For the first time since 2019, Marquette will be in the Top-16 Reveal when the Selection Committee gives us a sneak preview tomorrow. Will they be as high as the Bracket Matrix consensus, or is there reason to think they could be on a different line than most expect? We preview the reveal line-by-line and have a new S-Curve and Bracket as well.
https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2023/02/top-16-reveal-preview.html
Good stuff Brew! Thanks.
If we win the BE tournament, how high should we be? In other words, what is our limit?
Can you explain what the RAP score is? Is it something calculated using the five metrics that appear on the NCAA NET Team Sheets? Like a weighting of the 2 Results based metrics and the 3 Predictive metrics?
Quote from: 1990Warrior on February 18, 2023, 05:15:23 AM
If we win the BE tournament, how high should we be? In other words, what is our limit?
If we win out until MSG, we likely end up as a 3. Win convincingly and get some luck ahead of us and sneaking onto tht 2 isn't impossible.
all of the teams in the top 16 have "achilles heals"
if our guys could all come out together and gel for a nice stretch at the right time...holy hell this could get really really fun
we've been blessed with a team and a coach who've seemed to have one or two guys bubble to the top giving us one of the most exciting seasons in quite some time. 6 different players with the sotg-have 3-4 of them put together a nasty string of march together, we will be the talk of the NCAA baby. stay healthy my friends
It seems that where is as important as seed.
Having the NCAA quarter finals in Minneapolis in 2003 with a huge fan base in the crowd made a humungous difference.
Put us in deep south, or far west and have to hope the boys don't get paired with teams from that area.
Why would a top 4 be lined up with the overall #1? Does not bother me, but the #1 might not love it.
Quote from: mu_eyeballs on February 18, 2023, 07:18:06 AM
Why would a top 4 be lined up with the overall #1? Does not bother me, but the #1 might not love it.
When it comes to bracketing rules, the top 1 and top 2 cannot be bracketed together. That's not the case further down. This will be interesting to watch, however. Whether the Selection Committee seems to favor balancing the seed strength or favorable geography will influence my future articles.
Quote from: mu_eyeballs on February 18, 2023, 07:18:06 AM
Why would a top 4 be lined up with the overall #1? Does not bother me, but the #1 might not love it.
I think a lot of that placement has to do with the challenge of separating teams from the same conference so they don't meet until later in the tournament.
For example, this seed list has 5 Big 12 teams in the top 16. The 4 highest of those 5 have to be placed in different regions, and that requires placement of teams that are a little different than what you'd get if the S curve was followed strictly.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 18, 2023, 07:29:28 AM
When it comes to bracketing rules, the top 1 and top 2 cannot be bracketed together. That's not the case further down. This will be interesting to watch, however. Whether the Selection Committee seems to favor balancing the seed strength or favorable geography will influence my future articles.
I can't remember but do they also give the locations with this reveal?
The Big East is the 3rd best conference in Pomeroy but 7 conferences rated above the leader. And then the sixth place BE team is higher seeded than the leader? Something is off with the numbers this year and I think it is the conference component (recency).
Quote from: CountryRoads on February 18, 2023, 07:47:01 AM
I can't remember but do they also give the locations with this reveal?
I think only the regionals but not the first and second round pods.
Quote from: wisblue on February 18, 2023, 08:30:25 AM
I think only the regionals but not the first and second round pods.
Thanks, makes sense. Kansas City against Kansas wouldn't be fun so that'd be my last pick. Would for sure go to the Louisville region if they made it so that's my top pick. Vegas and NYC are awesome cities to play in so those would be cool also. Obviously not something to worry about at this moment though.
I understand not factoring conference standing into NCAA seedlings and selections when conferences play an unbalanced schedule. But in conferences with a true round robin, it doesn't make sense not to consider it when comparing teams.
For example, Marquette and UConn have the exact same schedule for 2/3 of their season and one team is 4 games better than the other. It seems unreasonable not to factor that in.
And yes, I get that they don't and I'm not making an argument that they do factor it in and just don't tell people. I'm merely saying that in my opinion, they should.
Brew, selfishly, any chance we get Des Moines?
Easy drive.
Quote from: real chili 83 on February 18, 2023, 08:39:50 AM
Brew, selfishly, any chance we get Des Moines?
Easy drive.
I think it's unlikely. Des Moines is first choice for Kansas and first or second choice for most Big 12 schools & Houston. Things would have to fall just right. I think Columbus is looking like the closest realistic location. That will come down to us being ahead of Xavier most likely.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 18, 2023, 08:51:05 AM
I think it's unlikely. Des Moines is first choice for Kansas and first or second choice for most Big 12 schools & Houston. Things would have to fall just right. I think Columbus is looking like the closest realistic location. That will come down to us being ahead of Xavier most likely.
I agree, Columbus is most likely. Des Moines would require being ahead of a few Big 12 teams.
We'll know a bit more after the initial reveal.
Did I miss it ?
What TIME is the reveal ?
Quote from: Mu8891 on February 18, 2023, 10:15:06 AM
Did I miss it ?
What TIME is the reveal ?
It's on a show on CBS that starts at 11:30 AM CST.
The ESPN Gameday crew predicts MU as a 3 seed and number 10 on the seed list.
They placed MU in the Midwest Region (Louisville) with Kansas as the 1 seed (2 overall), Texas as the 2 seed (7 overall) and Miami as the 4 seed (15 overall).
If I understand them correctly, this regional grouping would violate the NCAA seeding principles by placing Texas and Kansas in the same region.
Their 1 through 16 are Alabama, Kansas, Purdue, Houston, UCLA, Tennessee, Texas, Baylor, Arizona, Marquette, Virginia, UConn, Creighton, Gonzaga, Miami, Kansas State.
Quote from: wisblue on February 18, 2023, 10:19:30 AM
The ESPN Gameday crew predicts MU as a 3 seed and number 10 on the seed list.
But ESPN hates us & BE
Quote from: wisblue on February 18, 2023, 10:19:30 AM
The ESPN Gameday crew predicts MU as a 3 seed and number 10 on the seed list.
They placed MU in the Midwest Region (Louisville) with Kansas as the 1 seed (2 overall), Texas as the 2 seed (7 overall) and Miami as the 4 seed (15 overall).
If I understand them correctly, this regional grouping would violate the NCAA seeding principles by placing Texas and Kansas in the same region.
Their 1 through 16 are Alabama, Kansas, Purdue, Houston, UCLA, Tennessee, Texas, Baylor, Arizona, Marquette, Virginia, UConn, Creighton, Gonzaga, Miami, Kansas State.
Wow creighton instead of Xavier?
The BEast really has the opportunity to do some damage in the tourney this year.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 18, 2023, 10:27:01 AM
But ESPN hates us & BE
Who hates Marquette more? ESPN, Fox or CBS? I know none of them like Marquette but who is the biggest hater?
Quote from: Uncle Rico on February 18, 2023, 10:38:05 AM
Who hates Marquette more? ESPN, Fox or CBS? I know none of them like Marquette but who is the biggest hater?
I go ESPN the 4 letter network plus they're Disney woke
Quote from: Uncle Rico on February 18, 2023, 10:38:05 AM
Who hates Marquette more? ESPN, Fox or CBS? I know none of them like Marquette but who is the biggest hater?
