MUScoop

MUScoop => The Superbar => Topic started by: keefe on January 14, 2014, 06:38:34 PM

Title: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 14, 2014, 06:38:34 PM
I recalled this article from The Atlantic Monthly last year. How accurate is this? Reads like Dickens.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/free-falling-in-milwaukee-a-close-up-on-one-citys-middle-class-decline/250100/
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: 🏀 on January 14, 2014, 09:02:45 PM
Replace Milwaukee with America, yeah?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 14, 2014, 10:11:01 PM
Replace Milwaukee with America, yeah?

When did this begin? About 5 years ago?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on January 14, 2014, 10:43:04 PM
When did this begin? About 5 years ago?

1965
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 15, 2014, 12:02:05 AM
1965

Great Society
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: GGGG on January 15, 2014, 08:10:26 AM
The biggest reason for the decline of the middle class in Milwaukee?  The Milwaukee Public Schools.

My wife grew up in Milwaukee...and not a single one of her close classmates from high school still live there.  They live in Oak Creek, Waukesha, Oconomowoc, etc.  The reason has almost entirely to do with the Milwaukee Public Schools.

Now that I only have a couple years to go until my youngest is off to college, if life ever brought me back to Milwaukee, I have no doubts that we would actually live in the city itself.  There are still a lot of great neighborhoods that are relatively close to everything.  And it's cheaper than the suburbs.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: 4everwarriors on January 15, 2014, 08:17:59 AM
Property taxes in Milwaukee are far > suburbs.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: GGGG on January 15, 2014, 08:19:19 AM
Let me also add that while the "general manufacturing" jobs of the past are indeed gone, there is still a need for "skilled" blue collar labor in Milwaukee.  

Simply put, there are options for those who get through high school and beyond.  You don't need a four year degree to make a nice living in Milwaukee.

http://www.jsonline.com/business/skilled-trades-prepare-to-battle-looming-shortages-of-workers-2m796ah-176114351.html
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: GGGG on January 15, 2014, 08:22:09 AM
Property taxes in Milwaukee are far > suburbs.

But is that because of a difference in valuations?  For instance, if I owned a house in Milwaukee...or the same exact house in New Berlin, I know that the *rate* would be higher in Milwaukee.  But would the actual $$$ be higher as well?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: 4everwarriors on January 15, 2014, 08:26:57 AM
Maybe someone who actually has the figures can post. My recollection is that it's not even close. Milwaukee County's rate is outrageous.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: hairy worthen on January 15, 2014, 08:40:37 AM
But is that because of a difference in valuations?  For instance, if I owned a house in Milwaukee...or the same exact house in New Berlin, I know that the *rate* would be higher in Milwaukee.  But would the actual $$$ be higher as well?

too lazy to look up the numbers, but just my observations from talking to people I know, My taxes in Delafield are the same as someone living in Milwaukee with a house about the third of the value.  West Milwaukee has the highest tax rate of all.

Many cities have similar issues, I have no idea why they chose Milwaukee to write about and then take pictures of the worst parts of town to make it look like East Berlin. Sultan you are correct, many people flee the city because of the crappy schools.

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 15, 2014, 08:42:18 AM
But is that because of a difference in valuations?  For instance, if I owned a house in Milwaukee...or the same exact house in New Berlin, I know that the *rate* would be higher in Milwaukee.  But would the actual $$$ be higher as well?

Yes...City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County are insanely more expensive.  Same house in Franklin vs New Berlin is about a $2000 delta per year.  City of Milwaukee is worse.  Additionally, MPS spends a metric ton of money per pupil

http://www.jsonline.com/news/education/mps-wisconsin-rank-high-in-per-pupil-spending-b9915750z1-208377331.html (http://www.jsonline.com/news/education/mps-wisconsin-rank-high-in-per-pupil-spending-b9915750z1-208377331.html)
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: BrewCity83 on January 15, 2014, 08:42:44 AM
Right, it's mostly Milwaukee County with the high tax rates.  The valuations in the city are relatively low compared to the suburbs, but the tax rates are WAY higher in Milw. Co.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Freeport Warrior on January 15, 2014, 08:42:54 AM
Maybe someone who actually has the figures can post. My recollection is that it's not even close. Milwaukee County's rate is outrageous.
We were just talking about this at work. One of my employees lives in Bay View (the new "it" place in Milwaukee County for the young crowd) and pays $5,000 taxes for a house somewhere around 180k. In Brookfield, it would be around $3,000.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 15, 2014, 09:00:03 AM
We were just talking about this at work. One of my employees lives in Bay View (the new "it" place in Milwaukee County for the young crowd) and pays $5,000 taxes for a house somewhere around 180k. In Brookfield, it would be around $3,000.

LMAO, move to Dane County and cry about high taxes.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 15, 2014, 09:06:21 AM
LMAO, move to Dane County and cry about high taxes.

Those that choose to live in Moscow West......  ;D
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: 4everwarriors on January 15, 2014, 09:06:41 AM
LMAO, move to Dane County and cry about high taxes.

Doesn't seem to affect F*ckin'. Guess when you got it, you got it.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: LAZER on January 15, 2014, 09:10:26 AM
I caught this a while back, thought it was pretty well done.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/two-american-families/

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Canned Goods n Ammo on January 15, 2014, 09:24:49 AM


#1 Milwaukee, the city, needs good, local jobs (ie downtown, 3rd Ward, Eastside, Bayview, etc.). A mix of professional, retail, service, and production. It's honestly not terrible right now, but obviously MORE would be better.

#2 There are some decent neighborhoods, although some of the older homes are going to need some work (Old houses are not for everybody).  

#3 The schools need work, but they also need better PR. It's gotten to the point where everybody who is 30+ flees the city without actually researching the schools. MPS was a non-starter for them. That's a problem. MPS has some good options, but people don't even want to hear it.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Spotcheck Billy on January 15, 2014, 09:29:23 AM
We were just talking about this at work. One of my employees lives in Bay View (the new "it" place in Milwaukee County for the young crowd) and pays $5,000 taxes for a house somewhere around 180k. In Brookfield, it would be around $3,000.

but that house would be valued at $300K or thereabouts and the total property tax would still be about $5K I'd bet.

I grew up in Menomonee Falls in the 60's and when we was fortunate enough to be able to afford to buy a house we couldn't afford the houses in Waukesha County and had to buy one in MKE County. IMO, I'm still better off 20 years later because the difference in purchase cost is still greater than the extra I've paid in property taxes since 1992 and you can't beat the convenience of being less than 15 minutes from Summerfest or the Bradley Center etc.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 15, 2014, 09:35:24 AM

#3 The schools need work, but they also need better PR. It's gotten to the point where everybody who is 30+ flees the city without actually researching the schools. MPS was a non-starter for them. That's a problem. MPS has some good options, but people don't even want to hear it.


The real issue is the area's that need the most economic help are also the areas where MPS sucks the most.  You might say, well no kidding, but for the amount of money they spend they should be able to moderate that somewhat.  Additionally, yes there are some decent options for the middle class in MPS but that limits the growth to those specific areas.  Too much hassle to move into an "up and coming" neighborhood but ship the kids to a decent school not in the area.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Chili on January 15, 2014, 09:43:13 AM
The biggest reason for the decline of the middle class in Milwaukee?  The Milwaukee Public Schools.

My wife grew up in Milwaukee...and not a single one of her close classmates from high school still live there.  They live in Oak Creek, Waukesha, Oconomowoc, etc.  The reason has almost entirely to do with the Milwaukee Public Schools.

