Observations from the far side of the glass

[spiral97]

Just a bunch of thoughts I have after watching the Providence game.  First off, what a turning of the tables in many aspects!!  Providence hammered us in the TO stat 15 for them vs 21 for us as well as in points off TOs.  This has been Marquette's forte all season long.  On the flip side, Marquette dominated in points in the paint, offensive and defensive rebounds, and blocks.  All those against a team with multiple quality bigs (a concern many of us shared) - so much for shutting us down inside!  I am growing more confident that we have a decent shot at beating ANY team - even on the road.  I still think we're not as good as we can be but we're playing very, very well as a team IMHO.  What a way to continue our 7 game winning streak (anyone know what the ranks among active winning streaks right now?).  If I had to guess our AP rank come Monday, I would say #11.

The Wade jersey retirement ceremony was a classy classy classy event.  Wade once again demonstrating the humility and grace that make him a very popular figure.  Love the banners - individual recognition for each player that is so honored and yet not consuming the entire side of the building.  I do wonder, though, if they might have been better off leaving the numbers off completely and using the player names instead.

Onto the players:
- Barro had a solid game even though his numbers don't show it.  So far, we have seen Marquette's fortunes reflected in his numbers - when he plays well, so do we; when he doesn't we struggle.  Not so much the case today.  Lots of good under the basket play from him both offensively in tough angle shots and defensively in getting in the opponents face.  He needs to demand the ball more - not vocally but in presence.  When he starts tearing through those hands in his face like paper to get to the hoop and put the ball away then he will have reached his next level - it is coming my friends, sometime during the rest of the season something will get him mad and he'll just explode in the post.

- DJ is almost a bench contributor in this game.  If I had to choose starters based on this game alone, I'd say McNeal, Barro, Matthews, Fitz, and Cubillan.  Yes, I'd substitute Cube for DJ.  Their numbers were virtually identical despite Cube playing for 10 fewer minutes.  In addition, Cube always looked twice as energetic and a heck of a lot less of a liability.  I am no longer concerned about the ramifications for next season if DJ goes pro - we play very very well as a team without DJ in the mix.  DJ's contributions when he is hot are a definite bonus but we have solid contributors developing that are significantly removing the weight on his shoulders.  I hope DJ stays for another year because I personally want to see him get better - but these hopes are in no way based on any fear of seeing the team "have to go without him" next year.  He needs to focus on passing the ball and setting his teammates up.  He should be regularly getting a minimum of 8 assists per game.  The shots will come when the opponent respects his passing.

- Fitz - WOW.  At the beginning of this season, a lot of people were discussing how in the heck are we going to replace novak??  Fitz accounts for about 70% of Novak's replacement.  Fitz brings more to the table IMHO as he is a more well-rounded player.  Every time I blinked he has moved from the perimeter to the post or vice versa.  He's becoming a half big and a half perimeter shooter.  What a powerful combination to have.  To complete the Novak replacement question, we have Cubillan stepping in to contribute the remaining 30%.  Again, he is a much more complete player in that he can get low, in the opponents face, and defend.  I love novak but I think I might, just might, prefer his shooting ability split up like it is on today's team - not as much of a liability on the defensive end of the court and an extra 5 fouls in the package.  Only place I can see Fitz improving is getting stronger in the post.  Strongly complementing Barro on an as needed basis should be his next goal.

- Matthews has been defining himself nicely.  10-10 to lead the team in FT's is HUGE - particularly when nobody else shot better than 50%.  Further, he had 42% of the team's FT shots - this tells me he is reliable in driving and picking up the foul on the way to the hoop.  Matthews to me is our X-factor.  Teams are just starting to figure out that "hey - DJ is deadly when on fire but McNeal can change the entire game single-handedly".. Give em a few months and they'll reveal the next layer of the onion to find that Matthews has been even more stealthily slicing open the achilles heal of many of our opponents.  Matthews needs to work on his jumper, stay away from the 3 shots and continue drawing contact, and reducing his turnovers. 

- McNeal remains my MVP for the team, hands down no if's and's or but's about it.  I keep holding my breath and hoping the scouts watching DJ don't take notice of McNeal instead.  This team would suffer far more without McNeal than without DJ next year.  Seemed to have an average game.. then I check the box score and hey! he got his second double-double IN A ROW.  Oh, and led the team in assists with 5 too, not to mention leading all players in the game in points.  His defensive contribution is incredible - there's a reason he is number 3 in the country in steals per game average.  Those stats, unfortunately, is not all he led in this game.. at the risk of sounding like a broken record, he needs to improve his dribble and reduce his turnovers.

