[Cracked Sidewalks] McNeal ranks as 9th best player in Marquette history

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

McNeal ranks as 9th best player in Marquette history

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

I know everyone is ready to move onto recruiting news and the next era, but the publisher is not reissuing the Ultimate Hoops Guide â€" Marquette University, so I wanted to post the new calculations after the 2008-09 season here so anyone who has the book can stick this in the back cover.

I know I have been an unabashed Pollyanna on this class, but rather than give my opinions on where these players rank, this column is just the result of the final number-crunching after the 2008-09 season.  On January 15th, I posted that Jerel McNeal was on pace to finish as the 19th best player in MU history while Dominic James and Wesley Matthews were on pace to finish just outside the Top 20.  

While the latter two stayed on that pace, McNeal then exploded to put up amazing numbers through most of the Big East season and become only the second player since Butch Lee in 1978 to be selected as one of the top 10 players in the country by the AP (2nd Team All-American).

Statistically one of the thinnest teams in history:  The first calculation estimates each players’ “Win Credits,” which is a measure of how many wins he was worth to the team based purely on statistics.  The formula gives McNeal 7.4 Win Credits, Wesley Matthews 6.6, Lazar Hayward 6.3, Dominic James 3.4, Jimmy Butler 1.3 and Dwight Burke 0.1. Based purely on statistics, 81% of the teams wins came from the top three players.  The only other time that’s happened since 1931 was in 1960 when Don Kojis, Walt Mangham and Jim Kollar were the only three left from the previous year's Sweet 16 team, and accounted for 84% of the team's wins.  Tony Smith, Trevor Powell and Tyrone Baldwin were just under 80%, but had some help from Mark Anglavar.

McNeal had best season since Wade.  The best seasons in history are calculated by how many Win Credits the player was on pace for per 100 games played.  By that measure, McNeal had the best season (21.1 wins per 100 games, 21st best ever), since 2003 when Wade had the best season ever (28.0, 1st).  Both Wes and Lazar put up one of the best 50 seasons in history this year - Matthews (18.7, 37th), Hayward (17.9, 48th).  The other three statistical contributors were Dominic James (9.8, 232nd), Jimmy Butler (3.8, 477th), Dwight Burke (0.2, 643rd).  The rest of the team didn’t register any Win Credits, though Acker would have broken through with another game or two.  In history, most player seasons (877 of 1,529) have not included enough contributions to merit Win Credits.

After combining each players' seasons into a “Career Statistical Rating” (0 to 31.2 scale with Bo Ellis ranking 31.2), each player gets an “Impact Rating” of 0-10 based on how far he takes the team, and a 0-15 “Dominance Rating” which gives points for All-American and All-Conference honors and NBA credentials (how high was he drafted and how long did he play).

These calculations were developed a year ago, so they are not tailored to the current players.  

1st Calculation - Career Statistical Ratings:  The Career Statistical Rating is the biggest factor in a player's rating in this system, and without going into a long explanation here, the highest career statistical ranking is a 31.2 for Ellis.  McNeal is the 8th best statistical player in MU history with a 25.7 rating, followed by Matthews (20th at 21.8), James (24th at 21.4) and Hayward (27th at 19.7 with one year to play).

2nd Calculation - Impact:  The second factor in my rankings is the Impact Rating â€" and this is where the Three Amigos are hurt by never cracking the Sweet 16.  A table referencing how far each team went and how key the player was to that year's success determines the ranking.  A “tier 1” team is a Final Four team, a “tier 2” team is a team that made the Elite 8 or was ranked in the top 8 at the end of the season.  Therefore, the Three Amigos never ranked higher than a “tier 3” team â€" a ranked team but not one that made a deep run.

On this count, McNeal and company will always rank behind the likes of Ellis, who was a key part of two National Championship games, and Maurice Lucas and Dwyane Wade, who were each clearly the best player on a Final Four team.  However, as the only class outside of the McGuire years that has finished three straight seasons ranked, the formula gives James and McNeal each an “8,” Matthews a “7” and Hayward a “6.”

3rd Calculation - Dominance:  The third factor is based on the accolades the player received by being selected as an All-American or All-Conference player, and where they were picked in the NBA draft (which used to go 10 rounds deep).  There are always unselfish players like Doc Rivers who don’t rank quite at the top statistically, but still calculate as elite players because writers and coaches name them All-Americans and NBA scouts get them drafted.