Now that I only have a couple years to go until my youngest is off to college, if life ever brought me back to Milwaukee, I have no doubts that we would actually live in the city itself.  There are still a lot of great neighborhoods that are relatively close to everything.  And it's cheaper than the suburbs.

This is one reason why in Bay View the parents in the neighborhood have decided to petition (successfully) to bring back neighborhood schools and stop the asinine busing programming. So far grade and middle schools have changed and they are working towards bringing Bay View HS back to a neighborhood school so parents can be part of their child's education.

I loved living in Bay View and still would be if I didn't move to Chicago for work. Also, after having grown in up Waukesha, would never think of living in a far out suburb. You lose way to much culture and the opportunity of diverse experiences goes WAY down. Property taxes is only one thing IMO as I think quality of life in a city is much richer than suburbia. 
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Canned Goods n Ammo on January 15, 2014, 09:45:04 AM
The real issue is the area's that need the most economic help are also the areas where MPS sucks the most.  You might say, well no kidding, but for the amount of money they spend they should be able to moderate that somewhat.  Additionally, yes there are some decent options for the middle class in MPS but that limits the growth to those specific areas.  Too much hassle to move into an "up and coming" neighborhood but ship the kids to a decent school not in the area.

Agreed.

My example is very local, but I have had 2 different couples move out of Milwaukee "because of the schools".

When I asked what schools were in their neighborhood, they had no idea... and to be honest, neither do I.

But, the perception of MPS is so bad, that these people sold their houses and moved to the burbs without even considering MPS.

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Abode4life on January 15, 2014, 09:48:40 AM
There was an story that didn't get much traction a couple years ago about MATC changing their curriculum to be more like a four year degree as opposed to skilled trades.  That also helped add to the shortage of skilled labor.  My uncle owns a small manufacturing shop on the south side and he always complains about how he can't find any quality labor.  That is compounded by a lot of companies taking away the apprenticeship programs that they have had in the past.  

Also, a big complaint of Barrett is that he has not done anything meaningful to solve some of these problems.  He seems fine with the status quo and has not helped a large portion of the city population.  Surprising he has never really been challenged though.  
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Abode4life on January 15, 2014, 09:52:26 AM
Agreed.

My example is very local, but I have had 2 different couples move out of Milwaukee "because of the schools".

When I asked what schools were in their neighborhood, they had no idea... and to be honest, neither do I.

But, the perception of MPS is so bad, that these people sold their houses and moved to the burbs without even considering MPS.



Also doesn't help when MPS is selling abandoned schools to developers and specifically excluding good private schools from bidding on the properties to increase their enrollment.

Also, as far as the housing question, I live in Tosa, but literally right on the border of Milwaukee.  My house (A duplex) is more than half the value of my parents out in Delafield, roughly 200 square feet smaller, and I pay more in taxes than there. 
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MARQTTE on January 15, 2014, 09:53:01 AM
but that house would be valued at $300K or thereabouts and the total property tax would still be about $5K I'd bet.

This is spot on for a house in New Berlin.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: WellsstreetWanderer on January 15, 2014, 09:57:29 AM
AS it is everywhere in the country, the reputation of the schools is paramount. The quality or perceived quality of the local schools drive the property values. Failing schools drive concerned parents out of the city, decreases property values  and it cascades downward ala Detroit and elsewhere.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Abode4life on January 15, 2014, 09:59:44 AM
This is spot on for a house in New Berlin.

For my example of Tosa vs. Delafield, the total taxes for each property is what I mean.  I pay more than there and they have an acre lot.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: hairy worthen on January 15, 2014, 10:09:53 AM

I loved living in Bay View and still would be if I didn't move to Chicago for work. Also, after having grown in up Waukesha, would never think of living in a far out suburb. You lose way to much culture and the opportunity of diverse experiences goes WAY down. Property taxes is only one thing IMO as I think quality of life in a city is much richer than suburbia. 

To each their own. The taxes are one thing, but a relatively small thing.  I prefer being away from the city lights, traffic congestion, crime, and poor schools that comes with a big city. I would rather be out in an area with space and forests away from the city lights.  I can still experience city culture with a 30 minute drive and then go back home.  I feel the quality of life is much better away from the city and the taxes are less.  It’s not an absolute which life style is better one way or another.

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Spotcheck Billy on January 15, 2014, 10:17:06 AM
Delafield is kinda out there a ways compared to New Berlin, Brookfield etc.

western Waukesha county is having water issues and sewer/water costs really have to be included with property tax rankings IMO

friends in New Berlin etc. never like hearing me mention how low my sewer/water bills are when compared to theirs, their monthly costs are higher than my quarterly bills
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: JWags85 on January 15, 2014, 10:20:27 AM
  I can still experience city culture with a 30 minute drive and then go back home. 

Driving distance is never a good argument when it comes to Milwaukee for me.  Due to lack of city sprawl and traffic, Milwaukee is ridiculously driveable.  My parents live on the very north side of Mequon and I don't know if we ever left earlier than 630, on average, for a 7PM tip off at the Bradley Center, and usually made it down, parked, and walked in before 7.  

I used to have a friend who lived on the East Side near Oakland Gyros and I could get home from there in less than 20 as well.

Farther west Waukesha County suburbs I can see it being a bit more intense tho.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 15, 2014, 10:46:01 AM
Delafield is kinda out there a ways compared to New Berlin, Brookfield etc.

western Waukesha county is having water issues and sewer/water costs really have to be included with property tax rankings IMO

friends in New Berlin etc. never like hearing me mention how low my sewer/water bills are when compared to theirs, their monthly costs are higher than my quarterly bills

Depends on where in New Berlin you are, western NB yes, eastern NB where I am with Lake Michigan water is extremely reasonable when compared to Mil County cities.  If you roll in garbage, water/sewer, and property taxes where I am compared to say Franklin it is about $1500 in my favor and maybe $1000 compared to OC.

Plus all the convenient access points to get anywhere in 30 minutes and great schools.  Pretty sweet deal.  Having said that, if we didn't plan on having kids at some point and/or need a reasonable yard for our dog I'd live in the city.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on January 15, 2014, 10:52:58 AM
Doesn't seem to affect F*ckin'. Guess when you got it, you got it.

Folks with my view on taxes are a tiny minority here in the Republic.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on January 15, 2014, 10:54:25 AM
This is spot on for a house in New Berlin.

My roughly $235k house in Madison is $5200/year in property taxes.

I would love to see a $180k house in Brookfield.  (Servant's quarters don't count.)
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on January 15, 2014, 11:03:38 AM
My roughly $235k house in Madison is $5200/year in property taxes.

I would love to see a $180k house in Brookfield.  (Servant's quarters don't count.)

This is where I love Prop 13 in California.  My taxes are roughly the same on yours but on a much higher priced home (it is what it is in California, not much choice).  Prop 13 caps the increase each year to a maximum of 2%.   People were being driven out of their homes in the 1970's because property taxes were going up so much and retired folks on fixed incomes could no longer stay in their own homes that they bought and paid for. 
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Spotcheck Billy on January 15, 2014, 11:21:48 AM
but Prop 13 has sure caused a few problems along the way


btw mu03eng I was referring to sewer and water costs in eastern NB, my sewer/water combined is roughly $100/quarter and I have co-workers near Moreland Rd that say they are paying over $200/month
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 15, 2014, 11:34:06 AM
but Prop 13 has sure caused a few problems along the way


btw mu03eng I was referring to sewer and water costs in eastern NB, my sewer/water combined is roughly $100/quarter and I have co-workers near Moreland Rd that say they are paying over $200/month

Depends on how much/long you shower  ;)
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Coleman on January 15, 2014, 11:35:47 AM
To each their own. The taxes are one thing, but a relatively small thing.  I prefer being away from the city lights, traffic congestion, crime, and poor schools that comes with a big city. I would rather be out in an area with space and forests away from the city lights.  I can still experience city culture with a 30 minute drive and then go back home.  I feel the quality of life is much better away from the city and the taxes are less.  It’s not an absolute which life style is better one way or another.