Wisconsin.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 18, 2023, 10:39:21 AM
I go ESPN the 4 letter network plus they're Disney woke
CBS hates Marquette pretty good, too, since they're in bed with the Big Ten and the Badgers
ABC, CNN, NBC, the BBC, the Daily Mail, and the Bozeman Daily Chronicle all hate Marquette too. They just don't have much chance to say so.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 18, 2023, 10:27:01 AM
But ESPN hates us & BE
There was a LOT of Creighton love and one of them mentioned Xavier as a team outside their top 16 that could make a deep run.
Quote from: Oldgym on February 18, 2023, 10:43:55 AM
ABC, CNN, NBC, the BBC, the Daily Mail, and the Bozeman Daily Chronicle all hate Marquette too. They just don't have much chance to say so.
We'll show those bastards in March
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 18, 2023, 10:39:21 AM
I go ESPN the 4 letter network plus they're Disney woke
Thank you Ron.
Quote from: Oldgym on February 18, 2023, 10:43:55 AM
ABC, CNN, NBC, the BBC, the Daily Mail, and the Bozeman Daily Chronicle all hate Marquette too. They just don't have much chance to say so.
The MECCA is hosting a reveal party...
Quote from: Uncle Rico on February 18, 2023, 10:38:05 AM
Who hates Marquette more? ESPN, Fox or CBS? I know none of them like Marquette but who is the biggest hater?
Newsmax. They literally never cover Marquette
Quote from: JakeBarnes on February 18, 2023, 10:57:37 AM
Newsmax. They literally never cover Marquette
AP poll is rigged
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on February 18, 2023, 10:48:18 AM
The MECCA is hosting a reveal party...
F---kers. We'll show them too.
So, based on Brew's write up, it looks like metrics are being favored over wins. At least based on the Houston over Kansas decision.
Although Arizona over Tennessee would be based on Q1 wins.
What a bunch of fucking bs. How much love does the big 12 get my god
Basically Iowa st and Kansas state can lose 100 games and still get a good seed.
Big 12 getting a lot of love.
#4 in the East.
Indiana ahead of us is LOL
I would take that region though....
Indiana at 13 is crazy.
Also believe they said Creighton was just outside the Top 16 at 17th? Most have them as a 6.
Iowa State and Kansas State at 11 and 12 is despicable. They both are overrated. Iowa State at 8 losses and Kansas State fading a bit too. They play each other today.
No UCONN?
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on February 18, 2023, 11:46:20 AM
Indiana ahead of us is LOL
Indiana, Iowa St and K-State all ahead of us is LOL.
Based on this, MU is closer to a 5 seed than a 3 if they lose to Creighton.
Damn. The committee loves the Big 12 and B1G. BE bunched up as 4 and 5 seeds.
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on February 18, 2023, 11:46:20 AM
Indiana ahead of us is LOL
Surprised Ohio State isn't ahead of us too.
Not much respect but I'd take that region in a heartbeat.
Quote from: mugrad_89 on February 18, 2023, 11:48:08 AM
Indiana, Iowa St and K-State all ahead of us is LOL.
Really surprised by the IU. Makes no sense.
Quote from: wisblue on February 18, 2023, 11:48:44 AM
Based on this, MU is closer to a 5 seed than a 3 if they lose to Creighton.
Yup. Makes me think 5 seed most likely, 3 seed the absolute ceiling.
Crazy.
IA state and K state BOTH as three seeds and no UConn? What is the NET being used for???
Quote from: goldeneagle91114 on February 18, 2023, 11:51:16 AM
IA state and K state BOTH as three seeds and no UConn? What is the NET being used for???
Sounds like it's selectively being used. No question the Big 12 is good, but they're literally getting SEC football level love.
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on February 18, 2023, 11:46:20 AM
Indiana ahead of us is LOL
I have been saying for a month that IU was dangerous. Not surprised at all by this.
Quote from: tower912 on February 18, 2023, 11:54:47 AM
I have been saying for a month that IU was dangerous. Not surprised at all by this.
Don't look now, but they're down 3 at half to Ill.
This is rather unfortunate but there's time to move up.
Quote from: goldeneagle91114 on February 18, 2023, 11:51:16 AM
IA state and K state BOTH as three seeds and no UConn? What is the NET being used for???
Yes. WTF???
Quote from: tower912 on February 18, 2023, 11:54:47 AM
I have been saying for a month that IU was dangerous. Not surprised at all by this.
They looked dangerous in Evanston. Hopefully Illinois punks them in Bloomington.
NET is a sorting tool to classify wins/losses, not seeding a team itself. Resume gets the seed, not their NET.
THAT BEING SAID - I think our resume is superior to IU...
Quote from: MuggsyB on February 18, 2023, 11:56:50 AM
This is rather unfortunate but there's time to move up.
Agree there is so much basketball to be played. Iowa State and Kansas State have much tougher schedules down the stretch and we can move ahead of them which would put us on the 3 line.
I think we'll have a right to complain if we finish 4-2 (1-1 in BET) and aren't on that 3 line.
Indiana as a 3 in Louisville was a joke.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 18, 2023, 11:42:42 AM
What a bunch of unnatural carnal knowledgeing bs. How much love does the big 12 get my god
They could potentially put 9-10 teams in. 8 teams are expected in, very strong conference if not the strongest, they beat each other up but don't hurt their seeding much.
I wish we'd been on the three line, but I'll take this.
I think as long we take 2 or fewer losses ROS, we should still be in protected seed territory. Unless we lose twice to Creighton and they steal our seed.
Gonna be interesting to see what the committee does with the large number of Big XII teams in the bracket and the large number of BE teams on the 4-5 line (MU, X, UConn, Creighton, maybe Prov).
Quote from: goldeneagle91114 on February 18, 2023, 11:51:16 AM
IA state and K state BOTH as three seeds and no UConn? What is the NET being used for???
Not how it works. They mentioned Creighton and UConn are close to a 4 seed
Quote from: SaveOD238 on February 18, 2023, 12:05:18 PM
I wish we'd been on the three line, but I'll take this.
I think as long we take 2 or fewer losses ROS, we should still be in protected seed territory. Unless we lose twice to Creighton and they steal our seed.
Gonna be interesting to see what the committee does with the large number of Big XII teams in the bracket and the large number of BE teams on the 4-5 line (MU, X, UConn, Creighton, maybe Prov).
I have to think there's still time for the B12 to beat up on each other. I could see KSU and ISU falling back a bit.
Need to dig in, but feels like road wins against tourney teams really mattered. I can't think of much more rationale for those 3/4 lines. Would also explain UConn not being included.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 18, 2023, 12:03:03 PM
They could potentially put 9-10 teams in. 8 teams are expected in, very strong conference if not the strongest, they beat each other up but don't hurt their seeding much.
I get it, but at some point losses have to count for something.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-picks-schedule-predictions-for-texas-vs-oklahoma-and-more-top-25-games-saturday/
Needless to say, from where I thought we'd be at the start of the year, fighting about the 3/4 line is a wonderful spot to be.
Quote from: goldeneagle91114 on February 18, 2023, 12:07:13 PM
I get it, but at some point losses have to count for something.
Quality of losses matta.
I have no idea what criteria the committee is using. Big 12 and B1G seemed to get a boost for being strong conferences, but Arizona, UCLA, and Virginia received no penalty for being in worse conferences than the Big East.
Seems very inconsistent.
Quote from: cheebs09 on February 18, 2023, 12:07:55 PM
Needless to say, from where I thought we'd be at the start of the year, fighting about the 3/4 line is a wonderful spot to be.
