How much does Buzz play Freshmen? (a response to PT)

[Henry Sugar]

Today was the first time I saw the PT article looking at how much Buzz plays freshmen.

http://painttouches.com/2013/10/18/how-much-do-freshman-play-for-buzz-williams/

I was familiar with the Hanner article, and found it noteworthy that Hanner discovered nobody plays freshmen less than Buzz. It was with some surprise that I read the PT article that claimed to disprove the notion about Buzz. Was it possible that Buzz plays freshmen more than we think?

However, I had a hard time initially replicating Hanner's results (from Hanner or from PT). To start with, it was a surprise that Hanner calculated only 8% when none of the freshmen appeared even close to 8%. WTH? Of course, this made me question if the comparison between PT and the Hanner results was accurate. Was it a comparison of apples to oranges?

First, I decided on a data set. My decision was to use the Pomeroy %Min data for each team. After looking through the team years on the ESPN website and then Pomeroy, I decided on Pomeroy because he removes scrub players from his info. In other words, using Pomeroy eliminates me from having to figure out the minutes for some freshman from Syracuse in 2010 that I've never heard of. I started with the 2010-2014 seasons because Buzz played zero freshmen in 2009.

Second, I tried to determine how the %Min from Pomeroy mapped to ESPN data. Here is the key. Pomeroy's %Min numbers add up to approximately 500%! Now, it's not exactly 500% because of the previously mentioned scrub minutes, but they're close. For example, in 2010, Pomeroy says that Maymon played 10.7% of minutes. Maymon played 147 minutes out of a total of 6900 team minutes, or 2.14%.  Divide 10.7% of minutes by 5 and you get 2.14%.

Of course, the pushback is that this doesn't consider Maymon was only on the team for 9 games. Does this undercount how much he was playing? Yes, but there's no other way to baseline for injuries, coach DNPs. Not to mention that after Maymon left there were zero freshmen contributors in the 2009-2010 season. Finally, if we make exceptions for MU we need to do the same for other programs.

Finally, I looked at five teams, including Marquette. Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, and Kentucky. I took each of the %Min for each freshman that year, divided it by five, and then added up the combined %Min for all freshmen. For example, here is the 2014 %Min by Freshmen for Marquette



Here is the average for each team from 2010-2014. Marquette is clearly the lowest average, but they aren't that far off from ND, UL, and Cuse. Of course, I didn't use the data from 2009 (0% freshmen min), but just note that including that would have made the Buzz Williams number closer to 8%...



Here is what it looks like on a yearly basis. Clearly, Kentucky is at an entirely different level. Again, MU is pretty close to the other teams.



Here is the same view without Kentucky.  Marquette has the fewest freshmen minutes in three of five years and is #2 in the other two. Note that MU's freshmen are getting some legit minutes this year.



Last, here is the maximum minutes by a freshman over the past 4.5 years. I think this is perhaps the most interesting view, because unlike the other teams, it shows that there has never been a player getting significant minutes as a freshman.



In summary, I think that this data still shows Buzz plays freshmen less than other coaches. However, it was for only five teams and I'd love to see if someone could find a coach that plays freshmen less (perhaps Stew Morrill or Lon Kruger). Beyond that, although Buzz plays his freshmen less, they are not that far off from the other teams. Finally, I do think it is interesting that there is yet to be a high minutes freshman for Buzz.

(I should have probably put this on Cracked Sidewalks, but unnatural carnal knowledge it)

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Is there a way to account for "first year players"?

Jae, Buycks and DJO all played a lot in their first year(s).

Buzz's JUCO usage might account for some of the lower frosh. #'s.

[Henry Sugar]

Is there a way to account for "first year players"?

Jae, Buycks and DJO all played a lot in their first year(s).

Buzz's JUCO usage might account for some of the lower frosh. #'s.

The question of "first year players" doesn't interest me. No one questions that Buzz has been successful with JUCO players and they've played a lot.