Agree that its a personal choice, but the pendulum is swinging back towards the city in terms of popularity.

Millenials are abandoning suburbs and their cars, and heading to to the city in drove. Especially in big cities like Chicago, San Francisco, and NYC.

Look at Chicago for example. Half all of those in povery in the metro area now live in the suburbs. The city and suburbs are about on parity when it comes to schools and poverty. Of course, there are still suburbs like Winnetka and Highland Park, but there are also sections of the city, such as the Gold Coast, River North, and Lincoln Park, that match them in affluence. And some of the south suburbs are every bit as bad as the south side of the city.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: augoman on January 15, 2014, 11:47:11 AM
Bleau, my daughter and fiance each sold their condos in Chicago's Gold Coast last year and moved to a suburb of Nashville (Franklin).  No state income tax, income increases, lower property taxes, great schools and state not on the verge of bankruptcy.  (and football is not much different).

My wife and I were looking at a condo in the third ward on the river as a 'pied a tierre' for the winter, or whenever we didn't feel like driving back to Oconomowoc after a game or play, but the taxes were silly.

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MerrittsMustache on January 15, 2014, 12:06:21 PM
From my perspective, you can keep the western burbs and it's larger lots and lower taxes. I'd rather pay an extra $150/month in property taxes to live in a safe, walking community with one of the best school systems in the state that's a few miles from downtown and right on the lake.

Yeah, that's right! Whitefish Bay all the way!  ;)
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 15, 2014, 12:08:08 PM
and moved to a suburb of Nashville, great schools


There are no great schools in the state of Tennessee.
I've heard of two instances where people decided "not" to move to Tennessee for a job because they found out their kids would have had to skip two grades because their kids were so far ahead.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 15, 2014, 12:09:34 PM
Your property taxes all sound cheap.  I'm paying aound $6,200 per year.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Canned Goods n Ammo on January 15, 2014, 12:14:31 PM
urban vs suburban living is a trade-off.

I've lived in both, and honestly, I find both appealing.

It is nice to be able to walk straight into your garage and vehicle and drive to (insert retailer) and purchase whatever you need. Suburban living has it's lifestyle perks. Huge garage, yard, privacy, size, lower taxes (in theory), better schools (in theory), etc. etc. I love it. It's how I grew up.

However, living in the city, it's great to park my car on Friday evening, and not have to drive it again until Monday. I can walk or easily bike to at least 30 different restaurants, bars, movie theater, bowling, local retailers, etc. If I was willing to ride a little farther on my bike (lets say 3 or 4 miles), then the options go up exponentially. Even in the winter, I can easily access enough entertainment options that I don't really HAVE to drive. My dentist is a short walk away. Same with my barber. I can even walk my dog to the vet.
 




Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: warriorchick on January 15, 2014, 12:49:18 PM
There are no great schools in the state of Tennessee.

That's quite a broad statement.  Hundreds of public schools in Tennessee and without exception, they suck?  Where do Vanderbilt professors send their kids?

Even if that were true, you could pay for an excellent private school with all the money you would save on taxes.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MerrittsMustache on January 15, 2014, 12:57:09 PM
That's quite a broad statement.  Hundreds of public schools in Tennessee and without exception, they suck?  Where do Vanderbilt professors send their kids?

Even if that were true, you could pay for an excellent private school with all the money you would save on taxes.

The top public school in Tennessee (Hume-Fogg in Nashville) was ranked #37 nationally by USN. Not too shabby.

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: CTWarrior on January 15, 2014, 01:08:48 PM
Your property taxes all sound cheap.  I'm paying aound $6,200 per year.
Your taxes sound cheap!  I pay quite a bit more than that and trust me, I am not exactly living in a mansion.  In my town, they have an ALPS (Advanced Learning) program where they pick the top 25 kids or so in the public school system after 3rd grade and put them together through 8th grade and they get a phenomenal education.  If my son hadn't gotten into that program, he'd have been off to Catholic school after 3rd grade, though.  Because beyond ALPS, despite my town's relative small size (30,000 residents) public schools are not very good, lots of bullying/fighting/child control issues.  As it was, I waited until he was in high school.  
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: warriorchick on January 15, 2014, 01:15:52 PM
One thing I noticed when I worked in downtown Milwaukee in the mid-to-late 80's was the almost complete lack of African-American business professionals.  It was rare to see a black person in a suit. The Milwaukee branch of the Big 4 accounting firm that I worked for was close to 100% white, right down to the file clerks.  It wasn't that way at similar offices in Boston or Chicago.  

While I love Milwaukee, as a community it has failed to help its working-class residents transition to the service-based economy.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 15, 2014, 04:18:47 PM
The top public school in Tennessee (Hume-Fogg in Nashville) was ranked #37 nationally by USN. Not too shabby.


I think there have been several discussions on USN college rankings and the merits of the criteria.

I investigated twice if there was any payback moving from Connecticut to Florida.  (Weather related only and I'd be forfeiting a ton of money but that's a different story.)  I was looking at USN stats and I found that one of their big stats that inflates school system's score is "% of kids taking AP classes."  It was like 4 times higher than any Connecticut school district.  Yet the college attendance rate was half the amount and the average SAT scores were lower, etc.  Then I found out why - subject matter.  Not taken into account by USN.  The Senior AP classes in Florida were the average required curriculum for Freshman year in Connecticut public high schools.  And Tennessee schools are supposed to be even worse than Florida. 
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 15, 2014, 04:19:31 PM
That's quite a broad statement.  Hundreds of public schools in Tennessee and without exception, they suck?  Where do Vanderbilt professors send their kids?

Even if that were true, you could pay for an excellent private school with all the money you would save on taxes.

Private school I would guess.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on January 15, 2014, 04:21:26 PM
but Prop 13 has sure caused a few problems along the way

Yup, it has prevented a lot of politicians from not having money to spend on pet projects, for which they do anyway and put state billions in debt.

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: forgetful on January 15, 2014, 04:34:21 PM
I think there have been several discussions on USN college rankings and the merits of the criteria.

I investigated twice if there was any payback moving from Connecticut to Florida.  (Weather related only and I'd be forfeiting a ton of money but that's a different story.)  I was looking at USN stats and I found that one of their big stats that inflates school system's score is "% of kids taking AP classes."  It was like 4 times higher than any Connecticut school district.  Yet the college attendance rate was half the amount and the average SAT scores were lower, etc.  Then I found out why - subject matter.  Not taken into account by USN.  The Senior AP classes in Florida were the average required curriculum for Freshman year in Connecticut public high schools.  And Tennessee schools are supposed to be even worse than Florida. 

This is a big sham to the school rankings.  There are several historically highly rated schools that pay the students to take AP classes and essentially guarantee a good grade.  They even pay the teacher additional money for each student they recruit to take those AP courses.

They will also pay the students additional money to take the AP exam and pay for the AP exam itself. 

Also, these historically high ranking high schools are not open to all students, they have to test into them.  The testing program is biased, where admins sell the tests to top tutors, who are then hired by wealthy parents to tutor their kids to ensure they get into the special schools.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on January 15, 2014, 04:53:12 PM
The top public school in Tennessee (Hume-Fogg in Nashville) was ranked #37 nationally by USN. Not too shabby.



