BEast NCAA Tourney Teams?

[MuggsyB]

Obviously, there's a long way to go in the season but it looks like: 

Tier 1 :  Nova, Creighton, and possibly UCONN. 

Tier 2:  XU, Hall, Prov, Marquette

Tier 3:  Butler, Gtown, St.J, DePaul


The good news is we will have ample opportunity to get some more quality wins and move higher in the league.  But the question is will the BEast get more than 4? 
My concern is the non-conf resumes are not there.

My take is MU needs to find a way to get in the 4 or 5 spot. Watching XU/Prov I don't think either of these teams should be better than MU, although Duke and Scruggs are better than our best player.  The Hall may be better despite getting destroyed by Creighton.  Can we get to the top of the 2nd tier?  What would it take?

I'm mostly interested if posters here think we can turn the corner but will just say Carton is the key to our success imo.  He has to play well for us to have a realistic shot.  I think there needs to be a greater sense of urgency getting him off early in games and in attack mode both to distribute and score.

[BM1090]

MU has the big, signature wins already. They just have to pile up more wins. I'd guess they have to finish 11-9 to get in which requires 9-5 for the rest of the season. Is it attainable? Sure. But I don't see it happening.

We'll know more next week.

[MuggsyB]

Wow.  Absolutely brutal call in the Prov/XU game.  Could cost the Dence the game.  Awful traveling call.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Crazy finish. 11-0 run by PC. Xavier wins it on a 8-0 run.

[wisblue]

Obviously, there's a long way to go in the season but it looks like: 

Tier 1 :  Nova, Creighton, and possibly UCONN. 

Tier 2:  XU, Hall, Prov, Marquette

Tier 3:  Butler, Gtown, St.J, DePaul


The good news is we will have ample opportunity to get some more quality wins and move higher in the league.  But the question is will the BEast get more than 4? 
My concern is the non-conf resumes are not there.

My take is MU needs to find a way to get in the 4 or 5 spot. Watching XU/Prov I don't think either of these teams should be better than MU, although Duke and Scruggs are better than our best player.  The Hall may be better despite getting destroyed by Creighton.  Can we get to the top of the 2nd tier?  What would it take?

I'm mostly interested if posters here think we can turn the corner but will just say Carton is the key to our success imo.  He has to play well for us to have a realistic shot.  I think there needs to be a greater sense of urgency getting him off early in games and in attack mode both to distribute and score.

I think it's generous putting MU in the same category as Seton Hall, and I'm not sure Xavier and Providence aren't both slightly better. If I were doing conference power rankings right now I'd put MU 7th, ahead of only the obvious bottom 4. MU might be closer to the top of that group than the bottom of the middle group.

I don't think the Big East is likely to get more than 4 teams in this year, and I think it might take a conference record of 12-8 to get in.  I think all of the top teams in the conference are going to be piling up wins against that bottom 4.

[MuggsyB]

Crazy finish. 11-0 run by PC. Xavier wins it on a 8-0 run.

That traveling call cost Providence the game.  Cooley cannot be happy.   Regardless, we must take advantage Tues as they are coming off short rest.

[wisblue]

Wow.  Absolutely brutal call in the Prov/XU game.  Could cost the Dence the game.  Awful traveling call.

I actually thought the call should have been a charge on the PC player for extending his arm to push the defender out of the way before he travelled.

[MuggsyB]

I actually thought the call should have been a charge on the PC player for extending his arm to push the defender out of the way before he travelled.

Disagree Blue.  He gave him no space and he fouled him on the arm before he was run over.  As far as are we better than the other tier 2 teams?  Let me just qualify here a bit.  We're not playing better than these teams, that's for sure.  But my opinion is we are as talented and should be in the mix for 4/5.  That's all I'm saying.

[JWags85]

I actually thought the call should have been a charge on the PC player for extending his arm to push the defender out of the way before he travelled.

It was a charge or a block, you can debate that as you wish.  To ignore all that contact and just focus on the shuffle of the feet for a travel is laughable officiating

[Eye]

Required to pick right now, I'd say 6 - nova, Creighton, UConn. Then Hall and X with pretty poor seeds. Then PC in the play-in game. Gotta fill the field.

[GooooMarquette]

In terms of talent and potential, we most definitely are in the upper part of tier 2. In terms of execution, we are on the border between tier 2 and tier 3.

As BM1090 said, we have the signature wins that will give us a huge benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday. Now we just need to grind out a pile of wins.

Regarding how we get there, I agree that DJ is the key. He has looked extremely good at times, and completely lost at others. He seems to respond poorly to pressure, which has surprised me. If he can turn that around, we can still be a very good team.

[panda]

In terms of talent and potential, we most definitely are in the upper part of tier 2. In terms of execution, we are on the border between tier 2 and tier 3.

As BM1090 said, we have the signature wins that will give us a huge benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday. Now we just need to grind out a pile of wins.

Regarding how we get there, I agree that DJ is the key. He has looked extremely good at times, and completely lost at others. He seems to respond poorly to pressure, which has surprised me. If he can turn that around, we can still be a very good team.

Grinding out wins is not something a Wojo team has really ever done. Too inconsistent fundamentally to do that.

