First off, what a pleasure it is to have to really dig deep to find potential pitfalls. Well deserving of the preseason accolades and certainly a potential final four team. But we have to worry about something, so........
1. Injuries. Particularly up front, which leads to....
2. Depth up front.
3. Gold and Joplin playing together. Who guards the athletic wing, who guards the post?
4. Finding minutes for all of the guards.
5. Senioritis. I don't worry about it too much due to what we have seen from Oso and TKo, but it could happen.
6.. Shaka coaching in the tournament. Much like the 'February Fade' bullsht from last season, it is a thing until it is put in the rearview. Some troll will bring it up about the time MU gets to 25 wins and starts thinking about how high their seed will be.
Honestly, I am only worried about 1 and 2. If those two are avoided, it will be a great season.
I think defense in general is a potential concern. Per Hoop Explorer, our defensive points/100 possessions was 94.7 with O-Max on the floor and 105.0 with him off. Someone needs to step up to be that stopper, and no one has the combination of length and athleticism.
Last year I believed in team defense overcoming the losses of Morsell & Kuath, and to a point it did, but to contend for the title, our #43 defense probably needs to be in the top 20-25 range, which is a big jump without O-Max.
Not a one.
Quote from: brewcity77 on August 15, 2023, 09:07:09 AM
I think defense in general is a potential concern. Per Hoop Explorer, our defensive points/100 possessions was 94.7 with O-Max on the floor and 105.0 with him off. Someone needs to step up to be that stopper, and no one has the combination of length and athleticism.
Last year I believed in team defense overcoming the losses of Morsell & Kuath, and to a point it did, but to contend for the title, our #43 defense probably needs to be in the top 20-25 range, which is a big jump without O-Max.
I think Oso spends time on the perimeter guarding wings, when the post isn't huge. But yes, defense will need to improve.
Defense is why I think Chase eats into Joplin's minutes as the season goes on.
1. Per Tower, Injuries. We were very fortunate last year re injuries. Will things even themselves out this year?
2. Per Brew, Defense. OMax has left big shoes to fill.
TBH, every team is concerned with #1. We don't have nearly as many question marks as most of our opponents.
Agreed, Lenny. MU has fewer concerns than most.
My only real concern is Jop's D. Can he do enough on that end to allow him to stay on the court and go 5-7 from deep? Or, due to this inability, will Chase get more time.....better D at the expense of nailing 3 3s in a row?
My main question has been answered: Why didn't Shaka hit the transfer portal to replace OMax?
He has overachieved the past two years with two widely different stylistic teams and believes in his development from within philosophy. So, to me it will be fun to see his coaching system changes to this year's personnel and how he counters adjustments by other coaches? Jop, Gold and Zaide with Omax's minutes offer interesting possibilities and counters.
Some people just aren't happy unless they are miserable.
Quote from: warriorchick on August 15, 2023, 09:53:21 AM
Some people just aren't happy unless they are miserable.
First day on Scoop?
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on August 15, 2023, 09:51:10 AM
My main question has been answered: Why didn't Shaka hit the transfer portal to replace OMax?
He has overachieved the past two years with two widely different stylistic teams and believes in his development from within philosophy. So, to me it will be fun to see his coaching system changes to this year's personnel and how he counters adjustments by other coaches? Jop, Gold and Zaide with Omax's minutes offer interesting possibilities and counters.
Agree with this. I also think a significantly improved offense will help offset some of the potential defensive issues.
Quote from: tower912 on August 15, 2023, 08:56:05 AM
First off, what a pleasure it is to have to really dig deep to find potential pitfalls. Well deserving of the preseason accolades and certainly a potential final four team. But we have to worry about something, so........
1. Injuries. Particularly up front, which leads to....
2. Depth up front.
3. Gold and Joplin playing together. Who guards the athletic wing, who guards the post?
4. Finding minutes for all of the guards.
5. Senioritis. I don't worry about it too much due to what we have seen from Oso and TKo, but it could happen.
6.. Shaka coaching in the tournament. Much like the 'February Fade' bullsht from last season, it is a thing until it is put in the rearview. Some troll will bring it up about the time MU gets to 25 wins and starts thinking about how high their seed will be.
Honestly, I am only worried about 1 and 2. If those two are avoided, it will be a great season.
7. Scoopers pointing out there are things to worry about this team...
1) Frontcourt Depth
2) Can Gold/Jop defend in space, or on guards when switched? Ben really struggled with it, and Jop improved some as the year went on. But unless Shaka changes his defensive scheme, they'll need to do it.
3) Avoiding the long FG droughts that put a bunch of pressure on them. Usually involves a bunch of quick shots when it happens... can they have the maturity to realize it and work to get a good look?
4) How much of last year was sustainable? It was such a huge leap that I'd be lying to you if I said part of me didn't think some regression was coming.
