MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Not A Serious Person on January 20, 2023, 07:29:51 AM
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Just exceeded Purdue for #1 on Adjusted Offense in KenPom’s rankings
https://kenpom.com/
On the CBS Sports post game after the Providence game, Garry Parrish noted the old adage “Defense wins Championship” really does NOT apply in college basketball. It is efficient offenses that win the college hoops game.
At the time he said that MU was a “top 3 Kenpom offense” and everything he has seen passes the eye test on this front.
He said teams that score points, and score points easily, play in the second and third weeks of the tournament. And MU scores about as easily as anyone.
Do you agree with Parrish that offense is the most important statistic and MU now #1 is a big deal?
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Just as all of us predicted would be the case on Nov. 1.
Congrats to Shaka, Nevada Smith, the other assistants, and our talented, hard-working players.
As to whether or not it will turn out to be the "most important statistic" ... not a single person knows, but it's gonna be fun to find out.
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As to whether or not it will turn out to be the "most important statistic" ... not a single person knows, but it's gonna be fun to find out.
Good Lord, I'm going to fill out some ridiculously optomistic march madness brackets that are sure to sink me. Unless...
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The game of basketball has changed a great deal over the past decade. I heard Shaka mention that Steph Curry changed the game, and it took the media and fans a long time to realize the way the game has changed. I believe MU's defense is definitely good enough to play with any team in the country and their offense should be a major concern to anyone they play.
Shaka and his staff seem to be completely on the same page with what they want from this team and the players bought into it. Now, they could hit at ceiling, even lower than what we hope, but until proven otherwise I believe this team can play with any team in the country.
I say it all the time, but I think their defense is far better than their ranking. When they turn the focus to defense when needed it looks awfully good to me. IMO, they have the players for close to lockdown defense but have chosen to put much of the energy on offense.
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Marquette's defense extends pressure because it wants to play fast and create turnovers. Any defense that does that is going to look bad at times when the ball movement is good. But Shaka's bet is that teams aren't going to be able to do that for extended periods. (IMO this is why you see some extended runs by opponents in the first half, but usually not the second.)
You can't play defense like Virginia and offense like Marquette. It just doesn't work that way.
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Marquette has already shown it can play with any team in the country. Losing a tight one in Mackey established that.
Being #1 in offensive efficiency is a fun talking point. And, if MU had any room, it would be a great bullet in the powerpoint for recruits.
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Good points, Goose and Sultan.
The extended defense also contributes to some of our problems on the boards. But every coach and every system has trade-offs. Our defensive system creates turnovers that lead to breakouts and easy buckets, but it also sometimes leads to dunks or offensive putbacks by our opponents. Shaka has decided he can live with that tradeoff, and I don't blame him.
We have an entertaining and successful system, both offensive and defensive. Even accounting for the occasional frustrating moments, I'm having a blast watching this team.
And yes, Goose, I don't see a single team in America we can't beat.
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The game of basketball has changed a great deal over the past decade. I heard Shaka mention that Steph Curry changed the game, and it took the media and fans a long time to realize the way the game has changed. I believe MU's defense is definitely good enough to play with any team in the country and their offense should be a major concern to anyone they play.
A couple months ago in the NBA THREAD, I said the same thing about Curry.
Changing the game was one of the reasons for ranking him above Durant. Also the same reason that I rank Jabbar over MJ and LeBron as the GOAT.
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Offense travels?
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Marquette's defense extends pressure because it wants to play fast and create turnovers. Any defense that does that is going to look bad at times when the ball movement is good. But Shaka's bet is that teams aren't going to be able to do that for extended periods. (IMO this is why you see some extended runs by opponents in the first half, but usually not the second.)
You can't play defense like Virginia and offense like Marquette. It just doesn't work that way.
This. Sure, you will see some teams that are both Top 10 in defense and offense but those teams are normally filled with lottery picks. With the talent level we have (it is very good, but we don't have lottery picks left and right) you are not going to have a #1 offense and a Top #20 defense.
I think if we could have a Top #50 defense with this offense, we will be hard to beat.
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Marquette's defense extends pressure because it wants to play fast and create turnovers. Any defense that does that is going to look bad at times when the ball movement is good. But Shaka's bet is that teams aren't going to be able to do that for extended periods. (IMO this is why you see some extended runs by opponents in the first half, but usually not the second.)
You can't play defense like Virginia and offense like Marquette. It just doesn't work that way.
Interesting take. Hadn't thought of that.
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Marquette's defense extends pressure because it wants to play fast and create turnovers. Any defense that does that is going to look bad at times when the ball movement is good. But Shaka's bet is that teams aren't going to be able to do that for extended periods. (IMO this is why you see some extended runs by opponents in the first half, but usually not the second.)
You can't play defense like Virginia and offense like Marquette. It just doesn't work that way.
If you could, you’d be an NBA team
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I think if we could have a Top #50 defense with this offense, we will be hard to beat.
True ... but aren't we already hard to beat?
We've already played three teams ranked in the top 6 when at tip-off. Only one beat us, and we certainly weren't easy to beat in that game.
There are teams we match up worse with than others; we also create matchup problems for opponents.
But yes, I agree with what I think is your point: If we can continue to improve on defense (which includes ending defensive possessions by securing rebounds), we will be even harder to beat.
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Offense travels?
Interesting quote from Shaka recently mentioned that he began to realize the psychological benefit on the defensive end, that being successful on offense provides. Said guys feel good about themselves when scoring the ball and it builds momentum defensively.
Also interesting to note: To date we've played the 14th most difficult schedule as it relates to offensive efficiency, so our defensive efficiency ranking is affected some due to having played a schedule that has been against strong offensive teams YTD.
