2016-17:
Non-conf losses: Michigan, Pitt, Wisconsin (3)
Non-conf notable wins: Vanderbilt, Georgia (2)
In conference (different result): W vs. Xavier, W @ Xavier, L @ Prov
In conference (same result) wins: Home vs. Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall
In conference (same result) losses: @ Villanova, @ Butler
(9-3) in Non-conf, (5-3) In Conference vs common opponents.
2017-18:
Non-conf losses: Purdue, Wichita St, Georgia (3)
Non-conf notable wins: VCU, LSU, Vermont, Wisconsin (4)
In conference (different result): L vs. Xavier, L @ Xavier, W @ Prov
In conference (same result) wins: Home vs. Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall
In conference (same result) losses: @ Villanova, @ Butler
(9-3) Non-Conf, (4-4) In Conference vs common opponents.
This season's SOS and RPI is better.
Our record to date (when comparing common conference opponents) is one game worse.
We have two more notable non-conference wins (if we can count UW) this season.
However, we are one game behind our pace last season in conference by beating Prov on the road, but getting swept by Xavier.
Obviously, our signature win last season was our home win vs. Nova, and we have yet to get a signature win this season. Sunday is vitally important to our tournament resume.
If we lose to Nova, we need to hold serve by sweeping Creighton, DePaul, and winning at home vs SJU.
Games where we need to make up ground. Last season we lost @ Seton Hall, vs Prov, @ SJU, vs Butler, @ Georgetown.
Clearly, there is some work to be done.
No.
We don't have the quality wins yet that we had last year. We also don't have any bad losses. Last year we lost to Pitt which turned out to be a bad loss.
The formula is the same as it has been all year. Sweep the remaining 4 against DePaul, Georgetown and SJU. Win 2/3 against Butler, PC and Creighton at home. We're in and probably with a better seed than last year.
Too early to say. End of season resume is all that matters.
I think we're in better shape this year versus last. Computer numbers are stronger. You are also not counting Vermont which is a quality win (Kenpom: 67; RPI: 57).
Not sure 9-9 would have gotten us in last year. I think it does this year. Obviously 10-8 would feel much more comfortable going into BE tournament.
We've also had a more difficult start to conference play than we did last year. The fact that at the halfway point of conference season we're going to be down with X and Nova is big feather in our cap. A win on Sunday would obviously be monumentally huge, but I'm not expecting it.
As MUeagle said, just take care of business against the bottom of the conference and we're at 8 wins. Find way to steal 2 of the 6 remaining games (4 of which are at home), and we're in great shape. 1/6 and we've got a good chance of making it still.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 26, 2018, 10:12:31 AMI think we're in better shape this year versus last. Computer numbers are stronger. You are also not counting Vermont which is a quality win (Kenpom: 67; RPI: 57).
This is key. Vermont is a significant win and a good bit of scheduling. Better than Fresno State last year.
Another key is the buy games. 6 effective buy games last year & 3 sub-300. This year, 5 effective buy games & 2 sub-300. We effectively replaced a buy game with a high major thanks to three games in Maui.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 26, 2018, 10:12:31 AM
I think we're in better shape this year versus last. Computer numbers are stronger. You are also not counting Vermont which is a quality win (Kenpom: 67; RPI: 57).
Not sure 9-9 would have gotten us in last year. I think it does this year. Obviously 10-8 would feel much more comfortable going into BE tournament.
We've also had a more difficult start to conference play than we did last year. The fact that at the halfway point of conference season we're going to be down with X and Nova is big feather in our cap. A win on Sunday would obviously be monumentally huge, but I'm not expecting it.
As MUeagle said, just take care of business against the bottom of the conference and we're at 8 wins. Find way to steal 2 of the 6 remaining games (4 of which are at home), and we're in great shape. 1/6 and we've got a good chance of making it still.
Someone on twitter hit on this, MU is the only team to have played. Both nova and X 2 times in the first half of big east play.
No other team has played either of them more than once.
So we are still right where we thought we'd be with a loss this weekend.
Both Seton Hall and X are better than last year.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 26, 2018, 10:12:31 AM
I think we're in better shape this year versus last. Computer numbers are stronger. You are also not counting Vermont which is a quality win (Kenpom: 67; RPI: 57).
Not sure 9-9 would have gotten us in last year. I think it does this year. Obviously 10-8 would feel much more comfortable going into BE tournament.
We've also had a more difficult start to conference play than we did last year. The fact that at the halfway point of conference season we're going to be down with X and Nova is big feather in our cap. A win on Sunday would obviously be monumentally huge, but I'm not expecting it.
As MUeagle said, just take care of business against the bottom of the conference and we're at 8 wins. Find way to steal 2 of the 6 remaining games (4 of which are at home), and we're in great shape. 1/6 and we've got a good chance of making it still.
I can see 9-9 being a problem if our remaining wins end up being PC, STJ x 2, @ DePaul, @GU.
Short answer is no. Long answer is we can't answer it with the data set you've provided. Our conference schedule difficulty was backloaded last year whereas it is front loaded this year. Yes we're one game worse record-wise but it's also against a harder schedule(last year average KenPom ranking was 51.38 versus this season to date being 47.12).
Additionally, all the data sets indicate that we can perform against the middle and low Big East teams, winning more than we lose. The fact that X and Nova will be in the review mirror before we get to February means we have lots of opportunities to get good wins with solid probabilities (as opposed to great wins with low probabilities, see Nova last season).
Quote from: fjm on January 26, 2018, 10:29:59 AM
Someone on twitter hit on this, MU is the only team to have played. Both nova and X 2 times in the first half of big east play.
No other team has played either of them more than once.
So we are still right where we thought we'd be with a loss this weekend.
True. But, last year we went
3-1 vs X and Nova. This year we will be 0-4 with a loss on Sunday. It doesn't help to get them out of the way, if they are all losses.