Quote from: brewcity77 on August 15, 2023, 10:17:53 AM
Agree with this. I also think a significantly improved offense will help offset some of the potential defensive issues.
My issue with this is, is how "significantly improved" the offense can be.
On hoop ex, adjusted offensive efficiency was 119.8 last year, adjusted offensive efficiency with Omax was 124.8.
Our weakness in the offensive 4 factors are offensive rebounding and drawing fouls. One for one, Omax is better at both of those things than Joplin. Omax drew fouls at the highest rate on the team last year, and his average offensive rebounding was the third highest rate on the team.
Those factors increase with a dominant big. Timme, Garza, Banchero etc. It is hard to improve those as a group.
I don't see the offense getting bad, but i don't know how it "significantly improves". Even if Joplin improves his efficiency and if Mitchell creates for others a tiny bit more.
To me, there is more room to improve defensively even without OMax than there is to improve offensively without him.
Omax is a great defensive player, and forced missed shots constantly with the eye test. However numerically and box score wise his defensive numbers did not line up with the eye test. His defensive rebounding, blocks, and steals did not line up with the adjusted team defensive efficiency with him on the court.
Oso is the key to marquette this year.
Live streams
MU will have some defense issues this year with Omax leaving, but to many games last year Omax on offense was invisible. Jop and Ross will both be better than on the offensive side. Just concerned if Jop can be consistent.
I am absolutely thrilled for the 23-24 Warrior Squad. We have eight returning rotation players. Four upperclassmen of which had some kind of All League recognition. Just got a whole lot of extra practices because of foreign trip. In total, that is a great base to work off of. Not many teams have as much going for them as us.
Should get something defensively out of one of the freshman early on, and maybe a second toward the end of the year.
The team defense will be around as good metrically as they were last year. Shaka's scheme with guys in the program for multiple years will more than make up for the loss of one player.
I want to say the offense will drop off a bit, but I don't think that's the case as long as Kolek maintains his high level of play he did down the back stretch. We have two elite shooters on the perimeter and a great passer out of the high post. Mitchell keeps defenses honest with his prime time cutting ability.
I don't see much weakness on this team and we'll *forget about Omax in no time
*much respect to his time here
I'm a little concerned that I don't have any big concerns about the upcoming season.
I said it earlier this summer, but I really do not have a great feel on this team going into the season. I think they have a chance to be very, very good, but too many unknowns for me at the moment. I think we will see some twists on defense and that will be the key to success. With the number of athletic guards/players on the team I think they are going to play faster on defense than the previous two years.
Quote from: tower912 on August 15, 2023, 08:56:05 AM
First off, what a pleasure it is to have to really dig deep to find potential pitfalls. Well deserving of the preseason accolades and certainly a potential final four team. But we have to worry about something, so........
1. Injuries. Particularly up front, which leads to....
2. Depth up front.
3. Gold and Joplin playing together. Who guards the athletic wing, who guards the post?
4. Finding minutes for all of the guards.
5. Senioritis. I don't worry about it too much due to what we have seen from Oso and TKo, but it could happen.
6.. Shaka coaching in the tournament. Much like the 'February Fade' bullsht from last season, it is a thing until it is put in the rearview. Some troll will bring it up about the time MU gets to 25 wins and starts thinking about how high their seed will be.
Honestly, I am only worried about 1 and 2. If those two are avoided, it will be a great season.
Are you trying to increase my anxieties?? I have 0.0 concerns. :)
I'm concerned that the COLE crowd won't have much to post about this season.
Quote from: PointWarrior on August 15, 2023, 10:38:18 AM
7. Scoopers pointing out there are things to worry about this team...
8. Were doomed no matter what good or bad happens.
Quote from: jfp61 on August 15, 2023, 10:46:45 AM
My issue with this is, is how "significantly improved" the offense can be.
Expected this pushback. I think this offense could be remembered similar to 2015 Wisconsin, 2018 Villanova, and 2021 Gonzaga. We were elite at the rim and even without O-Max most of that production is back. And O-Max was a mediocre three point shooter. Joplin taking those shots should start to improve our long range accuracy and I think Kam, Ross, & Gold can all improve on their 3PFG% from last year.
I think we have historically good upside offensively, and the only obstacle I see to what should be the best offense in the country and one of the best of the kenpom era would be if Purdue sees more improvement from their sophomores than we do.
Quote from: brewcity77 on August 15, 2023, 01:31:55 PM
Expected this pushback. I think this offense could be remembered similar to 2015 Wisconsin, 2018 Villanova, and 2021 Gonzaga. We were elite at the rim and even without O-Max most of that production is back. And O-Max was a mediocre three point shooter. Joplin taking those shots should start to improve our long range accuracy and I think Kam, Ross, & Gold can all improve on their 3PFG% from last year.
I think we have historically good upside offensively, and the only obstacle I see to what should be the best offense in the country and one of the best of the kenpom era would be if Purdue sees more improvement from their sophomores than we do.