-Others: Cubillan continues to impress in stretches.  I have to keep reminding myself he is a freshman.  Lott and Burke are providing nice big body interior presence for short spurts - every team needs guys like them.  Hayward still looks somewhat lost out there.  Sometimes he'll make a sweet play only to be completely out of position the next play and make bad decisions.  He'll get better once his basketball mind has found its bearings at the college level.  No Blackledge (again) - wonder what's going on here.

BTW - Of the non-freshmen, I can easily see DJ, McNeal, Fitz, and possibly Barro in the NBA someday.  The Matthews arena is still a bit foggy to me but time will tell.

[spiral97]

To answer my own question.. we'd be tied for about #10 on the active winning streak list according to the ncaa stat page.  I say about because this list is as of yesterday and we were tied for #12 on it with 6.

[MUCHI814]

Fitzgerald and Barro in the NBA? I doubt that

[77ncaachamps]

Yup. I'm with you. NBDL...MAYBE...

Heck, DJ could easily end up in the NBDL. His all-around O game is lacking.

When I see him, I think of Nate Robinson: a small guy who plays with reckless abandon. But Nate was a better shooter.

[spiral97]

Fitzgerald and Barro in the NBA? I doubt that

If Fitz continues the path he's on I can see it - he'd have to have a serious season next year but, in my opinion, it doesn't require an acceleration in improvement over what we're seeing today.

same for barro but that is a little further away hence the "maybe" in my earlier statement.

this is currently a subjective debate obviously, so to each their own.  I certainly hope I turn out to be right

[CWSKeith]

James didn't shoot the ball well at all today, yet I didn't think he was a detriment to the team at all.  For one, I thought that this was one of his better defensive games he's played, even though he didn't record a steal.  There were multiple times where James was able to prevent dribble penetration from Curry just by beating him to the spot.  He looked very focused out there defensively, and that was great to see, especially on a night where he wasn't shooting particularly well.

I also think you're kidding yourself if you think that we won't feel too much of an effect if James leaves.  For one, he's our best passer.  His court vision is quite amazing, especially when penetrating to the basket.  Cubillan could hit threes more consistently than James, but the threes they take are usually of different kinds.  Cubillan is usually shooting his threes (fairly) wide-open, as guys like McNeal penetrate and kick, whereas James is shooting over guys (sometimes bad shots). 

Cubillan seems to have a tough time driving to the basket.  He doesn't on his penetration, either, because he's so small and can't jump nearly as well as James can.  He's also nowhere near as quick as James.

I really don't want people to think I'm 'bashing' Cubillan; he's been great this year, and I love him as the first guard off the bench.  But I also think he's perfect for that role, and that we'd see quite a dropoff if he were starting next year instead of James.  He's nowhere near as talented as James, yet he's always going balls out, and you can tell that he takes a lot of pride on the defensive end.  He seems like one of those tough SOBs that you hate playing against because they're always going all out.

[TJ]

Fitzgerald and Barro in the NBA? I doubt that

If Fitz continues the path he's on I can see it - he'd have to have a serious season next year but, in my opinion, it doesn't require an acceleration in improvement over what we're seeing today.

Fitz has had a few good games in a row, but he was an absolute liability on the floor for the first half of the year this season!  He would have to be amazing next year to have a good shot at the NBA.  His shot is soooooooo sloooooooow - I don't know that he could get one off in the NBA.  He also passes on too many shots - if you're going to be a great shooter, you can't only shoot when it's wide-open.  I can't believe that I read in this thread "Fitz is a more well-rounded player than Novak"  Maybe Novak as a Sophomore, but Novak's senior year he made tremendous strides and was really becoming a great college player (not just shooter) - with the ability to rebound and play decent D.  And Novak was able to shoot with a hand in his face.  Two hands sometimes...

I truly hope he continues to improve and becomes a great player for us over the next year and 2 months, and if he makes the NBA I'll be extremely happy for him, but I just don't see it at this point in his career.  And he's nowhere near the player Novak was, at least in my opinion.

[nycwarrior]

Wow. You guys must have been drinking at the game.