However, Buzz's track record with freshmen players /is/ interesting to me.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Thanks Sugar, you always bring a well-reasoned analysis to the table.

Just wondering if I'm reading this "Freshman Minutes" calculation wrong. Blue played ~20 mpg freshman year. Shouldn't that equate to a % of Frosh Min number ~50%, rather than the 9.46% you show here?

[Wojo'sMojo]

I would think this has to be a negative when it comes to recruiting. With all the AAU tournaments and such I think freshman come in more prepared than they used to and think the learning curve is far less than it used to be. This somewhat troubles me and think it could be used against us in the ultra competitive recruiting world.

[Henry Sugar]

Thanks Sugar, you always bring a well-reasoned analysis to the table.

Just wondering if I'm reading this "Freshman Minutes" calculation wrong. Blue played ~20 mpg freshman year. Shouldn't that equate to a % of Frosh Min number ~50%, rather than the 9.46% you show here?

That ~20 mpg is the 47% of Min in the last table. Divide by five to get his contribution to a starting five (9.46%). It's that "divide by five" that is the key difference between Hanner's number and the PT analysis.

[Daniel]

There are numerous teams with freshmen playing major minutes. They are not all 5 star guys.  But Buzz has his system - I can't pretend to understand or recommend a different one.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

The question of "first year players" doesn't interest me. No one questions that Buzz has been successful with JUCO players and they've played a lot.

However, Buzz's track record with freshmen players /is/ interesting to me.

I don't say the JUCO thing as a defense of Buzz or his rotation, I'm just trying to get a grip on how/why MU's percentage is lower.

If MU is bringing in more JUCO players than (insert school), it might account for the reduced role of frosh. I have no idea how to quantify that though... so maybe I'm wrong.

Iowa St. brings in a lot of transfers. Maybe I'll dig up some numbers and see what that looks like.

[MerrittsMustache]

The question of "first year players" doesn't interest me. No one questions that Buzz has been successful with JUCO players and they've played a lot.

However, Buzz's track record with freshmen players /is/ interesting to me.

It SHOULD be worth mentioning that Buzz's first-year JUCO players (and a transfer) have taken a bulk of the minutes that may have otherwise been reserved for freshman. It's not telling the whole story by only looking at freshmen. It's also worth noting that Cadougan was expected to see decent minutes as a frosh prior to injury, as was Duane Wilson this season. In addition, prior to his departure, Maymon averaged 16 min/game and that was going to increase as the season went on.

First-year players under Buzz...

2008-09
Butler 19.6 min/game

2009-10
Buycks 23.6 min/game
DJO: 29.7 min/game

2010-11
Crowder 27.6 min/game

2011-12
Jamil:  24.1 min/game

The numbers show that Buzz doesn't play freshmen much. However, the numbers alone don't tell the whole story.

[Henry Sugar]

It SHOULD be worth mentioning that Buzz's first-year JUCO players (and a transfer) have taken a bulk of the minutes that may have otherwise been reserved for freshman. It's not telling the whole story by only looking at freshmen. It's also worth noting that Cadougan was expected to see decent minutes as a frosh prior to injury, as was Duane Wilson this season. In addition, prior to his departure, Maymon averaged 16 min/game and that was going to increase as the season went on.

Three comments

#1 - No offense, but your comments about Cadougan and Duane Wilson don't much matter. They got injured and did not get minutes.

#2 - I could easily make the argument that Maymon's minutes would go down during conference play. JJJ getting a DNP-CD vs DePaul as an example.

#3 - I'm not yet convinced that the JUCOs are a substitution effect for the Freshmen minutes, but I am open to a legit argument. If this is the hypothesis, let's see what comes from it.

[Dawson Rental]

I would think this has to be a negative when it comes to recruiting. With all the AAU tournaments and such I think freshman come in more prepared than they used to and think the learning curve is far less than it used to be. This somewhat troubles me and think it could be used against us in the ultra competitive recruiting world.