I still think Kopek has a ton of growth opportunity from behind the arc. That will make us almost unstoppable to have Kolek, Jones and Joplin all serious threats behind the arc.
Quote from: MU Fan in Connecticut on August 15, 2023, 12:37:09 PM
8. Were doomed no matter what good or bad happens.
We're doomed. And who isn't these days?
Quote from: panda on August 15, 2023, 01:39:01 PM
I still think Kopek has a ton of growth opportunity from behind the arc. That will make us almost unstoppable to have Kolek, Jones and Joplin all serious threats behind the arc.
Don't forget Ross and Stevie may improve too.
Quote from: brewcity77 on August 15, 2023, 01:31:55 PM
Expected this pushback. I think this offense could be remembered similar to 2015 Wisconsin, 2018 Villanova, and 2021 Gonzaga. We were elite at the rim and even without O-Max most of that production is back. And O-Max was a mediocre three point shooter. Joplin taking those shots should start to improve our long range accuracy and I think Kam, Ross, & Gold can all improve on their 3PFG% from last year.
I think we have historically good upside offensively, and the only obstacle I see to what should be the best offense in the country and one of the best of the kenpom era would be if Purdue sees more improvement from their sophomores than we do.
I like it Brew! And I like Goose's thinking we will play faster. This season can't start fast enough.
eFG% declines as does our record. Oh well. We'll still make the tourney.
Quote from: Jay Bee on August 15, 2023, 02:18:21 PM
eFG% declines as does our record. Oh well. We'll still make the tourney.
JayBee, in your opinion, will the team do damage in the tournament? Or crap shoot?
I think most think the record won't be the same as last year but the experience and depth will allow the team to go further in the tournament.
Second thought - my biggest concern for this team is the schedule. Non con will be a big challenge and the BE is going to be much, much more difficult this year than in previous seasons. The only truly bad team is Butler. Otherwise the bottom half of the league will all be at a minimum, very tough outs.
Come on Goose - too many unknowns? - they return 4/5 starters and 9 of the top 10 players and Shaka. I can see last year saying too many unknowns, but this year? I know you loved OMax, but it's gonna be alright..
The unknowns are the individual improvements in the off-season - Joplin, Chase, Gold in particular. This is all upside.
Quote from: Goose on August 15, 2023, 11:54:58 AM
I said it earlier this summer, but I really do not have a great feel on this team going into the season. I think they have a chance to be very, very good, but too many unknowns for me at the moment. I think we will see some twists on defense and that will be the key to success. With the number of athletic guards/players on the team I think they are going to play faster on defense than the previous two years.
Point
I am just saying I am not sure what my concerns would be at this time. I think they are going to be very good and be fun to watch. My not having a real big concern is a positive, not a negative.
My concern is the luck factor. I think we have a good chance to be better this year, but we may notwin 29 games.
Last year luck factors, which we cannot count on this year.
1. Staying away from injuries
2. Prosper tipping in game winner against Xavier
3. Xavier key player getting hurt.
4. Providence starter not playing against us.
5. Kalkenbrenner recovering from illness in our first game.
6. St. John's missing last shot in Big East tournament against us.
7. Uconn missing last shot in big East tournament against us.
The luck factor last year ran out on us, when Kolek hurt his thumb in NCCAA first round game.
Let's see if the team can rebound from the OMax breakup.
Quote from: muwarrior69 on August 15, 2023, 03:34:20 PM
Let's see if the team can rebound from the OMax breakup.
Rebounding couldn't be much worse.
Quote from: bilsu on August 15, 2023, 03:33:33 PM
My concern is the luck factor. I think we have a good chance to be better this year, but we may notwin 29 games.
Last year luck factors, which we cannot count on this year.
1. Staying away from injuries
2. Prosper tipping in game winner against Xavier
3. Xavier key player getting hurt.
4. Providence starter not playing against us.
5. Kalkenbrenner recovering from illness in our first game.
6. St. John's missing last shot in Big East tournament against us.
7. Uconn missing last shot in big East tournament against us.
The luck factor last year ran out on us, when Kolek hurt his thumb in NCCAA first round game.
In what world was that lucky?? We played extremely good D and they launched a prayer that had 0 chance to go in Kam started celebrating the moment it left his hand. Luck??
We beat Creighton in Creighton with Kalky. Boat raced them without. Luck??
How about the luck factor of our loss vs Providence having a 30 free throw disparity at home and beating us by 4 in 2 OT with multiple guys fouled out? Or the luck factor of TK injurying his thumb for the biggest games of the year.
Or the luck factor of losing every game except at Uconn in games that went to the final minutes/OT.
Yeah this team didnt win games on luck. We were fortunate to not have any injuries until tourney time TK. Thats about the only "luck" we benefitted from.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on August 15, 2023, 03:36:44 PM
Rebounding couldn't be much worse.
