Tampa Radio/ESPN Austin Rumor: Florida St Accepts Big XII Offer

[Abode4life]

In any dance card switches, there are a free things to remember:

1) The B1G puts a priority on AAU schools. From the ACC, that makes UNC, UVA, and Ga Tech the most likely targets. Any of those would also likely go B1G before going Big 12.
2) Private schools won't likely be anyone's targets. Simply not enough clout. That means Duke, Miami, Wake, and BC are likely ACC, merger, or table scraps.
3) Some state schools are linked by legislation. UNC/NC State and UVA/Va Tech might have a hard time separating.
4) Expanding markets matters. The SEC or B1G won't likely add state-overlapping schools in markets they have. There's no need for the SEC to add Clemson or Miami just like the B1G doesn't need Pitt or Syracuse (sorry Orange...they apparently already have NYC now).
5) Athletic program quality doesn't matter. Rutgers and Maryland made that abundantly clear.

With those in mind, I think FSU and Clemson go to the Big 12. If not Clemson, maybe Louisville. But none of those 3 provide a new market for the SEC or have the AAU status coveted by the B1G.

The B1G will then likely take Ga Tech and either UVA or UNC. I know there's legislation issues, but they'll take whichever they can get around. My money is on UNC being the main target because they already have a foothold in Virginia through the DMV market delivered by Maryland.

Then the SEC takes the leftover legislative break (guessing NC State) and pushes for either one of the Virginia schools or tries to raid the Big 12 again.

In the end, the Big East and ACC will have to merge or die. It'll be interesting to see what amalgamation comes of that, and if they have room for basketball only schools.

My question now with Notre Dame getting back to the National Championship, and with all of this happening, do they rethink them going on their own?  Granted their reasoning for joining the ACC was to help with scheduling, and the combining of conferences would only inhibit them more as there will be less non-con games for the super conferences, but does their pride of "We're Notre Dame" get the best of them and they try to go alone in Football.  That could be an opportunity for the basketball only schools to bring them back in and strengthen the league from a bball perspective. 

[Aughnanure]

My question now with Notre Dame getting back to the National Championship, and with all of this happening, do they rethink them going on their own?  Granted their reasoning for joining the ACC was to help with scheduling, and the combining of conferences would only inhibit them more as there will be less non-con games for the super conferences, but does their pride of "We're Notre Dame" get the best of them and they try to go alone in Football.  That could be an opportunity for the basketball only schools to bring them back in and strengthen the league from a bball perspective. 

Notre Dame would be amazing to have back in the fold, but I doubt it. ND will join a conference (in football) when the CFB playoff system makes them (i.e., conference champs are eligible). I think they stay in the ACC no matter what - as it best supports their Olympic sports and will still be a good basketball league- even with possible defections.

I think at least 6 of these 8 will be part of the ACC after the B1G, Big XII and SEC get their to their magic 16:

Duke, Syracuse, UConn, Boston College, Wake Forest, Louisville, Pitt, Cincy.

[GGGG]

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2012/12/03/In-Depth/Maryland.aspx

This is why I don't think you are going to see much happen.  I think the B10 has informal invitations out, and has for awhile, but no one is as desperate as Maryland was.  I don't think UVa, UNC and GT are begging for invitations right now.

[Abode4life]

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2012/12/03/In-Depth/Maryland.aspx

This is why I don't think you are going to see much happen.  I think the B10 has informal invitations out, and has for awhile, but no one is as desperate as Maryland was.  I don't think UVa, UNC and GT are begging for invitations right now.

So you think that even though none of the ACCs eight public schools turned a profit in 2010-11 means that if the SEC/BIG start pushing harder in fear of the Big 12 coming for FSU, they won't listen?  I think a lot of people are more in fear of the unknown, which is why they would make a move more than any rational thought process. 

[Pakuni]

So you think that even though none of the ACCs eight public schools turned a profit in 2010-11 means that if the SEC/BIG start pushing harder in fear of the Big 12 coming for FSU, they won't listen?  I think a lot of people are more in fear of the unknown, which is why they would make a move more than any rational thought process. 