On this front, McNeal’s selection as a 2nd team All-American gives him a “13” on a scale of 1-15, while James gets a “10” for having been an Honorable Mention All-American in 2005, and Matthews will likewise get a “10” assuming projections are correct, and he is a 2nd round draft pick in the upcoming NBA draft.  If not, he would slip to a “9” based on being selected 2nd team Big East this year.  Hayward already is an “8” for his previous conference accolades.

McNeal 2nd player since Rivers to be picked as one of the best 10 in the country:  While it is true that Marquette has had six All-Americans since Doc Rivers, four of those have been Honorable Mentions, meaning they were among the 50 or so best players in the country.  Only Wade (1st team in 2003) and McNeal (2nd team this year), were selected by national sports writers as among the 10 best players in the country.

Since the AP started selecting All-American teams in 1948, only four other Marquette players have been likewise among the 10 best players in the US by their measure â€" Dean Meminger (1971), Jim Chones (1972), Butch Lee (1977 & 1978) and Dwyane Wade (2003).  Converse picked two other Marquette players among the five best in the country; Ed Mullins (1934) and Don Kojis (1961), and a total of 26 Marquette players have been listed on other All-American teams or received at least an honorable mention from the AP.  

Where do they rank all-time?

So after compiling a 94-41 record in four years, where do the Three Amigos rank all-time?  

McNeal’s All-American final season propelled him from No. 26 all-time, to the 9th best player in the history of Marquette basketball based on crunching these numbers.  Matthews actually made a bigger jump, as he was ranked only as the 70th best player before this season, but moved all the way to No. 22 on the list â€" virtually tied with James (21st).  Meanwhile Hayward is currently at 35th all-time with a season left to play.  The following lists the Top 50, followed by the records their teams had and the years they played:

1, Dwyane Wade, (53-13 in 2002, 03); 2, Maurice (Bo) Ellis, (101-18 in 1974, 75, 76, 77); 3, Alfred (Butch) Lee, (99-17 in 1975, 76, 77, 78); 4, George Thompson, (68-20 in 1967, 68, 69); 5, Dean Meminger, (78-9 in 1969, 70, 71); 6, Jim Chones, (53-5 in 1971, 72); 7, Maurice Lucas, (51-9 in 1973, 74); 8, Don Kojis, (52-29 in 1959, 60, 61); 9, Jerel McNeal, (94-41 in 2006, 07, 08, 09); 10, Earl Tatum, (101-15 in 1973, 74, 75, 76).

11, Terry Rand, (48-29 in 1954, 55, 56); 12, Dave Quabius, (26-10 in 1938, 39); 13, Jerome Whitehead, (76-13 in 1976, 77, 78); 14, Tony Smith, (54-60 in 1987, 88, 89, 90); 15, Larry McNeil, (50-8 in 1972, 73); 16, Travis Diener, (91-37 in 2002, 03, 04, 05); 17, Jim McIlvaine, (71-48 in 1991, 92, 93, 94); 18, Lloyd Walton, (76-11 in 1974, 75, 76); 19, Glen (Doc) Rivers, (62-30 in 1981, 82, 83); 20, Bernard Toone, (98-20 in 1976, 77, 78, 79).

21, Dominic James, (44-21 in 2006, 07, 08, 09); 22, Wesley Matthews, (44-21 in 2006, 07, 08, 09); 22, Ed Mullen, (40-14 in 1933, 34, 35); 23, Gary Brell, (54-4 in 1970, 71); 24, Michael Wilson, (83-36 in 1979, 80, 81, 82); 26, Bob Lackey, (53-5 in 1971, 72); 27, Sam Worthen, (40-16 in 1979, 80); 28, Joe Thomas, (73-14 in 1968, 69, 70); 29, Gene Berce, (25-39 in 1945, 47, 48); 30, Steve Novak, (85-41 in 2003, 04, 05, 06).

31, Joseph (Red) Dunn, (52-28 in 1922, 23, 24, 25); 32, Richard Quinn, (52-28 in 1922, 23, 24, 25); 33, Aaron Hutchins, (86-40 in 1995, 96, 97, 98); 34, Allie McGuire, (78-9 in 1971, 72, 73); 35, Lazar Hayward, (74-30 in 2007, 08, 09); 36, Tony Miller, (81-42 in 1992, 93, 94, 95); 37, Walt Mangham, (47-29 in 1958, 59, 60); 38, Amal McCaskill, (84-42 in 1992, 94, 95, 96); 39, Chris Crawford, (90-38 in 1994, 95, 96, 97); 40, Ric Cobb, (50-8 in 1969, 70).