Two of the top 27 HS's are within 4 miles of my house....a few years ago they were both ranked in the top 10.  I have no idea how you rank high schools.  My son tried to get into one of them as a 7th grader (it's a 7th through 12th - Oxford Academy).  Straight A student, off the charts on the public testing scores....didn't get in.  Even though it is public, they can decline admissions and the acceptance rate is very low.

Minority enrollment 88%.  Almost all Asian kids.  Extremely competitive. 

http://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/california/districts/anaheim-union-high/oxford-academy-1748
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: warriorchick on January 15, 2014, 05:03:08 PM
Two of the top 27 HS's are within 4 miles of my house....a few years ago they were both ranked in the top 10.  I have no idea how you rank high schools.  My son tried to get into one of them as a 7th grader (it's a 7th through 12th - Oxford Academy).  Straight A student, off the charts on the public testing scores....didn't get in.  Even though it is public, they can decline admissions and the acceptance rate is very low.

Minority enrollment 88%.  Almost all Asian kids.  Extremely competitive. 

http://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/california/districts/anaheim-union-high/oxford-academy-1748


The USN high school rankings are more full of crap than their college rankings.  My kid's high school has been crowing that they made it into the top tier of those rankings.  It's only because that is where my school district's gifted program is housed.  The rest of the student body consists of what are referred to as "at-risk" students, and to my knowledge, they don't perform any better than your average group of at-risk students.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 15, 2014, 05:49:13 PM
I think there have been several discussions on USN college rankings and the merits of the criteria.

I investigated twice if there was any payback moving from Connecticut to Florida.  (Weather related only and I'd be forfeiting a ton of money but that's a different story.)  I was looking at USN stats and I found that one of their big stats that inflates school system's score is "% of kids taking AP classes."  It was like 4 times higher than any Connecticut school district.  Yet the college attendance rate was half the amount and the average SAT scores were lower, etc.  Then I found out why - subject matter.  Not taken into account by USN.  The Senior AP classes in Florida were the average required curriculum for Freshman year in Connecticut public high schools.  And Tennessee schools are supposed to be even worse than Florida. 

As someone who spent time in Florida schools especially Tampa, I can tell you DON'T DO IT.  Worst experience of my life.  My brother was in first grade when we moved there from Ohio, they put him in a corner and let him read all he wanted because he was so far ahead.  We left two years later and he was a grade behind the other 3rd graders in Illinois.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on January 15, 2014, 05:56:52 PM

The USN high school rankings are more full of crap than their college rankings.  My kid's high school has been crowing that they made it into the top tier of those rankings.  It's only because that is where my school district's gifted program is housed.  The rest of the student body consists of what are referred to as "at-risk" students, and to my knowledge, they don't perform any better than your average group of at-risk students.

I have no doubt.  I don't know how you could reasonable rank all those schools to begin with.  I know the one school I referenced close to our house is extremely good and puts kids in fantastic colleges, but the school he is at puts kids in the same colleges.  The difference is that the percentage of kids doing so is higher in the former rather than the latter.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: tower912 on January 15, 2014, 06:00:11 PM
I chose a less expensive house in the city that employs me and then opted to spend the money for Catholic Schools.   
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: brandx on January 15, 2014, 06:14:13 PM
As someone who spent time in Florida schools especially Tampa, I can tell you DON'T DO IT.  Worst experience of my life.  My brother was in first grade when we moved there from Ohio, they put him in a corner and let him read all he wanted because he was so far ahead.  We left two years later and he was a grade behind the other 3rd graders in Illinois.

I think that is generally true in most Southern states. But their property taxes are lower. It's all a trade-off and very politically motivated.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 15, 2014, 06:31:42 PM
Bleau, my daughter and fiance each sold their condos in Chicago's Gold Coast last year and moved to a suburb of Nashville (Franklin).  No state income tax, income increases, lower property taxes, great schools and state not on the verge of bankruptcy.  (and football is not much different).

My wife and I were looking at a condo in the third ward on the river as a 'pied a tierre' for the winter, or whenever we didn't feel like driving back to Oconomowoc after a game or play, but the taxes were silly.



Does your wife know about your fiancé?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on January 15, 2014, 06:55:16 PM
I chose a less expensive house in the city that employs me and then opted to spend the money for Catholic Schools.   

Are you in Detroit?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: tower912 on January 15, 2014, 06:59:26 PM
No.   
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 15, 2014, 07:03:19 PM
Almost all Asian kids.  Extremely competitive


Their football team?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: chapman on January 15, 2014, 07:14:35 PM
As someone who spent time in Florida schools especially Tampa, I can tell you DON'T DO IT.  Worst experience of my life.  My brother was in first grade when we moved there from Ohio, they put him in a corner and let him read all he wanted because he was so far ahead.  We left two years later and he was a grade behind the other 3rd graders in Illinois.

Have a few co-workers in the northeast who want to move to Florida - they could pay for a house in less than ten years with their tax savings alone.  That's the very reason they aren't already there; they will not leave until the kids are done with school first.   
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 15, 2014, 08:38:30 PM

ZFB: "Are you in Detroit?"

912: "No."   

International Man of Mystery.

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: DegenerateDish on January 15, 2014, 09:29:22 PM
I live in Northwest Chicago burbs (Kane), modest townhouse, $5200 in property taxes yearly, it's crazy.

For a lot of reasons, I hate living in Illinois.

I have no clue how one rates schools. Chicago Public Schools, from what I hear, try to prepare kids mainly to take standardized tests, to increase those scores, in spite of core curriculm. No idea if this is true.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on January 15, 2014, 11:13:23 PM
No.   

Good.   ;D
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: brandx on January 16, 2014, 12:17:36 AM
I live in Northwest Chicago burbs (Kane), modest townhouse, $5200 in property taxes yearly, it's crazy.

For a lot of reasons, I hate living in Illinois.

I have no clue how one rates schools. Chicago Public Schools, from what I hear, try to prepare kids mainly to take standardized tests, to increase those scores, in spite of core curriculm. No idea if this is true.

I would guess it's just as true there as in other places.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 16, 2014, 04:05:09 AM
I would guess it's just as true there as in other places.

It is. The fallacy of standardized tests.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 16, 2014, 06:48:30 AM
Your property taxes all sound cheap.  I'm paying aound $6,200 per year.

$8,800

Get on my level son.  :(
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: muwarrior69 on January 16, 2014, 07:45:27 AM
You guys make me cry! My taxes in New Jersey are 14000; if you live in Princeton Borough or West Windsor just two communities adjacent to mine you could pay upward of 20000. I believe the median property tax in New Jersey is around 7500. In Trenton, where the school system is subsidized by the state were paying around 11000 per student where only 30-40% graduate. The average car insurance for 2 cars will run you about 1500. Chris Cristie along with the Democrats in the assembly capped the property tax increases to 2% two years ago, but exempted pension and medical insurance, two of the 3 prime drivers that increase your taxes, from the cap. Go figure. I could go on about the cost of living in my state but I'm getting a headache. 
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: chapman on January 16, 2014, 08:07:24 AM
You guys make me cry! My taxes in New Jersey are 14000; if you live in Princeton Borough or West Windsor just two communities adjacent to mine you could pay upward of 20000. I believe the median property tax in New Jersey is around 7500.