Our block% will surely go up
TKO has to be healthy or, like everything else, MU is doomed.
TKO's thumb is to Dom's foot...
Sorry Goose - Mis-interpreted your post.
Quote from: Goose on August 15, 2023, 03:00:20 PM
Point
I am just saying I am not sure what my concerns would be at this time. I think they are going to be very good and be fun to watch. My not having a real big concern is a positive, not a negative.
Quote from: Goose on August 15, 2023, 11:54:58 AM
I said it earlier this summer, but I really do not have a great feel on this team going into the season. I think they have a chance to be very, very good, but too many unknowns for me at the moment. I think we will see some twists on defense and that will be the key to success. With the number of athletic guards/players on the team I think they are going to play faster on defense than the previous two years.
Nevermind - saw your explanation above.
Quote from: bilsu on August 15, 2023, 03:33:33 PM
My concern is the luck factor. I think we have a good chance to be better this year, but we may notwin 29 games.
Last year luck factors, which we cannot count on this year.
1. Staying away from injuries
2. Prosper tipping in game winner against Xavier
3. Xavier key player getting hurt.
4. Providence starter not playing against us.
5. Kalkenbrenner recovering from illness in our first game.
6. St. John's missing last shot in Big East tournament against us.
7. Uconn missing last shot in big East tournament against us.
The luck factor last year ran out on us, when Kolek hurt his thumb in NCCAA first round game.
You can play that the other way though too.
1) Chase misses 3 shots on one possession to turn the tide against Purdue.
2) Chucky Hepburn's miracle 3 to force OT (and honestly his whole game).
3) Had Providence game won before a collapse in the last 5 minutes.
4) Kolek's injury was the reason we lost to MSU. If he is healthy, we're playing UConn on a Monday in April.
Did things go right? Sure. But things also went wrong that prevented us from going in to the tournament 31-3 and the overall top seed.
Lack of engagement from the fans because the marketing group sucks.
Quote from: brewcity77 on August 15, 2023, 08:34:05 PM
You can play that the other way though too.
1) Chase misses 3 shots on one possession to turn the tide against Purdue.
2) Chucky Hepburn's miracle 3 to force OT (and honestly his whole game).
3) Had Providence game won before a collapse in the last 5 minutes.
4) Kolek's injury was the reason we lost to MSU. If he is healthy, we're playing UConn on a Monday in April.
Did things go right? Sure. But things also went wrong that prevented us from going in to the tournament 31-3 and the overall top seed.
5) And we beat UConn 2 out if 3 so why stop at PLAYING on Monday night? Why nit proclaim we would have win a natty??!!
Love the enthusiasm Brew....for last year and this year. 29 wins was unbelievable....our offense was unbelievable......will it be better?
Better than last season??? And you say yes.
Odds are against that claim.
Concerns:
1) health- Osasere Ighodaro.
2) health- TyKo, very close second.
Gap
3) health- Kam.
Big Gap
4) Regression
Big Gap
5) Shaka in March
Like most of us, I'm extremely excited about this season.
It's a dream, and as a collective fanbase we have earned that dream.
Shaka, TyKo, Oso, Kam, and co have made this pending dream a possibility, now we just hope to see it become a reality.
So, concerns going into the season?
Not many beyond health. I sort of couple this with the "front court depth" concerns, because if this team is healthy in its main pieces it won't need any additional depth.
So, the health concerns go hand in hand.
Some would disagree, but I've got Oso as the biggest health piece because of the depth, or lack thereof, behind him. Then TyKo for obvious reasons and then Kam for less obvious.
That alone explains how good this team can be- your BEPoY isn't definitely considered your most important "health" piece going into the season. After all, we've got a lot more talent/depth in the 1-3 spots to cover a disaster.
Let's move on from health, because everyone will be healthy.
Up next, regression. Not very likely, but a lot of guys took a massive leap last season.
Let's say teams gameplan to shut down TyKo and the offense unravels, or Kam starts shooting 30% from 3 and can't get buckets at the hoop with ease, or Oso starts fouling and is unable to handle the post.
Again not likely, but there will always be a chance that someone takes a big step back, we just haven't really seen it from Shaka guys at MU yet.
Finally Shaka.
He's amazing, but just like the stigma of an amazing March coach followed him early in his career, so has the stigma of a quick March exit cat started to creep its head lately.
It'll be hard to match the regular season and conference tournament success of last year, but if MU doubles up on one or both then we will be truly blessed as fans.
If they don't, however, March will rule king in a season with such expectations as this.
Trip to the final 4 will rid of all the doubts.
Let's go.
Quote from: We R Final Four on August 15, 2023, 10:37:50 PM
5) And we beat UConn 2 out if 3 so why stop at PLAYING on Monday night? Why nit proclaim we would have win a natty??!!
Love the enthusiasm Brew....for last year and this year. 29 wins was unbelievable....our offense was unbelievable......will it be better?
