Consensus Pre-season Top 25 so far

[Sunbelt15]

Who in the hell does Kentucky have coming in that puts them #1 across the board?!

[MerrittsMustache]

This year's AP Top 10:

1   Indiana - SWEET 16
2   Louisville - CHAMPS
3   Kentucky - BUST
4   Ohio State -ELITE 8
5   Michigan - RUNNER UP
6   North Carolina State - 1ST ROUND
7   Kansas -ELITE 8
8   Duke - ELITE 8
9   Syracuse - FINAL FOUR
10   Florida - ELITE 8

70% made the Elite 8, 80% made the Sweet 16, 90% made the NCAAs.

Florida actually only made the S16.

However, 6 of the E8 teams were ranked in the preseason top 10 and 2 other teams were knocked out by those 6 in the S16. Much better than I would have thought.

[Aughnanure]

Who in the hell does Kentucky have coming in that puts them #1 across the board?!

Arguably the greatest recruiting class ever assembled.

[swoopem]

Florida actually only made the S16.

However, 6 of the E8 teams were ranked in the preseason top 10 and 2 other teams were knocked out by those 6 in the S16. Much better than I would have thought.

Florida lost to Michigan in the elite 8, they beat FGCU in the sweet 16

[MerrittsMustache]

Florida lost to Michigan in the elite 8, they beat FGCU in the sweet 16

Oops. Kansas, not Florida, was knocked out by Michigan in the S16. Got those games mixed up. Thanks!

[The Lens]

Florida actually only made the S16.

However, 6 of the E8 teams were ranked in the preseason top 10 and 2 other teams were knocked out by those 6 in the S16. Much better than I would have thought.

Fixed it.  I knew I was wrong bc obviously WSU & MU were not Preseason Top 10.  Thanks for correcting.  That being said, when 80% of the Top 10 makes the S16, it's not a bad place to be.

[Lennys Tap]

Yup, but we were talking about the top 25 and my point was where they are ranked in the preseason is not where where they are ranked at the end.  Furthermore, it's not that hard to figure out the top 10 teams, yet even then they got 20% of them wrong.

#3 Kentucky...not ranked end of year
#6 NC State...not ranked end of year
#12 North Carolina...not ranked end of year
#13 UCLA...not ranked end of year
#17 Missouri...not ranked end of year
#18 Baylor...not ranked end of year
#19 UNLV...not ranked end of year
#20 San Diego State...not ranked end of year
#22 Notre Dame...not ranked end of year
#24 Cincinnati...not ranked end of year
#24 Texas...not ranked end of year
#24 Florida State...not ranked end of year

12 of the top 25 preseason didn't finish ranked.....almost 50%  You can do the exercise for both polls, they are brutally bad in the preseason and have been so for many years.


Then you factor in the other way

Marquette...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Saint Louis...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Wichita State...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Kansas State...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Miami...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
New Mexico...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
La Salle...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Oregon...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
VCU...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked

75%  (12) of the top 16 end up ranked. The lower you go, the less margin for error. I mean, the 3 teams TIED for 24th in a preseason poll not finishing in the top 25 is almost statistically meaningless - not an indication that they're "brutally bad".

[ChicosBailBonds]

75%  (12) of the top 16 end up ranked. The lower you go, the less margin for error. I mean, the 3 teams TIED for 24th in a preseason poll not finishing in the top 25 is almost statistically meaningless - not an indication that they're "brutally bad".

We agree, the lower you go the margin for error is less.  No argument there....then again, they are publishing a top 25, not a top 10 or top 15. 

My pet peeve with them every year, especially the coaches poll (I actually witnessed first hand how the "coaches" voted in that thing...what a farce) is that they don't have the time even in season to do it correctly, they sure as hell aren't going to do it right in the preseason.  It becomes an exercise where the same 10 teams are automatically in the top 25 regardless of who they have coming back.  They fill in around the edges and make up their top 25.  It's just lazy effort, but I don't blame them because its too much work to truly sit down and see how is going to be good.  It becomes nonsensical, but something for fans to talk about.  Just don't get too tied to them, but over 40% of the time you aren't finishing the season ranked...that's been the case for the last decade.

[jesmu84]

We agree, the lower you go the margin for error is less.  No argument there....then again, they are publishing a top 25, not a top 10 or top 15. 