You've nailed the biggest offending state from my "few co-workers in the northeast" referenced above  ;)
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: warriorchick on January 16, 2014, 08:17:30 AM
You guys make me cry! My taxes in New Jersey are 14000; if you live in Princeton Borough or West Windsor just two communities adjacent to mine you could pay upward of 20000. I believe the median property tax in New Jersey is around 7500. In Trenton, where the school system is subsidized by the state were paying around 11000 per student where only 30-40% graduate. The average car insurance for 2 cars will run you about 1500. Chris Cristie along with the Democrats in the assembly capped the property tax increases to 2% two years ago, but exempted pension and medical insurance, two of the 3 prime drivers that increase your taxes, from the cap. Go figure. I could go on about the cost of living in my state but I'm getting a headache. 

It's simply the premium you pay for the privilege of living in New Jersey.   ;D
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Spotcheck Billy on January 16, 2014, 08:44:20 AM
that east coast bias doesn't come free you know
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: PBRme on January 16, 2014, 09:02:40 AM
But is that because of a difference in valuations?  For instance, if I owned a house in Milwaukee...or the same exact house in New Berlin, I know that the *rate* would be higher in Milwaukee.  But would the actual $$$ be higher as well?

Milwaukee taxes are skewed by MATC at least when I lived in Wauwatosa.  MATC was over a quarter of the tax bill.

Now just west of 124th and WCTC is far less.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu_hilltopper on January 16, 2014, 09:08:04 AM
In the end .. it doesn't matter that you have high or low property taxes.  It's your total tax burden that matters.

New Jersey has high property taxes?  Well, no wonder.  They get 49% of their entire tax revenue from property taxes .. the US average is 32%.  Illinois is at 44%.  Wisconsin is at 39%.

Meanwhile NJ, IL and WI are low sales-tax states, and gets only 15% of its taxes from Sales tax .. IL is at 16%  .. WI is at 17 .. the US averages 22%.

State   Property   Sales   Income   Corporate Other Taxes (a)
Minn.   30.7%   18.6%   26.5%   3.0%   21.2%
Calif.   31.2%   23.1%   26.4%   5.3%   14.0%
*US   34.8%   22.4%   20.5%   3.4%   18.9%
Wis.   39.5%   17.4%   23.7%   3.5%   15.9%
Mich.   40.3%   25.9%   16.4%   1.9%   15.4%
Ill.   43.6%   15.9%   15.8%   2.5%   22.1%
N.J.   48.4%   15.5%   20.2%   4.0%   11.9%



What you need to talk about is total State/Local tax burden.   Looks like NJ wins (loses) that battle.  IL is the cheapest of these states..

State   Revenue Per Capita   Rank
Ill.   $7,522   31
Mich.   $7,731   29
Wis.   $8,013   23
*US.   $8,122   –
Minn.   $8,750   14
Calif.   $8,785   13
N.J.   $9,485   7

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu_hilltopper on January 16, 2014, 09:12:11 AM
Milwaukee taxes are skewed by MATC at least when I lived in Wauwatosa.  MATC was over a quarter of the tax bill.

Now just west of 124th and WCTC is far less.

While each municipality's property tax bill's %ages fluctuate, MATC is likely not a quarter of anyone's tax bill.  Looking at mine (north shore) .. MATC's share is 8%. 

The %ages for most property tax bills average out to 40-50% for schools, 20-30% for the municipality, 5-10 for MMSD, 5-10 for MATC, 15-20 for MKE County, and 1-2% for the State.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: 4everwarriors on January 16, 2014, 09:18:52 AM
It's still a bf'in' no matter how ya slice it.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: tower912 on January 16, 2014, 10:31:05 AM
Good.   ;D

Thanks.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 16, 2014, 11:58:24 AM
You guys make me cry! My taxes in New Jersey are 14000; if you live in Princeton Borough or West Windsor just two communities adjacent to mine you could pay upward of 20000. I believe the median property tax in New Jersey is around 7500. In Trenton, where the school system is subsidized by the state were paying around 11000 per student where only 30-40% graduate. The average car insurance for 2 cars will run you about 1500. Chris Cristie along with the Democrats in the assembly capped the property tax increases to 2% two years ago, but exempted pension and medical insurance, two of the 3 prime drivers that increase your taxes, from the cap. Go figure. I could go on about the cost of living in my state but I'm getting a headache. 

My cousin lives in New Jersey somewhere near Rutgers and I recall him telling me his property taxes were like $4K more than mine on a house the same size as mine except with a postage stamp size lot.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 16, 2014, 12:00:01 PM
As someone who spent time in Florida schools especially Tampa, I can tell you DON'T DO IT.  Worst experience of my life.  My brother was in first grade when we moved there from Ohio, they put him in a corner and let him read all he wanted because he was so far ahead.  We left two years later and he was a grade behind the other 3rd graders in Illinois.

Don't worry we're not due to the school thing.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 16, 2014, 02:58:32 PM
Have a few co-workers in the northeast who want to move to Florida - they could pay for a house in less than ten years with their tax savings alone.  That's the very reason they aren't already there; they will not leave until the kids are done with school first.   

FWIW I found that:
1) No FL state income tax meant nothing because I'd have to take a pay cut (based on job site listings) about equal to amount I pay in CT income tax.  A wash although I'd have to pay more Federal Tax as I'd lose that deduction. 
2) Mortgage would be a big savings of $500-$700 per month for a newer same sized house + a pool.  Big+ FL
3) Property taxes were all over the place and ranged $500 - $2,500 less however most houses had a HOA fee of $75 to $250 per month which other than condos is pretty unheard of in New England so that turned out to be a wash. 
4) Public schools were no good so I'd have to go private which would add $5,000 to $15,000 per kid negating that mortgage savings and actually significantly increasing payout.  Big + CT
5) I wouldn't have to drop a bunch any money on home heating oil in the winter which is pricy but I assumed I'd have to spend more to run the AC which is a electricity hog more than the 3 months I run now.  Probably a savings but assumed a wash.   
6)  No blizzards that dump 3 feet snow in FL like I saw in Feb. 2012.    Lived through a Hurricane in Sept 2011 and again in Oct 2012.  Tampa/St. Pete's hasn't been hit by one since the 1920s.
7) Warmth.  Longer seasonal duration to visit the beach use the pool and exercise outside.  The negative is that winter kills bugs in CT.
8)  My wife had the big problem.  As a teacher she would have to take a 60% to 65% pay cut as there is simply no making that up.  Period.

I just came to the conclusion that everything was relative.  Take home pay vs. expenses & taxes.  6 of one, half dozen of another.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: BrewCity83 on January 16, 2014, 04:53:28 PM
FWIW I found that:
6)  No blizzards that dump 3 feet snow in FL like I saw in Feb. 2012.    Lived through a Hurricane in Sept 2011 and again in Oct 2012.  Tampa/St. Pete's hasn't been hit by one since the 1920s.

Hurricane Charley hit that area in 2004.  When comparing costs, don't forget to check out windstorm and flood insurance; if you're on or near the coast the lenders may require it and the costs can be shockingly high.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 16, 2014, 05:44:04 PM
FWIW I found that:
1) No FL state income tax meant nothing because I'd have to take a pay cut (based on job site listings) about equal to amount I pay in CT income tax.  A wash although I'd have to pay more Federal Tax as I'd lose that deduction. 
2) Mortgage would be a big savings of $500-$700 per month for a newer same sized house + a pool.  Big+ FL
3) Property taxes were all over the place and ranged $500 - $2,500 less however most houses had a HOA fee of $75 to $250 per month which other than condos is pretty unheard of in New England so that turned out to be a wash. 
4) Public schools were no good so I'd have to go private which would add $5,000 to $15,000 per kid negating that mortgage savings and actually significantly increasing payout.  Big + CT
5) I wouldn't have to drop a bunch any money on home heating oil in the winter which is pricy but I assumed I'd have to spend more to run the AC which is a electricity hog more than the 3 months I run now.  Probably a savings but assumed a wash.   
6)  No blizzards that dump 3 feet snow in FL like I saw in Feb. 2012.    Lived through a Hurricane in Sept 2011 and again in Oct 2012.  Tampa/St. Pete's hasn't been hit by one since the 1920s.
7) Warmth.  Longer seasonal duration to visit the beach use the pool and exercise outside.  The negative is that winter kills bugs in CT.
8)  My wife had the big problem.  As a teacher she would have to take a 60% to 65% pay cut as there is simply no making that up.  Period.