Quote from: 94Warrior on January 26, 2018, 10:35:46 AM
True. But, last year we went 3-1 vs X and Nova. This year we will be 0-4 with a loss on Sunday. It doesn't help to get them out of the way, if they are all losses.
Fair point
But last year X was also hit by injuries and therefore not nearly as strong as this year.
Quote from: 94Warrior on January 26, 2018, 10:35:46 AM
True. But, last year we went 3-1 vs X and Nova. This year we will be 0-4 with a loss on Sunday. It doesn't help to get them out of the way, if they are all losses.
Last years X was considerably worse than this years X. They were KenPom ranked 31st team last year, which was built on them being full strength before they almost lost it because of injuries....which is when MU played them. They are 13th this year. Apples and dark chocolate bars.
Quote from: LAZER on January 26, 2018, 10:34:08 AM
I can see 9-9 being a problem if our remaining wins end up being PC, STJ x 2, @ DePaul, @GU.
Meh. Other teams will lose too. I'd certainly feel more comfortable at 10-8, but if we sweep PC, we're going to be clearly ahead of them in the pecking order. I see basically no scenario where the BE gets only 5 bids unless MU and PC both finish under .500 and Gtown turns it on a gets to 9 or 10 wins.
At the end of the day, they need to fill the field. In a couple weeks, I will start analyzing the bubble, but I just don't see who is going to sneak ahead of a 9-9 MU team (if MU sweeps PC).
Quote from: mu03eng on January 26, 2018, 10:38:39 AM
Last years X was considerably worse than this years X. They were KenPom ranked 31st team last year, which was built on them being full strength before they almost lost it because of injuries....which is when MU played them. They are 13th this year. Apples and dark chocolate bars.
Context?
You talking red delicious apples or Honey crisp?
You talking crappy Hershey's dark chocolate or the good Godiva stuff?
Any time you don't have a win over the best team in the country, your resume is going to look worse. I think the consistency of this team (even if it doesn't feel that way) has us under the radar a bit. We have no tremendous wins and we have no (0) BAD losses. We're even steven.
Quote from: GB Warrior on January 26, 2018, 10:45:42 AM
Any time you don't have a win over the best team in the country, your resume is going to look worse. I think the consistency of this team (even if it doesn't feel that way) has us under the radar a bit. We have no tremendous wins and we have no (0) BAD losses. We're even steven.
Seton Hall is a pretty good win. They are 20 in RPI. Pundits down on PC right now, but they're one of the best 15-20 teams in the country.
Quote from: LAZER on January 26, 2018, 10:34:08 AM
I can see 9-9 being a problem if our remaining wins end up being PC, STJ x 2, @ DePaul, @GU.
This scenario would currently net us an RPI of 52 and SOS of 26. I'd be a tad bit nervous but I'd expect to get in provided no disasters in the BET or a crap ton of bracketbusters.
Our resume is a lot stronger this season because our non-conference and the Big East are a lot better than last year.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 26, 2018, 10:38:39 AM
Last years X was considerably worse than this years X. They were KenPom ranked 31st team last year, which was built on them being full strength before they almost lost it because of injuries....which is when MU played them. They are 13th this year. Apples and dark chocolate bars.
Lat year we got wins; this year we got losses. 2 losses to a better X team have to be worse for us than 2 wins over a worse X team last year. There's no way a 20 point difference in ranking for teams we lose to can improve SoS/RPI enough to outweigh a win over a lower ranked team is there?
Quote from: skianth16 on January 26, 2018, 11:18:50 AM
Lat year we got wins; this year we got losses. 2 losses to a better X team have to be worse for us than 2 wins over a worse X team last year. There's no way a 20 point difference in ranking for teams we lose to can improve SoS/RPI enough to outweigh a win over a lower ranked team is there?
X last year is more like PC this year. X is a legit final 4 contender. Last year they were a back-end top 25 team that ended up on the bubble and got hot at the right time.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 26, 2018, 11:21:19 AM
X last year is more like PC this year. X is a legit final 4 contender. Last year they were a back-end top 25 team that ended up on the bubble and got hot at the right time.
This
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 26, 2018, 11:21:19 AM
X last year is more like PC this year. X is a legit final 4 contender. Last year they were a back-end top 25 team that ended up on the bubble and got hot at the right time.
I still go back to pointing out that 2 wins over a top 25-ish team is much better for our resume than losing 2 to a final 4 contender. So if we're comparing our tournament credentials from last year to this year, it seems to me like we're in worse shape now.
Even though the SH win this year is probably better than one of our wins over X last year, I still think we'll need to get one more from SH or PC to have a resume similar to last year. Without our win over Nova last year, we may not have made it. So we might be in a similar spot this year if our biggest W of the year is against SH.
Quote from: skianth16 on January 26, 2018, 11:50:13 AM
I still go back to pointing out that 2 wins over a top 25-ish team is much better for our resume than losing 2 to a final 4 contender. So if we're comparing our tournament credentials from last year to this year, it seems to me like we're in worse shape now.
Even though the SH win this year is probably better than one of our wins over X last year, I still think we'll need to get one more from SH or PC to have a resume similar to last year. Without our win over Nova last year, we may not have made it. So we might be in a similar spot this year if our biggest W of the year is against SH.
Think this is fair but we also have an additional road win over a top 40 team (@PC) that we didn't have last year
Quote from: skianth16 on January 26, 2018, 11:50:13 AM
I still go back to pointing out that 2 wins over a top 25-ish team is much better for our resume than losing 2 to a final 4 contender. So if we're comparing our tournament credentials from last year to this year, it seems to me like we're in worse shape now.
Kind of hard to take this stance when we're dealing with an incomplete data set. I think the answers have been laid out pretty clearly in this thread. Now the games just need to be played.
Quote from: skianth16 on January 26, 2018, 11:50:13 AM
I still go back to pointing out that 2 wins over a top 25-ish team is much better for our resume than losing 2 to a final 4 contender. So if we're comparing our tournament credentials from last year to this year, it seems to me like we're in worse shape now.