Agreed but the 5/12 matchups are a nightmare. Seems like that's where the committee wants Marquette and Xavier to end up with their current placements.
It doesn't matter what we think, but I feel like Indiana at 18-8 with their resume is just too high.
Seems like Marquette is destined for a 5 unless they win out.
Was Seth Davis seriously asking about the entire B12 making it?
We need to win out
Quote from: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on February 18, 2023, 12:10:25 PM
I have no idea what criteria the committee is using. Big 12 and B1G seemed to get a boost for being strong conferences, but Arizona, UCLA, and Virginia received no penalty for being in worse conferences than the Big East.
Seems very inconsistent.
Need to look at resume overall. Many components. Our noncon SOS probably "hurts" us
Quote from: TallTitan34 on February 18, 2023, 12:11:59 PM
Was Seth Davis seriously asking about the entire B12 making it?
He also had the badgers ranked #20 like a week ago.
Quote from: TallTitan34 on February 18, 2023, 12:11:59 PM
Was Seth Davis seriously asking about the entire B12 making it?
I don't view Seth Davis as the brightest basketball analyst.
Quote from: TallTitan34 on February 18, 2023, 12:11:59 PM
Was Seth Davis seriously asking about the entire B12 making it?
If one of the 2 bottom teams wins the tournament 9 in at least get in.
Quote from: tower912 on February 18, 2023, 11:54:47 AM
I have been saying for a month that IU was dangerous. Not surprised at all by this.
Huh?
Dangerous and resume are completely different.
They dont seed off whose dangerous lol
Quote from: CountryRoads on February 18, 2023, 12:13:17 PM
He also had the badgers ranked #20 like a week ago.
Sweet Jesus.
Quote from: MuggsyB on February 18, 2023, 12:19:43 PM
Sweet Jesus.
I was slightly exaggerating, but there was a time where he was the only AP voter still voting for them.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on February 18, 2023, 12:11:35 PM
Agreed but the 5/12 matchups are a nightmare. Seems like that's where the committee wants Marquette and Xavier to end up with their current placements.
It doesn't matter what we think, but I feel like Indiana at 18-8 with their resume is just too high.
Seems like Marquette is destined for a 5 unless they win out.
Wut?? It will mostly depend on what MU & Xavier do the rest of the season. If we lose @Creighton could be a 5 seed.
So Arizona and ucla play in conference similar to the wac and get two seeds but Tennessee who has beaten 2 of the one seeds including Kansas on a nuetral court by 20 gets a 3 seed.
To be honest not much makes sense here.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 18, 2023, 12:13:06 PM
Need to look at resume overall. Many components. Our noncon SOS probably "hurts" us
No doubt Notre Dame and Georgia Tech being dog crap hurts us. As does not having a signature road win.
But there is no way Marquette and Virginia shouldn't be on the same seed line. Virginia has only one Q1A win and Marquette has three.
Very arbitrary and inconsistent application of the NET, use of quadrants, conference strength, and strength of schedule. conference.
Seems like they do this every year. They give credit to circular firing squad leagues for being 'tough', which leads to a lot of teams getting over seeded (B1G).
If Indiana loses two more games (10 losses), are they really going to put them on the 3 or 4 line?
K State lost to Butller ffs.
Can someone dive into uclas scheudle and show me how they get a 2? Their best win is Maryland.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 18, 2023, 12:21:31 PM
Wut?? It will mostly depend on what MU & Xavier do the rest of the season. If we lose @Creighton could be a 5 seed.
UConn, Xavier, and Marquette all have better resumes than Indiana and they have Indiana ahead of all 3.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on February 18, 2023, 12:29:02 PM
UConn, Xavier, and Marquette all have better resumes than Indiana and they have Indiana ahead of all 3.
LOL ok whatever... there are a lot of games left. MU could even be out of 4 seed if they get upset or move to a 3 if UI4 screws up.
Lot of basketball to be played. Good news, they control their own destiny. Could not have asked for anything more than that in November.
Baylor a 2? We beat them by 26.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 18, 2023, 12:34:36 PM
LOL ok whatever... there are a lot of games left. MU could even be out of 4 seed if they get upset or move to a 3 if UI4 screws up.
Look at the resumes.
Indiana is 18-8. 5-7 in Q1. 3-1 in Q2.
KenPom- 20
NET- 17
Marquette is 21-6. 5-5 in Q1. 4-0 in Q2.
KenPom- 13
NET- 15
And you could argue Xavier and UConn being ahead of Marquette. Indiana was the biggest overvalue by the committee. Not deserving of the Top 4 seed.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on February 18, 2023, 12:38:28 PM
Look at the resumes.
Indiana is 18-8. 5-7 in Q1. 3-1 in Q2.
KenPom- 20
NET- 17
Marquette is 21-6. 5-5 in Q1. 4-0 in Q2.
KenPom- 13
NET- 15
And you could argue Xavier and UConn being ahead of Marquette. Indiana was the biggest overvalue by the committee. Not deserving of the Top 4 seed.
Not to mention committee put them a 2 hour drive away in Louisville. Committee loves putting big ten teams as close to home as possible.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 18, 2023, 12:25:44 PM
Can someone dive into uclas scheudle and show me how they get a 2? Their best win is Maryland.
UCLA's metrics are very strong and they have 11 Q1 and Q2 wins. Their win against Maryland was a true road game. Their OOC schedule was very good.
I think most people expected UCLA to be higher than 8 based on their resume.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on February 18, 2023, 12:38:28 PM
Look at the resumes.
Indiana is 18-8. 5-7 in Q1. 3-1 in Q2.
KenPom- 20
NET- 17
Marquette is 21-6. 5-5 in Q1. 4-0 in Q2.
KenPom- 13
NET- 15
And you could argue Xavier and UConn being ahead of Marquette. Indiana was the biggest overvalue by the committee. Not deserving of the Top 4 seed.
Is there a Beast representative on the committee this year?
Quote from: CountryRoads on February 18, 2023, 12:41:49 PM
Not to mention committee put them a 2 hour drive away in Louisville. Committee loves putting big ten teams as close to home as possible.
Yup. Too be clear, I'm fine with being a 4, but they should be the Top 4. Committee leaving 0 room for error while Indiana gets a longer leash with 8 losses and worse metrics. Not right.
Someone on twitter thinks that they didn't change the seeds after Wednesday. Either way, Indiana's resume is worse than Marquette's.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 18, 2023, 12:25:44 PM
Can someone dive into uclas scheudle and show me how they get a 2? Their best win is Maryland.
But it's at Maryland, and road wins over tourney teams are clearly being rewarded. For Marquette, those close but not quite trips to Purdue, Providence, and Xavier are looming large.
The Cyclones are 4-6 in their past 10 games, while Kansas State has lost five of its past seven games, but it's a sign of the Big 12's strength that both were still inside the top 12.
Reynolds said conference affiliation is not a factor in seeding or inclusion.
....not sure how he made it through that without cracking up ......
I get that the Big 12 is tough - but kstates coming off back to back losses to their bottom feeders
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on February 18, 2023, 12:38:28 PM
Look at the resumes.
Indiana is 18-8. 5-7 in Q1. 3-1 in Q2.
KenPom- 20
NET- 17
Marquette is 21-6. 5-5 in Q1. 4-0 in Q2.
KenPom- 13
NET- 15
And you could argue Xavier and UConn being ahead of Marquette. Indiana was the biggest overvalue by the committee. Not deserving of the Top 4 seed.