41, Ron Curry, (47-39 in 1991, 92, 93); 42, Marcus Washington, (76-13 in 1972, 73, 74); 43, Cordell Henry, (70-50 in 1999, 2000, 01, 02); 44, Brian Wardle, (64-54 in 1998, 1999, 2000, 01); 45, Damon Key, (71-48 in 1991, 92, 93, 94); 46, Russ Wittberger, (60-43 in 1952, 53, 54, 55); 47, Robert Jackson, (27-6 in 2003); 48, Kerry Trotter, (75-45 in 1983, 84, 85, 86); 49, Roney Eford, (88-37 in 1993, 94, 95, 96); 50, Oliver Lee, (84-31 in 1978, 79, 80, 81).

While Dwight Burke obviously did not focus on stats, he went out with 10 rebounds against Missouri and finishes his career ranked as the 238th best among the 671 all-time players.  Jimmy Butler cracked the Top 200 at 198th, with two seasons left to go.  If anyone wants a list past the Top 50, just email me at jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com and I'll email it right back to you - I don't want to eat up too much space on this post.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/04/mcneal-ranks-as-9th-best-player-in.html

[Lennys Tap]

Complete, interesting and thought provoking. I love anything and everything that gets people talking about Marquette's storied basketball history. One small correction - MU was actually 50-1 when Jim Chones played for them - 28-1 in 1970-71 and 22-0 in 1971-72. He signed with an ABA team late in the season and the team lost 4 of their next 7. Oh what might have been.

[Tugg Speedman]

Seems like Doc Rivers is not getting enough love at #19.  He's behind Diener and Smith.  

I watched Doc run the point to perfection and often feed Dean Marquardt or Brian Nyenhuis a perfect pass only to watch them fumble it out of bounds or have it bounce off their head.  He also had Michael Wilson at the 2, the master of the ill-advised shot. Oliver Lee was busy passing bad checks at department stores instead of the ball and Marc Marotta was overrated and did not get along with Doc because Rivers "stole" his girlfriend.  Not mention such "stars" as Artie Green, Terrell Schlundt, Manny Johnson, Bill Gosse, Dwayne Johnson, Terry Reason, Kerry Trotter, Vic Lazzaretti and Paul Newman.

What I'm saying is Doc was a great player on a bad team.  I think Smith and Diener are getting love because they had better players.

[Sir Lawrence]

Seems like Doc Rivers is not getting enough love at #19.   

I watched Doc run the point to perfection and often feed Dean Marquardt or Brian Nyenhuis a perfect pass only to watch them fumble it out of bounds or have it bounce off their head.

Man, does that bring back some frustrating memories.  Truth be told, however, we've had quite a few big guys that couldn't hold on to a pass. 

[Pardner]

Thanks John.  Love the book and refer to it all the time.  Couple of questions:  1) How does Buzz compare to other 1st year coaches, factoring in the inherited talent of each?  2)  It would be interesting if you could  link with BMA on a project to come up with model predictors on how past recruits/players were ranked coming in versus coming out of MU?

(see BMA's post:  http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=14388.0)

[bamamarquettefan]

Thanks all - I had to update this to get my mind off not being in Detroit this weekend.  Good note on Chones record - I do actually stress in the book that the Ohio State loss was actually the only time Choens lost a game, and run his projected stats if the ABA hadn't taken him.  However, the database is set up to compute based on season stats and records so there is now way to break out part of a season for him (or for DJ getting hurt this year, etc.).  So for purposes of this calculation, a player is considered part of the team for the whole year.

I did cringe when I finally ran the numbers last year and Doc came up 18th - 19th now that McNeal has passed him.  Honestly, I would have weighted assists more heavily in retrospect, but because they were estimated for most of history, I was a little hesitant to do so.  On the other players you mention, five are in the Top 200, led by Mandy Johnson who is ranked 62nd and really did have a great 1985 season.  The others ranked are D. Johnson 84th, Marotta 87th, Green 125th (you are right, much more exciting than effective I'm afraid) and Reason (174th).  Hey, Paul Newman isn't near the top 200, but isn't it fun to tell people that Paul Newman scored 18 points and grabbed 12 rebounds for Marquette in 1983?

