Markel Starks offers template for JJJ and others

[jesmu84]

How so?  Put an all-american caliber PG on this team along with Davante, Mayo, Jamil, Burton?  HUGE stretch..especially considering team reached Elite 8 with a mediocre PG last year?

Because Buzz won't play anyone who can score that much.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I wouldn't call us a final four lock. But I would call us a tournament lock and a final four contender

[MU82]

A Georgetown team with the eventual No. 3 pick in the draft (Porter) AND Starks AND Smith-Rivera lost in the first round last year to Fla. Gulf Coast. Just a year earlier, a Duke team loaded with future NBA players lost in the first round to Lehigh. Hell, a Marquette team with three future pros, including one of the superstars of his generation, almost lost to Holy Cross in the first round in 2003.

So no,  I don't think adding Starks to this year's MU team would have made us a Final Four lock.

But yes, I'd trade Derrick for Starks (or any of dozens upon dozens of other college PGs) and take my chances.

It isn't necessary to use hyperbole to make a point.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It isn't necessary to use hyperbole to make a point.

A piece of wisdom that is lost on many a scooper

[NersEllenson]

A Georgetown team with the eventual No. 3 pick in the draft (Porter) AND Starks AND Smith-Rivera lost in the first round last year to Fla. Gulf Coast. Just a year earlier, a Duke team loaded with future NBA players lost in the first round to Lehigh. Hell, a Marquette team with three future pros, including one of the superstars of his generation, almost lost to Holy Cross in the first round in 2003.

So no,  I don't think adding Starks to this year's MU team would have made us a Final Four lock.

But yes, I'd trade Derrick for Starks (or any of dozens upon dozens of other college PGs) and take my chances.

It isn't necessary to use hyperbole to make a point.

Good point...yet as we saw FGCU was a pretty dang good team...and we'd be adding Starks or Cotton to team that did advance to Elite 8 - and returned all but 3 guys - and you are trading out one of the 3 - Junior - for 2 guys who are a lot better...

But yes, I agree it could have been a bit of hyperbole to say LOCK...but I'd put the chances at 80+%...

[Lennys Tap]

Good point...yet as we saw FGCU was a pretty dang good team...and we'd be adding Starks or Cotton to team that did advance to Elite 8 - and returned all but 3 guys - and you are trading out one of the 3 - Junior - for 2 guys who are a lot better...

But yes, I agree it could have been a bit of hyperbole to say LOCK...but I'd put the chances at 80+%...

You are obviously unfamiliar with the laws of probability. To figure out a teams chances of winning 4 straight games to reach the Final Four one multiplies their probability to win game 1 by the probability to win game 2 by the probability to win game 3 by the probability to win game 4. If a team had a 94% chance to win each of the 4 games (never gonna happen, teams are never that big a favorite in Sweet 16 or Elite 8 games) their probability (.94x.94x.94x.94) would be approximately 78.08%. The #1 seed in this year's tournament will almost assuredly have significantly less than a 50% chance of making the Final Four. Adding a non NBA point guard to a group of non NBA players would not result in MU being the most prohibitive favorite in the history of the NCAA tournament (which is what it would take to be an 80% lock). Your math is just way,way off.

We did make the Elite 8 last year, but the odds against us  were almost 10-1. We had a 70% chance to beat Davidson, a 55% chance against Butler and (at most) a 30% against Miami. .7x.55x.3 = 10.65% chance of winning all three.

Given your penchant for turning longshots into locks, I'm feeling pretty good about our two rather substantial wagers

[mattyv1908]

You are obviously unfamiliar with the laws of probability. To figure out a teams chances of winning 4 straight games to reach the Final Four one multiplies their probability to win game 1 by the probability to win game 2 by the probability to win game 3 by the probability to win game 4. If a team had a 94% chance to win each of the 4 games (never gonna happen, teams are never that big a favorite in Sweet 16 or Elite 8 games) their probability (.94x.94x.94x.94) would be approximately 78.08%. The #1 seed in this year's tournament will almost assuredly have significantly less than a 50% chance of making the Final Four. Adding a non NBA point guard to a group of non NBA players would not result in MU being the most prohibitive favorite in the history of the NCAA tournament (which is what it would take to be an 80% lock). Your math is just way,way off.

We did make the Elite 8 last year, but the odds against us  were almost 10-1. We had a 70% chance to beat Davidson, a 55% chance against Butler and (at most) a 30% against Miami. .7x.55x.3 = 10.65% chance of winning all three.

Given your penchant for turning longshots into locks, I'm feeling pretty good about our two rather substantial wagers

You're absolutely correct with your math, but let's not pretend like there was any NBA talent on last year's roster either.

Vander Blue is not NBA material over the long haul.  At this point I'd still say Jamil with his length and size has a better chance to not get drafted and play himself onto an NBA roster other than a 10 day call up than Blue.