Even though the SH win this year is probably better than one of our wins over X last year, I still think we'll need to get one more from SH or PC to have a resume similar to last year. Without our win over Nova last year, we may not have made it. So we might be in a similar spot this year if our biggest W of the year is against SH.
This is correct. Minimum viable results for the schedule after the 9 day break is:
0-2 against @X and Nova (currently 0-1)
2-3 against Creighton, @Creighton, Butler, @Seton Hall, Providence
4-0 against @Georgetown, @St John's, St John's, @DePaul
That gets us to 10-8 with same or more quality wins than last year and no bad losses. Dancing as one of the last teams in. I see no reason why this isn't totally possible with this team.
If we go 3-2 in the middle tier we're 11-7, top 4 in Big East and Dancing with a mid to high seed.
#RespectTheProcess
Quote from: skianth16 on January 26, 2018, 11:50:13 AM
I still go back to pointing out that 2 wins over a top 25-ish team is much better for our resume than losing 2 to a final 4 contender. So if we're comparing our tournament credentials from last year to this year, it seems to me like we're in worse shape now.
Even though the SH win this year is probably better than one of our wins over X last year, I still think we'll need to get one more from SH or PC to have a resume similar to last year. Without our win over Nova last year, we may not have made it. So we might be in a similar spot this year if our biggest W of the year is against SH.
It's a lot more simple than you are making it.
If we go 10-8 we are a stone cold lock, impossible to be left out.
If we go 9-9 we are likely in barring a bad loss in the BET and/or a lot of bracketbusters.
If we go 8-10 we are likely out but could sneak in with some wins in the BET and few to none bracketbusters.
At this point, it doesn't matter who the wins and losses come against.
Quote from: WE R FINAL FOUR on January 26, 2018, 10:32:59 AM
Both Seton Hall and X are better than last year.
Seton Hall is not better this year. They have fallen out of the rankings and I predict they will finish 7th in Big East Conference.
Quote from: bilsu on January 26, 2018, 01:04:42 PM
Seton Hall is not better this year. They have fallen out of the rankings and I predict they will finish 7th in Big East Conference.
Well, this just doesn't make any sense. But I hope you're right because if they finish 7th that means we're pretty solid and top 6.
Quote from: bilsu on January 26, 2018, 01:04:42 PM
Seton Hall is not better this year. They have fallen out of the rankings and I predict they will finish 7th in Big East Conference.
I do love that our fanbase seems to always insist that every team we beat is crap and every team we lose to is crap. Or said another way that every team we play is terrible and that there is no excuse for us to ever lose and every team we do beat we should have beat by more.
Seriously though I have heard multiple comments to this effect from multiple posters this season about:
Purdue (currently ranked #3 in the country)
Wichita State (currently ranked #17 in the country)
LSU (bubble team)
Georgia (bubble team)
Vermont (top 75 team in KenPom)
Wisconsin (accurate)
Xavier (currently ranked #8 in the country)
Georgetown (accurate)
Providence (currently receiving votes for top 25)
Butler (currently receiving votes for top 25)
DePaul (accurate)
I didn't hear them specifically about any of the buy games or VCU but I assume that's because we all know they suck without it being spoken. Apparently every team we play but Nova is terrible. And even the Nova game there were a few people who insisted we shouldn't have lost by 10 in Philly.
7 losses. 5 to ranked teams. The only game Butler has lost at home all year is to Xavier. The closest thing to a bad loss was to Georgia. When MU played cupcakes, there was complaints. This year, MU's SOS is great. Sometimes, when you play good teams, you lose. When you play in an elite conference, you play elite teams. Sometimes you lose.
Marquette is a team with weaknesses. But it is right where it needs to be for a postseason bid.
Quote from: tower912 on January 26, 2018, 01:38:42 PM
7 losses. 5 to ranked teams. The only game Butler has lost at home all year is to Xavier. The closest thing to a bad loss was to Georgia. When MU played cupcakes, there was complaints. This year, MU's SOS is great. Sometimes, when you play good teams, you lose. When you play in an elite conference, you play elite teams. Sometimes you lose.
Marquette is a team with weaknesses. But it is right where it needs to be for a postseason bid.
I'll be more confident in March if we have a better leg to stand on than simply not losing bad games. We could be a .500 team this year with no bad losses, so I don't know how strong that argument is. Outside of Sunday, we don't have any more opportunities to get any head-turning wins with the possible exception of playing at Creighton if they can improve some between now and then. Drop one of the games against SJU or Depaul, and we could be in some trouble.
Quote from: skianth16 on January 26, 2018, 01:42:39 PM
I'll be more confident in March if we have a better leg to stand on than simply not losing bad games. We could be a .500 team this year with no bad losses, so I don't know how strong that argument is. Outside of Sunday, we don't have any more opportunities to get any head-turning wins with the possible exception of playing at Creighton if they can improve some between now and then. Drop one of the games against SJU or Depaul, and we could be in some trouble.
Of course we could be in trouble! If we lose the majority of the games left on our schedule, we're in trouble!!
And disagree about big wins. Every team in the BE outside Depaul, Gtown and SJU this season is a big win. A win @SHU is a huge win. A win @Creighton is a huge win.
As TAMU said, you're too concerned about individual results. Get to 10 wins, we'll be a 7-9 seed, maybe better if we do damage in the BET. Go 9-9, we're likely still in. 8-10, we've got a chance, but wouldn't count on it. Its that simple.
Quote from: skianth16 on January 26, 2018, 01:42:39 PM
I'll be more confident in March if we have a better leg to stand on than simply not losing bad games. We could be a .500 team this year with no bad losses, so I don't know how strong that argument is. Outside of Sunday, we don't have any more opportunities to get any head-turning wins with the possible exception of playing at Creighton if they can improve some between now and then. Drop one of the games against SJU or Depaul, and we could be in some trouble.
If you're definition of "head turning win" is limited to beating the number 1 team in the country or beating the #8 team in the country on the road....than very few teams have headturning wins.