[shoothoops]

In terms of talent and potential, we most definitely are in the upper part of tier 2. In terms of execution, we are on the border between tier 2 and tier 3.

As BM1090 said, we have the signature wins that will give us a huge benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday. Now we just need to grind out a pile of wins.

Regarding how we get there, I agree that DJ is the key. He has looked extremely good at times, and completely lost at others. He seems to respond poorly to pressure, which has surprised me. If he can turn that around, we can still be a very good team.

"You are what your record says you are"

During an individual season, it fluctuates until final. Today, it isn't good enough. End of season, we'll see.

[The Big East]

I think any team that can get to 10 conference wins will make it into the tournament.

Right now it looks like 6 teams have a shot at reaching that level. Nova, Creighton, Seton Hall, U Conn, X and Providence.

MU will have to improve meaningfully to get into that group.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Minimum 4, maximum of 6 (unless a bidstealer wins the BET).

Marquette has the best signature wins of anyone in the Big East. Assuming they play a full schedule I think .500 in conference is enough to sneak in...but not if they keep losing big at home. Kills our efficiency numbers.

[franklinjerry]

Difficult task. A win against the top 4 (V, C, SH, Conn) would be an upset.  Is were any reason to believe we will not struggle with the other 6 teams? I think going .500 the remainder of the season may be the ceiling which leaves us sub .500 for the year. Remember we're playing 8 and getting very little from Sy or Greg. The starting 5 is solid as a whole but wildly inconsistent individually.

Let's not even factor in the annual year end melt down.

Will COVID knock otherwise tourney bound teams out?

[DoctorV]

Wow.  Absolutely brutal call in the Prov/XU game.  Could cost the Dence the game.  Awful traveling call.

"The Dence"

You've already got a fan on this board.

MuggsyB are you five foot three?

[brewcity77]

Minimum 4, maximum of 6 (unless a bidstealer wins the BET).

Marquette has the best signature wins of anyone in the Big East. Assuming they play a full schedule I think .500 in conference is enough to sneak in...but not if they keep losing big at home. Kills our efficiency numbers.

Depends a lot on who we beat. I don't think our two signature wins are enough if our remaining wins are only against Butler, St. John's, Georgetown, and DePaul. I think we need to be a game or two above .500, depending on how many we play. We at least need to split with some of the UConn/SHU/Providence/Xavier crowd, especially if they are able to nick some games off 'Nova or Creighton.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Depends a lot on who we beat. I don't think our two signature wins are enough if our remaining wins are only against Butler, St. John's, Georgetown, and DePaul. I think we need to be a game or two above .500, depending on how many we play. We at least need to split with some of the UConn/SHU/Providence/Xavier crowd, especially if they are able to nick some games off 'Nova or Creighton.

Well, even if we go undefeated against the group that would only get us to 9 wins. Would need at least one win against someone else to make it to .500.

I think the Wisconsin win will carry more weight than we may realize. Very few teams will have a signature non-conference win that good. They are at a premium this year due to the shortened non-conference.

[brewcity77]

Well, even if we go undefeated against the group that would only get us to 9 wins. Would need at least one win against someone else to make it to .500.

I think the Wisconsin win will carry more weight than we may realize. Very few teams will have a signature non-conference win that good. They are at a premium this year due to the shortened non-conference.

I have to imagine we'll have more cancellations. If we end up with one more of the mid-tier group, that's 9-9 and .500. We could just as easily go 8-8 or 7-7 with all the remaining wins against that group.

[Nukem2]

MUs current NET is 73.  Whole lot of work to be done.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I have to imagine we'll have more cancellations. If we end up with one more of the mid-tier group, that's 9-9 and .500. We could just as easily go 8-8 or 7-7 with all the remaining wins against that group.

True, I mentioned in my original post that this was all assuming we played a full schedule, which is a big assumption.

MUs current NET is 73.  Whole lot of work to be done.

Yes, but it's very early in the year for NET to be accurate. You will see a lot of high majors teams rise just by nature of playing better opponents in conference play.

[brewcity77]

True, I mentioned in my original post that this was all assuming we played a full schedule, which is a big assumption.

• Play the next 6 (PC, @SJU, GT, DPU, @PC, But).
  
• COVID pause after Butler, starting night of Feb 2, ending Feb 16 (missing Creighton and @SHU)
  
• Play @But, SJU.
  
• COVID pause from Feb 26 to March 12, missing @UConn, @DPU, Xavier, and the BET.
  
• MU wins their remaining games, all against sub-50 kenpom teams, goes 14-6 (10-4) and is only judged on beating the equivalent of in-league cupcakes from here until Selection Sunday, and have plenty of time to quarantine and test negative before the tourney starts.

[MuggsyB]

"The Dence"

You've already got a fan on this board.

MuggsyB are you five foot three?

I'm 5'4 and 1/2.  In my prime I had very good handles and solid blow-by speed.  But Muggsy had a 44 inch vert, supreme quicks,  and I will admit was a better athlete. 

[MuggsyB]

MUs current NET is 73.  Whole lot of work to be done.

True dat Nuke.  Good to hear from you