Wes and Jimmy both have size that Vander lacks and are much better shooters.  In the NBA you have many 6'3" to 6'5" guys playing PG.

[jesmu84]

You're absolutely correct with your math, but let's not pretend like there was any NBA talent on last year's roster either.

Vander Blue is not NBA material over the long haul.  At this point I'd still say Jamil with his length and size has a better chance to not get drafted and play himself onto an NBA roster other than a 10 day call up than Blue.

Wes and Jimmy both have size that Vander lacks and are much better shooters.  In the NBA you have many 6'3" to 6'5" guys playing PG.

depends how you define "nba talent". players drafted? players who got a contract? players who made a roster? players who played in a game? players who played in a regular season game?

[Lennys Tap]

You're absolutely correct with your math, but let's not pretend like there was any NBA talent on last year's roster either.

Vander Blue is not NBA material over the long haul.  At this point I'd still say Jamil with his length and size has a better chance to not get drafted and play himself onto an NBA roster other than a 10 day call up than Blue.

Wes and Jimmy both have size that Vander lacks and are much better shooters.  In the NBA you have many 6'3" to 6'5" guys playing PG.

I don't think I said anything about NBA talent on last year's team, though I do think that Vander has already outdone DJ Newbill's NBA future with his one 10 day contract.

[NersEllenson]

You are obviously unfamiliar with the laws of probability. To figure out a teams chances of winning 4 straight games to reach the Final Four one multiplies their probability to win game 1 by the probability to win game 2 by the probability to win game 3 by the probability to win game 4. If a team had a 94% chance to win each of the 4 games (never gonna happen, teams are never that big a favorite in Sweet 16 or Elite 8 games) their probability (.94x.94x.94x.94) would be approximately 78.08%. The #1 seed in this year's tournament will almost assuredly have significantly less than a 50% chance of making the Final Four. Adding a non NBA point guard to a group of non NBA players would not result in MU being the most prohibitive favorite in the history of the NCAA tournament (which is what it would take to be an 80% lock). Your math is just way,way off.

We did make the Elite 8 last year, but the odds against us  were almost 10-1. We had a 70% chance to beat Davidson, a 55% chance against Butler and (at most) a 30% against Miami. .7x.55x.3 = 10.65% chance of winning all three.

Given your penchant for turning longshots into locks, I'm feeling pretty good about our two rather substantial wagers

Thanks for the math lesson Lenny - it wasn't my strong suit.  Your point is well made.  LOCK was too strong of word, yet I really would like this team's chances with a guy like Cotton on it.

And got a good laugh out of your last sentence.  Well played.  Should be interesting to see how that plays out..

[MU82]

Thanks for the math lesson Lenny - it wasn't my strong suit.  Your point is well made.  LOCK was too strong of word, yet I really would like this team's chances with a guy like Cotton on it.

Thanks for admitting the error of your ways, and I do agree with your general thesis that a superior PG would have meant the world to this team.

Also thanks for taking a thread about JJJ and the other young guards and turning it into another opportunity to bash Derrick. It was an important step because there aren't quite enough Derrick-bashing threads out there.

[NersEllenson]

Thanks for admitting the error of your ways, and I do agree with your general thesis that a superior PG would have meant the world to this team.

Also thanks for taking a thread about JJJ and the other young guards and turning it into another opportunity to bash Derrick. It was an important step because there aren't quite enough Derrick-bashing threads out there.

Come on man...I didn't hijack the thread into the PG discussion...it went there on Post number 2...and as with most threads they evolve all over the place..

But...to comment on your original post/point - I do think it is a very good point to have made, and I sure hope all of the freshman see it through at MU, as think they could evolve into a VERY good team.  It doesn't happen immediately for every 4-5 star recruit...just think JJJ's case is an interesting one, as he's really gotten buried on the bench, and I'm sure he had higher expectations coming into MU...and when you also are sitting behind a guy, Jake, who you are more talented than, overall - that can be a bitter pill to swallow...

[jesmu84]

Come on man...I didn't hijack the thread into the PG discussion...it went there on Post number 2...and as with most threads they evolve all over the place..

But...to comment on your original post/point - I do think it is a very good point to have made, and I sure hope all of the freshman see it through at MU, as think they could evolve into a VERY good team.  It doesn't happen immediately for every 4-5 star recruit...just think JJJ's case is an interesting one, as he's really gotten buried on the bench, and I'm sure he had higher expectations coming into MU...and when you also are sitting behind a guy, Jake, who you are more talented than, overall - that can be a bitter pill to swallow...

I think it's like other positions, situations on the team. JJJ might be more talented now, definitely more potential than Jake, but Jake has more understanding and plays better within Buzz's system.

Is that Buzz's fault for not bringing JJJ along enough? Maybe. Is it JJJ's fault for not understanding quick enough? Maybe. Either way, JJJ will be a MUCH better player than Jake, eventually.

