[Cracked Sidewalks] MU & Butler Project as 1st 2 Teams Out After Value Add Adjustment for Froling and All Other Injuries, Transfers worth 0.5 or more pts.

[CrackedSidewalks]

MU & Butler Project as 1st 2 Teams Out After Value Add Adjustment for Froling and All Other Injuries, Transfers worth 0.5 or more pts.

The following table seeds the NCAA March Madness Field based on each team's current rating at www.kenpom.com adjusted by the Value Add rating of each player who is returning or lost for the season.

The first number is the current KenPom Rating. If a player who helps or hurts a team by at least 0.50 points is listed in this blog, then that total is reflected in the second "change" number, and after those two numbers are added together they are multiplied by .70 to estimate how many points each team is better or worse than average. Villanova calculates as 21.46 points better than the average team, which would leave them with a 1-seed.

Marquette and Butler actually calculate as the first two teams out of the tournament with Froling projecting to help the team by 1.21 points to make MU 9.91 points better than the average team in the country.

Team	KenPom	Change	Pts above ave	Conf	Seed
Villanova	31.02		21.46	BE	1
Michigan St.	28.63		19.79	B10	1
North Carolina	22.22	5.64	19.25	ACC	1
Virginia	27.15		18.76	ACC	1
Duke	26.39		18.22	ACC	2
Arizona	21.43	4.61	17.98	P12	2
Purdue	25.71		17.75	B10	2
Kansas	24.84		17.14	B12	2
Texas A&M	24.25		16.73	SEC	3
West Virginia	22.56		15.54	B12	3
Clemson	19.23	3.15	15.42	ACC	3
Wichita St.	22.38		15.42	Amer	3
Cincinnati	22.3		15.36	Amer	4
Texas Tech	22.29		15.35	B12	4
Gonzaga	21.71		14.95	WCC	4
Miami FL	21.52		14.81	ACC	4
Seton Hall	20.02	1.48	14.80	BE	5
Oklahoma	21.19		14.58	B12	5
Kentucky	21.18		14.58	SEC	5
Xavier	21.08		14.51	BE	5
Florida St.	18.2	2.18	14.02	ACC	6
Saint Mary's	17.4	2.17	13.45	WCC	6
Baylor	18.33	1.10	13.35	B12	6
Arizona St.	19.25		13.23	P12	6
SMU	19.14		13.15	Amer	7
TCU	19.14		13.15	B12	7
Notre Dame	19.08		13.11	ACC	7
Arkansas	19.06		13.09	SEC	7
Louisville	16.82	1.98	12.91	ACC	8
Florida	16.91	1.64	12.74	SEC	8
Texas	17.3	1.12	12.64	B12	8
Tennessee	18		12.35	SEC	8
Nevada	17.83		12.23	MWC	9
Creighton	17.66		12.11	BE	9
USC	16.28	0.94	11.80	P12	9
St. Bonaventure	11.68	5.47	11.76	A10	9
St. John's	13.76	3.34	11.72	BE	10
Michigan	17.04		11.68	B10	10
Maryland	16.97		11.63	B10	10
Virginia Tech	16.51		11.31	ACC	10
Houston	15.72		10.75	Amer	11
Auburn	15.02		10.26	SEC	11
Penn St.	14.77		10.09	B10	12-Dayton
Alabama	13.27	1.40	10.02	SEC	12-Dayton
Minnesota	14.61		9.98	B10	12-Dayton
Kansas St.	14.57		9.95	B12	12-Dayton
Northern Iowa	6.97	4.91	8.06	MVC	11
Middle Tennessee	10.43		7.05	CUSA	11
Vermont	9.07		6.10	AE	12
College of Charleston	4.38	4.68	6.09	CAA	12
Northern Kentucky	8.42		5.64	Horz	13
UT Arlington	8.23		5.51	SB	13
Bucknell	6.02	1.37	4.92	Pat	13
South Dakota	7.35		4.90	Sum	13
Portland St.	3.32	3.43	4.48	BSky	14
New Mexico St.	6.67		4.42	WAC	14
East Tennessee St.	6.54		4.33	SC	14
Ohio	1.35	5.17	4.32	MAC	14
Belmont	5.62		3.68	OVC	15
Stephen F. Austin	4.25		2.73	Slnd	15
Iona	4.14		2.65	MAAC	15
Florida Gulf Coast	2.3	1.73	2.57	ASun	15
Princeton	4.02		2.56	Ivy	16
UC Santa Barbara	3.39		2.12	BW	16
St. Francis PA	-1.42	3.61	1.28	NEC	16-Dayton
UNC Asheville	2.17		1.27	BSth	16-Dayton
Texas Southern	-3.84		-2.94	SWAC	16-Dayton
Hampton	-8.5		-6.20	MEAC	16-Dayton
Butler	14.54		9.93	BE	1st 4 out
Marquette	13.3	1.21	9.91	BE	1st 4 out
Ohio St.	14.36		9.80	B10	1st 4 out
UCF	8.32	5.57	9.48	Amer	1st 4 out
Missouri	13.84		9.44	SEC	Next 4 out
Oregon	13.8		9.41	P12	Next 4 out
Rhode Island	13.21		9.00	A10	Next 4 out
Oklahoma St.	13.6	-0.61	8.84	B12	Next 4 out
Syracuse	12.89		8.77	ACC	3rd 4 out
Providence	10.57	1.84	8.44	BE	3rd 4 out
San Diego St.	12.13		8.24	MWC	3rd 4 out
Georgia	10.7	1.42	8.23	SEC	3rd 4 out