Look
MU SOS 47
Q-1 5-5 (1 win away)
Q-2 lost 0
Q-3 lost 1
Q-4 lost 0
IU4 SOS 14
Q-1 5-7 (3 wins away)
Q-2 lost 1
Q-3 lost 0
Q-4 lost 0
Resumes are very close but our Q-3 lost game and inferior SOS is probably the difference. If Illi wins today they probably fall and would have to get a good win, I don't know the rest of schedule.
Virginia sneaks by ND
https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/3456790/the-ncaa-revealed-the-top-16-teams-for-this-years-ncaa-tournament-bracket-lets-argue-about-it
Likes Marquette as final four team in this set up.
Also
https://twitter.com/Brad_Wachtel/status/1627003856696627205?t=pC3Qrcc-jT2n5wVcu8zjpg&s=19
UConn under seeded, IU over seeded
Indiana sneaks by Illinois
MU simply needs to win out in the regular season and apparently look good (eye test) while doing it. As much as MU fans loved the Xavier finish, committee members watching that game may not necessarily be impressed by beating a short handed team at home by one with terrible offense.
Brew, do style points come into play (meaning how good a team looks at the end of the season) in addition to simply a road win at Creighton?
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on February 18, 2023, 01:19:36 PM
MU simply needs to win out in the regular season and apparently look good (eye test) while doing it. As much as MU fans loved the Xavier finish, committee members watching that game may not necessarily be impressed by beating a short handed team at home by one with terrible offense.
Brew, do style points come into play (meaning how good a team looks at the end of the season) in addition to simply a road win at Creighton?
Not teal, we didn't cover.
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on February 18, 2023, 01:19:36 PM
MU simply needs to win out in the regular season and apparently look good (eye test) while doing it. As much as MU fans loved the Xavier finish, committee members watching that game may not necessarily be impressed by beating a short handed team at home by one with terrible offense.
Brew, do style points come into play (meaning how good a team looks at the end of the season) in addition to simply a road win at Creighton?
Typically no, or at least no more than the rest of the season. Based on today, I think maintaining the metrics and getting that Creighton win is most important. We already have a metric edge on the teams ahead of us, so I'm not sure how much running scores will help.
1 Alabama
2 Houston
3 Purdue
4 Kansas
5 Texas
6 Arizona
7 Baylor
8 UCLA
9 Tennessee
10 Virginia
11 Iowa State
12 Kansas State
13 Indiana
14 Marquette
15 Gonzaga
16 Xavier
Virginia and Indiana snuck by with wins
But Tennessee is losing and Iowa State is playing Kansas State.
Relax
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 18, 2023, 01:25:40 PM
Typically no, or at least no more than the rest of the season. Based on today, I think maintaining the metrics and getting that Creighton win is most important. We already have a metric edge on the teams ahead of us, so I'm not sure how much running scores will help.
Thanks. Did the reveal do more to confuse your bracket or confirm your suspicions/logic of how they are seeding?
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on February 18, 2023, 12:38:28 PM
Look at the resumes.
Indiana is 18-8. 5-7 in Q1. 3-1 in Q2.
KenPom- 20
NET- 17
Marquette is 21-6. 5-5 in Q1. 4-0 in Q2.
KenPom- 13
NET- 15
And you could argue Xavier and UConn being ahead of Marquette. Indiana was the biggest overvalue by the committee. Not deserving of the Top 4 seed.
You left off Q3:
Marquette: 5-1
Indiana: 3-0
I agree that Marquette should be seeded above Indiana but you have to show the whole picture. What's holding us back is that Wisconsin loss and lack of quality wins away from home. Our best non-home win is at #68 Seton Hall. Our second and third best are #83 Villanova (without Moore) and #98 St. John's. Indiana's top three on the other hand are #26 Xavier, #28 Illinois, and #71 Michigan. They also have the we lost when we had significant injuries card that they can play.
I think MU should be a three ...
And, frankly I don't think they can beat
Creighton. Please God ... not the
5/12 game !! Ugh
I don't think losing @Creighton would knock us down a seed line. I do think winning @Creighton could knock us up a seed line.
Indiana and Kansas State ahead of Marquette is a unnatural carnal knowledgeing joke.
Indiana isn't dangerous, they lost to a mediocre Northwestern team. And it's no secret I love northwestern
As a wise man once said, "F**k 'em."
Is there another bracket reveal next week? Or is it just a one time thing?
Quote from: marqfan22 on February 18, 2023, 02:14:22 PM
Is there another bracket reveal next week? Or is it just a one time thing?
This is the only one until Selection Sunday. If I remember right, it's not uncommon to see some kind of headscratching moves in the Top 16 of the final bracket compared to this reveal.
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on February 18, 2023, 01:38:40 PM
Thanks. Did the reveal do more to confuse your bracket or confirm your suspicions/logic of how they are seeding?
Initially, massive confusion. Been talking it through with a number of other bracket nerds and I think I've figured it out. They handled the top line differently than the rest of the bracket. Going to dig in deeper the next few days and readjust based on what we learned.
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on February 18, 2023, 01:53:17 PM
You left off Q3:
Marquette: 5-1
Indiana: 3-0
I agree that Marquette should be seeded above Indiana but you have to show the whole picture. What's holding us back is that Wisconsin loss and lack of quality wins away from home. Our best non-home win is at #68 Seton Hall. Our second and third best are #83 Villanova (without Moore) and #98 St. John's. Indiana's top three on the other hand are #26 Xavier, #28 Illinois, and #71 Michigan. They also have the we lost when we had significant injuries card that they can play.
That Wisconsin loss has been back and forth between Q2 and Q3 all season.
If the committee is going to put Wisconsin in, that OT loss to a tournament team shouldn't matter if it is Q2 or Q3, especially with Marquette's metrics.
I know it means nothing at all, let me say that, but having 4 more wins and 2 less losses yet being 3 spots behind Iowa State just looks wrong haha
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on February 18, 2023, 01:59:56 PM
Indiana and Kansas State ahead of Marquette is a unnatural carnal knowledgeing joke.
Indiana isn't dangerous, they lost to a mediocre Northwestern team. And it's no secret I love northwestern
Virginia in my opinion has no business being a 3 seed. ACC is weak and just this week they were barely able to beat Louisville and ND - the 289 and 164 Ken Pom teams - by a combined 5 points total.
Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 18, 2023, 03:09:34 PM
Virginia in my opinion has no business being a 3 seed. ACC is weak and just this week they were barely able to beat Louisville and ND - the 289 and 164 Ken Pom teams - by a combined 5 points total.
At the end of the day, it shows up as a win or loss on the resume.
Reaction from CBS Sports:
1. Disrespect for Big East is strong
2. Purdue's credentials slipping
3. Lots of Big 12 love
4. Indiana way too high
I guess Scoop has it's finger on the pulse of unaffiliated national reaction. Lots of agreement here (sorry Hoosier fans)
Quote from: WhiteTrash on February 18, 2023, 06:52:35 PM
Reaction from CBS Sports:
1. Disrespect for Big East is strong
2. Purdue's credentials slipping
3. Lots of Big 12 love
4. Indiana way too high
I guess Scoop has it's finger on the pulse of unaffiliated national reaction. Lots of agreement here (sorry Hoosier fans)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-march-madness-mens-bracket-preview-takeaways-indiana-too-high-committee-snubs-big-east/amp/
Barry Collier hates MU!
