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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] Cracked Sidewalks Predictions for 2008-09  (Read 4802 times)

CrackedSidewalksSays

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[Cracked Sidewalks] Cracked Sidewalks Predictions for 2008-09
« on: November 12, 2008, 01:15:03 PM »
Cracked Sidewalks Predictions for 2008-09

Written by: hilltopper91@gmail.com (Kevin Buckley (aka Hilltopper))

After our roundtable discussion about the upcoming season, we wanted to make sure we shared our predictions for the 2008-2009 campaign.  If you recall, we did this last year too (with varying degrees of success).

What are your predictions?  Jump into the MUScoop thread and weigh in.

DateOpponentLocationKevin

Tim

MU92
Steve

Rob

14-NovHouston BaptistHomeWWWWW
17-NovChicago StateHomeWWWWW
22-NovUW-MilwaukeeHomeWWWWW
25-NovTexas SouthernHomeWWWWW
28-NovNorthern IowaHoffman EstatesWWWWW
29-NovDaytonHoffman EstatesWWWLL
2-DecCentral MichiganHomeWWWWW
6-DecUW-MadisonHomeWWWWW
13-DecIPFWHomeWWWWW
16-DecTennesseeNashvilleLLLWL
19-DecWesternCarolinaHomeWWWWW
22-DecNCSURaleighWWLWW
22-DecPresbyterianHomeWWWWW
1-JanVillanovaHomeWWWWW
4-JanCincinnatiHomeWWWWW
7-JanRutgersPiscataway, NJWL
LLW
10-JanWest VirginiaHomeWWWWW
17-JanProvidenceProvidenceWWLWL
24-JanDePaulHomeWWWWW
26-JanNotre DameNotreDame, INLLLWL
31-JanGeorgetownHomeWWWLW
3-FebDePaulChicagoWWWWL
6-FebUSFTampaWWLWW
10-FebVillanovaVillanovaLLLWL
14-FebSt. JohnsHomeWWWWW
17-FebSetonHallHomeWWWWW
21-FebGeorgetownWashington,DCLLLWL
25-FebConnecticutHomeWLLLW
1-MarLouisvilleLouisvilleLLLLL
4-MarPittsburghPittsburghLWLLL
7-MarSyracuseHomeWLWWW
BE Record:13-511-79-913-511-7
Total Record25-623-820-1125-622-9

Explanation of Predictions

Kevin Buckley
25-6? Wasn’t I the guy who was the most pessimistic (and spot on) last year at 22-8? Now I’m the most optimistic of the bunch. Here’s why: MU will run the table at the Bradley Center. DJ, Wes, and Jerel will not let Marquette lose at home during their senior year. We will not lose to any lower-half BE teams at home. Nor will we lose to upper-half BE teams, Syracuse, Georgetown, nor Nova at home. That’s 8. UW and UConn are the two Superbowls at the BC. We aren’t losing them. Not this year. That’s 18 wins. Pick up road wins vs. Northern Iowa, Dayton, NCState, Rutgers, UProv, DePaul, USF, all of which are lower-half of the BE, teams we should beat. That’s 25.

This is the year, we’re not losing to teams we shouldn’t lose to. DJ, Wes, and Jerel won’t let that happen.  This whole season is their sudden death overtime.

Tim Blair
Despite concerns over a poorly constructed roster and how well Buzz Williams will handle the pressure of his new job, I'm going with 23-8 this season. With a veteran backcourt and a head coach who will let his players sense and respond to the action, I expect this bunch will gain in confidence as the year wears on. My gut says 21 wins is the proper 'over/under line' for this upcoming season -- so I'm counting on senior leadership to put MU over the top.

