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27-10

Author Topic: SJU thoughts  (Read 11860 times)

bilsu

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Re: SJU thoughts
« Reply #75 on: January 25, 2016, 10:26:29 PM »
Unfortunately I find this patently false. "Consistenly" implies it's the norm. Opponents have attempted 118 more FG's than us. We've tried 131 more FT's.. if we assume 47.5% x 131 = we're talking 62 possessions, or more than half of the difference is due to us getting to the line - which is a great thing as a free throw trip represents a high-ppp...

MU's turnovers are essentially flat with their opponents this season. Defensive rebounding does play a role, but part of our issue (albeit we need better DR from everyone but the Ellenson brothers) in DR% is that it's diluted by the fact that our opponents don't go to the line a lot and do not miss a lot when they get there. Meanwhile, we get to the line a lot more a miss a bit more. The result is that there are more free throw miss opportunities for the other team than there are for us... and that's one way to raise your DR% without being especially good at DR%... roughly... a defense gets 85% of missed free throws by the other team... and 66% of missed field goals..

Despite being blown out a few times, MU still holds a .06 ppp advantage over its opponents this year.

Absolutely need to take an advantage in the area of turnovers and need to get better at rebounding.. but by itself, teams taking more shots than us isn't the major problem and over half of it is due to a good thing (us going to the line more often than the other team)...
You are comparing season statistics(mostly bunnies) and not Big East statistics. The statistics are greatly diffeeernt, if you consider only Big East games.

Jay Bee

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Re: SJU thoughts
« Reply #76 on: January 26, 2016, 07:34:32 AM »
You are comparing season statistics(mostly bunnies) and not Big East statistics. The statistics are greatly diffeeernt, if you consider only Big East games.

He said 'consistently,' not 'in the Big East only...

If we look at only Big East games, there are still problems with the claims..

FGA's = - 39
+/- turnovers = only -6
So.. is it defensive rebounding? No. MU's defensive rebounding allows the opp to get 31.8% of its opportunities. Not wildly out of whack.

What is an issue is offensive rebounding, where MU is only collecting 22.7% of its opportunities.

As mentioned in an SJU post, of Henry's 18 boards, only 1 was offensive. His OR% in conference play is ~6%. Other than the Ellensons and Luke, no one on this team who gets minutes has rebounded the o-boards all season.


Thanks for ruining summer, Canada.

g0lden3agle

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Re: SJU thoughts
« Reply #77 on: January 26, 2016, 07:50:53 AM »
He said 'consistently,' not 'in the Big East only...

If we look at only Big East games, there are still problems with the claims..

FGA's = - 39
+/- turnovers = only -6
So.. is it defensive rebounding? No. MU's defensive rebounding allows the opp to get 31.8% of its opportunities. Not wildly out of whack.

What is an issue is offensive rebounding, where MU is only collecting 22.7% of its opportunities.

As mentioned in an SJU post, of Henry's 18 boards, only 1 was offensive. His OR% in conference play is ~6%. Other than the Ellensons and Luke, no one on this team who gets minutes has rebounded the o-boards all season.

Is this by design?  Would it kill us to have a little more effort on the offensive glass, possibly sacrificing more fast break points?

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: SJU thoughts
« Reply #78 on: January 26, 2016, 08:23:11 AM »
Is this by design?  Would it kill us to have a little more effort on the offensive glass, possibly sacrificing more fast break points?

I dont think its about getting back on d. I think its about protecting the bigs from early foul trouble.
TAMU

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We R Final Four

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Re: SJU thoughts
« Reply #79 on: January 26, 2016, 09:56:34 AM »
Luke has been in early foul trouble the last two games.  He gets called on an arm bar push off in the post and he seems to get called for the Matt Heldt/Chris Otule moving screen at 35' from the hoop.

With those things working against him, and he doesn't clean that up, Luke cannot afford to give a foul attempting an offen. rebound.
This needs to be Sandy or Wally, IMO

 

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