made it.

Beating the other teams that we will be competing against for possible bubble spots will be important along with not losing  to any bottom feeders.

If we on the bubble they will look at who we lost to and how we played in those losses. It sure helped us last year and it will again if we can get to 10  conference wins.

[lab_warrior]

We need to get to 10-6 in conference, win a game or two in the BET, and get one of those marquee wins other than Georgetown @ home.  Also, it does shape up nice that the NCAA looks at the last 10-12 games record.

[MuMark]

I assume you meant 10-8.......

We have 2 more chances for "big" wins. @Syracuse and @ UCONN.......nobody thinks we are going to get one of those and we don't need it though it would be nice.

[mviale]

Can we make the tournament?  Who cares, enjoy the season and promise.

[79Warrior]

Very remote. We have one good win. Zero road wins. I think we are a longshot.

[wadesworld]

We need to get to 10-6 in conference, win a game or two in the BET, and get one of those marquee wins other than Georgetown @ home.  Also, it does shape up nice that the NCAA looks at the last 10-12 games record.

As somebody pointed out, you probably mean 10-8.  There are 18 conference games.  Also, unfortunately for us this year, the NCAA Selection Committee has changed the focus on the last 12 games (previously the last 10 games).  They now look at every game equally throughout the entire season, so the record in the last 12 (or 10) no longer matters.

[farmdaddy]

I think scheduling a MAC and MVC team every year would work out well for everyone involved.

+1

[ChicosBailBonds]

Providence won 10 games last year also.  The problem is that you need to win more than just one signature game.  Providence beat Pitt last year and it still didn't matter.

MU doesn't have any signature wins other than G'Town.  NC State lost again today, at home to an average Virginia team.  Michigan will do us no favors.  Xavier might, but they don't look to be the same old Xavier.

MU has got to win some of these close games to be talking about any of this NCAA stuff.

[Ari Gold]

I think 10-8 with a nice little run into the BET would get us a spot.What it comes down to now is the farther we make it in the Big East Tournament the more likely our chances of an NCAA spot become at this point.

I would expect a good ranking in the tournament but just making it would make me happy. But I really don't have too many qualms about a deep NIT run (read: championship). I wouldn't like it but we might have to take what we can get.

[gumbyandpokey]

The NCAA tourney?

Sorry, but unlike some fans here, the committee doesn't give brownie points for moral victories.  Unless MU pulls off a major upset and gets a really good win, there is no way.

[wadesworld]

The NCAA tourney?

Sorry, but unlike some fans here, the committee doesn't give brownie points for moral victories.  Unless MU pulls off a major upset and gets a really good win, there is no way.

So even if we went 12-2 the rest of our Big East season, with loses coming to UConn and Syracuse, and go 1-1 in the Big East Tournament, with the win being against a bottom half team, we wouldn't make it?  That's what I get out of your statement.  We could go 13-5 and not have a "good" win or an "upset."  Alright, if you say so.

[akmarq]

The NCAA tourney?

Sorry, but unlike some fans here, the committee doesn't give brownie points for moral victories.  Unless MU pulls off a major upset and gets a really good win, there is no way.

Man gumby...you are the definition of sour grapes...it's funny that you didn't really post much after we beat Georgetown (granted the site was down...but still)

This team can def. make the NCAA tournament:
Looking at the schedule, 9 wins is very attainable pending any egg lays with wins against Georgetown, Providence (x2), Depaul (x2), St. Johns, Seton Hall (though this one looks tougher this year than usual), USF, and Rutgers

Add to that the "mid-level" games, of which I think we can win 2 - Pitt and Notre Dame are what I'm banking on...though Louisville also seems possible this year:
Pitt at home
Louisville at home
Notre Dame at home (on senior night)
and at Cincinnati

Then you have the tough ones
at Syracuse
at UCONN

Pull one of those two off, we probably make the tournament, but I would also think that if we can win 3 of those "mid level" games, then we can also make it, esp. with a respectable showing in the BET.

Of course, I am always open to criticism of this analysis...