It's the Wisconsin loss...
Quote from: PointWarrior on February 18, 2023, 08:02:26 PM
It's the Wisconsin loss...
For Marquette's seed? Nah, it's the Purdue, Providence, and Xavier losses.
After seeing the top 16 reveal and looking at the team sheets of the top 20 or so teams, unless and until something dramatic happens, I am going to focus my attention on the other teams that the NCAA listed as 10-16 (Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State, Indiana, Gonzaga, and Xavier) plus UConn, Creighton, St. Mary's, Miami, TCU, and San Diego State.
I see these 12 teams as MU's competition for the last three 3 seeds, and the 4 and 5 seeds. For now, I am conceding the first 9 spots because those teams all have metrics and/or quality wins that MU will not be able to catch unless somebody completely collapses. With only one Quad 1 game remaining before the BET, MU's chance to significantly improve its resume is pretty limited. A loss at Creighton would make a 3 seed look pretty unlikely.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 18, 2023, 08:10:09 PM
For Marquette's seed? Nah, it's the Purdue, Providence, and Xavier losses.
Here's the thing with that though-
All 3 of those teams have a COMBINED 2 losses at home for the entire season, by 3 total points.
Indiana won at Cintas by 2
Rutgers won at Mackey by 1
Providence has not lost at home.
Marquette lost by 5 at Purdue, after leading for a majority of the game.
Lost by 5 at Providence in 2OT after folding late and by 4 at Xavier.
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, but those road games for Marquette were against teams that are 41-2 at home, and all were extremely competitive.
So, no massive road wins, but the eye test.
I just think that it seems obvious that from what we saw the committee come up with today, even though the "book" says that conference affiliation and conference record no matta, they overvalued the B12 and undervalued the BE.
In the case of the B12, Conference record do matta in the inverse- more losses in conference is "OK" because the B12 is so "beastly."
It's all good though, the 3 seed is still in play if Marquette wants it.
I don't think they will stay on the 4 line if they outright win the BE Conference
Quote from: DoctorV on February 18, 2023, 11:07:05 PM
It's all good though, the 3 seed is still in play if Marquette wants it.
Ah, if only it were as easy in sports as "wanting it."
Isn't part of the problem that the BE is SOOO bad at the bottom whereas the B12 is pretty solid throughout? West Virginia and Oklahoma are miles better than DePaul and Georgetown. And I would guess Okie State and Texas Tech are better than Butler and SJU.
Quote from: DoctorV on February 18, 2023, 11:07:05 PM
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and NET.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on February 19, 2023, 06:49:30 AM
Isn't part of the problem that the BE is SOOO bad at the bottom whereas the B12 is pretty solid throughout? West Virginia and Oklahoma are miles better than DePaul and Georgetown. And I would guess Okie State and Texas Tech are better than Butler and SJU.
I think that is exactly the issue for the Big East. In addition to direct impact on the NET and SOS, the league offers a lot fewer opportunities for those Quad 1 wins that the Committee clearly values highly (see Kansas State).
If you look at the teams that the Committee placed higher than their NET, the reason can usually be found in those high quality wins.
Quote from: wisblue on February 19, 2023, 07:01:02 AM
I think that is exactly the issue for the Big East. In addition to direct impact on the NET and SOS, the league offers a lot fewer opportunities for those Quad 1 wins that the Committee clearly values highly (see Kansas State).
If you look at the teams that the Committee placed higher than their NET, the reason can usually be found in those high quality wins.
It feels like quantity is being overemphasized a little. For example, Marquette is 5-5 in Q1 games while Iowa State is 6-6 and Kansas State is 8-8. All 3 teams have the same Q1 win% but the Big 12 teams have more opportunities.
This is where I feel predictive rankings and NET need to be factored a little heavier. Marquette and Iowa State are one spot apart in NET but Kansas State is 5/6 spots behind.
That tells me Marquette and Iowa State belong on the same seed line and Kansas State should be a line below. But the committee favors pure volume of Q1 wins, which will always favor the Big 12 teams.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on February 19, 2023, 06:49:30 AM
Isn't part of the problem that the BE is SOOO bad at the bottom whereas the B12 is pretty solid throughout? West Virginia and Oklahoma are miles better than DePaul and Georgetown. And I would guess Okie State and Texas Tech are better than Butler and SJU.
In addition to the two turkeys , this year the Big East did not perform as well as it usually does in the non conference part of the schedule . It did not pick up as many signature wins and also had too many losses to weak teams in that period .
Quote from: DoctorV on February 18, 2023, 11:07:05 PM
Here's the thing with that though-
All 3 of those teams have a COMBINED 2 losses at home for the entire season, by 3 total points.
Indiana won at Cintas by 2
Rutgers won at Mackey by 1
Providence has not lost at home.
Marquette lost by 5 at Purdue, after leading for a majority of the game.
Lost by 5 at Providence in 2OT after folding late and by 4 at Xavier.
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, but those road games for Marquette were against teams that are 41-2 at home, and all were extremely competitive.
So, no massive road wins, but the eye test.
I just think that it seems obvious that from what we saw the committee come up with today, even though the "book" says that conference affiliation and conference record no matta, they overvalued the B12 and undervalued the BE.
In the case of the B12, Conference record do matta in the inverse- more losses in conference is "OK" because the B12 is so "beastly."
It's all good though, the 3 seed is still in play if Marquette wants it.
I don't think they will stay on the 4 line if they outright win the BE Conference
I think the point, though, is that the failure to win at least one of those games has kept MU from having a really strong road win on its resume, and that is their weakest point. A win at Creighton would fill in that hole.
It's not that those were damaging losses, but they were damaging lost opportunities.
Quote from: MU82 on February 18, 2023, 11:15:17 PM
Ah, if only it were as easy in sports as "wanting it."
thanks for the enlightenment. Profound.
I get it all the metrics point to the b12 being stronger but at some point our win vs Baylor has to count for something.
You are going to tell me that the winner of the big east which by the way has 5 ranked teams in it and 2 teams that thrashed two teams seeded higher in Baylor and Iowa state deserves to have 5 teams seeded higher than the number 1 big east team?
I know the majority will play itself out but to be honest if you have to pick from UConn, Marquette Kansas st, Iowa St, Creighton and Xavier I'm not sure anyone is going to pick Iowa st and Kansas st to advance further in the tournament.
From The Athletic's Brian Bennett:
What was the biggest surprise?
For me, it was Indiana at No. 13 overall. While the Hoosiers have had some big wins (at Xavier, versus Purdue), they also went through a stretch earlier this year when they lost six out of nine games and have dealt with some injuries. At 17th in the NET, 20th in KenPom and 20th in Strength of Record heading into Saturday, Indiana seemed right on the borderline for a No. 4 seed. Instead, the committee made the Hoosiers the top team on the No. 4 line, ahead of Marquette, which has the same number of Quad 1 wins (five), two fewer losses and a better NET ranking (15th).
But the committee clearly believes in Indiana's potential when the Hoosiers are fully healthy. And by its placement in the South Region, which goes through Louisville, IU could potentially have a more advantageous path than current Big Ten leader and rival Purdue. That's probably not going over too well in West Lafayette at the moment (not to mention in Tuscaloosa, as Alabama would potentially have to deal with a heavily pro-IU crowd in a Sweet 16 game at the KFC Yum! Center). The fact that Reynolds, the committee chair, played for Bob Knight at Indiana will give fuel to any conspiracy-minded fans. But the committee is simply following its own complicated geographic rules.