Only Iowa State, Kansas, and Alabama above us in Ken Pom have played a more difficult schedule as it relates to facing top offenses at 6, 11, and 12 respectively.
I think Alabama is the best team in the country. Iowa State's defense can keep them in any game. Still surprised my betting site has MU at 60-1 to win the National Championship. Very good value bet, actually.
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Interesting quote from Shaka recently mentioned that he began to realize the psychological benefit on the defensive end, that being successful on offense provides. Said guys feel good about themselves when scoring the ball and it builds momentum defensively.
Also interesting to note: To date we've played the 14th most difficult schedule as it relates to offensive efficiency, so our defensive efficiency ranking is affected some due to having played a schedule that has been against strong offensive teams YTD.
Only Iowa State, Kansas, and Alabama above us in Ken Pom have played a more difficult schedule as it relates to facing top offenses at 6, 11, and 12 respectively.
I think Alabama is the best team in the country. Iowa State's defense can keep them in any game. Still surprised my betting site has MU at 60-1 to win the National Championship. Very good value bet, actually.
That is an interesting insight by Shaka …. You can see it in games, like when Stevie scores, he is so pumped in defense immediately after . Other guys too. He is on to something.
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Interesting quote from Shaka recently mentioned that he began to realize the psychological benefit on the defensive end, that being successful on offense provides. Said guys feel good about themselves when scoring the ball and it builds momentum defensively.
That reminds me of Shaka's comment during the All-Access game against DePaul last year: "The math is simple. If they don't score, they won't defend."
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We can play with any team in any single game. But winning 6 straight games against some of the better teams in the country (outside of maybe your first game if you're a high enough seed) is tough to do when your defense is where MU's is. Actually it's been impossible. Since KenPom came around in 2002, no team has ever won a national championship with an adjusted defensive ranking outside of the top 22 (and no team has won a national title with an adjust offensive ranking outside the top 40, which Marquette should stay in). The average adjusted defensive ranking of national champions has been 9.55. The game has certainly changed in the past decade alone, but one thing that has remained true is you still need to defend to win a title. Marquette has to be MUCH better defensively if they want to win 6 straight games in March/April.
Even winning 4 straight to make a Final Four has been nearly impossible for teams that look like Marquette this season. There have been 155 teams that have been in the top 10 of KenPom on one end of the court and outside of the top 50 of KenPom on the other end of the court. Only 4 of those teams have made a Final Four.
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We can play with any team in any single game. But winning 6 straight games against some of the better teams in the country (outside of maybe your first game if you're a high enough seed) is tough to do when your defense is where MU's is. Actually it's been impossible. Since KenPom came around in 2002, no team has ever won a national championship with an adjusted defensive ranking outside of the top 22 (and no team has won a national title with an adjust offensive ranking outside the top 40, which Marquette should stay in). The average adjusted defensive ranking of national champions has been 9.55. The game has certainly changed in the past decade alone, but one thing that has remained true is you still need to defend to win a title. Marquette has to be MUCH better defensively if they want to win 6 straight games in March/April.
Even winning 4 straight to make a Final Four has been nearly impossible for teams that look like Marquette this season. There have been 155 teams that have been in the top 10 of KenPom on one end of the court and outside of the top 50 of KenPom on the other end of the court. Only 4 of those teams have made a Final Four.
Agree you need defense and offense balance. I would like to see each National Champion's rankings right before the tourney tough. Going on an amazing six game run against the best teams the country will do wonders to your KenPom rankings. I wonder if the worst defense ranking prior to the tourney could be something more like #30 or so.
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I heard a stat something along the lines of no National Champion has had a defense worse than 40-50 on KenPom. Not sure of the validity, but it makes sense.
Marquettes defense is currently in the 90s. Needs improvement, but I'm not concerned about it just yet.
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I heard a stat something along the lines of no National Champion has had a defense worse than 40-50 on KenPom. Not sure of the validity, but it makes sense.
Marquettes defense is currently in the 90s. Needs improvement, but I'm not concerned about it just yet.
National Champions in the Kenpom era…
Format: (offense rank, defense rank):
2022: Kansas (6, 17)
2021: Baylor (2, 22)
2019: Virginia (2, 5)
2018: Villanova (1, 11)
2017: North Carolina (9, 11)
2016: Villanova (3, 5)
2015: Duke (3, 11)
2014: Connecticut (39, 10)
2013: Louisville (7, 1)
2012: Kentucky (2, 7)
2011: Connecticut (19, 15)
2010: Duke (1, 5)
2009: North Carolina (1, 18)
2008: Kansas (2, 1)
2007: Florida (1, 13)
2006: Florida (3, 7)
2005: North Carolina (2, 5)
2004: Connecticut (9, 6)
2003: Syracuse (17, 14)
2002: Maryland (4, 7)
Considering the above, looks like there’s a good chance the champion comes from this group this year:
Houston (6, 2)
UCLA (12, 5)
Alabama (13, 7)
Purdue (3, 18)
Connecticut (16, 12)
Kansas (17, 14)
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We can play with any team in any single game. But winning 6 straight games against some of the better teams in the country (outside of maybe your first game if you're a high enough seed) is tough to do when your defense is where MU's is. Actually it's been impossible. Since KenPom came around in 2002, no team has ever won a national championship with an adjusted defensive ranking outside of the top 22 (and no team has won a national title with an adjust offensive ranking outside the top 40, which Marquette should stay in). The average adjusted defensive ranking of national champions has been 9.55. The game has certainly changed in the past decade alone, but one thing that has remained true is you still need to defend to win a title. Marquette has to be MUCH better defensively if they want to win 6 straight games in March/April.