Would love to team up on projection ideas.  I noted in the book that two different measures showed MU coming back with 26 or more wins this year, which looked like it would be right on before DJ went down.  I have not done a comparison on Buzz vs. other 1st years, but will take a look at that.

[Tugg Speedman]

Eyeballing your stats (forgive any mistakes)

Wade played with #16 Diener, #30 Novak, #43 Cordell Henry and #47 Robert Jackson
Diener = See above
Tony Smith played with no top 50 players
Doc played with #24 Michael Wilson (and I would argue his play went down in his later years when Doc was on his team) and #50 O. Lee.  Doc played with no top 50 players his last year at MU.
McNeal played with #21 James, #22 Mathews and #35 Hayward
The guys from the 70s all played with each other

Looks like Tony Smith and Doc need to get more love.

[Dienerfor3]

Where does Scott Christopherson rank?

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Tony Smith has been too far down this list from the beginning. McNeal was a fine player, but he was no Tony Smith. If you ask me, Doc Rivers doesn't belong in the top 20.

[tower912]

Yeah, but you hate everybody. 

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

I don't hate Tony Smith. And I think Brian Wardle is also very underappreciated...as is Trevor Powell!!

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I don't hate Tony Smith. And I think Brian Wardle is also very underappreciated...as is Trevor Powell!!

=anyone that played after 1998 is less good than anyone that played for the great Mike deane, who liked to shotgun beers with PRN in the parking lot behind turners.

[bma725]

Thanks John.  Love the book and refer to it all the time.  Couple of questions:  1) How does Buzz compare to other 1st year coaches, factoring in the inherited talent of each?  2)  It would be interesting if you could  link with BMA on a project to come up with model predictors on how past recruits/players were ranked coming in versus coming out of MU?

(see BMA's post:  http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=14388.0)

Problem is, we really only have concrete rankings going back to the late 1980s.  Guys like Butch Lee, Bo Ellis, Dean Meminger etc were considered among the top high school players in the country and were HS All Americans, but there was no such thing as a ranking back then.

[Pardner]

Problem is, we really only have concrete rankings going back to the late 1980s.  Guys like Butch Lee, Bo Ellis, Dean Meminger etc were considered among the top high school players in the country and were HS All Americans, but there was no such thing as a ranking back then.

This would at least provide 20+ years and would be interesting to see statistically how rankings going in represent performance.  Maybe John can find some archived Street & Smith's regional ratings...or there are old copies of Howard Garfinkel's "High School Basketball Index" floating around. 

[bma725]

This would at least provide 20+ years and would be interesting to see statistically how rankings going in represent performance.  Maybe John can find some archived Street & Smith's regional ratings...or there are old copies of Howard Garfinkel's "High School Basketball Index" floating around. 

True.  I'd discussed it with Sugar before and was planning on doing something like that just for the RSCI era players for a Cracked Sidewalks post tomorrow but I can expand it to include the other players as well. Hopefully it will be done by Tuesday, I'm still trying to find Bob Gibbons' 1994 rankings that I saved in a file somewhere before and seem to have lost.

EDIT:  John if you think you can get your hands on some of the other older rankings, I can hold off on the post until you do.

[bamamarquettefan]

I do not have any quick access to those sources, so would love you to look them up.  In fact, if I can get permission from the publisher, now that the season is over and they aren't going to sell any more books, I'd like to get the whole spreadsheet of seasons and careers up so that people can supply additional notes, etc.

I understand the argument on Tony Smith doing it all alone, and I don't believe McNeal will be as good an NBA player as Smith, but I'm not sure he should be rated higher than McNeil.

True he worked with much less talent, so he had less support, but of course that meant he was always the go-to guy expected to put it up.

Yes, his final season scoring was unbelievable.

But you do have to also consider the competition he was going up against.  In four years, Tony Smith went up against TWO ranked teams - UNC his freshman year and Xavier his senior year.  McNeal went up against 28 ranked teams.  It's just really hard to compare the stats of the two with such a difference in competition.

Then you have to ask who the writers from around the country thought was better.  The AP writers picked McNeal as one of the best 10 players in the country year as a 2nd team all-american.  They didn't pick Smith to one of the three All-Americans, they picked him an honorable mention meaning they ranked him somewhere between No. 16 and around 50 if they had as many honorable mentions then as they do now. I'm not saying the sports writers always get it right, but that is a significant difference.

Again, don't take this as a negative about Smith, and I have said I thought he may have come out a little low, but I think McNeal should rank a little higher.