My pet peeve with them every year, especially the coaches poll (I actually witnessed first hand how the "coaches" voted in that thing...what a farce) is that they don't have the time even in season to do it correctly, they sure as hell aren't going to do it right in the preseason.  It becomes an exercise where the same 10 teams are automatically in the top 25 regardless of who they have coming back.  They fill in around the edges and make up their top 25.  It's just lazy effort, but I don't blame them because its too much work to truly sit down and see how is going to be good.  It becomes nonsensical, but something for fans to talk about.  Just don't get too tied to them, but over 40% of the time you aren't finishing the season ranked...that's been the case for the last decade.

A good friend was an SID at ND, so i've got a little perspective on this and totally agree about the coaches poll. I know little about it, so I thought I'd ask your opinion on the AP poll

[ChicosBailBonds]

A good friend was an SID at ND, so i've got a little perspective on this and totally agree about the coaches poll. I know little about it, so I thought I'd ask your opinion on the AP poll

   Hornet's nest question.   There are some sports reporters that I think many would characterize as not exactly the go getter type, maybe even lazy.  They are in the chow line before the games, have the SIDs write the stories for them, etc.  Then there are those that work their tails off.  Let's just say the AP poll is mixed with voters of both ilks so the good work done by those that actually dig into a team and how good they really are is offset by the lazy ones that don't do squat and dilute the votes of those actually doing the work. 

[CAGASS24]

Even Bilas has us in the top 10 at No. 8.
 
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The ridiculous reliability of The Bilas Index almost rendered the 2012-13 college basketball season irrelevant. The Bilas Index, which combines all of the best features of the most reliable metrics in the game with the raw and awesome power of The Bilastrator's incomparable basketball mind, has pinpoint accuracy. Simply put, it's never wrong, and the entire landscape of the game is put into context and simplified by The Bilastrator. Case in point, prior to the 2013 NCAA tournament, The Bilas Index tapped Louisville as the best team in college basketball. Notwithstanding the ups and downs of the Cardinals, you're welcome.



Still, it was good that the 2013 NCAA tournament was played anyway so the NCAA could earn some badly-needed cash. Paying for all those mascots and "spirit squads" for graduated athletes on job interviews would have been a challenge without it. Of this, The Bilastrator is certain.



While The Bilas Index usually makes use of analytics such as KenPom.com, the Sagarin Ratings, the UPS Team Performance Index, ESPN's Basketball Power Index, and many of the most subtle metrics in the game kept meticulously by The Bilastrator's minions, this prescient, perceptive and hyper-clairvoyant "look ahead" to the 2013-14 season is based primarily upon The Bilastrator's massive brain and unparalleled basketball expertise and knowledge.



Even without the metrics as a baseline of on-court accomplishment, The Bilastrator's basketball mind and experience can serve to predict the upcoming basketball season, much like Nostradamus predicted the future in his quatrains (except The Bilastrator's predictions are far more accurate). As always, you're welcome.


 


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1. Kentucky Wildcats
 The Wildcats will take their NIT disappointment out on the rest of the field with the nation's top recruiting class and some very confident returnees. John Calipari's incoming class is ridiculous, with Julius Randle, James Young, Dakari Johnson and Andrew and Aaron Harrison. This Kentucky team will be the first in basketball history where players declared for the NBA draft because they feared they couldn't play on their college team if they came back.
 





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2. Louisville Cardinals
 Rick Pitino's Cardinals should not be expected to contend after losing a backcourt that led him to two straight Final Fours. But he has a juco point guard, Chris Jones, who will help make up for the loss of Peyton Siva and Russ Smith. Jones is the real thing.




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3. Michigan State Spartans
 Tom Izzo has another Final Four team as long as his backcourt of Keith Appling and Gary Harris stays healthy. Adreian Payne should blossom into a frontcourt star and Matt Costello will take off in the middle.




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4. Duke Blue Devils
 The Blue Devils lose a trio of seniors who led the way, but incoming freshman phenom Jabari Parker and Mississippi State transfer Rodney Hood will provide punch to a small but very talented lineup. Duke will be quick, athletic and attacking, and will be a Final Four threat.




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5. Arizona Wildcats
 The Wildcats were as talented as any team they played this season, but weren't as experienced or mentally tough as they will be in 2013-14. Mark Lyons will be replaced with Duquesne transfer T.J. McConnell, and newcomers Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will be immediate factors in making Arizona a title contender.
 



