Can we make the tournament?

[Brewtown Andy]

Don't know how much weight "bad losses" carry in determining tournament worthiness but, unlike the past few years, there haven't been any to this point in the season.

Let's see how NC State's season shakes out before we say that.

[Golden Avalanche]

Let's see how NC State's season shakes out before we say that.

Agreed. They lost at home to Virginia. The tea leaves aren't promising for the Wolfpack.

[gumbyandpokey]

Don't know how much weight "bad losses" carry in determining tournament worthiness but, unlike the past few years, there haven't been any to this point in the season.

NC State at home is a bad loss.

[mug644]

For me the answer is yes, but I am reminded of what Buzz seems to say often, that the margin for error is very small for this team. If we were 2-2 or 3-1 or even 4-0, plus if we had beat FSU and/or NC St. our margin of error would be bigger, at least for getting into the tournament. As it stands now, we don't have much leeway for a surprise loss, or even a loss away at a place like Providence.

[Sheriff]

NC State at home is a bad loss.

Unless NC State turns it around, that may turn out to be the case.  Just didn't think that that loss would have the same negative impact on a body of work as did the home losses to Winthrop (2006) or North Dakota St (2007).

[willie warrior]

I believe that we will need at minimum to go 9-9 in Conference to make the tourney. More likely 10-8. Those marks will give us 18 or 19 wins.

That being said, we must get at least two more quality wins over somebody like Syracuse, UCONN, or some of the other top 4 teams in the conference.

Is 10-8 achievable, considering we are now 1-3? What do others think?

[gumbyandpokey]

I believe that we will need at minimum to go 9-9 in Conference to make the tourney. More likely 10-8. Those marks will give us 18 or 19 wins.

That being said, we must get at least two more quality wins over somebody like Syracuse, UCONN, or some of the other top 4 teams in the conference.

Is 10-8 achievable, considering we are now 1-3? What do others think?

I'd agree with that.  Two more good wins and no more bad losses and MU has a decent chance.  So far, they have one good win (Georgetown) and one bad loss (NC State) that cancel each other out.

[MuMark]

UW made the tournament last year with a 19-12 record.

The Badger's "quality wins" were Michigan twice, OSU and Illinois.

Thats it. Those are the only teams they beat that made the tourny last year yet somehow they made it.

They got blown out by UCONN . They lost 2 games to Minnesota and Purdue.

Against tournament teams they were 4-10. They didn't win even one  game in the conference tourney.

Right now we have 1 or 2 wins against NCAA teams depending on what happens with Xavier. We have 5 losses against those teams. 3 of them on the road and one on a neutral site.

This idea that you need to beat top 10-15 teams on the road to get in is just silly. All bubble teams are flawed and have less then impressive resumes. The SC watches games and although moral victories don't count playing good teams close does make a difference. If it didn't we wouldn't have been a 6 seed last year because our resume of actual wins wasn't that great.

7 or 8 teams will make the tourny from the Big East. We have  beat one of them already. Getting 2-3  more wins against the likes of Pitt, Cincy, ND and Louisville should put us in decent shape to squeek in as long as we get to 10 wins. 11 is a lock obviously.

If we don't beat 2 of those teams(3 of those games are at home) then we don't deserve to get in.

ps. UW also had a bad loss last year against an Iowa team that was worse then NC State is this year.

[HoopsMalone]

The Pac-10 being down this year could help MU's chances.  The Pac-10 may only put in 2 or 3 teams at the end of the season leaving spots open for a team like MU.  I'd feel a lot safer with 11 wins, though.

[mugrad2006]

UW made the tournament last year with a 19-12 record.

The Badger's "quality wins" were Michigan twice, OSU and Illinois.

Thats it. Those are the only teams they beat that made the tourny last year yet somehow they made it.

They got blown out by UCONN . They lost 2 games to Minnesota and Purdue.

Against tournament teams they were 4-10. They didn't win even one  game in the conference tourney.

Right now we have 1 or 2 wins against NCAA teams depending on what happens with Xavier. We have 5 losses against those teams. 3 of them on the road and one on a neutral site.

This idea that you need to beat top 10-15 teams on the road to get in is just silly. All bubble teams are flawed and have less then impressive resumes. The SC watches games and although moral victories don't count playing good teams close does make a difference. If it didn't we wouldn't have been a 6 seed last year because our resume of actual wins wasn't that great.

7 or 8 teams will make the tourny from the Big East. We have  beat one of them already. Getting 2-3  more wins against the likes of Pitt, Cincy, ND and Louisville should put us in decent shape to squeek in as long as we get to 10 wins. 11 is a lock obviously.

If we don't beat 2 of those teams(3 of those games are at home) then we don't deserve to get in.

ps. UW also had a bad loss last year against an Iowa team that was worse then NC State is this year.