Beating Seton Hall at home and Providence on the road are both head turning wins.
If we add wins like vs Butler, vs Providence, @Seton Hall, @Creighton, vs Creighton those are also head turning wins.
You are overcomplicating it:
10-8 or better: Stone Cold Lock
9-9: Probably in
8-10: Probably out
7-11 or worse: out
Let's face facts here. The Nova win got MU into the Tourney. If MU loses that game, they finish at 9-9 in the BE and without a signature win. In other words, NIT bound!
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on January 26, 2018, 02:09:13 PM
Let's face facts here. The Nova win got MU into the Tourney. If MU loses that game, they finish at 9-9 in the BE and without a signature win. In other words, NIT bound!
ugh, lol.
LOT of whiners in here
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on January 26, 2018, 02:09:13 PM
Let's face facts here. The Nova win got MU into the Tourney. If MU loses that game, they finish at 9-9 in the BE and without a signature win. In other words, NIT bound!
Not if you replace the Nova win with another one. I'd have to run the numbers but I think if you change the Nova win to a loss but change any other loss to a win Marquette still makes the tournament.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 26, 2018, 02:07:32 PM
If you're definition of "head turning win" is limited to beating the number 1 team in the country or beating the #8 team in the country on the road....than very few teams have headturning wins.
Beating Seton Hall at home and Providence on the road are both head turning wins.
If we add wins like vs Butler, vs Providence, @Seton Hall, @Creighton, vs Creighton those are also head turning wins.
You are overcomplicating it:
10-8 or better: Stone Cold Lock
9-9: Probably in
8-10: Probably out
7-11 or worse: out
Beating a team that isn't ranked at home is a head-turning win?
Quote from: mayfairskatingrink on January 26, 2018, 03:05:25 PM
Beating a team that isn't ranked at home is a head-turning win?
Tired of all the crying in the Becky board?
IT'S A CRAPSHOOT!
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 26, 2018, 02:07:32 PM
If you're definition of "head turning win" is limited to beating the number 1 team in the country or beating the #8 team in the country on the road....than very few teams have headturning wins.
Beating Seton Hall at home and Providence on the road are both head turning wins.
If we add wins like vs Butler, vs Providence, @Seton Hall, @Creighton, vs Creighton those are also head turning wins.
You are overcomplicating it:
10-8 or better: Stone Cold Lock
9-9: Probably in
8-10: Probably out
7-11 or worse: out
I think you're one game too optimistic at each record.
With our body of work:
10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period. And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation. Its not a lock.
9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss. Our RPI won't be good enough. Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.
8-10 is definitely out, barring winning the automatic bid.
Yep. Love talking about seeding and our resumé.
Having said that, there are a bunch of guys here (Tamu and Jjjjjjjj and Brew) that have done the research, ran the numbers and know that 9-9 likely puts us in. (Maybe first 4 on a Tuesday night in... but in.)
And I'm inclined to trust those guys because they were dead right last year.
Then there are people who keep bringing up the same arguemebts that the SHU win wasn't good enough and the PC game away wasn't good enough.
It's amazing but some here must feel we will only ever make the tourney if we beat the #1 or #8 teams. Can't wait to see how bad our resume is after Sunday if we lose (which we won't cause we got this shiz)
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 26, 2018, 03:34:08 PM
I think you're one game too optimistic at each record.
With our body of work:
10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period. And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation. Its not a lock.
9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss. Our RPI won't be good enough. Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.
8-10 is definitely out, barring winning the automatic bid.
No, the numbers are right. We know enough that if MU finished in the Big East at 10-8 and was not in the tournament it would be a historic, unprecedented snub by the committee. We would be in the top 48 in every category that counts for tournament appearance, there is no way to not be in.
9-9 requires some help, but would not be unprecedented.
8-10 I tend to agree that it's definitely out because we either only beat Georgetown/St John's/DePaul down the stretch OR we lose at least one of those games which would actually be more negative than winning one against the mid-tier teams.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 26, 2018, 03:52:36 PM
No, the numbers are right. We know enough that if MU finished in the Big East at 10-8 and was not in the tournament it would be a historic, unprecedented snub by the committee. We would be in the top 48 in every category that counts for tournament appearance, there is no way to not be in.
Is there a simple way to explain how you can know that we'd be in the top 48 in relevant categories? It seems to me like there are too many teams and too many variables that can move around in the next 6 weeks to have that kind of certainty.
Quote from: jesmu84 on January 26, 2018, 02:21:51 PM
LOT of whiners in here
- - - - - - thought 1
Lot of Whiners
Lot of Whiners about Whiners
Lot of Whiners about Whiners about Whiners - I think I fit here :o
- - - - - - thought 2
I Have always looked to "Making the Tourney" as my definition of MU success...its a legit way of thinking but I'm getting dissatisfied with the approach. Lets Beat Nova for the sheer glory of it. like Katin last year (was lower bowl...wow).
So trying to wait on tourney speculation until we hit 9 wins.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 26, 2018, 03:34:08 PM
I think you're one game too optimistic at each record.
With our body of work:
10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period. And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation. Its not a lock.
9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss. Our RPI won't be good enough. Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.
8-10 is definitely out, barring winning the automatic bid.
This is wrong. The world doesn't exist in a vacuum.
Quote from: skianth16 on January 26, 2018, 03:57:20 PM
Is there a simple way to explain how you can know that we'd be in the top 48 in relevant categories? It seems to me like there are too many teams and too many variables that can move around in the next 6 weeks to have that kind of certainty.
There are predictive models. If MU goes 10-8, they're gonna be top 50 in RPI with a top 30 SOS, no horrific loses (perhaps no bad losses); and they'll be top 50 in kenpom, Sagrin or any other meaningful analytics ranking you want refer. Finish with a winning record in a top 3 (at minimum) conference top to bottom with a true round robin schedule. There is no way that team gets left out. Look around the game. What conferences are racking up these bids that a 10-8 BE with a legit non con slate gets left out?