Better than last season??? And you say yes.
Odds are against that claim.
Not really. Marquette still returns 83.9% of their volume scoring. When I dug into volume scoring numbers last year, the only place where all the teams showed the same trend was 0-19% of points lost. Those teams had a minimum 11 spot rank improvement in offensive efficiency and average improvement of 63.5.
Clearly the 7th ranked offense can't improve by double digits in rank, but the one constant I found was teams returning the vast majority of their scoring improved significantly in efficiency.
Quote from: brewcity77 on August 16, 2023, 05:08:04 AM
Not really. Marquette still returns 83.9% of their volume scoring. When I dug into volume scoring numbers last year, the only place where all the teams showed the same trend was 0-19% of points lost. Those teams had a minimum 11 spot rank improvement in offensive efficiency and average improvement of 63.5.
Clearly the 7th ranked offense can't improve by double digits in rank, but the one constant I found was teams returning the vast majority of their scoring improved significantly in efficiency.
I know we differ here, and it doesn't mean off eff can't improve even with my projection, but I project eFG% to decline from this past season, making a jump in off eff all the more challenging.
Why do you project the offense to be less efficient? Was last year an outlier? Less optimistic about incremental improvement? Does Joplin's likely increased offensive role project to make the offense more 3 heavy and therefore less efficient? A regression to mean at the rim?
The schedule is a whole lot tougher than anything we have seen in recent years. Plus, the Big East will be better this year with Rick Pitino taking over at St. John's, Ed Cooley reviving Georgetown and Villanova being better. Even DePaul will improve.
Why I'm not terribly worried is last year was a taste of what might be, especially if Tyler Kolek stays healthy. Our guys have some unfinished business from last year that must be handled.
F**k 'em!
UCONN being in the BEAST is motivation enough to have Shaka and the team fire on all cylinders.
As others have stated, my concern (as much as a top 15 team can have a concern) is defense. We were a mediocre defensive team last season. We have lost our best defender and are likely replacing him in the starting lineup with one of our two worst defenders from last season. Our offense can only get so much better, but our defense can get a lot worse. I love the Jopwagon, but I don't think his defensive ceiling is very high. I wouldn't be shocked if his minutes didn't change much from last season. He'll definitely start but I think his defense may limit how many more minutes he will pick up. I think we could see a heavy does of Chase at the 4 along with some Lowery if he's ready.
Quote from: tower912 on August 16, 2023, 08:10:13 AM
Why do you project the offense to be less efficient? Was last year an outlier? Less optimistic about incremental improvement? Does Joplin's likely increased offensive role project to make the offense more 3 heavy and therefore less efficient? A regression to mean at the rim?
Not JB but I've had similar thoughts looking at the numbers. Just subbing in Jop for OMax, Jop is the better shooter, but OMax was actually more efficient (in lower usage), mainly from making a lot of shots at the rim. If Jop makes our defense worse then our offense will also have less transition opportunities as well. And now your second team lost its volume bucket-getter. So that would be the case for a less efficient offense.
The counterpoint is that Jop's usage rate will go down in more minutes with the first team, and will focus on more efficient shots and receive less defensive attention, allowing his efficiency to increase. And maybe his shooting opens things up for others. Shaka and co will come up with new wrinkles that fit our personnel as they always do. Joplin maybe improves at getting points in the paint.
I'm really of the mind that Jop is the guy that can raise or lower this team's ceiling.
My thoughts on him are similar to where I was on Kam going into last season... that it's great they can get hot, but there needed to be major improvement mentally with their approach to the game. Kam really matured after the Ft. Myers tourney. His shot selection was better, his defense improved a ton. If Jop can replicate what Kam did I think this is a Final 4 team.
Honestly, my only concern is being healthy in March. TKO's injured thumb might have been the only thing that stopped us from a S16 appearance this past season.
I'm much less hung up on W/L's, seeding and November/December basketball than I was last season, when I was living and dying on the outcome of every game. We know what these guys can do.
If our squad is 100% good to go come tournament time we are a S16 squad or better.
As to improving offensive efficiency, the 2nd highest correlate for MU is OR%, which is dismal. I don't see that improving much with the roster or system but...
As to replacing Omax's highly efficient 2pt FG%, who is the dribble penetrator from the seam this year? Stevie? Chase? The Frosh? I don't see them being better than OMax so that means that the eFG% improvement has to come from the sum of the parts on treys which there is a lot of room for improvement. Possible.
That said, lots of room for improvement on defense, starting with rebounding. Hard to see with this roster other than Jop. Gold needs to improve greatly here to help. The changes this upcoming season will be interesting to see.
I see Gold improving his eFG% by hitting more than 30% of his threes as well as driving to the hoop. If I had to bet, I would say our efg% would be the same or better.
I think Ross improves his 3pt % as well
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on August 15, 2023, 09:18:12 AM
Defense is why I think Chase eats into Joplin's minutes as the season goes on.