This team is great to watch when they're playing with high intensity. They challenge everything. They rebound. They attack passing lanes and push the ball. Outside of the Final Four team, Marquette basketball hasn't been this exciting since the 70s.

I agree that the improvement in some of the bench guys (Fitz, Cube) and the Ooze are the most dramatic improvement. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Dj is our point guard. Opponents start their preparation with stopping him. He's not scoring as much as a lot of us thought but damn is he a floor general. He's running the show almost flawlessly over the last seven games. Think he even went a couple in a row without a turnover. Amazing. And his slower than expected year is a blessing for us, it seems that we'll have him for at least another year.

I love the confidence that we're finally seeing with Fitz. His game has come leaps and bounds. But let's be honest, Fitz has a ways to go to be Mr. Novak. Novak wasn't a good shooter, he was arguably the best shooter in the country. With the game on the line is there really any question whether you'd want Cube, Fitz or Novak taking the shot? No way. Love Fitz but think his cieling is more All Big East second team as opposed to NBA draft pick.

McNeal is a very good college player and with two more great years of constant improvement, he could have a shot at the NBA. Right now we have absolutely no danger of losing him to the NBA. He would not be drafted.

Ooze is the first Big Man we've seen make real strides in the Crean era. (I'd argue that RJax got in better shape but didn't add a whole lot more to his game and Merritt seemed to top out in his sophomore year.)

Hope these guys keep gettin better. If they do it's hard to imagine us going one and out in the Big East Tourney or Dance.

[herboturbo]

Ooze is the first Big Man we've seen make real strides in the Crean era. (I'd argue that RJax got in better shape but didn't add a whole lot more to his game and Merritt seemed to top out in his sophomore year.)

You're joking right.  Merritt's numbers went up every year he played even though he had serious shoulder injuries and Jackson couldn't even use his left hand if the right was cut off at Miss st. 

Besides that Naamaka, Harris, Marcus Jackson, Novak, and Terry Sanders all got better while they played at MU.  Even Blankson improved a lot during his two years here.  On the flip side I would say that Grimm and Mueller didn't improve much while here (talking about guys already gone only.)  Has Ooze made the biggest strides of them?  Possibly, but he also started from the worst basketball background. 

[nycwarrior]

Hey Herboturbo,

Your post made me feel guilty for doubting Crean and a lot of the guys you mentioned so I had to look back at what i could find online. I know that stats don't tell the whole story but after taking a look back I think that it's really hard to make a case for our post guys having gotten better.

And let me be clear. I'm talking about adding simple stuff to your game that allows you to finish inside more often - a drop step, a baby hook, a mid-range jumper.

So, while I agree that Novak got better every year, I'd argue that his improvement came in every facet of the game but post skills.

I concede that Merritt contributed a ton to the program. Without him there probably would have been no conference championship and no Final Four (without him we don't make it past Mizzou).

But it's hard to argue that he improved a ton after about halfway through his sophomore year. Merritt's averages as far as I could dig up online:
2000-2001: 6 pts, 3.6 Rebs
01 - 02: 5.9 pts, 4.4 Rebs
02 - 03: 10.1 pts, 6.6 Rebs
03 - 04: 9 pts., 7 Rebs

Shooting percentage never got above 48%. Never had more than a block a game.

Robert Jackson
My favorite big man of the Crean Era. He controlled the paint even more than his stats suggest and provided a vital balance to Wade, Diener and Novak. He also gives TC all the credit in the world for his getting better and getting into game shape. Despite that he went from averaging 13 and 7 as a junior in the SEC to 15 and 8 as a senior in C-USA. If he was so one-dimensional the year before I don't know how he could have put up such good numbers in a better league.

Marcus Jackson finished his eligibility without a drop step or a reasonable baby hook. Sure he helped to bring up the ball when we found ourselves without a real PG but that doesn't  mean that his post skills got any better.

In terms of Jon Harris and Terry Sanders were good for a bucket or so a game. Then guys like Meuller or Grimm who never really even became servicable.

Bottom line is that while our guards have consistently shown VAST improvement, our bigs have gotten, at best, marginally better. I'm hoping that the flashes we've seen from Burke and the steadily improving play of OOOZE are the start of something new.

Maybe it's Robert Jackson and Shaquillvaine getting the guys tougher in practice?

[RawdogDX]

Fitzgerald and Barro in the NBA? I doubt that

Barro will be in the nba after he averages 15 and 9 next year and is rewarded by being 2nd team all big east.