Source: MU & Butler Project as 1st 2 Teams Out After Value Add Adjustment for Froling and All Other Injuries, Transfers worth 0.5 or more pts.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Only five Big East teams in at this time...that's a drop down from seven last year.  UGA out.  That UGA home loss could cost us. Lots of hoops to be played, obviously.

Wojo folding in different defenses lately. That side of the ball will determine MU's fate. Worst in the Big East in the OOC.

[Dawson Rental]

Only five Big East teams in at this time...that's a drop down from seven last year.  UGA out.  That UGA home loss could cost us. Lots of hoops to be played, obviously.

Wojo folding in different defenses lately. That side of the ball will determine MU's fate. Worst in the Big East in the OOC.

Just to clarify, MU's defense is the worst in the big East during OOC, right?

[Dawson Rental]

Why is Dayton mentioned after the seeding of the 12th and 16th seeded teams in the tournament?

[Dr. Blackheart]

Just to clarify, MU's defense is the worst in the big East during OOC, right?

Yes, per KPomeroy.

[MU82]

Crap. And I was looking forward to the season.

Won't even bother watching now, since we have no chance.

[MDMU04]

Why is Dayton mentioned after the seeding of the 12th and 16th seeded teams in the tournament?

I’m guessing he’s saying those teams would be in the first four play-in round in Dayton. That’s the only thing I can think of.

[mugrad99]

Is this before or after last night's games (Penn St losing to Rider and Alabama losing to Texas). Georgia also beat Temple

[auburnmarquette]

Before. It is based on the numbers through the current www.valueaddbasketball.,com page which in the bottom right lists the Thursday night games that were not yet included when it was last run - so none of the Friday night games but all but a few of Thursday night games - San Diego St win over Gonzaga was not included.

[auburnmarquette]

Only five Big East teams in at this time...that's a drop down from seven last year.  UGA out.  That UGA home loss could cost us. Lots of hoops to be played, obviously.

Wojo folding in different defenses lately. That side of the ball will determine MU's fate. Worst in the Big East in the OOC.

Agreed, though our 3-point defense was one of the worst 10 in the country through early December and has improved dramatically from "terrible."

[auburnmarquette]

Why is Dayton mentioned after the seeding of the 12th and 16th seeded teams in the tournament?

Just meant those would be the playing games in Dayton as the last 4 teams in and then the worst 4 of the automatic bids.

[auburnmarquette]

I’m guessing he’s saying those teams would be in the first four play-in round in Dayton. That’s the only thing I can think of.

Thanks - sorry I just answered again before seeing you had already answered

[auburnmarquette]

Crap. And I was looking forward to the season.

Won't even bother watching now, since we have no chance.

Yes! I wanted to free you up to do other things selection Sunday rather than watching all 4 brackets without much ever being called - and then having to hear the committee say they thought long and hard about Marquette and Butler :-)

[MU82]

Yes! I wanted to free you up to do other things selection Sunday rather than watching all 4 brackets without much ever being called - and then having to hear the committee say they thought long and hard about Marquette and Butler :-)

You are a very caring person. Thanks!

I'm now free to cure cancer!

[auburnmarquette]

Awesome :-) merry Christmas!

[Anti-Dentite]

Awesome :-) merry Christmas!

I see what you did there

[NickelDimer]

Now that we’ve had a chance to get a good feel for this roster I feel very comfortable in saying not getting a tourney bid this year with this roster would definitely be underachieving.

[MU82]

nm

[BM1090]

Now that we’ve had a chance to get a good feel for this roster I feel very comfortable in saying not getting a tourney bid this year with this roster would definitely be underachieving.

I don't really understand this. At the start of the year with this roster not many would have said that. We lost a starter due to transfer and now if we don't get a bid it would be underachieving?

[cheese ball chaser]

Now that we’ve had a chance to get a good feel for this roster I feel very comfortable in saying not getting a tourney bid this year with this roster would definitely be underachieving.

I would've agreed before Cheatham transferred.

[Loose Cannon]

I don't really understand this. At the start of the year with this roster not many would have said that. We lost a starter due to transfer and now if we don't get a bid it would be underachieving?

I Concur.  At the beginning of the season many posters thought it would be a step back season, and even Kenpom had us as 18-16 wins.

Now that the new faces (and Sacar) are developing, that improvement rate may not be sustainable in playing the BEast schedule.  I think underachieving is an unfair statement which diminishes the progress made by these guys.  Its as unfair as questioning why us fans did not seeing this coming.

But the bottom line is we're going Dancing and that the name of that Tune.