All 3 incoming Freshman are elite defenders as well.
Defend or watch the game from the bench. We have plenty of options!
All three Freshman were elite defenders at a lower level. We don't know where they will be at game 1. Everyone takes a different amount of time to adjust, everyone takes a different amount of time to learn a new system.
What a weird thread to start
Yeah it is kinda strange to start a topic on the basketball team and actual concerns people may have. 🙄🙄🙄
Quote from: Jay Bee on August 16, 2023, 07:26:42 AM
I know we differ here, and it doesn't mean off eff can't improve even with my projection, but I project eFG% to decline from this past season, making a jump in off eff all the more challenging.
I haven't ran all the numbers I did last year that led to my high optimism for an eFG% improvement, but I feel good about us sustaining or improving our eFG%. We showed repeatedly that our 2PFG% was sustainable and another year in the system will only make for more easy looks provided by Kolek and Oso.
More important, I think this is a better shooting team than last year. If Gold returns to health, I like him and Ross to both be notably better long range shooters than they were a year ago. I also think Joplin and Jones can be lethal given the opportunities, and many of those opportunities will come from shots O-Max would've taken.
Even without O-Max, as a team we shot 57.5% from 2 last year. That -0.8% difference still would've been tied for 5th nationally. I like our long range improvement to offset that disparity.
But maybe that's just the optimist in me.
Quote from: Its DJOver on August 16, 2023, 04:03:19 PM
All three Freshman were elite defenders at a lower level. We don't know where they will be at game 1. Everyone takes a different amount of time to adjust, everyone takes a different amount of time to learn a new system.
All 4. But I get it with the RS part for CH.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on August 16, 2023, 09:42:28 AM
As to improving offensive efficiency, the 2nd highest correlate for MU is OR%, which is dismal. I don't see that improving much with the roster or system but...
As to replacing Omax's highly efficient 2pt FG%, who is the dribble penetrator from the seam this year? Stevie? Chase? The Frosh? I don't see them being better than OMax so that means that the eFG% improvement has to come from the sum of the parts on treys which there is a lot of room for improvement. Possible.
That said, lots of room for improvement on defense, starting with rebounding. Hard to see with this roster other than Jop. Gold needs to improve greatly here to help. The changes this upcoming season will be interesting to see.
OMax was effective at the rim but I really don't think he created many of those opportunities off the dribble on his own. I think more were in transition or others creating for him.
Quote from: Vander Blue Man Group on August 16, 2023, 07:33:41 PM
OMax was effective at the rim but I really don't think he created many of those opportunities off the dribble on his own. I think more were in transition or others creating for him.
Good point on him being a seam sealer. 64.6% of his made shots at the rim were assisted.
This is an interpretation of how positively I feel about this years squad
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CsgsETeo8lc/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
Quote from: MUfan12 on August 16, 2023, 09:29:22 AM
I'm really of the mind that Jop is the guy that can raise or lower this team's ceiling.
My thoughts on him are similar to where I was on Kam going into last season... that it's great they can get hot, but there needed to be major improvement mentally with their approach to the game. Kam really matured after the Ft. Myers tourney. His shot selection was better, his defense improved a ton. If Jop can replicate what Kam did I think this is a Final 4 team.
Plus Kam showed that he could finish and we were treated to seeing him take free throws, something he avoided as a frosh.
If we see a similar step-up from Jop, or Ben, or possibly Chase I like our chances. I thought the player development last year was impressive, and have to surmise that Shaka was directing it. If he does it again it's going to be a lot of fun watching this squad.
Not only was OMax's 2fg% excellent, but he actually got to the line.
Bye bye offense
Quote from: Jay Bee on August 17, 2023, 09:58:36 AM
Not only was OMax's 2fg% excellent, but he actually got to the line.
Bye bye offense
Back to scoring in the 50's?
If you spend all your time worrying about the bees, you're never going to get a taste of honey.
Quote from: 5DollarPitcher on August 17, 2023, 01:54:32 PM
If you spend all your time worrying about the bees, you're never going to get a taste of honey.
TMI
I see COLE season is early this year. Must be climate change.
Quote from: 1SE on August 18, 2023, 12:12:51 AM
I see COLE season is early this year. Must be climate change.
Everything negative is due to global warming
glancing at jops fg% & 3pt%, he needs consistency. if you look at them, his numbers range from wtf?? to wtf!! overall he's pretty good at around 40%, but if you put them on a graph, they look like a needle bouncing around on bubba's lie detector test.
jop levels it off a little bit
ben comes out confident
sean get's a little more pt
depth, rebounding, injuries
Quote from: Jay Bee on August 15, 2023, 02:18:21 PM
eFG% declines as does our record. Oh well. We'll still make the tourney.
BINGO!
It's amazing how well we shot in Conf play a year ago. 56.8% eFG%?! Can that be real?