[The Equalizer]

Georgetown's stud guard was a Scout 4-star who hardly played as a freshman (9.7 mpg). Each succeeding year he played more, scored more, contributed more. Turned himself into a heck of a college guard.

There are plenty of similar examples, but I had to look up Starks after I saw Raftery's pregame interview of him in which Starks' career development was highlighted.

I like to think JJJ, Duane, Dawson and even Burton can develop like this, too.

Starks' freshman year he came in ranked 94th in RSCI and was the backup to a McDonalds All American (Chris Wright, 28th in the RSCI).  His playing time generally increased toward the end of the season (averaging 17 mpg in the last 5 games of the season), showing some confidence he was ready to step up.

JJJ was the #30 in RSCI, playing behind a former walk-on transfer from a low-major.  I'm not sure that his end of season play (4 DNPs in the last 7 games and 1.6 mpg in the 3 games in which he did play) inspires the same sense of confidence that he's ready to make a big leap.

[dgies9156]

IDK, Bryce Cotton and Semaj Christon make compelling cases as well

That kind of trade would also require several first round picks and cash considerations

Probably would cost us Diamond Stone!

[MU82]

Starks' freshman year he came in ranked 94th in RSCI and was the backup to a McDonalds All American (Chris Wright, 28th in the RSCI).  His playing time generally increased toward the end of the season (averaging 17 mpg in the last 5 games of the season), showing some confidence he was ready to step up.

JJJ was the #30 in RSCI, playing behind a former walk-on transfer from a low-major.  I'm not sure that his end of season play (4 DNPs in the last 7 games and 1.6 mpg in the 3 games in which he did play) inspires the same sense of confidence that he's ready to make a big leap.

Good info.

Still, the point stands that Starks didn't walk right in and become a stud.

I agree that JJJ might be disappointed, and he might have legit reason to be. I've generally defended Buzz, but his burying of JJJ has been a real head-scratcher to me, as have some of his other PT decisions.

As I've said in other threads, if Jake is making 3s as he did against GT, OK, ride the hot hand and let him play big minutes. But when Jake is throwing bricks and the team is falling behind, it would seem time to give JJJ at least a few minutes.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Markel went to Georgetown Prep. He dreamed of playing at Georgetown his entire life. I wouldn't be surprised if no one else bothered to offer since he was always a lock for Georgetown. He was decently rated at points in his high school career but he committed to us and his stock dropped as a result.

So Hoya, is there any player on our roster you'd like to see on Georgetown roster?

[Dawson Rental]

College is a point guard league, our point guard has gotten burned by every point guard he is against.  People talk about his D, sure it might be fine, but against good points the scoring is 25 for the other team and 4 or 5 points for Derrick.  Change that around and we would be a good team.  Secondly, if Dawson D is not that good, so maybe the point would get 28 against him, but he would score 10-12 so the imbalance would be better playing Dawson.

So, your argument is that lost offensive possessions due to turnovers are immaterial?

[Dawson Rental]

All due respect Lenny - I think you greatly undervalue, the value of a great point guard - or even just a good one.  We made the Elite 8 last year with the same cast minus Blue, Cadougan and Lockett.  Mayo essentially has replaced what Blue did last year - see new thread post.  Burton would be better than anyone who came off the bench last year.  Starks or Cotton would be a very big upgrade from Cadougan.  Lockett, drove most everyone here crazy for 3/4s of the season - and was a glue guy. 

My post was dead serious.  I just don't think you realize how much Derrick's limitations have handicapped the other 4 guys on the floor with him - mostly DAvante, Jamil, but also Todd and Jake.

So, how do you explain Georgetown being in seventh place in the Big East, then?

[NersEllenson]

So, how do you explain Georgetown being in seventh place in the Big East, then?

They sure as hell don't have their typical, signature big man....put Gardner on GTown and they are an absolute nightmare.  They also have had notable injuries and one of their better players being ineligible.

BUT - They still have been able to get the best out of conference wins of any Big East School....and as a result, will likely get the 4th bid out of Big East, and we will be sitting at home having beat them twice.

[MU82]

They sure as hell don't have their typical, signature big man....put Gardner on GTown and they are an absolute nightmare.  They also have had notable injuries and one of their better players being ineligible.

BUT - They still have been able to get the best out of conference wins of any Big East School....and as a result, will likely get the 4th bid out of Big East, and we will be sitting at home having beat them twice.

Great answer, Ners.

QB is the most important position in the NFL, but there have been many teams that have had great QBs and have had trouble winning because they didn't have enough talent around the QBs. That doesn't mean it's unimportant to have a great QB.

Same is true of PG. If I could build a college team, I'd start with the very best PG I could get and build around him. I don't think this is a revolutionary theory!