Even winning 4 straight to make a Final Four has been nearly impossible for teams that look like Marquette this season. There have been 155 teams that have been in the top 10 of KenPom on one end of the court and outside of the top 50 of KenPom on the other end of the court. Only 4 of those teams have made a Final Four.
A nit to pick with this, you are looking at final numbers, not teams numbers entering the NCAAT. There have been teams that started outside the top 22 in defensive rating that because if how they played in the tournament finished in the top 22.
That being said, I agree that MUs defense is not quality enough to cut down the nets this season. It is good enough to make some noise in March
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Still not getting enough respect.
Our defense seems to me like a bend don’t break type of philosophy. We hang around in the first half and hope to wear down in the opponent in the second half where our offense can pull away a bit.
I’m not sure that’s where Shaka wants to be long term. I’m also not too discouraged that we aren’t at National Champion level yet.
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A nit to pick with this, you are looking at final numbers, not teams numbers entering the NCAAT. There have been teams that started outside the top 22 in defensive rating that because if how they played in the tournament finished in the top 22.
That being said, I agree that MUs defense is not quality enough to cut down the nets this season. It is good enough to make some noise in March
I'm sure there were one or two outliers that were outside of the top 25 going into the Tournament. But the final average (yes, after a great 6 game run for these teams) was 9.55. While the rankings probably moved some, I don't think it was moving a ton in a 6 game sample size out of a 35-40 game season.
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Still not getting enough respect.
Our defense seems to me like a bend don’t break type of philosophy. We hang around in the first half and hope to wear down in the opponent in the second half where our offense can pull away a bit.
I’m not sure that’s where Shaka wants to be long term. I’m also not too discouraged that we aren’t at National Champion level yet.
The problem with MU's defense last year was the turnovers on offense which led to breakouts on the other end.
This year MU has to extend the pressure for steals and to lengthen the time of possession. Deflections. That has worked well. What hasn't is the second chance possessions.
According to Pomeroy, the most controllable things for a good defense are:
The defense’s tools are two-point defense and influencing shot selection. While a frightening number of things are in the offense’s control – leading to the offense having 64% control over its points per possession number – the defense has significant influence over where shots are taken from and how effective the offense is near the rim.
In other words, great defenses are built from the baseline out.
https://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-defense-the-summary/
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National Champions in the Kenpom era…
Format: (offense rank, defense rank):
2022: Kansas (6, 17)
2021: Baylor (2, 22)
2019: Virginia (2, 5)
2018: Villanova (1, 11)
2017: North Carolina (9, 11)
2016: Villanova (3, 5)
2015: Duke (3, 11)
2014: Connecticut (39, 10)
2013: Louisville (7, 1)
2012: Kentucky (2, 7)
2011: Connecticut (19, 15)
2010: Duke (1, 5)
2009: North Carolina (1, 18)
2008: Kansas (2, 1)
2007: Florida (1, 13)
2006: Florida (3, 7)
2005: North Carolina (2, 5)
2004: Connecticut (9, 6)
2003: Syracuse (17, 14)
2002: Maryland (4, 7)
Considering the above, looks like there’s a good chance the champion comes from this group this year:
Houston (6, 2)
UCLA (12, 5)
Alabama (13, 7)
Purdue (3, 18)
Connecticut (16, 12)
Kansas (17, 14)
11 of those teams have top 4 offenses.
Only 2 had top 4 defenses.
So you're telling me there's a chance??
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Just wild. Hang a banner
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Would anyone be willing to do a similar analysis for final 4 teams? Wondering if some poorer defensive teams have been able to win 4 games in the NCAAT?
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Wow. Congrats!!!
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11 of those teams have top 4 offenses.
Only 2 had top 4 defenses.
So you're telling me there's a chance??
If you look closer, all the national champs have had a top-20 defense and offense.
The exceptions are 2014 UConn and the last two national champs that were just outside the top-20 on defense.
You can make a final four with one elite side. Winning it all is another thing. Still, if you asked me what was more likely, a team with an elite offense and ok defense winning it all versus the other, give me the team with an elite offense
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Would anyone be willing to do a similar analysis for final 4 teams? Wondering if some poorer defensive teams have been able to win 4 games in the NCAAT?
These were the only two I found over 60 which is interesting:
2011: VCU (78)
2003: Marquette (109)
(Texas was 58 in 2003 and there were maybe 5 teams in the 40s)
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Interesting. I was wondering what MU’s defensive rating was in 2003.
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Our offense in 2003 was #2 and defense was #119.
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Our offense in 2003 was #2 and defense was #119.
How much of that 119 was the Kansas game? ;D
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Hire Mike Deane to coach defense!
Can you picture Deane pulling Kolek, Oso,or Omax 90 seconds in for giving up a lay up?
Can you picture Shaka and Nevada's expressions? Might be worth it strictly for entertainment. Shaka trying to build them up, Deane mf'ing them after every basket.
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How much of that 119 was the Kansas game? ;D
At least 100.
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Maybe Final 4 is this team’s ceiling? Sign me up!
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Offense travels?
But the refs never call it
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National Champions in the Kenpom era…
Format: (offense rank, defense rank):
2022: Kansas (6, 17)
2021: Baylor (2, 22)
2019: Virginia (2, 5)
2018: Villanova (1, 11)
2017: North Carolina (9, 11)
2016: Villanova (3, 5)
2015: Duke (3, 11)
2014: Connecticut (39, 10)
2013: Louisville (7, 1)
2012: Kentucky (2, 7)
2011: Connecticut (19, 15)
2010: Duke (1, 5)
2009: North Carolina (1, 18)
2008: Kansas (2, 1)
2007: Florida (1, 13)
2006: Florida (3, 7)
2005: North Carolina (2, 5)
2004: Connecticut (9, 6)
2003: Syracuse (17, 14)
2002: Maryland (4, 7)
Considering the above, looks like there’s a good chance the champion comes from this group this year:
Houston (6, 2)
UCLA (12, 5)
Alabama (13, 7)
Purdue (3, 18)
Connecticut (16, 12)
Kansas (17, 14)
Where is Marquette ranked in Defense?