I'm not sure how much AAU prepares freshmen players to play Division I defense.  I've always felt that defense is little emphasized in those tournaments.  Those on this board who see more AAU games than I may be able to confirm or deny.

[connie]

Wouldn't the number of JUCO's skew the data by reducing the pool of available freshmen minutes?  We know Buzz does play freshman (even if the number is low).  But if he has a larger percentage of JUCOs there are less freshmen available to play at all.  I don't know, but am curious.

[mu03eng]

#3 - I'm not yet convinced that the JUCOs are a substitution effect for the Freshmen minutes, but I am open to a legit argument. If this is the hypothesis, let's see what comes from it.

I believe the JUCOs have to be at least a partial substitution effect.  If we concede the premise that a coach fills their roster totally(all scholarships filled) then if a JUCO is not on the team than a freshman would be.  The coach than has a choice to either play the non-freshmen more or play the freshmen more minutes.  I'd argue it would be a combination of the two, so freshmen minutes would go up but so would non-freshmen.  However, since JUCOs are non-freshmen the total freshmen number relative to the non-freshmen would go up resulting in a high % of freshmen play, probably at least enough to narrow the small gap from the non-Kentucky schools.

[mu03eng]

I believe the JUCOs have to be at least a partial substitution effect.  If we concede the premise that a coach fills their roster totally(all scholarships filled) then if a JUCO is not on the team than a freshman would be.  The coach than has a choice to either play the non-freshmen more or play the freshmen more minutes.  I'd argue it would be a combination of the two, so freshmen minutes would go up but so would non-freshmen.  However, since JUCOs are non-freshmen the total freshmen number relative to the non-freshmen would go up resulting in a high % of freshmen play, probably at least enough to narrow the small gap from the non-Kentucky schools.

Qouting myself is weird, but one thing to add....the freshmen replacing the JUCOs would, in my estimation, be a lower caliber than the "real" freshmen so the new ones would get no minutes.

[Silkk the Shaka]

That ~20 mpg is the 47% of Min in the last table. Divide by five to get his contribution to a starting five (9.46%). It's that "divide by five" that is the key difference between Hanner's number and the PT analysis.

Yep, was definitely reading that wrong. Thanks.

[The Equalizer]

It SHOULD be worth mentioning that Buzz's first-year JUCO players (and a transfer) have taken a bulk of the minutes that may have otherwise been reserved for freshman. It's not telling the whole story by only looking at freshmen. It's also worth noting that Cadougan was expected to see decent minutes as a frosh prior to injury, as was Duane Wilson this season. In addition, prior to his departure, Maymon averaged 16 min/game and that was going to increase as the season went on.

First-year players under Buzz...

2008-09
Butler 19.6 min/game

2009-10
Buycks 23.6 min/game
DJO: 29.7 min/game

2010-11
Crowder 27.6 min/game

2011-12
Jamil:  24.1 min/game

The numbers show that Buzz doesn't play freshmen much. However, the numbers alone don't tell the whole story.

Actually, they took the bulk of the minutes that would have been for rising underclassmen.

If Christopherson doesn't transfer and Taylor didn't reneg they would have received the minutes that Butler and Buycks and DJO got.

Crowder got the minutes that would have gone to some combination of Mbakwe, McMorrow, Mbao and Maymon.

Therefore, I don't think they got the minutes freshman would have got.  I think they got the scholarships that freshman would have got.

[jeffreyweee]

I wonder how the rank of the team during that year also affects freshman minutes. For example, if these freshman were on last years team would they be getting the same minutes? I'd argue that JJJ and Dawson would not see the floor in conference play and I highly doubt Burton would either. However, if they were on the Hayward team I bet they would all get minutes.

[The Equalizer]

I wonder how the rank of the team during that year also affects freshman minutes. For example, if these freshman were on last years team would they be getting the same minutes? I'd argue that JJJ and Dawson would not see the floor in conference play and I highly doubt Burton would either. However, if they were on the Hayward team I bet they would all get minutes.

