[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette's Q1 Gauntlet

[MU82]

You think this team could get beat by anybody? I think that's a stretch.

Said Virginia fans in 2018.

But seriously, I know what you're saying. Technically, we could get beat by anybody, but the odds are so long that 14 or even 13 would have a chance against us, let alone "anybody."

But fans of any top-4 seed could say the same.

[Herman Cain]

Great opportunity for MU to build resume tomorrow . This team is built  differently than years past and is going to rise to the challenge .

Looking forward to The Husky game with great anticipation .

[lawdog77]

We will see if the February Fade is an annual chronic issue or it is a F'em item of the past.
Good luck Boys.

It's actually more of a March Malaise. Last week of the regular season, Big East tourney, and NCAA.

[BallBoy]

We will see if the February Fade is an annual chronic issue or it is a F'em item of the past.
Good luck Boys.

I don't think the Feb fade is the same as other years. This year we are seeing everyone's best because we are one of the last opportunities for them to get noticed. We got Nova with Moore's second game back.

I think you are also seeing what I mentioned a few weeks ago. People know and have seen how to play us. We need to make the next adjustment. Kolek needs to figure out how to penetrate going to his right. Oso needs to figure out how to get people to not play the back door cut. We need to play better defense against the three.

Thad and Butler said it after our game. They knew based on how we played defense they were going to get a lot of open threes after watching the Nova game.

In years past, I think key players were getting worn down and we didn't have the talent to cover for it or they shutdown an option and we didn't have the team to adjust. This year we have more options there are 5 guys who could legit go for 28pt+ any given night and a few other who could punch above their weight class.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Today, I played around with the Teamcast feature on T Rank.  Here were the results.

0 wins
10 seed

1 win
7 seed

2 wins
6 seed

3 wins
5 seed

4 wins
Last 4 seed

5 wins
Last 3 seed

6 wins
3 seed

7 wins
Last 2 seed

I didn't simulate conference tournaments, but this gives a pretty good idea of where on the S-curve Marquette would be at the end of the regular season.

[wisblue]

You think this team could get beat by anybody? I think that's a stretch.

Literally what I said was "ALMOST anybody IN THE NCAA FIELD". Considering that MU is probably looking at a seed in the 3-6 range, depending on what they do the rest of the way, a 14 seed is probably the lowest they will be playing. So, yes, I think they could get beat by any of those teams.

Historically, 13 seeds have won about 20% of their first round games against 4 seeds, and 14 seeds have won about 15% against 3 seeds.

[wisblue]

Today, I played around with the Teamcast feature on T Rank.  Here were the results.

0 wins
10 seed

1 win
7 seed

2 wins
6 seed

3 wins
5 seed

4 wins
Last 4 seed

5 wins
Last 3 seed

6 wins
3 seed

7 wins
Last 2 seed

I didn't simulate conference tournaments, but this gives a pretty good idea of where on the S-curve Marquette would be at the end of the regular season.

Considering the low probability that MU will go 7-0, 0-7, or 1-6 the rest of the way, that is consistent with my general expectation that MU will end up with a seed in the 3-6 range, and 3-5 probably accounts for the fattest part of that.

Worse than a 4-3 finish would qualify as a February Fade, and I'd rather not think about how disappointing that would be.

[brewcity77]

Side note, come on! Are your rules that strict on the mid majors that you couldn't bump Milwaukee over Youngstown?   

Using the NET allows for more consistency of the 12-16 lines. And when it comes to the league tournament, Youngstown will be a heavy home favorite & favored in the neutral court semis and final.

Though after last night, have to imagine this is less of a talking point