How much do conference tournaments matta, or is it decided by regular season records only for top seeding?
Quote from: real chili 83 on February 19, 2023, 08:44:51 AM
How much do conference tournaments matta, or is it decided by regular season records only for top seeding?
I believe Cracked Sidewalks guys wrote a piece a few years back saying conference tourney results have had little bearing on seeding
Quote from: Uncle Rico on February 19, 2023, 08:45:51 AM
I believe Cracked Sidewalks guys wrote a piece a few years back saying conference tourney results have had little bearing on seeding
They don't matter a lot because the games are treated just like any other game played during the season. By that time teams have played about 30 games, so the result of one more will have a negligible impact.
I think they have the most impact for teams on the bubble who need a high quality win or two to beef up their resume.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 19, 2023, 08:04:41 AM
I get it all the metrics point to the b12 being stronger but at some point our win vs Baylor has to count for something.
You are going to tell me that the winner of the big east which by the way has 5 ranked teams in it and 2 teams that thrashed two teams seeded higher in Baylor and Iowa state deserves to have 5 teams seeded higher than the number 1 big east team?
I know the majority will play itself out but to be honest if you have to pick from UConn, Marquette Kansas st, Iowa St, Creighton and Xavier I'm not sure anyone is going to pick Iowa st and Kansas st to advance further in the tournament.
MU's win over Baylor does count for something. It's a Quad 1A win that factors favorably into the NET and other metrics. But, it's also just one game.
Iowa State and Kansas State both have wins over Baylor too, and KSU's was on the road.
Focus on the number of road wins over good teams. IU won at Xavier, for example. I think that carried a ton of weight.
Quote from: tower912 on February 19, 2023, 09:13:52 AM
Focus on the number of road wins over good teams. IU won at Xavier, for example. I think that carried a ton of weight.
But UConn dominated both Alabama and Iowa State on a neutral floor. The committee basically ignored that. Those wins combined with UConn's computer metrics should have the Huskies in contention for a 3 seed. Their resume is better than Virginia's.
The inconsistent use of criteria is the most perplexing thing.
Quote from: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on February 19, 2023, 10:33:55 AM
But UConn dominated both Alabama and Iowa State on a neutral floor. The committee basically ignored that. Those wins combined with UConn's computer metrics should have the Huskies in contention for a 3 seed. Their resume is better than Virginia's.
The inconsistent use of criteria is the most perplexing thing.
Away wins >> Neutral win >> Home win plus Uconn Q3 loss @ home really hurts.
Quote from: real chili 83 on February 19, 2023, 08:44:51 AM
How much do conference tournaments matta, or is it decided by regular season records only for top seeding?
I have to believe it would benefit bubble teams the most that run the tables.
The rest either already know they are in the NCAA tourney or not.
Quote from: tower912 on February 19, 2023, 09:13:52 AM
Focus on the number of road wins over good teams. IU won at Xavier, for example. I think that carried a ton of weight.
Here is a quick summary of the Quad 1 true road wins for MU and the 12 teams I am following as their main competition for the 10-20 spots on the NCAA Seed List.
Marquette: Seton Hall (NET 69), 1-4 overall
Virginia: Michigan (65), Wake Forest (67) 2-3 (also beat Baylor and Illinois on a neutral court)
Iowa State: TCU (22), Oklahoma (63), 2-7
Kansas State: Texas (9), Baylor (12) 2-5
Indiana: Xavier (26), Illinois (27), Michigan (65) 3-6
Gonzaga: 0-2 (Neutral wins over Alabama, Xavier, and MSU)
Xavier:UConn (8) 1-2
Connecticut: Florida (53) 1-5 (Neutral wins over Alabama and Iowa State)
Miami: North Carolina (44), UCF (56) 2-3
Creighton: Seton Hall (69) 1-5
St. Mary's: None (Will be at Gonzaga this weekend) Best at Santa Clara (83)
TCU: Kansas(6), Baylor (12) 2-6
San Diego State: Utah State (35), 1-1
Especially in the case of Kansas State, those 2 top 10 road wins seem to be what is carrying their seeding. Their overall metrics are not that impressive: NET of 20 and RAP score of 22.8 (compared to 14 and 15.4 for MU). Also, the Selection Committee often says that it rewards teams that "put themselves out there" in OOC games, but KSU doesn't help itself there with an OOC schedule strength rated at 301. MU is at 140, which is worse than average for this set of teams
Quote from: wisblue link=topic=64272.msg1519753#msg1519753 date=
They don't matter a lot because the games are treated just like any other game played during the season. By that time teams have played about 30 games, so the result of one more will have a negligible impact.
I think they have the most impact for teams on the bubble who need a high quality win or two to beef up their resume.
Historically teams that finish .500 in the Big East don't make the NCAA tournament without at least one win in the BET.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 19, 2023, 10:42:23 AM
Away wins >> Neutral win >> Home win plus Uconn Q3 loss @ home really hurts.
Virginia's best road win is at 65 Michigan. They have beaten Baylor and Illinois on a neutral floor, but those are worse than UConn's neutral floor wins against Alabama and Iowa State.
UConn also has a better road win at 53 Florida. UConn has better metrics across the board. UConn has better wins than Virginia in all three environments (home, neutral, away.)
One Q3 loss should not drop UConn 7+ spots behind Virginia. The NCAA is a clown show, per usual.
This is my last comment on seeding. At this point, I'm expecting Marquette to drop to a 5 or 6 with no logical explanation. F*ck 'em. Win anyway.
Quote from: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on February 19, 2023, 11:19:47 AM
This is my last comment on seeding. At this point, I'm expecting Marquette to drop to a 5 or 6 with no logical explanation. F*ck 'em. Win anyway.
This is my worry it feels like the committee has set the precedent that Marquette is one questionable loss from dropping to the 6 line
So don't have a questionable loss.
Quote from: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on February 19, 2023, 11:19:47 AM
Virginia's best road win is at 65 Michigan. They have beaten Baylor and Illinois on a neutral floor, but those are worse than UConn's neutral floor wins against Alabama and Iowa State.
UConn also has a better road win at 53 Florida. UConn has better metrics across the board. UConn has better wins than Virginia in all three environments (home, neutral, away.)
One Q3 loss should not drop UConn 7+ spots behind Virginia. The NCAA is a clown show, per usual.
This is my last comment on seeding. At this point, I'm expecting Marquette to drop to a 5 or 6 with no logical explanation. F*ck 'em. Win anyway.
You are right. As Kolek would fondly say, "F#%k em"
Quote from: tower912 on February 19, 2023, 11:26:00 AM
So don't have a questionable loss.
Kansas State and Indiana have a few, and yet...
Quote from: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on February 19, 2023, 11:19:47 AM
Virginia's best road win is at 65 Michigan. They have beaten Baylor and Illinois on a neutral floor, but those are worse than UConn's neutral floor wins against Alabama and Iowa State.
UConn also has a better road win at 53 Florida. UConn has better metrics across the board. UConn has better wins than Virginia in all three environments (home, neutral, away.)
One Q3 loss should not drop UConn 7+ spots behind Virginia. The NCAA is a clown show, per usual.
This is my last comment on seeding. At this point, I'm expecting Marquette to drop to a 5 or 6 with no logical explanation. F*ck 'em. Win anyway.