[mugrad2006]

This team might have an outside chance.  Kenpom has us forecasted at 20-10 (11-7) including home wins against Pitt, ND, and Louisville with losses at Syracuse and at UCONN.  My guess is we drop one of those home games, as Pitt has been improving and Louisville has a history of improving significantly in February.  That means we'd have to win either at UCONN or Syracuse.

I took a look at last year's tournament teams, and both Michigan and Wisconsin made the tourney with only 20 wins. In particular, the Badger's signature non-conference win was at Virginia Tech, which became much less impressive as the season wore on, similar to what we might see from MU's wins over Michigan and Xavier this year.

In conference, the only "signature" road win you could really see was at Michigan, a bubble team as well.  They promptly lost to Ohio State in the first round of the Big Ten tourney.

So, I would argue if MU play's out as kenpom predicts, even without the road wins against Cuse or UCONN we'd have a competitive profile if we win the "mid level" games at home.

The one major difference I see in the two profiles is last UW had a very high SOS, bolstering their RPI (45).  It's been discussed at length on this board already how MU won't have this benefit. 

In case you want to take a look at UW's profile from last year, here's the link http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Wisconsin&y=2009

[mviale]

The NCAA tourney?

Sorry, but unlike some fans here, the committee doesn't give brownie points for moral victories.  Unless MU pulls off a major upset and gets a really good win, there is no way.

Gumby - you have bigger problems in bloomington

[Benny B]

The NCAA tourney?

Sorry, but unlike some fans here, the committee doesn't give brownie points for moral victories.  Unless MU pulls off a major upset and gets a really good win, there is no way.

I don't know what qualifies as a "brownie point" amongst the hill-folk, but here in civilized America, margin of victory is considered by the committee when evaluating bubble teams.

The three "moral victories" over the past ten days won't get MU on the bubble, but if the rest of their resume can, the close losses to top 10 teams plays in their favor.

[Norm]

A win either at UConn or at Syracuse is the signature win we need.  That with 10 wins total gets us in I think.  Otherwise, we might need 11 wins to get in.

At 1-3 right now, 10-4 is not out of the question in the rest of the games, particularly since this team is still kind of learning to gel and we might get more out of the freshman as the season goes.


1/17 PROV 4:00 PM
1/20 @ DEP 9:00 PM
1/23 @ SYR 2:00 PM
1/26 RUTG 9:00 PM
1/30 @ CONN 12:00 PM
2/03 DEP 7:00 PM
2/06 @ PROV 12:00 PM
2/13 USF 8:30 PM
2/18 PITT 9:00 PM
2/21 @ CIN 2:00 PM
2/24 @ SJU 7:30 PM
2/28 @ HALL 12:00 PM
3/02 LOU 9:30 PM
3/06 ND 2:00 PM

I guess I am going to be the contrarian in this thread and say that I doubt we'll get enough wins in conference to earn an NCAA dance card.

My guess is MU will lose at Syracuse, at UConn, Pitt, at Cincinnati, at Seton Hall, and Louisville. I also would not be shocked if we lost at Providence and at home against ND.

Yes, I know I sound like a downer, but just looking at the matchups and MU's history against these teams, I think it will be a struggle to get enough wins to make the NCAA's. I hope I am wrong.

[TallTitan34]

Yes.

[warthog-driver]

Yes

[MUrugger]

Let me make it three in a row with an affirmative to the posted question.

My guess is that remaining schedule computes to 9-5 to go along with our 1-3 to this point.  The 10-6 record then boils down to the BE Tourney from the committee's perspective, it seems to me, which means that it would be nice to win two in the BE tournament.  If we did, I don't think that there's any question that we would be selected as one of the country's top 64.

I'd bet that my predicted 9-5 finish includes at least one loss that posters here have had us winning and a corresponding win in a game that we were expected to lose.  Like Buzz's quotes about our margin of error to secure a win, the predictions in this post leave no margin for error for anything less than a 9-5 finish if we want to dance.

Any gamblers know what Marquette's record this year has been against the spread?  I'd wager that you'd be well ahead in support of the Warriors and that there will be continued opportunities to make some dough.  

[Sheriff]

Don't know how much weight "bad losses" carry in determining tournament worthiness but, unlike the past few years, there haven't been any to this point in the season.