MU92
I think the loss of Barro and Mbakwe is bigger then we'd like to admit.  The seniors will play great, but they're fragile.  Nagging injuries the last few years have kept them out of games and nothing indicates to me they won't happen again.  The Big East may be the toughest league ever this year from 1 to 12.  A lot of MU's success will come off how Hayward and Fulce do.  The other big factor for me is Buzz Williams. This is a total unknown so it's hard for me to say what he will deliver.  The team could win as few as 20 and as many as 26 in my opinion.  I'm settling at 20 wins and 9-9 in the BIG EAST due to the strength of the conference, lack of an experienced big and a head coach who is under the microscope like never before.

Steve Susina
I see an upset by either UNI or Dayton in Hoffman Estates--given the history of the programs, I'm going with Dayton to do so.  Meanwhile, I think MU will make up for it and be ready to take the game against Tennessee.  I'll go on a limb and predict the win at Notre Dame, but based on past history we'll follow it up with a letdown versus Georgetown.  I don't see us taking the game at Pitt this year.

Rob Lowe
My picks are an experiment.  I created a prediction model based on last year's stats and ran some simulations.  The most likely scenario was finishing 11-2 in non-conference and 10-8 in conference play.  However, I'm an optimist so I guessed up.  Want some pessimism on top of your injury news?  My model only gave us a 10% chance of getting more than 12 wins.  (PS - Tim is cheating.  He used my model to set the over/under line.  "gut"... ha!).


http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2008/11/cracked-sidewalks-predictions-for-2008.html
« Last Edit: November 12, 2008, 03:20:33 PM by spiral97 »

denverMU

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Cracked Sidewalks Predictions for 2008-09
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2008, 01:36:41 PM »
Steve, I'm not sure how you have us beating Tennessee, Wisconsin, at ND and then lose to Dayton on a neutral court?  I have us undefeated in Non-conference and 13-5 in the BEAST losing to Prov, Vill, Gtown, Louv, and Pitt.  Very optimistic but I am hoping Otule comes along quickly.

Marquette84

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Cracked Sidewalks Predictions for 2008-09
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2008, 06:24:06 PM »
Steve, I'm not sure how you have us beating Tennessee, Wisconsin, at ND and then lose to Dayton on a neutral court?  I have us undefeated in Non-conference and 13-5 in the BEAST losing to Prov, Vill, Gtown, Louv, and Pitt.  Very optimistic but I am hoping Otule comes along quickly.

For me it comes down to trying to guess where the upsets will occur. 

Most teams wind up winning some they should lose, and losing some they shoudl win.  I think the fun with these types of predictions is trying to make the best guess as to where the upsets will occur--sort of like beating Duke, then losing to North Dakota State in the same season. 
 
In general, I think we're a better team than Dayton.  However, in this one-game matchup I have three concerns:

1.  Dayton has a chip over being relegated to the A10.  Look at what they did to Pitt last season.
2.  In prior seasons, MU has tended to get complacent during the non-conference season. Upsets are not unheard of.
3.   MU is Dayton's top non-conference game--and may well be their top game overall.  Dayton is an afterthought for MU in relation to the Big East slate, Tennesse and Wisconsin (and perhaps even NC State).

If I had to pick a non-conference upset against us, it would be this game.

 

Mayor McCheese

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Cracked Sidewalks Predictions for 2008-09
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2008, 08:18:36 PM »
MU92 has Marquette winning 1 road game all year.  There is no way Marquette and those three seniors will allow them to be completely dominated all year on the road.  9-9 in the conference will NOT happen.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/NCAA/dayone&sportCat=ncb

pure genius stuff by Bill Simmons, remember to read day 2

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Cracked Sidewalks Predictions for 2008-09
« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2008, 09:45:09 AM »
MU92 has Marquette winning 1 road game all year.  There is no way Marquette and those three seniors will allow them to be completely dominated all year on the road.  9-9 in the conference will NOT happen.

That's why they are predictions.  I said in those predictions we could go 20 wins to 26 wins.  We've struggled against South Florida every year, played poorly at Rutgers, those are the two most winnable road games in my opinion.  Just a prediction.  You're right, with these seniors we shouldn't lose that many road games, but there are other unknowns from the coach on down that have me skeptical right now.