They hate us
Do they have losses at home to Wisconsin or on a neutral floor to Mississippi State?
To be the best, you have to beat the best. A 4/5 seed versus a 2/3 seed means you have to do it one round sooner.
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on February 19, 2023, 11:32:00 AM
Kansas State and Indiana have a few, and yet...
Which ones? No Q3 or Q4 away or at home. So, for seeding no major questionable losses.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 19, 2023, 11:46:55 AM
Which ones? No Q3 or Q4 away or at home. So, for seeding no major questionable losses.
Butler flies off the page for one thing
I am looking forward to seeing us zoom up to the 3 line after our great road win Tuesday night!
Quote from: wisblue on February 19, 2023, 11:07:15 AM
Here is a quick summary of the Quad 1 true road wins for MU and the 12 teams I am following as their main competition for the 10-20 spots on the NCAA Seed List.
Marquette: Seton Hall (NET 69), 1-4 overall
Virginia: Miami (31) Michigan (65), Wake Forest (67) 3-2 (also beat Baylor on a neutral court)
Iowa State: TCU (22), Oklahoma (63), 2-7
Kansas State: Texas (9), Baylor (12) 2-5
Indiana: Xavier (26), Illinois (27), Michigan (65) 3-6
Gonzaga: 0-2 (Neutral wins over Alabama, Xavier, and MSU)
Xavier:UConn (8) 1-2
Connecticut: 0-5 (Neutral wins over Alabama and Iowa State)
Miami: North Carolina (44), UCF (56) 2-3
Creighton: Seton Hall (69) 1-5
St. Mary's: None (Will be at Gonzaga this weekend) Best at Santa Clara (83)
TCU: Kansas(6), Baylor (12) 2-6
San Diego State: Utah State (35), 1-1
Especially in the case of Kansas State, those 2 top 10 road wins seem to be what is carrying their seeding. Their overall metrics are not that impressive: NET of 20 and RAP score of 22.8 (compared to 14 and 15.4 for MU). Also, the Selection Committee often says that it rewards teams that "put themselves out there" in OOC games, but KSU doesn't help itself there with an OOC schedule strength rated at 301. MU is at 140, which is worse than average for this set of teams
So, in this case, the Big East is essentially penalized because their elite teams are holding down their home turf and not losing
The Big Twelve benefits because their elite teams aren't holding down their home turf
I mean I get it. At the end of the day you can nitpick any of the metrics or sets of data, in this case "big" road wins, and use that as an argument to benefit one conference over the next in seeding. If you deem that the B12 is the best conference in America, which it is, and want to stuff the top 4 seed lines with B12 teams you will do just that, and then pick the data point that suits you to make your argument.
Most consider the BE as one of the top 3/4 conferences in America, but it seems like this years committee sees it more as a collection of 4/5 seeds at the top.
I still think that if Marquette wins the Big East and gets the 1 seed they will fall on the 3 line, so that's the current goal for multiple reasons.
If they don't, they will fall on the 4/5 line barring a complete meltdown.
Joe Lunardi moved Gonzaga ahead of Marquette for beating Pepperdine last night.
17-9 Iowa State remained on his 3 line.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on February 19, 2023, 12:15:58 PM
Joe Lunardi moved Gonzaga ahead of Marquette for beating Pepperdine last night.
17-9 Iowa State remained on his 3 line.
Getting rewarded for beating the last place team in the WCC is a bit ridiculous.
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on February 19, 2023, 11:55:39 AM
Butler flies off the page for one thing
Butler away is a Q2 loss for now, so no. It will be a problem if it becomes Q3, but they have plenty of chances for more Q1 wins unlike MU. We need to win @ Creighton to have a good chance to improve our seeding.
We don't have to like it ... but if Marquette had won even one of at Prov, at X, at Purdue, home vs Madison or neutral vs Miss State, we'd probably have been a 3 in the reveal -- and certainly if we had won any of those three road games.
It's not as if all of this was completely out of our team's control. And now our guys get to have a say in things again Tuesday.
Quote from: DoctorV on February 19, 2023, 12:14:57 PM
So, in this case, the Big East is essentially penalized because their elite teams are holding down their home turf and not losing
The Big Twelve benefits because their elite teams aren't holding down their home turf
I mean I get it. At the end of the day you can nitpick any of the metrics or sets of data, in this case "big" road wins, and use that as an argument to benefit one conference over the next in seeding. If you deem that the B12 is the best conference in America, which it is, and want to stuff the top 4 seed lines with B12 teams you will do just that, and then pick the data point that suits you to make your argument.
Most consider the BE as one of the top 3/4 conferences in America, but it seems like this years committee sees it more as a collection of 4/5 seeds at the top.
I still think that if Marquette wins the Big East and gets the 1 seed they will fall on the 3 line, so that's the current goal for multiple reasons.
If they don't, they will fall on the 4/5 line barring a complete meltdown.
Also will depend on what those seeded ahead or close behind us do. But MU needs to win out rest of regular BE season to make a statement for better seeding.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 19, 2023, 12:26:31 PM
Also will depend on what those seeded ahead or close behind us do. But MU needs to win out rest of regular BE season to make a statement for better seeding.
If Marquette wins out it won't matter, that would be a 3 seed.
If Marquette loses at Creighton and still wins the BE outright, doesn't bow out of the Garden early I still think they get a 3 seed.
Those teams on the 3 line will lose games, and at the end of the day the committee will likely have the best BE team on the 3 line, especially if it is Marquette who is their highest rated BE team to this point
Quote from: DoctorV on February 19, 2023, 12:38:34 PM
If Marquette wins out it won't matter, that would be a 3 seed.
If Marquette loses at Creighton and still wins the BE outright, doesn't bow out of the Garden early I still think they get a 3 seed.
Those teams on the 3 line will lose games, and at the end of the day the committee will likely have the best BE team on the 3 line, especially if it is Marquette who is their highest rated BE team to this point
You're assuming they will all lose games, but they also have much better opportunities than MU to improve their resume. Bottom line MU needs to win and do their part.
https://twitter.com/grahamdoeren/status/1627368129079742465?s=61&t=d1qGuZ08XMZZUIv9juv18A
Reveal Shmiveal. As others note, you have to beat great teams sooner or later to win in March. Let's be that team nobody wants to face, whatever the number next to us.
On to more pertinent things, like winning outright the BIG F'n EAST reg season!!
Maybe it would be better if the NCAA just seeded teams purely on the basis of the NET. If they see teams whose NET seems to be out of whack, they can try to see why the formula they use produces that result and tinker with the formula for the next year. If nothing else that would save a lot of manpower in trying to going through resumes and arguing over whose resume is better.
MU's NET is 14, and most of their metrics are in the neighborhood (RAP score of 15.4) so I find it hard to get too worked up about being 14 on the NCAA seed list.
If we're trying to make a case for bias against the Big East, I think Xavier's placement refutes that. They have an NET of 26 and RAP score of 19.2 but were placed up to 16. Their sweep of UConn and 11 total Q 1 and Q2 wins clearly carried more weight than their ugly loss to DePaul.
In the case of UConn, I think they reached the point where the number of losses in conference play makes it hard to place them above several conference teams that have beaten them and have better conference records.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 19, 2023, 11:43:43 AM
They hate us
They're in cahoots with the announcers and ESPN.