It would be purely unprecedented and it's not going to happen.
Quote from: skianth16 on January 26, 2018, 03:57:20 PM
Is there a simple way to explain how you can know that we'd be in the top 48 in relevant categories? It seems to me like there are too many teams and too many variables that can move around in the next 6 weeks to have that kind of certainty.
Simple explanation is math(statistics and probabilities to be fair). There are no combinations in which we finish 10-8 AND things like our SoS and RPI can fall below the necessarily level. Anything more than that is a long explanation
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 26, 2018, 04:22:13 PM
This is wrong. The world doesn't exist in a vacuum.
This is untrue, our world literally exists within a vacuum #SpaceJoke
Overall I would say our resume this year is roughly the same as last year. My projection is we will continue to play well, benefit from the order of teams played on the schedule , finish 3rd in the Big East. Do well in the Big East tournament and Make the NCAA tournament.
I think we are going to be on of those teams that no one wants to face in the tournament. The Big 3 are perfect tournament players. There is little prep time in the tournament and we have seen when opponents focus on one of the Big 3 the others still do well. When they all get hot, the other team will be demoralized. The rest of our line up will play its role well. All of our freshman will be Big East battle tested by the time the tournament rolls around.
I see us peaking at the right time and getting to the second weekend of the tournament.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 26, 2018, 03:34:08 PM
I think you're one game too optimistic at each record.
With our body of work:
10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period. And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation. Its not a lock.
9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss. Our RPI won't be good enough. Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.
8-10 is definitely out, barring winning the automatic bid.
A 10-8 BE team will not be left out of the dance this year. It has been already established that tournament results do little to influence selection committee unless team is borderline and needs a win or make a run to the finals. If we are 10-8 we'll be in, a loss in tournament might affect our seeding and that is about it.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 26, 2018, 03:34:08 PM
I think you're one game too optimistic at each record.
With our body of work:
10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period. And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation. Its not a lock.
9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss. Our RPI won't be good enough. Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.
8-10 is definitely out, barring winning the automatic bid.
10-8 with a loss to the 10th place team (likely St. John's) would currently put us at 19-12 with 49 RPI and 29 SOS. If you find me a high major team that was left out with that resume than I will believe you.
9-9 before the BET currently gives us an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26. As I said in my post, a first round BET loss could put this in jeopardy but you're insisting that our resume wouldn't be good before the BET. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26 and I will believe you.
8-10 would likely get us the 7th seed in the BET. A win against the 10th seed (likely St. John's), would lead to a matchup with the 2 seed (likely Xavier), a win their would result in a matchup with the 3/6 seed, assuming the 3 seed advances (likely Seton Hall) and we lose that would currently put our RPI at 53 and SOS at 19. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 53 and an SOS of 19 and I will believe you. And this doesn't even include the possibility that we could beat the 3 seed and then lose in the championship (RPI 44, SOS 12 assuming Villanova makes the championship).
The Big East is very strong this season. Our non-conference schedule was very strong this season and that is a huge boost to our computer numbers.
Oh, and regarding the bolded. Our current RPI is 51 and SOS is 34. Since you are so insistent that beating Georgia was more important than beating VCU I decided to test your theory. I switched Georgia to a win, VCU to a loss, dropped the Wichita State/LSU games and substituted in a win against Cal and a loss against Michigan. Our numbers changed to RPI 57 SOS 53. Even if we beat Michigan our numbers would be RPI 44 SOS 53, a worse resume. If we had played LSU that team that was "supposed" to be in the 5th place game the numbers are even worse. It wasn't about getting to lose to Wichita State. It was about not losing to a resume killer like VCU and having to play an even bigger resume killer in Cal.
[Ws against VCU/LSU with Ls against WSU/UGA] is a better outcome than [Ws against UGA/CAL with Ls against VCU/MICH]
Gotta wait 5 years ta judge, aina?
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 26, 2018, 06:29:22 PM
10-8 with a loss to the 10th place team (likely St. John's) would currently put us at 19-12 with 49 RPI and 29 SOS. If you find me a high major team that was left out with that resume than I will believe you.
9-9 before the BET currently gives us an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26. As I said in my post, a first round BET loss could put this in jeopardy but you're insisting that our resume wouldn't be good before the BET. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26 and I will believe you.
8-10 would likely get us the 7th seed in the BET. A win against the 10th seed (likely St. John's), would lead to a matchup with the 2 seed (likely Xavier), a win their would result in a matchup with the 3/6 seed, assuming the 3 seed advances (likely Seton Hall) and we lose that would currently put our RPI at 53 and SOS at 19. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 53 and an SOS of 19 and I will believe you. And this doesn't even include the possibility that we could beat the 3 seed and then lose in the championship (RPI 44, SOS 12 assuming Villanova makes the championship).
The Big East is very strong this season. Our non-conference schedule was very strong this season and that is a huge boost to our computer numbers.
Oh, and regarding the bolded. Our current RPI is 51 and SOS is 34. Since you are so insistent that beating Georgia was more important than beating VCU I decided to test your theory. I switched Georgia to a win, VCU to a loss, dropped the Wichita State/LSU games and substituted in a win against Cal and a loss against Michigan. Our numbers changed to RPI 57 SOS 53. Even if we beat Michigan our numbers would be RPI 44 SOS 53, a worse resume. If we had played LSU that team that was "supposed" to be in the 5th place game the numbers are even worse. It wasn't about getting to lose to Wichita State. It was about not losing to a resume killer like VCU and having to play an even bigger resume killer in Cal.
[Ws against VCU/LSU with Ls against WSU/UGA] is a better outcome than [Ws against UGA/CAL with Ls against VCU/MICH]
Oh man I love this.
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/7rj2ZgttvgomY/giphy.gif)
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 26, 2018, 06:29:22 PM
10-8 with a loss to the 10th place team (likely St. John's) would currently put us at 19-12 with 49 RPI and 29 SOS. If you find me a high major team that was left out with that resume than I will believe you.