I just came to the conclusion that everything was relative.  Take home pay vs. expenses & taxes.  6 of one, half dozen of another.



The proudest of all American traditions. Loading up the Conestoga and heading out.

"Florida shore is purty, Pa!"

(https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSDOJMVSuQzQMqjmSXG3Iowr55rKeMzwCh177Cz77I9z3u9Xljm9A)
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Goose on January 16, 2014, 08:24:55 PM
Been busy at work and just sat down and think this is interesting thread. Well done, Keefe on bringing this one up. When all said and done I believe Milwaukee's problem starts with school system. The second biggest issue to hit Milwaukee was the loss of manufacturing and not realizing it was happening or having a plan in place. My family lost a manufacturing business to China well before China became what it is today and honestly city officials were more interested in building Miller Park to realize an industry that was important to the city was dying.

Our family business was small part of that industry but the group as a whole was a billion dollar biz that employed thousands, mainly minority workers. The city knew the big players in our biz if they needed money but when things got tough they forgot a group of employers that made lives better for a lot of families.

It is going to take a very strong group of leaders to change the trend in the city and hope they are out there. Third Ward is great spot but really not creating the jobs needed. Milwaukee has to fight for everything and lower their pants to get better paying jobs in the area.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 16, 2014, 10:44:39 PM
Been busy at work and just sat down and think this is interesting thread. Well done, Keefe on bringing this one up. When all said and done I believe Milwaukee's problem starts with school system. The second biggest issue to hit Milwaukee was the loss of manufacturing and not realizing it was happening or having a plan in place. My family lost a manufacturing business to China well before China became what it is today and honestly city officials were more interested in building Miller Park to realize an industry that was important to the city was dying.

Our family business was small part of that industry but the group as a whole was a billion dollar biz that employed thousands, mainly minority workers. The city knew the big players in our biz if they needed money but when things got tough they forgot a group of employers that made lives better for a lot of families.

It is going to take a very strong group of leaders to change the trend in the city and hope they are out there. Third Ward is great spot but really not creating the jobs needed. Milwaukee has to fight for everything and lower their pants to get better paying jobs in the area.

A thriving Milwaukee is imperative for the long term future of Marquette. I know Milwaukee has hemorrhaged well-paying manufacturing jobs since I was at MU but has done little to replace them. I know that this is a common theme throughout the Rust Belt but I always viewed Milwaukee/WI as being progressive, forward thinking for reasons of tradition, culture, and education. Damn shame they lacked the political will or vision to address fundamental shifts in global economic realities.

I think you are correct in saying that the public education system has played a role in the sharp decline in Milwaukee's middle class. I don't want to make this about political affiliation but our public school systems have not been keeping America competitive; there is a reason Bellevue looks more like Shanghai or Mumbai than it does the old Scandinavian Seattle. What is happening here is that fourth-generation Norwegian-American kids are getting jobs as baristas while Rajiv and Ho Kee are being hired as coders and developers.

From a personal experience perspective, we have been invited to participate in an EU program that supports environmental technologies to set up shop in the north of England for the sake of creating economic, academic opportunity and environmental progress. A key criteria from our perspective is that the EU and UK will sponsor dedicated technical training for both technicians and engineers. Not only does this benefit the local intellectual skill base but encourages entrepreneurship, capital investment, and corporate site planning. The US tends not to have such innovative solutions for incubating technology and fostering economic advancement.

Milwaukee was once a leading center of excellence in economic development but seems to have lost that edge. I don't want to make this about tax policy because a more comprehensive slate of government-sponsored incentives are needed to foster economic advancement. Clearly, education is a fundamental enabler that may be missing in the Milwaukee construct. Milwaukee would do well to look at other templates if it wishes to become competitive in a challenging global market. 
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: 77ncaachamps on January 17, 2014, 12:45:54 AM
If your child can attend charter schools (no school boundaries) and private schools (vouchers), then why is there so much stock placed in the school system and home prices?

In other words...it's more than just the schools.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: The Lens on January 17, 2014, 08:30:33 AM
If your child can attend charter schools (no school boundaries) and private schools (vouchers), then why is there so much stock placed in the school system and home prices?

In other words...it's more than just the schools.

Re-sale value.  My kids will probably go to MUHS & DSHA and they go catholic grade schools but I choose to live in Whitefish Bay because I like the added value that a school system like WFB provides.  And if my wife or I ever have something happen where MUHS / DS becomes unmanageable, I have a fantastic fall back.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Canned Goods n Ammo on January 17, 2014, 09:11:51 AM
A thriving Milwaukee is imperative for the long term future of Marquette. I know Milwaukee has hemorrhaged well-paying manufacturing jobs since I was at MU but has done little to replace them. I know that this is a common theme throughout the Rust Belt but I always viewed Milwaukee/WI as being progressive, forward thinking for reasons of tradition, culture, and education. Damn shame they lacked the political will or vision to address fundamental shifts in global economic realities.

I think you are correct in saying that the public education system has played a role in the sharp decline in Milwaukee's middle class. I don't want to make this about political affiliation but our public school systems have not been keeping America competitive; there is a reason Bellevue looks more like Shanghai or Mumbai than it does the old Scandinavian Seattle. What is happening here is that fourth-generation Norwegian-American kids are getting jobs as baristas while Rajiv and Ho Kee are being hired as coders and developers.

From a personal experience perspective, we have been invited to participate in an EU program that supports environmental technologies to set up shop in the north of England for the sake of creating economic, academic opportunity and environmental progress. A key criteria from our perspective is that the EU and UK will sponsor dedicated technical training for both technicians and engineers. Not only does this benefit the local intellectual skill base but encourages entrepreneurship, capital investment, and corporate site planning. The US tends not to have such innovative solutions for incubating technology and fostering economic advancement.

Milwaukee was once a leading center of excellence in economic development but seems to have lost that edge. I don't want to make this about tax policy because a more comprehensive slate of government-sponsored incentives are needed to foster economic advancement. Clearly, education is a fundamental enabler that may be missing in the Milwaukee construct. Milwaukee would do well to look at other templates if it wishes to become competitive in a challenging global market. 

This isn't unique to Milwaukee.

America, for the most part, is transitioning from world production superpower, where it produced raw materials, finished goods, and food for the entire world, to something different (consumer or service based economy, or whatever you want to call it).

America used to produce and sell products, now it imports and sells products and or sells "ideas". The corporations are still making money, but the labor force has been outsourced. It's the reality of the global economy. China is a huge producer right now. In 20 years, you might see Africa producing products (if they can get their infrastructure and labor force in place).
 
I don't necessarily think any of this is "bad", but the average American cannot count of a decent 40hr per week job just because they have a strong back and a HS degree. This isn't 1955.

I think technical training is important and should have a greater emphasis with young kids. Maybe even a hybrid work/high school program where it takes 6 or even 8 years to get through "high school", but you are working and developing a technical skill set and some small business acumen the entire time. 