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How much of that 119 was the Kansas game? ;D
I thought Marquette just forfeited the Kansas game.
You are saying the team actually played?
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Where is Marquette ranked in Defense?
91 last I checked
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National Champions in the Kenpom era…
Format: (offense rank, defense rank):
2022: Kansas (6, 17)
2021: Baylor (2, 22)
2019: Virginia (2, 5)
2018: Villanova (1, 11)
2017: North Carolina (9, 11)
2016: Villanova (3, 5)
2015: Duke (3, 11)
2014: Connecticut (39, 10)
2013: Louisville (7, 1)
2012: Kentucky (2, 7)
2011: Connecticut (19, 15)
2010: Duke (1, 5)
2009: North Carolina (1, 18)
2008: Kansas (2, 1)
2007: Florida (1, 13)
2006: Florida (3, 7)
2005: North Carolina (2, 5)
2004: Connecticut (9, 6)
2003: Syracuse (17, 14)
2002: Maryland (4, 7)
Considering the above, looks like there’s a good chance the champion comes from this group this year:
Houston (6, 2)
UCLA (12, 5)
Alabama (13, 7)
Purdue (3, 18)
Connecticut (16, 12)
Kansas (17, 14)
Good thing our defense isn't as good as our offense...we'd never win a championship.
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And yet, they have ANOTHER game on CBS Sports Network
Whichever exec who made that decision this preseason should not have a job come next year.
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How much of that 119 was the Kansas game? ;D
Ouch!
I’ve tried to block that game from my memory.
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Maybe Final 4 is this team’s ceiling? Sign me up!
Co-sign. I will begrudgingly accept this outcome.
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These were the only two I found over 60 which is interesting:
2011: VCU (78)
2003: Marquette (109)
(Texas was 58 in 2003 and there were maybe 5 teams in the 40s)
This is amazing.
Talk about just the most perfect bar room stat if this seasons Marquette were to shock us all.
One can only dream.
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These were the only two I found over 60 which is interesting:
2011: VCU (78)
2003: Marquette (109)
(Texas was 58 in 2003 and there were maybe 5 teams in the 40s)
Does no one else have the theme song from the Twilight Zone blaring in their head right now!?!?
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Do you agree with Parrish that offense is the most important statistic and MU now #1 is a big deal?
Offense is more important than defense, but if you want to win it all you do need at least a competent defense. Typically, teams that enter the tournament top-25 in both have a real shot, and the lowest defensive rank on kenpom to enter the tournament and cut down nets was UNC at #39.
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Offense is more important than defense, but if you want to win it all you do need at least a competent defense. Typically, teams that enter the tournament top-25 in both have a real shot, and the lowest defensive rank on kenpom to enter the tournament and cut down nets was UNC at #39.
Thanks for that Brew. People keep on quoting champion's rank was at the end of year when they went on an incredible 6 game run. It is more interesting to know what their rank was BEFORE the tourney.
Can I ask what was the lowest offensive rank for a champion prior to the tourney?
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Offense is more important than defense, but if you want to win it all you do need at least a competent defense. Typically, teams that enter the tournament top-25 in both have a real shot, and the lowest defensive rank on kenpom to enter the tournament and cut down nets was UNC at #39.
There is a mild solution to the defense at the end of the year, its called praying that Marquette can get away with playing Joplin 10 mpg come postseason time. Until then pray he learns how to play defense a tiny bit.
In conference play and with Oso on the court, Joplin's ON/ OFF is the most horrific individual defensive stats.
In conference play and with Oso ON the court and with Joplin ON the court, in 181 defensive possessions, Marquette has an adj. defensive rating of 110.7, allowing a 47.3 off. rebounding rate, a 43.6 FTR, and allowing opponents to shoot 41.0% from three while taking 39.1% of attempts from three.
In conference play and with Oso ON the court and with Joplin OFF the court, in 294 defensive possessions, Marquette has an adj. defensive rating of 87.1, allowing 30.8% an off. rebounding rate, a 21.5 FTR, and allowing opponents to shoot 22.2% from three while taking 32.3% of attempts from three.
Joplin can't play any defense, and we are one of the best offenses in the country with or without him.
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There is a mild solution to the defense at the end of the year, its called praying that Marquette can get away with playing Joplin 10 mpg come postseason time. Until then pray he learns how to play defense a tiny bit.
In conference play and with Oso on the court, Joplin's ON/ OFF is the most horrific individual defensive stats.
In conference play and with Oso ON the court and with Joplin ON the court, in 181 defensive possessions, Marquette has an adj. defensive rating of 110.7, allowing a 47.3 off. rebounding rate, a 43.6 FTR, and allowing opponents to shoot 41.0% from three while taking 39.1% of attempts from three.
In conference play and with Oso ON the court and with Joplin OFF the court, in 294 defensive possessions, Marquette has an adj. defensive rating of 87.1, allowing 30.8% an off. rebounding rate, a 21.5 FTR, and allowing opponents to shoot 22.2% from three while taking 32.3% of attempts from three.
Joplin can't play any defense, and we are one of the best offenses in the country with or without him.
This is why I have been hoping for more Ross in end game situations. I know he’s a freshman, but it seems the defensive upside is greater than any offensive downside.
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I’m not sure how much of a downgrade Ross is on offense either. He’s not as good of a shooter, but I think he makes less mistakes and has shown the ability to hit shots and turn a steal into 2 points.