Quote from: MU82 on February 19, 2023, 12:25:05 PM
We don't have to like it ... but if Marquette had won even one of at Prov, at X, at Purdue, home vs Madison or neutral vs Miss State, we'd probably have been a 3 in the reveal -- and certainly if we had won any of those three road games.
It's not as if all of this was completely out of our team's control. And now our guys get to have a say in things again Tuesday.
That's exactly right. It is what it is. Win Tuesday and get another quad 1 victory in the Big East tournament and MU will grab a 3 seed. MU should not complain if they don't get it done.
Quote from: mugrad_89 on February 19, 2023, 12:19:58 PM
Getting rewarded for beating the last place team in the WCC is a bit ridiculous.
And barely beating them. Was a one possession game with 2 mins left.
As I always say, Just WIN Baaaby ! ! ! Winning cures Everything ! ! ! Makes Rankings better, Makes Attendance Better, Makes Marketing better ! ! ! 8-)
Quote from: MuMark on February 19, 2023, 12:52:22 PM
https://twitter.com/grahamdoeren/status/1627368129079742465?s=61&t=d1qGuZ08XMZZUIv9juv18A
I was wondering when the cutoff would be. Given this, it's entirely possible that we have already swapped places with Indiana already.
I wonder what seed ND will get this year?
Quote from: MuMark on February 19, 2023, 12:52:22 PM
https://twitter.com/grahamdoeren/status/1627368129079742465?s=61&t=d1qGuZ08XMZZUIv9juv18A
Interesting. A few of the more questionable seedings make a little more sense now.
Quote from: MU82 on February 19, 2023, 03:10:43 PM
Interesting. A few of the more questionable seedings make a little more sense now.
They really should have said up front that they used results through Tuesday nite.
Quote from: DoctorV on February 18, 2023, 11:07:05 PM
Here's the thing with that though-
All 3 of those teams have a COMBINED 2 losses at home for the entire season, by 3 total points.
Yeah, that's the point. The Selection Committee clearly rewarded teams with marquee true road wins. Our best is Seton Hall, hence we're behind teams like KSU, ISU, and Indiana despite having a better traditional resume.
Led by 9 at Purdue, had plenty of opportunities in 50 minutes at Providence, tied at Cintas with a minute to play. Those were the outcomes that cost us.
Joe Lunardi Just said on ESPN the only change he would make with the reveal would have been to put UCONN in.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 19, 2023, 04:31:08 PM
Yeah, that's the point. The Selection Committee clearly rewarded teams with marquee true road wins. Our best is Seton Hall, hence we're behind teams like KSU, ISU, and Indiana despite having a better traditional resume.
Led by 9 at Purdue, had plenty of opportunities in 50 minutes at Providence, tied at Cintas with a minute to play. Those were the outcomes that cost us.
I hear you Brew. I think the narrative that we deserved better in the reveal is countered by what you listed here. Of course, I would think that a W @ Creighton would certainly qualify as a "marquee true road game". It is our last chance.
Quote from: MarquetteMike1977 on February 19, 2023, 06:34:32 PM
Joe Lunardi Just said on ESPN the only change he would make with the reveal would have been to put UCONN in.
i really really hope I am wrong, for obvious reasons, but UConn IMHO is the most likely team to get to the Final Four from the BE.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on February 19, 2023, 07:59:33 PM
i really really hope I am wrong, for obvious reasons, but UConn IMHO is the most likely team to get to the Final Four from the BE.
I understand where you are coming from but don't understand why they have 7 losses in the Big East. I hope Hurley's excuse about being too physical in the Big East and the whistle being more kind in the tournament is actually true. I think that would bode well for MU as well.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on February 19, 2023, 07:59:33 PM
i really really hope I am wrong, for obvious reasons, but UConn IMHO is the most likely team to get to the Final Four from the BE.
Maybe. But UConn also very easily could lose in the first round, especially if they don't get a top-4 seed. They've already lost at home to St. John's, which is likely worse than any 11 or 12 seed they'd play.
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on February 19, 2023, 08:21:46 PM
I understand where you are coming from but don't understand why they have 7 losses in the Big East. I hope Hurley's excuse about being too physical in the Big East and the whistle being more kind in the tournament is actually true. I think that would bode well for MU as well.
Agree, Shooter. When I heard Mike Brey refer ad nauseum to our Big East physicality after our road dismantling of ND, I though to myself, "yikes, we are one of the least physical teams in the BEast." Which is why I think the recent physical battles will prove invaluable going forward. I think the weight donut is coming off the bat for MU's offense entering the NCAAs.
Quote from: ChitownSpaceForRent on February 19, 2023, 11:22:16 AM
This is my worry it feels like the committee has set the precedent that Marquette is one questionable loss from dropping to the 6 line
I actually don't mind the 6 spot if we lose to Creighton. It would certainly be a snub, but for seeding matchups to go deep, I'm ok with it. Plus there's just one more chip to add to the team's shoulder.
Quote from: UWW2MU on February 20, 2023, 09:11:21 AM
I actually don't mind the 6 spot if we lose to Creighton. It would certainly be a snub, but for seeding matchups to go deep, I'm ok with it. Plus there's just one more chip to add to the team's shoulder.
Losing to Creighton on the road shouldn't push us out of the 4 line, let alone down to a 6.
Quote from: UWW2MU on February 20, 2023, 09:11:21 AM
I actually don't mind the 6 spot if we lose to Creighton. It would certainly be a snub, but for seeding matchups to go deep, I'm ok with it. Plus there's just one more chip to add to the team's shoulder.
Thats a huge drop for a road loss @ Creighton....a top of the conference team.
Maybe if we lose by 150 points.
Quote from: We R Final Four on February 20, 2023, 09:47:06 AM
Thats a huge drop for a road loss @ Creighton....a top of the conference team.
Maybe if we lose by 150 points.
Or forfeit. 👀
Records since the selection reveal:
1 Alabama (1-1)
2 Houston (2-0)
3 Purdue (1-1)
4 Kansas (2-0)
5 Texas (2-0)
6 Arizona (2-0)
7 Baylor (0-2)
8 UCLA (2-0)
9 Tennessee (1-2)
10 Virginia (2-0)
11 Iowa State (1-2)
12 Kansas State (2-0)
13 Indiana (1-2)
14 Marquette (2-0)
15 Gonzaga (2-0)
16 Xavier (1-2)
Quote from: CountryRoads on February 21, 2023, 10:43:18 PM
Records since the selection reveal:
1 Alabama (1-1)
2 Houston (2-0)
3 Purdue (1-1)
4 Kansas (2-0)
5 Texas (2-0)
6 Arizona (2-0)
7 Baylor (0-2)
8 UCLA (2-0)
9 Tennessee (1-2)
10 Virginia (2-0)
11 Iowa State (1-2)
12 Kansas State (2-0)
13 Indiana (1-2)
14 Marquette (2-0)
15 Gonzaga (2-0)
16 Xavier (1-2)
I'm not certain that Valentine's Day games were counted. The committee met Monday and Tuesday and "briefly Wednesday morning". Not sure if that means they adjusted for Tuesday night's action or not.
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on February 21, 2023, 11:38:46 PM
I'm not certain that Valentine's Day games were counted. The committee met Monday and Tuesday and "briefly Wednesday morning". Not sure if that means they adjusted for Tuesday night's action or not.
That's a good point. Don't really get the lack of transparency on that front. Seth Davis maybe could have asked when they finalized the selections instead of asking his dumb question about whether or not all Big12 teams should be in.