9-9 before the BET currently gives us an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26. As I said in my post, a first round BET loss could put this in jeopardy but you're insisting that our resume wouldn't be good before the BET. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26 and I will believe you.
8-10 would likely get us the 7th seed in the BET. A win against the 10th seed (likely St. John's), would lead to a matchup with the 2 seed (likely Xavier), a win their would result in a matchup with the 3/6 seed, assuming the 3 seed advances (likely Seton Hall) and we lose that would currently put our RPI at 53 and SOS at 19. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 53 and an SOS of 19 and I will believe you. And this doesn't even include the possibility that we could beat the 3 seed and then lose in the championship (RPI 44, SOS 12 assuming Villanova makes the championship).
The Big East is very strong this season. Our non-conference schedule was very strong this season and that is a huge boost to our computer numbers.
Oh, and regarding the bolded. Our current RPI is 51 and SOS is 34. Since you are so insistent that beating Georgia was more important than beating VCU I decided to test your theory. I switched Georgia to a win, VCU to a loss, dropped the Wichita State/LSU games and substituted in a win against Cal and a loss against Michigan. Our numbers changed to RPI 57 SOS 53. Even if we beat Michigan our numbers would be RPI 44 SOS 53, a worse resume. If we had played LSU that team that was "supposed" to be in the 5th place game the numbers are even worse. It wasn't about getting to lose to Wichita State. It was about not losing to a resume killer like VCU and having to play an even bigger resume killer in Cal.
[Ws against VCU/LSU with Ls against WSU/UGA] is a better outcome than [Ws against UGA/CAL with Ls against VCU/MICH]
No. Our resume is incomplete.
Ask again in 6 weeks.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 26, 2018, 04:22:31 PM
Simple explanation is math(statistics and probabilities to be fair). There are no combinations in which we finish 10-8 AND things like our SoS and RPI can fall below the necessarily level. Anything more than that is a long explanation
Oh, math. Silly me, I thought this was all about grammar.
Great answer.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 26, 2018, 03:34:08 PM10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period. And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation. Its not a lock.
9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss. Our RPI won't be good enough. Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.
Are you trying to create a new bar for stupid posts on Scoop? Ners set it pretty high, but you are really, really trying to get over it.
If we go 10-8, we are in. Full stop. Period. Guaranteed. The ONLY ways we don't get in with a 10-8 Big East record is if we refuse the invitation, Al style, or if we end up on probation from the NCAA between now and March 11.
To your 9-9 comments, give it a rest. You clearly don't get the math. Losing to VCU would not have helped us even had we won in the losers bracket, and as we went 2-1 in Maui with a LSU win that looks better and better with age, your position has only become more indefensible. You were wrong then, you are more wrong now. Let it go.
We got this.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 27, 2018, 07:04:34 AM
Are you trying to create a new bar for stupid posts on Scoop? Ners set it pretty high, but you are really, really trying to get over it.
If we go 10-8, we are in. Full stop. Period. Guaranteed. The ONLY ways we don't get in with a 10-8 Big East record is if we refuse the invitation, Al style, or if we end up on probation from the NCAA between now and March 11.
St. Johns 2014 was 10-8 and didn't get in. Similar body of work--no signature non-conference wins. 3rd place tie at 10-8. 0-4 against the teams ahead of them in standings, first round loss in the BET.
I look at the body of work, and I see enough similarities that I don't view us as a solid lock if we're in a multi-way tie for 3rd or 4th place, 7th seed in the tournament and first round loss to St. Johns. Which is very possible the way the standings are shaping up.
And if the only counterargument is we'll have a better RPI than St.Johns, then that's your view. We didn't really have a better body of work, and every other 10-8 team from the Big East in the last four years that got in with a 10-8 record also had some defining win. Do we have anything on this year's body of work that matches a win over #1 Villanova?
My view is that RPI is one of many things the committee looks at--but they also look at the body of work. YOu still have to win some games against tournament-worthy competition, and I think we're lacking in that category. If we have an RPI of 50, no wins against the teams ahead of us in the standings, 6 of our 10 wins are piled up against the worst 3 teams in the league, and a first round tournament loss--well, I think that would give the committee some pause.
I still think we would make it, but I would't bet the mortgage on it, and contrary to repeated belief, it is not unprecedented for the NCAA to leave out teams with a similar body of work.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 27, 2018, 07:04:34 AM
To your 9-9 comments, give it a rest. You clearly don't get the math. Losing to VCU would not have helped us even had we won in the losers bracket, and as we went 2-1 in Maui with a LSU win that looks better and better with age, your position has only become more indefensible. You were wrong then, you are more wrong now. Let it go.
I'll put this to rest right now: Run the numbers on our projected RPI at RPIWizard.com.
Baseline (Your scenario of beating VCU)
- Add the following wins for the rest of the season
- Project wins: Butler, Providence, @St. Johns, @DePaul, St. Johns @Georgetown (brings us to 10)
- Project losses: Creighton, @Creighton, @Seton Hall (brings us to 8)
- Add a road game against St. Johns in the BET, project a loss
RPI of 50.
My scenario--losing to VCU, followed by 2 wins, and beating Georgia at home:
RPI of 45.
So tell me again who doesn't get the math. Beating VCU simply wasn't the all-important game you made it out to be.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 29, 2018, 01:29:07 PM
St. Johns 2014 was 10-8 and didn't get in. Similar body of work--no signature non-conference wins. 3rd place tie at 10-8. 0-4 against the teams ahead of them in standings, first round loss in the BET.
I look at the body of work, and I see enough similarities that I don't view us as a solid lock if we're in a multi-way tie for 3rd or 4th place, 7th seed in the tournament and first round loss to St. Johns. Which is very possible the way the standings are shaping up.