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I’m not sure how much of a downgrade Ross is on offense either. He’s not as good of a shooter, but I think he makes less mistakes and has shown the ability to hit shots and turn a steal into 2 points.
I think he's quicker and much better at keeping the ball moving as well
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Marquette up to number 8 in KenPom after the win. Defense gets a bump to 72
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I think our defense will see more jumps over the next few weeks. Was a good defensive effort today.
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I’m not sure how much of a downgrade Ross is on offense either. He’s not as good of a shooter, but I think he makes less mistakes and has shown the ability to hit shots and turn a steal into 2 points.
Completely diff profile. %shots
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I think our defense will see more jumps over the next few weeks. Was a good defensive effort today.
I agree with this
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I’m not sure how much of a downgrade Ross is on offense either. He’s not as good of a shooter, but I think he makes less mistakes and has shown the ability to hit shots and turn a steal into 2 points.
Offensive rating in two games this week was 127 & 146. No turnovers. Has played better in conference than out of. Kid will be an all-league player before it’s all said and done
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I’m not sure how much of a downgrade Ross is on offense either. He’s not as good of a shooter, but I think he makes less mistakes and has shown the ability to hit shots and turn a steal into 2 points.
Chase should be getting the 5th most minutes on the team at this point. His steal % is 22nd in the country at 4.8. Minimizing offensive possessions for the opposition exposes us to fewer possessions to have to secure a defensive rebound. Our defense is really good rotationally, schematically - but when you can't clear the board and the opponent gets easy put backs it kills all the great work done preceding the shot attempt.
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Chase should be getting the 5th most minutes on the team at this point. His steal % is 22nd in the country at 4.8. Minimizing offensive possessions for the opposition exposes us to fewer possessions to have to secure a defensive rebound. Our defense is really good rotationally, schematically - but when you can't clear the board and the opponent gets easy put backs it kills all the great work done preceding the shot attempt.
You saw the beginning of that today. He was 4th because of Omax foul trouble.
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I’m not sure how much of a downgrade Ross is on offense either. He’s not as good of a shooter, but I think he makes less mistakes and has shown the ability to hit shots and turn a steal into 2 points.
Cheebs,
I fully expect Ross to take an ENORMOUS jump (no pun intended) very, very, soon. Once he gets extended mins as a Soph? Look out. The kid has a complete game imo.
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Chase should get the exact number of minutes Shaka believes he earns. Same with Gold and Sean.
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Ross needs to play more
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Nm
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Cheebs,
I fully expect Ross to take an ENORMOUS jump (no pun intended) very, very, soon. Once he gets extended mins as a Soph? Look out. The kid has a complete game imo.
Highest NBA ceiling on this team. Still has to put it together, but I love his upside.
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Ross needs to play more
I'm gonna go with the crazy-hot take that the coach who sees them every day and who so far has done an incredible job developing them knows more than I do about them. But you're obviously free to believe you know more than Shaka does.
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Highest NBA ceiling on this team. Still has to put it together, but I love his upside.
I still think O-Max is really the only one on this squad that could have a multi-year NBA career. Ross’s athleticism is next level, but I don’t think he’s tall enough to play the 2 in today’s NBA. But maybe he develops elite shot making ti go along with his athleticism.
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Chase should get the exact number of minutes Shaka believes he earns. Same with Gold and Sean.
I'm gonna go with the crazy-hot take that the coach who sees them every day and who so far has done an incredible job developing them knows more than I do about them. But you're obviously free to believe you know more than Shaka does.
Maybe just let the discussion board be a discussion board???
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Omax is going to make money playing at the next level. Athletic, very good defender, good ball handler (in open court), can use both hands very well, nice stroke and a good guy. I hope that he is advised another year at MU is his best path to long NBA career, but afraid that might not happen.
For the naysayers, it has been mentioned more than once the number of NBA scouts at the games the past couple of weeks and Omax's name has been mentioned every time. I hardly doubt if the scouts are solely there to see him a standout game, but rather, how does his skills translate to the next level. I find it funny when someone feels a subpar game, like yesterday, would change his chances of playing in the NBA. I said it before, but when I saw him grab a D rebound against UCLA last year and go to coast to coast, he looked different to me, a good different.
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I think scouts want to see when a player has a bad game, what is his body language like. How does he lift up his teammates, etc.
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In O-Max it's easy to understand why fans see a guy who lacks consistency and who sometimes gets out of control with the basketball. But scouts look at him and say, "Outstanding athlete, NBA body, hard worker, can defend multiple positions, shooting form we can work with."
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Fluff
Did you have mention body language? If so, I think Omax would pass that test, even for the non-believers.
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Fluff
Did you have mention body language? If so, I think Omax would pass that test, even for the non-believers.
Oh no doubt. My larger point is that they aren't just looking at how they played in a particular game. But they look at how they carry themselves.
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Fluff
We agree and that was my point. I have seen posters dismissing Omax as an NBA player when he is having a down game, and I have felt they are missing the big picture. His playing at the next level has been dismissed a lot on scoop this season, only to be followed a rebuttal after a good performance.
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Fluff
We agree and that was my point. I have seen posters dismissing Omax as an NBA player when he is having a down game, and I have felt they are missing the big picture. His playing at the next level has been dismissed a lot on scoop this season, only to be followed a rebuttal after a good performance.
They don’t know ball
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Oh no doubt. My larger point is that they aren't just looking at how they played in a particular game. But they look at how they carry themselves.
Slap of Fives?
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I said 6 months ago that I thought OMax had better NBA potential than Justin.
Now, clearly OMax needs to improve and clean up some things. Balance, finishing through contact, rebounding. I would love to see him do it next season at MU.
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Kenpom has MU #8 today
Going back to 1997, the highest SEASON END Kenpom ranking was 2002 at 11th.