That type of kid could continue education at the college level, or would already have a very marketable skill set for any industry trade of their choosing.

Also, not to get too weird, but I think we might see a shift with the millennial generation where "living efficiently" will be valued over "consumption". That's just a personal opinion and observation.

"A man is rich in proportion to the number of things which he can afford to let alone." - Walden
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: augoman on January 17, 2014, 09:48:08 AM
I agree with Lens 'school district effects resale'- Williamson county is highly sought after in Nashville area for that reason.

Keefe- meant to say "her fiancé", not to imply mine. They are now married.  No, my wife is suspicious but doesn't know.

There is little substitute for a Catholic education, although some of the other charter schools seem to be doing a good job.

I wonder why Milwaukee with all the problems it has keeps re-electing the same group of politicians.  Perhaps a new broom would sweep clean as they say.  Same prob with the school system-haven't had good leadership since they ran Fuller off. 
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MUfan12 on January 17, 2014, 09:56:32 AM
Just wait until the city passes the living wage requirement. It will be even more of a business killer.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 17, 2014, 10:13:21 AM
This isn't unique to Milwaukee.

America, for the most part, is transitioning from world production superpower, where it produced raw materials, finished goods, and food for the entire world, to something different (consumer or service based economy, or whatever you want to call it).

America used to produce and sell products, now it imports and sells products and or sells "ideas". The corporations are still making money, but the labor force has been outsourced. It's the reality of the global economy. China is a huge producer right now. In 20 years, you might see Africa producing products (if they can get their infrastructure and labor force in place).
 
I don't necessarily think any of this is "bad", but the average American cannot count of a decent 40hr per week job just because they have a strong back and a HS degree. This isn't 1955.

I think technical training is important and should have a greater emphasis with young kids. Maybe even a hybrid work/high school program where it takes 6 or even 8 years to get through "high school", but you are working and developing a technical skill set and some small business acumen the entire time. 

That type of kid could continue education at the college level, or would already have a very marketable skill set for any industry trade of their choosing.

Also, not to get too weird, but I think we might see a shift with the millennial generation where "living efficiently" will be valued over "consumption". That's just a personal opinion and observation.

"A man is rich in proportion to the number of things which he can afford to let alone." - Walden


I agree with some of your solution's Ammo, but I disagree with your assessment of manufacturing jobs and I also think the "outsourcing" of jobs is overblown, significant, but overblown.  A significant portion of the job loss is two fold, shifting of jobs to other activites(i.e enabling manufacturing instead of doing the manufacturing) and increasing efficiency which requires fewer jobs.

See this 60 minutes clip
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-robots-hurting-job-growth-08-09-2013/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-robots-hurting-job-growth-08-09-2013/)

As technology improves, jobs are eliminated and they aren't coming back.  However, it also creates new jobs.  Five years ago I would have completely agreed with the Africa assessment however in the next 10 years(at least) it will take them to get their feces co-located I believe manufacturing will start moving back to the US.  There will not be humans doing the manufacturing because you can accomplish near the Chinese labor rate in the US with advances in automation in the US.  The US once again becomes the competitive leader because the logistics once again become the cost driver and local sourcing will always trump foreign sourcing for the US.

As an example the delta in Chinese sourced product and US sourced product use to be around 100x but the logistics cost was 50x for China as US(to the US market) - circa 2005.  Logistics costs are down some, 30x, but production cost delta is also down, now about 60x.  It is slowly becoming less attractive to manufacture off-shore.  Africa would have roughly the same labor rate(if stability was a non-factor) as China, but logistics costs would be about 15x of US sourced.  Very attractive...but no stability and it's going to take a long time to get it there.  So with that, if you can source a China labor rate in the US via automation and robotics, that is somewhat of a holy grail.

Here's another example, having people able to use and configure this sort of technology will be critical

http://www.jsonline.com/business/rockwell-leading-way-in-next-industrial-revolution-b99174535z1-238731421.html (http://www.jsonline.com/business/rockwell-leading-way-in-next-industrial-revolution-b99174535z1-238731421.html)

So what does this have to do with jobs?  The city of Milwaukee has all the tools and resources it needs to be a great manufacturing city again, but they have to have the vision.  Manufacturing jobs are not going to come in the form of actually building product, but in enabling, coordinating, setting up, and managing the systems that will do the actual manufacturing.  This does not require a 4 year degree to do.  Heck, MATC could set-up a 1 or 2 year program that would put out workers much more trained than the ones we're limping along with now.  Look at Amazon in Kenosha, location is everything in the new local sourcing economy that's coming.  Companies could manufacture in SE Wisconsin and service a major segment of the American populace with a two day lead time.

To your point, high schools should be recognizing this as well and tailoring their curriculum to allow blue collar and white collar paths.

One of my biggest pet peeves and issues with our current society is the endless mantra of go to college.  Going to college is not for everyone nor is it required for the new economy.  Maybe its semantical but we should be focusing on post high school degrees or education.  Not making this political because both sides do it, but while I was working out yesterday I saw the President talking about college and making it affordable.  That's great, college costs are run amok, but the blurb that caught my attention(sound was off so I don't have context) was the statement that "College is still the surest way to economic mobility and success." or something to that effect.  I fundamentally disagree with this statement and would actually argue in some instances people, by going to college, have put themselves at a disadvantage.

What does this have to do with MPS?  With the money MPS spends they could radically alter the curriculum to allow a focus on technical but non-college career paths that would allow students to become success and build a worker base for future employers and build the success of the community as whole.  Again someone has to have the vision at the city, state, and federal level and quite frankly no one does and it's very disheartening.

<rant off>
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: WellsstreetWanderer on January 17, 2014, 10:47:13 AM
Not my area of expertise but a young man who virtually grew up at my house for years did business in China and is now COO/ CFO of a US company told me that skilled workers are more efficient here while low skilled jobs will continue to remain in China and elsewhere. He brought back complex manufacturing to the US: Portland, a curiously business friendly city( but weird) and surprisingly, to me, just built a plant in N.Y. State.
Just my 1 1/2 cents worth
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Goose on January 17, 2014, 11:44:01 AM
Elephant

I have worked in China most of my adult life and agree to some degree. Workers in China are becoming far more skilled in the past decade and they will continue to improve. Much of the return to US manufacturing from China stems from high overhead costs in doing business in China IMO. Many US companies have mismanaged China operations and have decided they need to improve their efficiencies in China or return home.

I believe China has both pro's and con's to doing business there, but I do know that manufacturing opportunities are as great today as 10 years in China. Keefe has a great wealth of knowledge on China and Asia as a whole and based off conversations we have had believes China has bright future as well.

China is a great tool for US companies that run their Asian business effectively. Granted I make a living in China, but with or without my paycheck indirectly coming from China I believe the opportunity for US companies to make a score there are very high.

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 17, 2014, 01:22:18 PM
Just wait until the city passes the living wage requirement. It will be even more of a business killer.

Seems to be working just fine here in Madison.  We are required to, and were already providing close to the living wage; about 1/3 of our employees got small raises.  Too bad for our competitors who weren't paying as much.

Additionally, that extra money in the workers pocket is money that they can use to spend on bills, goods, and services.  Less people using the entitlement programs (which I know you hate).
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Canned Goods n Ammo on January 17, 2014, 02:08:36 PM
I agree with some of your solution's Ammo, but I disagree with your assessment of manufacturing jobs and I also think the "outsourcing" of jobs is overblown, significant, but overblown.  A significant portion of the job loss is two fold, shifting of jobs to other activites(i.e enabling manufacturing instead of doing the manufacturing) and increasing efficiency which requires fewer jobs.