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6. North Carolina Tar Heels
 Roy Williams gets high marks for his flexibility and decision-making when he went to the smaller, quicker and simply better lineup in 2013. The Tar Heels add newcomers Isaiah Hicks, Nate Britt and Kennedy Meeks and have an outside shot at No. 1 recruit Andrew Wiggins.
 



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7. Florida Gators
 Billy Donovan has solidified his Hall of Fame resume with three straight Elite Eight appearances, falling short of the Final Four all three times. Florida can defend in the half court and can score. Freshmen Kasey Hill and Chris Walker should play right away, and Virginia Tech transfer Dorian Finney-Smith can really rebound and defend.




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8. Marquette Golden Eagles
 The Golden Eagles return Vander Blue, Jamil Wilson and Davante Gardner. Buzz Williams will have a new point guard, but he has had new pieces every year and has been money in the NCAA tournament.




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9. Michigan Wolverines
 John Beilein has always done more with less. This year, Beilein did more with more, and he'll have more and less next season. The key will be the development of a new backcourt, as Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. will likely be gone.


 


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10. Indiana Hoosiers
 Without Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, Indiana will have players in new roles. However, Tom Crean has an excellent forward in Noah Vonleh coming in. Indiana will be competitive with anyone.


 


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11. Syracuse Orange
 Jim Boeheim returns a veteran group of winning players and brings in Tyler Ennis to run the point and Tyler Roberson up front. Losing Michael Carter-Williams hurts, but when was the last time Syracuse didn't lose top talent? The most important returnees are Boeheim and assistant Mike Hopkins.




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12. Tennessee Volunteers
 Cuonzo Martin flirted with the NCAA tournament and has most of his roster back, including Jeronne Maymon. A key for them will be the play at the point with Trae Golden and Darius Thompson.




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13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
 The Irish have a good core returning, including an outstanding backcourt in Jerian Grant and Eric Atkins, plus a top-rated recruiting class with point guard Demetrius Jackson leading the way.




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14. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
 The Rams return everyone from a near-dominant team, and head coach Shaka Smart was the most important person retained. VCU can shoot it and guard.




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15. Kansas Jayhawks
 Breaking news ... Kansas loses all five starters, but is still a national contender because Bill Self decided not to declare for the NBA draft. That's good enough for The Bilastrator. Plus, Kansas brings in Conner Frankamp to run the point and Wayne Selden to light it up.
 



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16. Connecticut Huskies
 After the ridiculous postseason ban, the Huskies return one of the best backcourts in the country in Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright.




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17. Memphis Tigers
 The Tigers lose Tarik Black and Adonis Thomas but bring in a top-rated group of newcomers to one of the most athletic teams in the nation. This will be Josh Pastner's best team at Memphis.




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18. Colorado Buffaloes
 The Buffs bring back the heart of Tad Boyle's team and will continue to defend and rebound. However, Colorado needs to score more efficiently.




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19. Villanova Wildcats
 The Wildcats made the NCAA tournament with a young team and will continue to get better. Ryan Arcidiacono will be one of the nation's best guards.




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20. Wichita State Shockers
 Gregg Marshall loses Malcolm Armstead and Carl Hall, but returns the core of his Final Four team, including Cleanthony Early and Ron Baker.




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21. New Mexico Lobos
 The Lobos lost Tony Snell to the NBA draft and Steve Alford to UCLA, though everyone else will be back. Craig Neal inherits a really good program.




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22. Harvard Crimson
 Tommy Amaker retains most of his rotation from a team that won its third Ivy League title in a row, earned its second straight NCAA tournament bid and its first-ever NCAA win. Amaker also brings in star recruit Zena Edosomwan and gets Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry back.




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23. Virginia Cavaliers
 The Cavaliers were an NCAA tournament team in 2013; it's just that the selection committee didn't notice. Four of five starters return, including All-ACC guard Joe Harris.




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24. Wisconsin Badgers
 Sam Dekker should take over as a star for Bo Ryan, and even though the Badgers don't look it on paper, Ryan will make this into a top 25 team.




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25. Stanford Cardinal
 The Cardinal return Dwight Powell, Chasson Randle, Aaron Bright and Josh Huestis from a team that won 19 games and lost a ton of close ones.