(2003 was 15th)
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Kenpom has MU #8 today
Going back to 1997, the highest SEASON END Kenpom ranking was 2002 at 11th.
(2003 was 15th)
Marquette is 8th? Since when?
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Marquette is 8th? Since when?
Today
https://kenpom.com/
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Today
https://kenpom.com/
Huh.
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Fluff
We agree and that was my point. I have seen posters dismissing Omax as an NBA player when he is having a down game, and I have felt they are missing the big picture. His playing at the next level has been dismissed a lot on scoop this season, only to be followed a rebuttal after a good performance.
I’d love for OMax to make it to, and stick, in the NBA.
At times, he’s been way better this season that I had thought he would be.
At other times, he’s been who I thought he would be.
He’s very inconsistent, and for the most part he’s played poorly in the games MU has lost, which have been against some of the best teams they have played.
He’s also had some great games against good BE opponents like UConn.
At this point it’s much more important to me that he just rebounds and helps Oso hold the fort down low, and defends at an elite level that we’ve seen he can.
The rebounding is the key though, and that’s much more important to me for him this season than what the NBA scouts think.
I wish him the best in his hopefully very prosperous basketball future, but I wish his team the best this season.
So let’s hit the glass OMax!
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The rebounding is the key though, and that’s much more important to me for him this season than what the NBA scouts think.
And certainly what's important to you is foremost on O-Max's mind.
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Love Omax’s NBA potential, but it feels like he needs another year in college to be a realistic draft candidate. It’s hard to imagine his stock being higher than Justin Lewis last year, barring a wild run down the stretch this season.
He still looks like a raw talent out there, which I mean as compliment because he’s already a very good college basketbal player. I think scouts are going to look for him to reach another level of control and precision in the way he moves on the court before he’s a real draft prospect.
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And certainly what's important to you is foremost on O-Max's mind.
I don’t think he cares about me, but I definitely care about him.
I’d even fix his teeth for free.
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Love Omax’s NBA potential, but it feels like he needs another year in college to be a realistic draft candidate. It’s hard to imagine his stock being higher than Justin Lewis last year, barring a wild run down the stretch this season.
He still looks like a raw talent out there, which I mean as compliment because he’s already a very good college basketbal player. I think scouts are going to look for him to reach another level of control and precision in the way he moves on the court before he’s a real draft prospect.
NBA drafts more on potential than polish
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Love Omax’s NBA potential, but it feels like he needs another year in college to be a realistic draft candidate. It’s hard to imagine his stock being higher than Justin Lewis last year, barring a wild run down the stretch this season.
He still looks like a raw talent out there, which I mean as compliment because he’s already a very good college basketbal player. I think scouts are going to look for him to reach another level of control and precision in the way he moves on the court before he’s a real draft prospect.
Yea... no.... Omax is going pro.
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Yea... no.... Omax is going pro.
You seem very confident of that.
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NBA drafts more on potential than polish
To a great extent, yes, but they still need to see an ability to translate size and athleticism to basketball skill. I’m not sure Omax has done enough there to crack the top 60 after this season. But I also think the first round isn’t outside the realm of possibility if he comes back and takes another big step forward.
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Yea... no.... Omax is going pro.
Hoping the best for Omax in his career, but I’d happily take even odds against him being drafted or seeing minutes in the NBA next season.
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Yea... no.... Omax is going pro.
I agree. When? After this season or next?
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After the Butler game, Marquette lost its #1 Kenpom offense ranking. It’s now #4.
But it’s Kenpom defense of rankings moved up to #50. Four games ago was #90.
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After the Butler game, Marquette lost its #1 Kenpom offense ranking. It’s now #4.
But it’s Kenpom defense of rankings moved up to #50. Four games ago was #90.
February swoon
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All 3 teams ranked above us are tied. Our ranking 120.6. All 3 of them 120.7. We’re still right there
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All 3 teams ranked above us are tied. Our ranking 120.6. All 3 of them 120.7. We’re still right there
Yep, but we were over a full point ahead of #2 before the game today. Falling that much in one game this late in the season is rare.
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So Purdue moves up to number 1 in offense in KenPom. They lost today.
We fell to number 4. We won today.
I’ll take a win over some stat.
We also are now 48 on defense. Not long ago, we were over 90. So there’s that.
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So Purdue moves up to number 1 in offense in KenPom. They lost today.
We fell to number 4. We won today.
I’ll take a win over some stat.
We also are now 48 on defense. Not long ago, we were over 90. So there’s that.
Imagine "struggling" against a down Butler team.
Winning.
And your D rating 'doubles.'
Wild
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I believe the stat for Offense and Defense is points per 100 possessions.
So MU scores 120.5 points per 100 possessions
MU allows 97.8 points per 100 possessions
The spread between the two, 22.7 points, is the 8th best in the nation, hence the 8th Kenpom ranking.
MU lost the #1 offense rating because MU scored 60 points on 66 possessions for an offensive rating of 90.9 (60/66). This was below MU's 122-ish rating before the game, so they dropped. Also, this is the second game where MU scored less than 70 points. The Mississippi State loss in November, MU scored 58, was the only game with a lower score.
MU allowed 52 points on 66 possessions for a defensive rate of 78.8 (52/66), much better than the 99-ish MU was before the game. So their defensive rating improved.
Today was a low-scoring game, which hurts the offensive rating and helps the defensive ratings, Winning or losing does not figure into the offensive and defensive ratings.
Now drop 85 to 90 against Uconn, and they can retake #1 in the offense category.
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I believe the stat for Offense and Defense is points per 100 possessions.
So MU scores 120.5 points per 100 possessions
MU allows 97.8 points per 100 possessions
The spread between the two, 22.7 points, is the 8th best in the nation, hence the 8th Kenpom ranking.