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 22, 2023, 09:53:43 AM
BINGO!
It's amazing how well we shot in Conf play at ear ago. 56.8% eFG%?! Can that be real?
Year not ear
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 22, 2023, 09:53:43 AM
BINGO!
It's amazing how well we shot in Conf play a year ago. 56.8% eFG%?! Can that be real?
We are a whopping 2% lower in eFG at present (54.6%) while playing the 15th most difficult opposition D SOS, and with Stevie shooting 13% for the year from 3 down from his 32.5% average during his first two seasons.
Solid pat on your own back though. Well done.
Quote from: Elonsmusk on December 22, 2023, 10:26:56 AM
We are a whopping 2% lower in eFG at present (54.6%) while playing the 15th most difficult opposition D SOS, and with Stevie shooting 13% for the year from 3 down from his 32.5% average during his first two seasons.
Solid pat on your own back though. Well done.
Happy to place a wager. $100 donation funded loser to winner's charity of choice (winner gets tax deduction). If we match or beat last year's eFG% then you win. Lmk
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 22, 2023, 09:53:43 AM
BINGO!
It's amazing how well we shot in Conf play a year ago. 56.8% eFG%?! Can that be real?
Tyler on the ball.
When Tyler the maestro is on the ball more the eFG% goes way up. So many easy looks and easy baskets.
When he's not Tyler the Creator as much the entire team suffers, as does the stat.
The drop in transition offense success doesn't help either.
It just seems like baskets are a bit harder to come by early this season.
Itll come around some as Shaka puts TyKo back on the ball more.
Quote from: Elonsmusk on December 22, 2023, 10:26:56 AM
We are a whopping 2% lower in eFG at present (54.6%) while playing the 15th most difficult opposition D SOS, and with Stevie shooting 13% for the year from 3 down from his 32.5% average during his first two seasons.
Solid pat on your own back though. Well done.
I find myself on Team Ners surprisingly often lately.
Quote from: TSmith34, Inc. on December 22, 2023, 05:20:25 PM
I find myself on Team Ners surprisingly often lately.
2% efg is very different from 2% fg %
Quote from: Newsdreams on December 22, 2023, 07:32:29 PM
2% efg is very different from 2% fg %
The winning formula is 2e%^fg/blk%
I think this team is great at its peak. I just have a feeling they are going to drop a handful of games starting with Creighton.
Could see them starting league play like UConn did last year at like 4-5 or 5-6 if they keep playing poorly. They just seem off to me...not as crisp or consistent.
Whatever happens, I just hope they stay healthy and peak at the right time.
Doctor V
The ball has to be in Kolek's hands as much as possible. The amount of open looks created when he is running the show is extremely high.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 22, 2023, 09:33:25 PM
I think this team is great at its peak. I just have a feeling they are going to drop a handful of games starting with Creighton.
Do you think Creighton is playing at its peak?
Which convinces you more of Creighton's at-peak play - its 15-point loss to a .500 UNLV squad or its home loss to a Nova team that was playing without its leader?
Quote from: Goose on December 22, 2023, 09:37:08 PM
Doctor V
The ball has to be in Kolek's hands as much as possible. The amount of open looks created when he is running the show is extremely high.
Yup, I started an entire thread about it.
And in a foreshadow thread a few weeks prior, while the squad was cooking, I asked if we should be concerned about how much lower than last year assist average.
He's a maestro, a wizard, and makes everyone around him better.
The looks become plentiful when he's in control.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 22, 2023, 09:33:25 PM
I think this team is great at its peak. I just have a feeling they are going to drop a handful of games starting with Creighton.
Could see them starting league play like UConn did last year at like 4-5 or 5-6 if they keep playing poorly. They just seem off to me...not as crisp or consistent.
Whatever happens, I just hope they stay healthy and peak at the right time.
That's a stretch, a huge one. Sure, they might lose to Creighton, a very good team, but I'd be pretty surprised because they are cooking at home.
After that, they should win 5 of the next 6- even with roadies at very tough defensively (and inept offensively) SH and StJ.
7-0 or 6-1 in the next 7 (overall 8-1 or 7-2) is much more likely than 4-5 imo.
Btw, I agree that they seem a bit "off" and not as "crisp" as they have been in the past but I still think the above is true.
Quote from: DoctorV on December 22, 2023, 10:12:22 PM
That's a stretch, a huge one. Sure, they might lose to Creighton, a very good team, but I'd be pretty surprised because they are cooking at home.
After that, they should win 5 of the next 6- even with roadies at very tough defensively (and inept offensively) SH and StJ.
7-0 or 6-1 in the next 7 (overall 8-1 or 7-2) is much more likely than 4-5 imo.
Btw, I agree that they seem a bit "off" and not as "crisp" as they have been in the past but I still think the above is true.