As I stated earlier in this thread, both UW and Michigan last year made the tourney with only 20 overall wins.  That suggests that MU has a chance if they win the games their projected to win (even losing to UCONN and Syracuse). 

The benefit that those teams had, that MU won't, is better SOS helping their RPI.  Because the Big Televen always plays the B10/ACC challenge, their SOS and opponent SOS boosts RPI as the season goes on.

If MU ends up on the onside looking in with 19 or 20 wins, this will likely be one of the major reasons.

[mug644]

As I stated earlier in this thread, both UW and Michigan last year made the tourney with only 20 overall wins.  That suggests that MU has a chance if they win the games their projected to win (even losing to UCONN and Syracuse). 

The benefit that those teams had, that MU won't, is better SOS helping their RPI.  Because the Big Televen always plays the B10/ACC challenge, their SOS and opponent SOS boosts RPI as the season goes on.

If MU ends up on the onside looking in with 19 or 20 wins, this will likely be one of the major reasons.

As I said earlier in the thread, the tough losses in winnable games so far puts MU in the position where it needs to win all the games they are projected to win. But, as Buzz says, the margin for error in any one game is small--can't have foul trouble, need to hit threes, gotta force turnovers, must hit free throws--that we must still expect a surprise loss. Hell, even Depaul could shock us the way South Florida did in the past. If we were at least 2-2 so far, and if we hadn't lost the nailbiters out of conference, we wouldn't be in the position where we can't have any disappointing losses.

Buzz says that our margin for error in each game is small, and each loss--whether a moral victory or no--makes the margin of error for the season smaller.

[MuMark]

UW made the tourny with 19 wins not 20. One of those wins was against SIU Ewardsville(non D 1) which didn't count as far as the RPI is concerned.

So they had 18 real wins entering the tournament.

[reinko]

How many potential bad losses are still on the MU schedule?

Providence @ home, @Depaul, Depaul @ home, Rutgers @ home, South Florida @ home.

I don't think any BE road loss (except Depaul) could be counted as a bad one.

MU gets these 5, splits the remaining 6 road games (PC, UCONN, 'Cuse, St. Johns, Cincy, SH), then splits the final two @ home ('Ville and ND) should be enough. 

But what the crap do I know.

[Eye]

For whomever asked, MU is 6-4 ATS this season.

Xavier +5 won by 10
Mich +1 won by 14
FSU Pk lost by 1
NC St -10 lost by 4
Shorewood St -14 won by 20
Rodents +5.5 lost by 9
WV +12 lost by 1
Nova home PK lost by 2
Gtown - 1.5 won by 3
Nova road +8.5 lost by 2

9-9 seems to me the minimum required to be considered for an at-large heading into the BET. If 9-9 into BET, I'd say one win keeps MU on the bubble (depends on how good mid-major conference champions fare in their conference tourney's, how the other BCS conferences play out), two puts MU in pretty good shape, three is a lock.

10-8 is the true bubble land. I'd say that at a minimum gets them on the bubble. One win in the BET gets them into pretty good shape at that point. I'd say 11-7 puts them in regardless of results in the BET.

Summary ... I'd say any tally of 11 Big East wins between the conference tourney and the regular season would be enough, assuming at least .500 in the regular season.

Now, where to find those 10 more wins ...

Likely wins - PC, DU, Rutgers, USF. Gets MU 4 of the necessary 10.

Means MU would need to take care of business in those 4 and win 6 of the other 10 - at DU, at cuse, at UConn (I'm not totally dismissing MU winning one of those 2 with as competitive as they've been at WVU and nova), at PC, Pitt, at UC, at SJU, at Hall, U of L, ND

Breaking that 10 down farther home and road, likely need one of these combos - 3-0 at home; 3-4 on road (overall 8-1 at home, 3-6 on road); 2-1 at home, 4-3 on road (overall 7-2 at home, 4-5 on road, seems the most likely to me).

Assuming the 4 likely wins above, I'd say it'll take one of the following two scenarios to get the 11 BE wins.

Beat Pitt, U of L and ND at home, beat 3 of 7 DU, cuse, UConn, PC, UC, SJU, Hall on road

Beat 2 of the aforementioned 3 at home, beat 4 of the aforementioned 6 on the road.

I'm honestly not sure we're going to know a ton more about MU's tourney status 5 1/2 weeks from now than we do now. I think MU is something like 7-5 heading into its final 6, with most of them against teams at or near the bubble.

BTW, MU currently is 46th in conference RPI on Jerry Palm's site due to the strength of schedule and one quality win so far. Xavier right now is a good win; TBD if it stays that way. You would hope the NC State loss won't turn out to be a bad one with the strength of the ACC pulling the Wolfpack up, but that is a possibility. NC State is currently 118 in the RPI.

One last note; profiles in the past with the combo of a good road win and a bad home loss seem to have been viewed better than a profile with no good road wins but also no bad home losses.