MU lost the #1 offense rating because MU scored 60 points on 66 possessions for an offensive rating of 90.9 (60/66). This was below MU's 122-ish rating before the game, so they dropped. Also, this is the second game where MU scored less than 70 points. The Mississippi State loss in November, MU scored 58, was the only game with a lower score.
MU allowed 52 points on 66 possessions for a defensive rate of 78.8 (52/66), much better than the 99-ish MU was before the game. So their defensive rating improved.
Today was a low-scoring game, which hurts the offensive rating and helps the defensive ratings, Winning or losing does not figure into the offensive and defensive ratings.
Now drop 85 to 90 against Uconn, and they can retake #1 in the offense category.
It’s more than that
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It’s more than that
Please explain
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I agree. When? After this season or next?
This season never drafted, if Lewis was not drafted how does Omax get drafted?
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Please explain
https://www.rockmnation.com/platform/amp/2021/1/4/22211605/advanced-analytics-understanding-efficiency-margin-adjusted
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It will be a big mistake if anyone goes Pro at the end of the season. Take the extra year and continue to learn. How many MU players have gone early in recent years and been successful? The track record has not been good. Scouts don't care. They can take a chance since they have a pool of alternative players in line for just a few positions. individual players only have one shot. They should put themselves in the best position possible before pulling the trigger.
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https://www.rockmnation.com/platform/amp/2021/1/4/22211605/advanced-analytics-understanding-efficiency-margin-adjusted
You are correct, sir.
What I wrote is accurate.
I believe the stat for Offense and Defense is points per 100 possessions.
So MU scores 120.5 points per 100 possessions
MU allows 97.8 points per 100 possessions
The spread between the two, 22.7 points, is the 8th best in the nation, hence the 8th Kenpom ranking.
MU lost the #1 offense rating because MU scored 60 points on 66 possessions for an offensive rating of 90.9 (60/66). This was below MU's 122-ish rating before the game, so they dropped. Also, this is the second game where MU scored less than 70 points. The Mississippi State loss in November, MU scored 58, was the only game with a lower score.
MU allowed 52 points on 66 possessions for a defensive rate of 78.8 (52/66), much better than the 99-ish MU was before the game. So their defensive rating improved.
Today was a low-scoring game, which hurts the offensive rating and helps the defensive ratings, Winning or losing does not figure into the offensive and defensive ratings.
Now drop 85 to 90 against Uconn, and they can retake #1 in the offense category.
What I left out is the definition of possession.
Possessions = Field Goal Attempts - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (0.44 x Free throw attempts)
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Some more KenPom stats that are very encouraging for MU
Offense
MU's offense averaged 15.6 seconds a possession, the 14th fast in the country.
They are getting the ball up the court and scoring quickly. Their 2pt field goal percentage is 60.4%, the best in the country.
Sum these up, and they are lethal in scoring 2-point point baskets. Arguably no one is better, not even Purdue with Edey.
On the downside, their FT% is 71%, ranked 201. Consequently, MU scores only 14.5 points from the FT line, ranking them 337 of 363 D1 teams.
This is not good! It has to get better ... period.
3PT% is 35.4%, ranked 102. Acceptable ... barely.
Defensive
On the defensive, the average opponent's possession is 18.7 seconds, ranked 358 of 363 teams. Outstanding! They make them work to put up a shot.
They steal the ball on 13.3% of possessions, ranked 12th. Again great!
On the downside ... rebounding. They allow 30.8 rebounds per game, ranked 272. This has to get better, but can it? MU is what it is, which also means it is not a good rebounding team.
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Please explain
What you calculated is Marquettes unadjusted offensive efficiency. Kenpom uses adjusted offensive efficiency, meaning it adjusts for the quality of defense your offense is facing. You have to use adjusted because otherwise the numbers you calculated would be equal whether you were playing Tennessee (#1 defense) or Houston Christian (#363 defense)
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You are correct, sir.
What I wrote is accurate.
What I left out is the definition of possession.
Possessions = Field Goal Attempts - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (0.44 x Free throw attempts)
What you wrote wasn't accurate and that's not what you left out
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That's not what you left out
Either way, the offense is quite good. Top-20 is awesome! Top-5 is awesomer!
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It’s more than that
Like the part where Kenpom rates this years team based on last years results.
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Like the part where Kenpom rates this years team based on last years results.
You’ve established you don’t understand advanced metrics even though the current head coach and staff uses them regularly.
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Some more KenPom stats that are very encouraging for MU
Offense
MU's offense averaged 15.6 seconds a possession, the 14th fast in the country.
They are getting the ball up the court and scoring quickly. Their 2pt field goal percentage is 60.4%, the best in the country.
Sum these up, and they are lethal in scoring 2-point point baskets. Arguably no one is better, not even Purdue with Edey.
On the downside, their FT% is 71%, ranked 201. Consequently, MU scores only 14.5 points from the FT line, ranking them 337 of 363 D1 teams.
This is not good! It has to get better ... period.
3PT% is 35.4%, ranked 102. Acceptable ... barely.
Defensive
On the defensive, the average opponent's possession is 18.7 seconds, ranked 358 of 363 teams. Outstanding! They make them work to put up a shot.
They steal the ball on 13.3% of possessions, ranked 12th. Again great!
On the downside ... rebounding. They allow 30.8 rebounds per game, ranked 272. This has to get better, but can it? MU is what it is, which also means it is not a good rebounding team.