SJU is definitely more of an offensive team than defensive
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on December 22, 2023, 10:21:08 PM
SJU is definitely more of an offensive team than defensive
Oh yea, I forget the Rick hasn't taken into effect yet.
Give it a bit of time. They held their last two opponents to 55 and 66 (X).
Will probably give up 85 to a hungry after a loss UConn next time out but they will be tough defensively by mid to late Jan imo.
Currently 46O and 69D (alright alright) on KenPom.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 22, 2023, 09:33:25 PM
I think this team is great at its peak. I just have a feeling they are going to drop a handful of games starting with Creighton.
Could see them starting league play like UConn did last year at like 4-5 or 5-6 if they keep playing poorly. They just seem off to me...not as crisp or consistent.
Whatever happens, I just hope they stay healthy and peak at the right time.
If we're setting the win total on the first 9 Big East games at 4.5 or 11 games at 5.5 I'm taking the over and I'll bet the house on it. Have you even looked at our schedule through 11? We still have DePaul and Georgetown in there. My money is on 2-3 or 3-4 at worst in the other games during those stretches (especially with 4 at home).
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 22, 2023, 10:49:22 PM
If we're setting the win total on the first 9 Big East games at 4.5 or 11 games at 5.5 I'm taking the over and I'll bet the house on it. Have you even looked at our schedule through 11? We still have DePaul and Georgetown in there. My money is on 2-3 or 3-4 at worst in the other games during those stretches (especially with 4 at home).
3-4 in those other games would be insane.
Marquette should be favored in every single game. I know you've got to tip the ball and go out and play, but that would be mathematically absurd.
Would have to lose all 3 on the road at SH, StJ, and Nova- all of which Marquette is better than and have softer home court advantages than Providence- and lose to Creighton, Butler, Nova at home.
I guess it's not out of the realm of possibility, and you did say 'at worst,'
but that would be a wild bad stretch for this quality of a team.
I stand by 0-1 losses being a much more likely outcome in the next 9 than 3-4.
I know winning all 9 would be very very hard, but losing only 1 would seem more likely to me than losing 4.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 22, 2023, 10:49:22 PM
If we're setting the win total on the first 9 Big East games at 4.5 or 11 games at 5.5 I'm taking the over and I'll bet the house on it. Have you even looked at our schedule through 11? We still have DePaul and Georgetown in there. My money is on 2-3 or 3-4 at worst in the other games during those stretches (especially with 4 at home).
Just a lot less gimme games it seems. Seton Hall and Butler are suddenly decent teams. Bound to slip up at some point.
Not worried about the end goal.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 22, 2023, 11:15:34 PM
Just a lot less gimme games it seems. Seton Hall and Butler are suddenly decent teams. Bound to slip up at some point.
Not worried about the end goal.
That is much different than having us losing 5 of 9 and slipping up over and over.
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on December 22, 2023, 11:18:13 PM
That is much different than having us losing 5 of 9 and slipping up over and over.
Is it? UConn did it last year. They were 5-6 in league play on January 25th. The league is a lot better as a whole this year. Hopefully regardless of results it prepares them better for March.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 23, 2023, 12:06:50 AM
Is it? UConn did it last year. They were 5-6 in league play on January 25th. The league is a lot better as a whole this year. Hopefully regardless of results it prepares them better for March.
Yeah, you're not understanding.
First you said you could see a Uconn like start of 4-5(absurd)
You then said in the next post that we are "bound to slip up at some point"
4-5 is not slipping up at some point. That is slipping up repeatedly.
Weve already slipped up and I think most of us could see it happen 1 or 2 more times. 4 more in the next 7?? 1. not happening and 2. That is no longer slipping up.
...and the eFg% continues to drop
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 22, 2023, 11:15:34 PM
Just a lot less gimme games it seems. Seton Hall and Butler are suddenly decent teams. Bound to slip up at some point.
Not worried about the end goal.
Yeah. I'm pretty confident we're about to go on a solid win streak. Providence, IMO, was the fourth toughest game on the schedule. Third toughest road game. Plus it's a tough matchup. You could make the argument that @Nova is tougher too but I think it's a far more favorable matchup for this squad.
Quote from: Goose on December 22, 2023, 09:37:08 PM
Doctor V
The ball has to be in Kolek's hands as much as possible. The amount of open looks created when he is running the show is extremely high.
I agree with this analysis
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 22, 2023, 11:15:34 PM
Just a lot less gimme games it seems. Seton Hall and Butler are suddenly decent teams. Bound to slip up at some point.
Not worried about the end goal.
Again ... what about Creighton tells you it's at the peak? Its 20+ point loss to Colorado State?
This isn't quite as bad as your Georgia Tech prediction last year, but it's similarly based on emotion and silliness.
eFG% down to 53.3%. 45.9% in Conf. Brutal.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 07, 2024, 01:20:33 PM
eFG% down to 53.3%. 45.9% in Conf. Brutal.
Can't shoot