If Dawson this year can't beat out Derrick Wilson who cant shoot, how in the world could he have beaten out Aacker, who turned out to have one of the best single season 3 point percentages in MU history?

I think if you replace Mayo, Dawson and Derrick Wilson with the 2010 backcourt of Acker, Cubillan, Buycks and DJO, we're proably ranked in the top 10 right now. And Burton and JJJ would have an even harder time getting significant minutes.

[Atticus]

Curious why those particular four teams were picked.....

[jeffreyweee]

If Dawson this year can't beat out Derrick Wilson who cant shoot, how in the world could he have beaten out Aacker, who turned out to have one of the best single season 3 point percentages in MU history?

I think if you replace Mayo, Dawson and Derrick Wilson with the 2010 backcourt of Acker, Cubillan, Buycks and DJO, we're proably ranked in the top 10 right now. And Burton and JJJ would have an even harder time getting significant minutes.

Look at the record of that team. If we didn't win those OT games in conference we wouldn't have made the tournament. How quickly we deify past players. Dawson would get spot minutes behind Acker, JJJ and Burton would get the same minutes at the 2/3

[Jay Bee]

Analysis doesn't make sense for a couple of reasons at a high level. Will look into more when I've got some time (maybe 2016 or so).

First, using Pomeroy means you're eliminating guys under 10%. Since it appears you're using total freshman minutes you could be considerably cutting down a team's frosh minutes if they have a few freshman at 8% or so.

Second, using total freshman minutes is by itself flawed, yes?... need to look at roster composition, quality of frosh, etc in order to get into a real discussion about a coach who "doesn't play freshman".

[MU82]

I would think this has to be a negative when it comes to recruiting.

One would think so. But it's what Buzz has done and yet his most recent recruiting classes have been his best, and he is off to a great start on future classes.

Oh, and I doubt Buzz would keep Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker and Derrick Rose on the bench. He would tell them in recruiting that they would play if they merit it, they would merit it, and he would play them.

And speaking of Parker ... did you see that Coach K benched him yesterday. Literally benched him -- didn't play him at all in the defining moments of the game because "he wasn't playing well enough." Can you imagine the reaction here if Buzz benched a Jabari Parker at the end of a close game? (Actually, I'd love to be able to imagine it because that would mean we'd have a Jabari Parker!)

[Henry Sugar]

Curious why those particular four teams were picked.....

Kentucky - because obviously they play the most amount of freshmen minutes

Notre Dame - because they were listed by Hanner as a team close to MU in terms of not playing freshmen

UL/Cuse - because the Paint Touches guys said that MU was higher than those teams in their analysis, and we are all generally familiar with those teams

[Henry Sugar]

Analysis doesn't make sense for a couple of reasons at a high level. Will look into more when I've got some time (maybe 2016 or so).

First, using Pomeroy means you're eliminating guys under 10%. Since it appears you're using total freshman minutes you could be considerably cutting down a team's frosh minutes if they have a few freshman at 8% or so.

Second, using total freshman minutes is by itself flawed, yes?... need to look at roster composition, quality of frosh, etc in order to get into a real discussion about a coach who "doesn't play freshman".

I did a few spot checks on the total %Min for the various teams. The lowest I got to was 483% total minutes, or 38.6 minutes of total game time. More of the spot checks were higher than that (495% or so). Put another way, eliminating guys under 10% means we're eliminating guys that play less than 2 min per game.

When Hanner originally did his analysis, he looked at about 10 years worth of data to compile % of freshmen minutes. I agree that total freshman minutes can be flawed, but over that period of time I think the information can be useful. If you have other questions, Hanner is pretty responsive.

Here's why I think this question is relevant. This is arguably MU's best freshman class in a decade. And yet, the top two recruits are not getting substantial playing time. Why? Is it because there is something wrong with these freshmen, or is it because Buzz has a general bias against playing freshmen? Given the recent success of the program, does it even matter how much Buzz plays freshmen?