These stats more describe style than why they are good. It doesn't matter if opponents shoot early in the shot clock or late, it just matters if they make it and if you secure the rebound if they miss. The stats can be misleading too. For example, one of the reasons are opponents are so slow on offense is because of how many offensive Rebounds we give up. We give up more 30+ second possessions than most
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What you calculated is Marquettes unadjusted offensive efficiency. Kenpom uses adjusted offensive efficiency, meaning it adjusts for the quality of defense your offense is facing. You have to use adjusted because otherwise the numbers you calculated would be equal whether you were playing Tennessee (#1 defense) or Houston Christian (#363 defense)
Correct. I left that adjustment out as I tried not to overcomplicate the explanation. Maybe I should have included it.
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These stats more describe style than why they are good. It doesn't matter if opponents shoot early in the shot clock or late, it just matters if they make it and if you secure the rebound if they miss. The stats can be misleading too. For example, one of the reasons are opponents are so slow on offense is because of how many offensive Rebounds we give up. We give up more 30+ second possessions than most
How do offensive rebounds slow the team's scoring time? The clock resets to 20 seconds on an offensive rebound, not 30 seconds.
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How do offensive rebounds slow the team's scoring time? The clock resets to 20 seconds on an offensive rebound, not 30 seconds.
Because it's still the same possession. Offensive Rebounds don't change possession between teams. So if a team shoots and misses with 0 on the initial shoot clock, then grabs the offensive board and then shoots with 0 on the second shot clock, that's counted as a 50 second possession, not a 30 second possession and a 20 second possession
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You’ve established you don’t understand advanced metrics even though the current head coach and staff uses them regularly.
How did metrics help Shaka today?
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How did metrics help Shaka today?
Don’t know. We’d have to ask him if it influenced his rotations at all. Given that him and his staff have discussed this as to influencing what they do, I’d assume plenty
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Because it's still the same possession. Offensive Rebounds don't change possession between teams. So if a team shoots and misses with 0 on the initial shoot clock, then grabs the offensive board and then shoots with 0 on the second shot clock, that's counted as a 50 second possession, not a 30 second possession and a 20 second possession
Thanks
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Thanks
You're welcome. I didn't realize this either when I first started learning about this stuff
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It will be a big mistake if anyone goes Pro at the end of the season. Take the extra year and continue to learn. How many MU players have gone early in recent years and been successful? The track record has not been good. Scouts don't care. They can take a chance since they have a pool of alternative players in line for just a few positions. individual players only have one shot. They should put themselves in the best position possible before pulling the trigger.
Spot on. There is no one on this roster who is ready to play in the NBA. There’s certainly potential but they all need to get better, be more consistent, get stronger, improve shooting, etc.
If you know you will get drafted and get guaranteed money, then do it. But going the G League route vs. playing big time college hoops is a bad choice IMHO. Shaka has shown how he can develop players…why not take advantage of it?
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There is no one on this roster who is ready to play in the NBA.
It's fairly common for college players to leave for the pro ranks before their eligibility is up even though they aren't "ready." Happens all the time in P6 programs, and even mid-majors.
Just looking at Marquette's recent history: Lewis, Carton, Bailey, Blue. Even Ellenson, who knew he'd be a first-round draft pick, arguably "wasn't ready" and perhaps could have benefited from another year of college ball.
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What has changed is NIL money. Now they can "get paid" to stay another year in college.
Can someone point me to a thread or link that details hat NIL money MU players are getting?
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What has changed is NIL money. Now they can "get paid" to stay another year in college.
Can someone point me to a thread or link that details hat NIL money MU players are getting?
That link does not and will not exist.
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That link does not and will not exist.
So it is a secret?
In football, they regularly publish the NIL deals of top players. They do not do the same in basketball? Or MU keeps it a secret?
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And now we have NIL brokers that take a cut to get kids NIL deals.
https://www.nilnetwork.com/nil-digital-marketplaces/
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It's fairly common for college players to leave for the pro ranks before their eligibility is up even though they aren't "ready." Happens all the time in P6 programs, and even mid-majors.
Just looking at Marquette's recent history: Lewis, Carton, Bailey, Blue. Even Ellenson, who knew he'd be a first-round draft pick, arguably "wasn't ready" and perhaps could have benefited from another year of college ball.
MU82
I know it’s common for guys to leave but in most cases it’s a bad choice. I’m sure Ellenson made a bunch of money as the 18th pick so it’s understandable that he left early. But the other guys you listed are another story. Lewis had improved greatly in one year under Shaka; he likely would’ve benefited greatly from staying.
In retrospect, the Pistons made a terrible decision in drafting Ellenson. He never contributed for them. Poor drafting is why they’ve been terrible for a decade.
Guys leaving too early is bad for both college and pro ball.
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So it is a secret?
In football, they regularly publish the NIL deals of top players. They do not do the same in basketball? Or MU keeps it a secret?
It's a choice by MU. Maybe they change course but I doubt it
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bethedifferencenil.org
Feel free to donate.
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MU82
I know it’s common for guys to leave but in most cases it’s a bad choice. I’m sure Ellenson made a bunch of money as the 18th pick so it’s understandable that he left early. But the other guys you listed are another story. Lewis had improved greatly in one year under Shaka; he likely would’ve benefited greatly from staying.
In retrospect, the Pistons made a terrible decision in drafting Ellenson. He never contributed for them. Poor drafting is why they’ve been terrible for a decade.
Guys leaving too early is bad for both college and pro ball.
It's definitely a terrible choice for fans, who want players to stay as long as possible. As to whether it's a terrible choice for players, that's a case-by-case situation.
I wasn't commenting on how smart the choice might or might not be. I just get a kick out of fans using "readiness" as a gauge to whether or not a player will leave. It quite often has not been an issue in the player's mind.
Now, NIL already has played a role for some of these guys, and maybe it will help Marquette keep some players longer than would have been the case in the pre-NIL days. We'll see!