I tend to agree. I think everyone is in panic mode right now and will jump at the first opportunity to grab on to a situation they believe is less tenuous than their own.
And I love the irony that in just about 12 short months the ACC has gone from poacher to poachee.

[MUEng92]

Ditto!  I have a different but similar smart phone problem.  I keep trying to scroll threads on MUScoop to read posts and I always seem to accidently press "Report to Moderator".  It's quickly followed by some curse words and "no, no, no" while hitting the back button.  I apologize in advance to anyone.

Conservatively, I have probably "almost reported" about fifty posts in the last couple years.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Ditto!  I have a different but similar smart phone problem.  I keep trying to scroll threads on MUScoop to read posts and I always seem to accidently press "Report to Moderator".  It's quickly followed by some curse words and "no, no, no" while hitting the back button.  I apologize in advance to anyone.

I just reported you.   

[GGGG]

So you think that even though none of the ACCs eight public schools turned a profit in 2010-11 means that if the SEC/BIG start pushing harder in fear of the Big 12 coming for FSU, they won't listen?  I think a lot of people are more in fear of the unknown, which is why they would make a move more than any rational thought process. 

I don't think the ACC is in a panic mode at all.  They have lost one member - and added three.  The problem is that you can only leave your conference once - and sometimes its going to take more than $5M per year to get that to happen.  And I, and many others, have preached about the misleading "profit" figures from intercollegiate athletics.

[lurch91]

I find it interesting that the theory is that ESPN is the one that screwed the Big East over after the Big East turned down their contract offer a few summers ago.  The AD for Boston College seemed to confirmed that ESPN told the ACC who to poach from the Big East (Pittsburg and Syracuse).  Now, just a year later the dominoes that ESPN seemed to set in motion have just kicked the ACC in the crotch.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I find it interesting that the theory is thag ESPN is the one that screwed the Big East over after the Big East turned down their contract offer a few summers ago.  The AD for Boston College seemed to confirmed that ESPN told the ACC who to poach from the Big East (Pittsburg and Syracuse).  Now, just a year later the dominoes that ESPN seemed to set in motion have just kicked the ACC in the crotch.

What comes around goes around.

[JoBo2756]

This is so comical. I have no idea who is in the Big East and the ACC.

I'd love to see an infographic in the shape of a US map of all the changes in the past two years and the money signs on who is getting big contracts and paying big exit fees... might be insightful and put things in perspective.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

This is so comical. I have no idea who is in the Big East and the ACC.

I'd love to see an infographic in the shape of a US map of all the changes in the past two years and the money signs on who is getting big contracts and paying big exit fees... might be insightful and put things in perspective.

All of these exit fees could balance the stupid fucking budget.

[Aughnanure]

Big Ten eyes further expansion

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8718339/16-team-big-ten-michigan-state-spartans-ad-mark-hollis-sees-advantages

[avid1010]

I find it interesting that the theory is that ESPN is the one that screwed the Big East over after the Big East turned down their contract offer a few summers ago.  The AD for Boston College seemed to confirmed that ESPN told the ACC who to poach from the Big East (Pittsburg and Syracuse).  Now, just a year later the dominoes that ESPN seemed to set in motion have just kicked the ACC in the crotch.

i find this to be my number one concern as to why the acc won't fail.  i take everything on this board with the understanding that we're looking for reasons and articles to believe the acc will fail because of what they did to the beast, but i'm not sure i can see espn allowing for the acc to fail...here's to hoping i'm wrong. 

[Tugg Speedman]

i find this to be my number one concern as to why the acc won't fail.  i take everything on this board with the understanding that we're looking for reasons and articles to believe the acc will fail because of what they did to the beast, but i'm not sure i can see espn allowing for the acc to fail...here's to hoping i'm wrong. 

If this is true (and I do not doubt it) then it makes the ACC impending collapse more likely.

The SEC has a TV contract with CBS
The Big 10 has its own TV network
The Big 12 has a TV deal with ABC/ESPN and Fox

CBS, the BTN and FOX will all advise who from the ACC should be poached.  ESPN cannot control the SEC and Big 10.  It only has partial control over the Big 12.

ESPN cannot stop it and they started the process the other networks will follow,