Marquette Defense

[Badgerhater]

MU will finish 7-11 in conference.  The best wins will be two against either Providence, Xavier or Hall.  There will also a loss against G-Town, DePaul or St John's.

You can't routinely give up 40-50 points a half in this league and expect to do much.

[GoldenDieners32]

MU will finish 7-11 in conference.  The best wins will be two against either Providence, Xavier or Hall.  There will also a loss against G-Town, DePaul or St John's.

You can't routinely give up 40-50 points a half in this league and expect to do much.

i have confidence in wojo. I think this team will buy in to playing some D

[mu03eng]

i have confidence in wojo. I think this team will buy in to playing some D

What gives you that confidence? I want to believe, but I'm not convinced he can get them to play the style he wants. If he can't, will he be able to switch to a style that they can/will do?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I look at it differently than the A/B games, and rather as there being three tiers in the league:

Tier 1: Villanova, Creighton, Butler

Tier 2: Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall

Tier 3: Georgetown, DePaul, St. John's

Go 6-0 against Tier 3, 3-3 against Tier 2, and 1-5 against Tier 1 and you get to 10 wins.

As far as A/B games, Tier 3 has one A game (@ GT) and two B games (GT, @ SJU). Tier 2 has four A games (XU, @ XU, @ SHU, @ PC). Tier 3 has six A games. I think we can beat Georgetown away, Xavier at home, and get 2/3 against Villanova, Creighton, and Butler at the BC.

I see 4 tiers personally

Tier 1: Creighton and Nova (Unbeatable)
Tier 2: Butler and Xavier (Good but beatable)
Tier 3: Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown (Average but loseable)
Tier 4: St. John's and Depaul (Bad)

How I see us doing:
Tier 1: 0-4
Tier 2: 1-3
Tier 3: 4-2
Tier 5: 4-0

I think the jury is still out on Xavier and Butler. I feel 1-3 right now but I could see us stealing another game in there. We also seem to have Providence's number. If we can sweep them and Georgetown and steal one against Seton Hall, that would get us to 10.

I don't see us having a prayer to beat Nova or Creighton.

Unfortunately, I could see us dropping 1 to St. John's or Depaul. That happens and its over.

[Lennys Tap]

Tier 1: Creighton and Nova (Unbeatable)


Unfortunately, I could see us dropping 1 to St. John's or Depaul. That happens and its over.

Creighton and Villanova are no more "unbeatable" for us than we are for DePaul and St. Johns.

[brewcity77]

Creighton and Villanova are no more "unbeatable" for us than we are for DePaul and St. Johns.

I don't think either of them are unbeatable, maybe I'm a homer but I think we could steal one from either at home. That said, I think we will have a tougher time with Creighton. Just too strong inside with Patton and Huff. Villanova can be drawn into a three-point shooting contest. If we happen to be the hotter team beyond the arc, beating them is possible.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Creighton and Villanova are no more "unbeatable" for us than we are for DePaul and St. Johns.

Do I really need to spell out that by "unbeatable" I mean "they are very good and will beat us 9 out of 10 times."

[brewcity77]

Do I really need to spell out that by "unbeatable" I mean "they are very good and will beat us 9 out of 10 times."

Well...to be fair, as we play them four times, that gives us about a 40% chance of getting a game off one of them.

[4everwarriors]

Why don't we just fookin' chuck dis season and start da off season threads right now, hey?

[Dr. Blackheart]

Preseason, MU was picked for 7th place.  Seems about right with their body of work so far.  To hit the NCAAs, they need to hit 5th, which means team defense needs to improve markedly. In a span over the past two seasons, Wojo's teams haven't shown it can defend the paint versus Top 60 teams when in the man. 

That is the most disconcerting, especially as his defense is designed to push the perimeter due to the unbalanced roster. The ability to recover and rotate is not there.  Team defense is an attitude, but if protecting the paint is not the number one priority, you get a mediocre result, which is a shame with this offense.

"Who plays here?  The toughest"

<a href="https://youtu.be/_nf7SuRwIfE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://youtu.be/_nf7SuRwIfE</a>

[jsglow]

You never, ever give up the baseline. Period. 

Back in the day, if you did, you ran laps till you puked. 

Never, ever.

I know.  I scream that every time we don't beat the man to the spot and pick up a bad foul.

[WarriorFan]

Next year we'll start to have those guys when we add Cain, John, and Eke. Come 2018-19 I think we'll have the players, the length, and the athleticism to play the way Wojo wants to play. I think he is sticking with his style now because he wants guys like Hauser, Howard, Cheatham, Carter, and Heldt, all of whom will be key members of that team, to be schooled in this style of play rather than just putting a band-aid on for now. I think he has a lot more comfort than Buzz ever did, which is why he can keep drilling this style that will pay off in 2-3 years rather than changing the system annually to suit the talent. I understand the logic that sticking with man will help these kids become better defenders in the future, but it does make it harder to stomach now.

THIS
... is also why Hauser was guarding Hayes.  Not for this game, but for the experience he gains which will be valuable for the next 3.5 years.

[muwarrior69]

I see 4 tiers personally

Tier 1: Creighton and Nova (Unbeatable)
Tier 2: Butler and Xavier (Good but beatable)
Tier 3: Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown (Average but loseable)
Tier 4: St. John's and Depaul (Bad)

How I see us doing:
Tier 1: 0-4
Tier 2: 1-3
Tier 3: 4-2
Tier 5: 4-0

I think the jury is still out on Xavier and Butler. I feel 1-3 right now but I could see us stealing another game in there. We also seem to have Providence's number. If we can sweep them and Georgetown and steal one against Seton Hall, that would get us to 10.

I don't see us having a prayer to beat Nova or Creighton.

Unfortunately, I could see us dropping 1 to St. John's or Depaul. That happens and its over.

I would swap DePaul and Gtown and MU would be in Tier 3 average but loseable.

[Henry Sugar]

MU currently ranks 5th in the conference right now. They are behind Nova, Creighton, X, and Butler. I place them in the same group as SHU, PC, and Georgetown. They are well ahead of SJU and DPU.

The defense is not good, but the offense is good enough to keep us in most games. The offense is currently at an elite level (top 20). MU has the profile of a team that *should* win their first NCAA game and *could* make the S16.

Also, since there is so much discussion of prediction, I'm working on some monte carlo simulations for the team. Pomeroy's switch to Adjusted Efficiency Margin rankings instead of pythagorean rankings means I have to redo the prediction model.

[Lennys Tap]

Do I really need to spell out that by "unbeatable" I mean "they are very good and will beat us 9 out of 10 times."

Nice "sigh" - an homage to Chico?

But seriously, we will be no more (likely less) of a home underdog to Nova and Creighton than DePaul and St. Johns will be to us.

[mu03eng]

MU currently ranks 5th in the conference right now. They are behind Nova, Creighton, X, and Butler. I place them in the same group as SHU, PC, and Georgetown. They are well ahead of SJU and DPU.

The defense is not good, but the offense is good enough to keep us in most games. The offense is currently at an elite level (top 20). MU has the profile of a team that *should* win their first NCAA game and *could* make the S16.

Also, since there is so much discussion of prediction, I'm working on some monte carlo simulations for the team. Pomeroy's switch to Adjusted Efficiency Margin rankings instead of pythagorean rankings means I have to redo the prediction model.

When I read the words "Monte Carlo Simulation"

[Benny B]

When I read the words "Monte Carlo Simulation"

Hmmm.... MCSes makes me think of bacon, too.  Get out of my head.