[New Era Warriors]

WHAT A BULL-CRAP ARTICLE BY CRACKED SIDEWALKS! THAT IS PATHETIC!!!!!!! JEREL AS THE 9TH BEST PLAYER?!?!?!? YEAH, TRY TOP 5 CRACKED SIDEWALKS..THA'S WHY YOU GUYS WILL ALWAYS REMAIN THE BOTTOM FEEDERS OF THE MARQUETTE BOARDS AND CREDIBILITY...THAT IS PATHETIC ON YOUR PART! FFFFFFF THE STATS! COME ON GUYS AND OPEN YOUR FRICKIN EYES! JEREL IS ONE OF THE TOP FRICKIN 5 PLAYERS OF ALL TIME AT MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY. AMEN BROTHAS

[Pardner]

WHAT A BULL-CRAP ARTICLE BY CRACKED SIDEWALKS! THAT IS PATHETIC!!!!!!! JEREL AS THE 9TH BEST PLAYER?!?!?!? YEAH, TRY TOP 5 CRACKED SIDEWALKS..THA'S WHY YOU GUYS WILL ALWAYS REMAIN THE BOTTOM FEEDERS OF THE MARQUETTE BOARDS AND CREDIBILITY...THAT IS PATHETIC ON YOUR PART! FFFFFFF THE STATS! COME ON GUYS AND OPEN YOUR FRICKIN EYES! JEREL IS ONE OF THE TOP FRICKIN 5 PLAYERS OF ALL TIME AT MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY. AMEN BROTHAS

Up late "dweeting"?

[romey]

Other than Mr. Wade, I'm guessing Shooter never witnessed any of the other 7 players ranked ahead of McNeal.

[romey]

Just curious -especially with all the talk recently about JUCO transfers.  I noticed Gary Brell and Ric Cobb only played two seasons according to your stats.  Freshmen were not eligible, so I was wondering if these two were transfers, and if so, from where?  I know Brell was German - did he grow up or play there?

[bamamarquettefan]

romey - I'm afraid I don't have an answer on whether they were JUCOs or transfers. My database and expertise is purely the numbers they put up once coming to Marquette. 

As for Shooters complaint that Jerel is clearly one of the Best 5 ever - he is by one count.  He is one of only five MU players ever picked as one of the Top 10 players in the AP All-American vote.  We've had four 1st team all-americans and he is the only 2nd team all-american.

I don't put him 9th purely based on stats, but they are part of the equation, and Kojis and others put up amazing numbers.

Also, by another measure we have had five 1st round draft picks in Lucas, Wade, Meminger, Lee and Ellis, and I argue that we actually had seven 1st round picks because I throw in Chones and Rand.  They didn't release the old draft rounds for the NBA in the 1950s, but I saw an interview with Rand that stated he was the first round pick, so I assume the team told him he was and it makes sense.  Chones was a "2nd round" pick by the NBA when he was already playing for the Nets in the ABA.  He was worth a 2nd round pick knowing they probably wouldn't even be able to sign him, and from the accounts of him as the "best big man in the country," I have to believe he was the Nets first round pick in the ABA draft as Brian Taylor out of Princeton appears to the the only other player who was close to him so I assume he was the 2nd pick.  So with Jerel projected as a 2nd rounder I'd put those 7 in front of him and there were a lot of other 2nd rounders he is competiting with.

No wrap on Jerel - I LOVE the guy and he has secured his place in Marquette's very storied hero - but let's not forget the old heroes either.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

I knew Brell and he was a local as anyone could be. Hell of a funny guy

[77ncaachamps]

Where does Scott Christopherson rank?

Good question, since he DID play with McNeal played with #21 James, #22 Mathews and #35 Hayward.

I guess he just ranks.

[CTWarrior]

For the life of me, I don't see how Jim McIlvaine ended up that far ahead of Damon Key and Tony Miller, both of whom were his contemporaries and more valuable than him.  Heck, in Mac's junior year, facing Bryant "Big Country" Reeves in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, McIlvaine didn't even start!  This is the 17th best player in MU history?  Key played Reeves to a standstill while he was in the game and McIlvaine fouled out with 0 points.  Look at the other NCAA games he played in.  Soph McCaskill was our best center in the sweet 16 run.  I think Jimmy Mac gets way too much credit for basically fleecing Seattle out of huge bucks in the NBA.