And if the only counterargument is we'll have a better RPI than St.Johns, then that's your view. We didn't really have a better body of work, and every other 10-8 team from the Big East in the last four years that got in with a 10-8 record also had some defining win. Do we have anything on this year's body of work that matches a win over #1 Villanova?
My view is that RPI is one of many things the committee looks at--but they also look at the body of work. YOu still have to win some games against tournament-worthy competition, and I think we're lacking in that category. If we have an RPI of 50, no wins against the teams ahead of us in the standings, 6 of our 10 wins are piled up against the worst 3 teams in the league, and a first round tournament loss--well, I think that would give the committee some pause.
I still think we would make it, but I would't bet the mortgage on it, and contrary to repeated belief, it is not unprecedented for the NCAA to leave out teams with a similar body of work.
SJU's RPI in 2014 was 82. They lost every game game of significant in noncon. Their best noncon win was over a 16-17 (6-12) Georgia Tech team. Their next best wins were Bucknell, Fordham and San Fransisco.
This is not a good comp.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 29, 2018, 01:29:07 PM
St. Johns 2014 was 10-8 and didn't get in. Similar body of work--no signature non-conference wins. 3rd place tie at 10-8. 0-4 against the teams ahead of them in standings, first round loss in the BET.
I look at the body of work, and I see enough similarities that I don't view us as a solid lock if we're in a multi-way tie for 3rd or 4th place, 7th seed in the tournament and first round loss to St. Johns. Which is very possible the way the standings are shaping up.
And if the only counterargument is we'll have a better RPI than St.Johns, then that's your view. We didn't really have a better body of work, and every other 10-8 team from the Big East in the last four years that got in with a 10-8 record also had some defining win. Do we have anything on this year's body of work that matches a win over #1 Villanova?
Nice try.
In 2013-2014, the Big East was IMMENSELY weaker than it is this season. That year the Big East only sent 4 teams to the dance, one of them (Providence) only made it because they won the BET. Another (Xavier) had to play in Dayton. The other two (Villanova and Creighton) lost in the round of 32. 10-8 in that Big East is nowhere near 10-8 in this Big East.
St. John's RPI that year was 65, much lower than the 45-50 we project to be if we go 10-8. Their SOS was 50, much lower than the 25-30 we are projecting to be. In addition to that, they had two losses that were much worse than anything we currently have on our resume (Penn State and @DePaul) losing to us also didn't help. Saint John's also went 2-9 against NCAA tournament teams that year with one of the 2 wins being against a team that only made it because they won their conference tournament.
Despite all those significant reasons that 13-14's SJU resume was SO much worse than Marquette's theoretical 10-8 resume this season, they still were a 1 seed in the NIT. Meaning that they were one of the first four teams left out. Possibly would have even made it in with one less bracketbuster. 13-14 Saint John's just goes to show how much of an iron clad lock Marquette is if they go 10-8 this year.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 29, 2018, 01:29:07 PM
I'll put this to rest right now: Run the numbers on our projected RPI at RPIWizard.com.
Baseline (Your scenario of beating VCU)
- Add the following wins for the rest of the season
- Project wins: Butler, Providence, @St. Johns, @DePaul, St. Johns @Georgetown (brings us to 10)
- Project losses: Creighton, @Creighton, @Seton Hall (brings us to 8)
- Add a road game against St. Johns in the BET, project a loss
RPI of 50.
My scenario--losing to VCU, followed by 2 wins, and beating Georgia at home:
RPI of 45.
So tell me again who doesn't get the math. Beating VCU simply wasn't the all-important game you made it out to be.
This was answered earlier in the thread (you may have missed the standing ovation gifs):
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 26, 2018, 06:29:22 PM
Oh, and regarding the bolded. Our current RPI is 51 and SOS is 34. Since you are so insistent that beating Georgia was more important than beating VCU I decided to test your theory. I switched Georgia to a win, VCU to a loss, dropped the Wichita State/LSU games and substituted in a win against Cal and a loss against Michigan. Our numbers changed to RPI 57 SOS 53. Even if we beat Michigan our numbers would be RPI 44 SOS 53, a worse resume. If we had played LSU that team that was "supposed" to be in the 5th place game the numbers are even worse. It wasn't about getting to lose to Wichita State. It was about not losing to a resume killer like VCU and having to play an even bigger resume killer in Cal.
[Ws against VCU/LSU with Ls against WSU/UGA] is a better outcome than [Ws against UGA/CAL with Ls against VCU/MICH]
There is no scenario where losing to VCU is better than beating VCU. And yes, it was more impactful than the UGA game. I did think it was nice trick though when earlier in the post you said "the committee looks at more than just RPI" and then when answering this part of the question you only listed the RPI and left off the significantly weakened SOS. I also liked that you assumed we would beat Michigan when any ranking system at this point would say that Michigan would be the favorite on a neutral court.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 29, 2018, 01:29:07 PM
So tell me again who doesn't get the math.
Still you.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 29, 2018, 01:59:01 PM
SJU's RPI in 2014 was 82. They lost every game game of significant in noncon. Their best noncon win was over a 16-17 (6-12) Georgia Tech team. Their next best wins were Bucknell, Fordham and San Fransisco.
This is not a good comp.
Where did you get your RPI number? The only site I found with historical RPI data was EPSN and they had it at 65 (but they are notorious for getting it wrong). If you have a site with that data I'd love to know it.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 29, 2018, 02:04:46 PM
Where did you get your RPI number? The only site I found with historical RPI data was EPSN and they had it at 65 (but they are notorious for getting it wrong). If you have a site with that data I'd love to know it.
Here are a couple sources:
http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2014MBBrpi1.html (http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/2014MBBrpi1.html)
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/rpi (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/rpi)
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 29, 2018, 02:03:00 PM
Nice try.
In 2013-2014, the Big East was IMMENSELY weaker than it is this season. That year the Big East only sent 4 teams to the dance, one of them (Providence) only made it because they won the BET. Another (Xavier) had to play in Dayton. The other two (Villanova and Creighton) lost in the round of 32. 10-8 in that Big East is nowhere near 10-8 in this Big East.
