The "Inexperience & Youth" Fallacy

[Benny B]

So, right off, let me beat a dead horse... the 09-10 MU team is young and inexperienced.  Right?

After all, every single prediction, preview, blog, etc. about this year's team mentions those two words, inexperience and youth, almost ad nauseum.

And everyone is ready to chalk this year up as a "rebuilding" year, especially after the loss of the best trio of guards most of have seen in our lifetime.  Most national (and local) predictions have MU to finish no better than 11th.  And the reason that is cited by everyone?  You guessed it - inexperience and youth.

But are we placing too much emphasis on inexperience and youth?  Is it really the 'end all, be all' predictor of success?  Honestly, what would you rather have: a team consisting entirely of 4 & 5-star freshman or a team of 3-star seniors?  If those two teams play 10 times, the freshmen win at least 5.

Four years ago, a team led by three freshman & Sweet Shootin' Steve beat UCONN in its first BE game, upset teams like Pitt & G-Town, and went on to gain the #4 seed in the BET.  A team starting three freshman guards far exceeded everyone's expectations without the benefit of a single lottery-pick or All-American type player.  How could that happen?  They were too young and inexperienced.

Granted, inexperience and youth plays a role.  But I would argue that the greater forces in determining success are expectations and leadership.  What is being expected of those who lack D-I minutes and how well-adjusted are those individuals to handle the pressure?  Who is mentoring the new players and are those people bona fide leaders?  Instead of focusing on how young and inexperienced this year's team is, focus on answering those two questions.

Personally, I find great comfort in my answers to those questions.  I don't think that this team is going to compete for the BE title, but I think it irresponsible dismissing them from the upper half of the BE just because of inexperience and youth.  These guys have talent - way too much to be overcome by inexperience and youth.

Inexperience and youth ---  I'm sick of those words.  Hopefully you are too.

Let the season begin.

[bilsu]

/quote]

That is why I am looking forward to next season.

[Hards Alumni]

So, right off, let me beat a dead horse... the 09-10 MU team is young and inexperienced.  Right?

After all, every single prediction, preview, blog, etc. about this year's team mentions those two words, inexperience and youth, almost ad nauseum.

And everyone is ready to chalk this year up as a "rebuilding" year, especially after the loss of the best trio of guards most of have seen in our lifetime.  Most national (and local) predictions have MU to finish no better than 11th.  And the reason that is cited by everyone?  You guessed it - inexperience and youth.

But are we placing too much emphasis on inexperience and youth?  Is it really the 'end all, be all' predictor of success?  Honestly, what would you rather have: a team consisting entirely of 4 & 5-star freshman or a team of 3-star seniors?  If those two teams play 10 times, the freshmen win at least 5.

Four years ago, a team led by three freshman & Sweet Shootin' Steve beat UCONN in its first BE game, upset teams like Pitt & G-Town, and went on to gain the #4 seed in the BET.  A team starting three freshman guards far exceeded everyone's expectations without the benefit of a single lottery-pick or All-American type player.  How could that happen?  They were too young and inexperienced.

Granted, inexperience and youth plays a role.  But I would argue that the greater forces in determining success are expectations and leadership.  What is being expected of those who lack D-I minutes and how well-adjusted are those individuals to handle the pressure?  Who is mentoring the new players and are those people bona fide leaders?  Instead of focusing on how young and inexperienced this year's team is, focus on answering those two questions.

Personally, I find great comfort in my answers to those questions.  I don't think that this team is going to compete for the BE title, but I think it irresponsible dismissing them from the upper half of the BE just because of inexperience and youth.  These guys have talent - way too much to be overcome by inexperience and youth.

Inexperience and youth ---  I'm sick of those words.  Hopefully you are too.

Let the season begin.

those freshman all started, and were not 3 stars.

we will be starting 2 seniors, 1 junior, 1 freshman, and 1 sophomore.

probably.

[AZWarrior]

The early indications are good.  As is common knowledge, we kicked Virginia's booty in the scrimmage.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The early indications are good.  As is common knowledge, we kicked Virginia's booty in the scrimmage.

that will help our NCAA seeding.  and our reputation on the ESPN message boards.

[Nukem2]

At an MU luncheon today,  Aki Collins addressed that very subject saying that we all need to be fair in evaluating this group as that was then and now is now and the circumstances are far different now.  Stated as Buzz has that we need to get solid back-to-back recruiting classes into the program to get to the level of talent and experience that we just lost along with the fact that Junior is out for the season. He was not trying to be negative nor trying to lower expectations but just to be fair to all.  He sees a bright future.

[AZWarrior]

Sand-bagger.   

[thanooj]

it's quite possibly a plus to have "inexperience and youth" coupled with "experience and age".
The newcomers to this years team will have the benefit of playing with a senior and former "4 star" recruit in Lazar who should see an uptick in his production yet again.  They will also benefit from having two senior guards who at the very least have been through not only the BE schedule, but the grind of an entire div 1 college basketball season multiple times.  Add in Jimmy Butler and his transition from sixth man to starter and Fulce's rise to contributor after a solid year of experience and we have good balance.
The argument is that we lost a ton of production.  True, but we have talented kids that are ready to play.  I think we are going to be better than many think.  the newcomers should bring an energy and drive that will mesh nicely with the "experience" we have.

[cheebs09]

I think that most would say a team of 4 and 5 star freshman would be better than 3 star seniors. However, we are facing mostly teams in the Big East that have a lot of 4 and 5 star upper classmen. So we will still be behind many teams. Also, we lost who we thought would be our starting point guard. I think we can manage, but as of now, unless Buycks or DJO are able to handle the point well, it can't be considered a strength which it might have been had Junior been healthy. I think we will be better than the experts think, but at the same time expecting this team to overachieve just because the Big 3 and Novak did it is pretty unfair.

[madtownwarrior]

I know it was MSOE - but it seems like one of the positives of the Three Amigos graduating (I know blasphemy, I hate to say it even) is that our outside shooting has a good chance to be better....

Lazar shoots well, Butler will be taking more shots, Bucyks looks like he has a good shot.  If Cubillian returns to fresh/soph shooting form, we may have a better shooting percentage year....

[Daniel]

If we have 2 or 3 guys who can threaten to hit the 3 consistently, then that will help open the lanes too and help the inside game.  I think we will scaore points once our new guys settle into playing D1 ball.

Can we control the TOs and defend?  If so, we will do better that the experts predict!

GO MARQUETTE!!