Villanova was a 2 seed and Creighton was a 3 seed. The fact that they were UPSET in the Round of 32 doesn't mean they were IMMENSELY weaker.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 29, 2018, 02:03:00 PM
St. John's RPI that year was 65, much lower than the 45-50 we project to be if we go 10-8. Their SOS was 50, much lower than the 25-30 we are projecting to be. In addition to that, they had two losses that were much worse than anything we currently have on our resume (Penn State and @DePaul) losing to us also didn't help. Saint John's also went 2-9 against NCAA tournament teams that year with one of the 2 wins being against a team that only made it because they won their conference tournament.
That's fine. I already said you'd make the RPI argument. That's really the only thing different. I'm not comfortable if we are the worst seed in a multi-way tie, and wind up losing to the worst team in the conference in the first round of the BET.
If you're 100% certain, all the power to you. That's your view.
I simply don't think there's enough in our body of work to call us a iron clad lock. Last year we had a win over #1 Villanova. I felt better then.
In any event, we may have the chance to find out soon enough. If we wind up in the position I described after the BET, we'll see if we're in 100% of the brackets or not. Or if anyone here expresses concern that we might not be picked.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 29, 2018, 02:03:00 PM
There is no scenario where losing to VCU is better than beating VCU. And yes, it was more impactful than the UGA game. I did think it was nice trick though when earlier in the post you said "the committee looks at more than just RPI" and then when answering this part of the question you only listed the RPI and left off the significantly weakened SOS.
I also didn't include the significantly strengthened adjusted winning percentage. Because like the SOS, its already incorporated into the overall RPI.
I'm willing to admit that the SOS by beating VCU was better. Slightly (31 versus 37).
But more importantly, it was not better enough to offset the more significant drop in our adjusted winning percentage (or any OOWP impact), which resulted in a net 5 point drop in RPI by beating VCU instead of Georgia.
And that was my point from the get-go. Georgia would have been a more important win. We would be in a better position today if we had lost to VCU and beat Georgia at home.
FWIW... MU has one loss outside of Quadrant 1.
Michigan losing to LSU really threw off the math. Had the Wolverines won, the winners bracket would have been much stronger and the losers bracket much weaker.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 29, 2018, 06:57:37 PM
Villanova was a 2 seed and Creighton was a 3 seed. The fact that they were UPSET in the Round of 32 doesn't mean they were IMMENSELY weaker.
Sure. But the fact that they only got 4 bids, one of which was Dayton, another of which was an autobid for Providence winning the BET does mean they were IMMENSELY weaker.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 29, 2018, 06:57:37 PM
That's fine. I already said you'd make the RPI argument. That's really the only thing different. I'm not comfortable if we are the worst seed in a multi-way tie, and wind up losing to the worst team in the conference in the first round of the BET.
Well RPI is the main thing the committee looks at so that's a BIG difference. And it's not the only one. SOS was about 20 points weaker for Saint John's. They also had a loss to a sub 100 RPI team (Penn State) and a loss to a sub 150 RPI team (DePaul). Marquette's worse loss at this point is to a Georgia team that has been flirting with the top 50.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 29, 2018, 06:57:37 PM
If you're 100% certain, all the power to you. That's your view.
I simply don't think there's enough in our body of work to call us a iron clad lock. Last year we had a win over #1 Villanova. I felt better then.
In any event, we may have the chance to find out soon enough. If we wind up in the position I described after the BET, we'll see if we're in 100% of the brackets or not. Or if anyone here expresses concern that we might not be picked.
That's your opinion. It's not backed by any facts but it's your opinion. If you can find me a high major team that has been left out since the tournament expanded to 68 teams with a top 50 RPI and a top 30 SOS than I will be inclined to believe you. Heck, if you found one since the field expanded to 64 I would be surprised.
Quote from: The Equalizer on January 29, 2018, 06:57:37 PM
I also didn't include the significantly strengthened adjusted winning percentage. Because like the SOS, its already incorporated into the overall RPI.
I'm willing to admit that the SOS by beating VCU was better. Slightly (31 versus 37).
But more importantly, it was not better enough to offset the more significant drop in our adjusted winning percentage (or any OOWP impact), which resulted in a net 5 point drop in RPI by beating VCU instead of Georgia.
And that was my point from the get-go. Georgia would have been a more important win. We would be in a better position today if we had lost to VCU and beat Georgia at home.
SOS is included in RPI, but it is also a separate stat listed on the team sheets used by the committee. You also have no idea if it would improved the adjusted winning percentage. There is ZERO reason to assume that we would have beaten Michigan. Every prediction model would favor Michigan on a neutral court.
Again here are the results of the various scenarios (this was calcuated before the Villanova loss).
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 26, 2018, 06:29:22 PM
Oh, and regarding the bolded. Our current RPI is 51 and SOS is 34. Since you are so insistent that beating Georgia was more important than beating VCU I decided to test your theory. I switched Georgia to a win, VCU to a loss, dropped the Wichita State/LSU games and substituted in a win against Cal and a loss against Michigan. Our numbers changed to RPI 57 SOS 53. Even if we beat Michigan our numbers would be RPI 44 SOS 53, a worse resume. If we had played LSU that team that was "supposed" to be in the 5th place game the numbers are even worse. It wasn't about getting to lose to Wichita State. It was about not losing to a resume killer like VCU and having to play an even bigger resume killer in Cal.
[Ws against VCU/LSU with Ls against WSU/UGA] is a better outcome than [Ws against UGA/CAL with Ls against VCU/MICH]
You are wrong. I don't speak in absolutes often but you are wrong. Losing to VCU and having to play Cal would have bombed our resume, much worse than a loss to Georgia did.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 29, 2018, 07:01:29 PM
FWIW... MU has one loss outside of Quadrant 1.
Now you are just going to confuse him.