See this 60 minutes clip
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-robots-hurting-job-growth-08-09-2013/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-robots-hurting-job-growth-08-09-2013/)

As technology improves, jobs are eliminated and they aren't coming back.  However, it also creates new jobs.  Five years ago I would have completely agreed with the Africa assessment however in the next 10 years(at least) it will take them to get their feces co-located I believe manufacturing will start moving back to the US.  There will not be humans doing the manufacturing because you can accomplish near the Chinese labor rate in the US with advances in automation in the US.  The US once again becomes the competitive leader because the logistics once again become the cost driver and local sourcing will always trump foreign sourcing for the US.

As an example the delta in Chinese sourced product and US sourced product use to be around 100x but the logistics cost was 50x for China as US(to the US market) - circa 2005.  Logistics costs are down some, 30x, but production cost delta is also down, now about 60x.  It is slowly becoming less attractive to manufacture off-shore.  Africa would have roughly the same labor rate(if stability was a non-factor) as China, but logistics costs would be about 15x of US sourced.  Very attractive...but no stability and it's going to take a long time to get it there.  So with that, if you can source a China labor rate in the US via automation and robotics, that is somewhat of a holy grail.

Here's another example, having people able to use and configure this sort of technology will be critical

http://www.jsonline.com/business/rockwell-leading-way-in-next-industrial-revolution-b99174535z1-238731421.html (http://www.jsonline.com/business/rockwell-leading-way-in-next-industrial-revolution-b99174535z1-238731421.html)

So what does this have to do with jobs?  The city of Milwaukee has all the tools and resources it needs to be a great manufacturing city again, but they have to have the vision.  Manufacturing jobs are not going to come in the form of actually building product, but in enabling, coordinating, setting up, and managing the systems that will do the actual manufacturing.  This does not require a 4 year degree to do.  Heck, MATC could set-up a 1 or 2 year program that would put out workers much more trained than the ones we're limping along with now.  Look at Amazon in Kenosha, location is everything in the new local sourcing economy that's coming.  Companies could manufacture in SE Wisconsin and service a major segment of the American populace with a two day lead time.

To your point, high schools should be recognizing this as well and tailoring their curriculum to allow blue collar and white collar paths.

One of my biggest pet peeves and issues with our current society is the endless mantra of go to college.  Going to college is not for everyone nor is it required for the new economy.  Maybe its semantical but we should be focusing on post high school degrees or education.  Not making this political because both sides do it, but while I was working out yesterday I saw the President talking about college and making it affordable.  That's great, college costs are run amok, but the blurb that caught my attention(sound was off so I don't have context) was the statement that "College is still the surest way to economic mobility and success." or something to that effect.  I fundamentally disagree with this statement and would actually argue in some instances people, by going to college, have put themselves at a disadvantage.

What does this have to do with MPS?  With the money MPS spends they could radically alter the curriculum to allow a focus on technical but non-college career paths that would allow students to become success and build a worker base for future employers and build the success of the community as whole.  Again someone has to have the vision at the city, state, and federal level and quite frankly no one does and it's very disheartening.

<rant off>


Just to clarify, I'm not using "outsourcing" in the first-shaking "THEY TOOK OUR JOBS!" sort of way.

But, factually, a lot of products that used to be manufactured in the US are now made elsewhere. Visit any major retailer and you'll see it. In 1950, if you went to a store, most things were made locally.

It's just part of the global economy.

The pendulum could certainly swing back to the US (or possibly Mexico) at some point. I know Africa is currently building infrastructure, but maybe that's more like 20-30yrs away.

The US still has a ridiculous amount of natural resources, so it's still a good place to manufacture, but companies have to figure out how to keep the costs down. Labor cost has been a big hurdle the past 30 years.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Spotcheck Billy on January 17, 2014, 02:49:19 PM
3D printing to reduce labor/manufacturig costs in the US?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: brandx on January 17, 2014, 02:58:53 PM
Just wait until the city passes the living wage requirement. It will be even more of a business killer.

More money in people's pockets is always bad for business :o

Every dollar extra that people on minimum wage get is one more dollar driving the economy. It's not money they sit on.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Chicago_inferiority_complexes on January 17, 2014, 02:59:28 PM
Too bad for our competitors who weren't paying as much.

The liberal closes in on the true purpose of regulation such as a minimum wage law: the elimination of competition in the market.

How will the taxes for your welfare programs do if no one has jobs?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 17, 2014, 03:19:48 PM
The liberal closes in on the true purpose of regulation such as a minimum wage law: the elimination of competition in the market.

How will the taxes for your welfare programs do if no one has jobs?

We could easily pay our employees what our competitors do, I don't see your point.  We are the only company in Madison that offers 401k, holiday pay, vacation pay, and we pay our employees better.  Prior to the first of the year, we also offered healthcare insurance (no other competitor does, and we only stopped because the portion our employees contributed was more than they would be paying on the healthcare.gov marketplace).  We get the best employees to work for us, and ours metrics with the city and county are the best of any company (at least five years running).  On top of that we are extremely profitable, and are hiring within the next year.  

Get your head out of your political idealist ass and don't talk about what you don't understand.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Lennys Tap on January 17, 2014, 03:21:21 PM
More money in people's pockets is always bad for business :o

Every dollar extra that people on minimum wage get is one more dollar driving the economy. It's not money they sit on.

Then just raise the minimum wage to $500/hr - we'll all be rich!
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Chicago_inferiority_complexes on January 17, 2014, 03:24:18 PM
We could easily pay our employees what our competitors do, I don't see your point.  We are the only company in Madison that offers 401k, holiday pay, vacation pay, and we pay our employees better.  Prior to the first of the year, we also offered healthcare insurance (no other competitor does, and we only stopped because the portion our employees contributed was more than they would be paying on the healthcare.gov marketplace).  We get the best employees to work for us, and ours metrics with the city and county are the best of any company (at least five years running).  On top of that we are extremely profitable, and are hiring within the next year.  

Get your head out of your political idealist ass and don't talk about what you don't understand.

Predictable response. Why should you be allowed to target your competition for destruction through regulation rather than providing a better product? Sounds like someone is a tad insecure about his business.

Or maybe you're talking out of your ass and don't work for a real business at all.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: brandx on January 17, 2014, 03:25:38 PM
Then just raise the minimum wage to $500/hr - we'll all be rich!

I think Chicos hacked your account!!
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: tower912 on January 17, 2014, 03:28:40 PM
Predictable response. Why should you be allowed to target your competition for destruction through regulation rather than providing a better product? Sounds like someone is a tad insecure about his business.

Or maybe you're talking out of your ass and don't work for a real business at all.

This is how civil, interesting threads turn ugly and get locked.   Just because you disagree with a viewpoint is no reason to accuse someone of lying.   
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 17, 2014, 03:30:41 PM
Predictable response. Why should you be allowed to target your competition for destruction through regulation rather than providing a better product? Sounds like someone is a tad insecure about his business.

Or maybe you're talking out of your ass and don't work for a real business at all.

lmao, are you serious?  Not every businessman is out to destroy the competition.  I have zero desire to eliminate the competition completely in Madison.  We make great money, and don't have to kill ourselves to do it.  What is the point of expansion if I have to increase my work load?  I sure don't need more money, nor do I need to work more hours to acquire it.

Talk about a predicable response.  My business doesn't fit the narrative you push, so it must be fake.  You're awful cute.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Lennys Tap on January 17, 2014, 03:31:40 PM
I think Chicos hacked your account!!

It was a joke, brand.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: brandx on January 17, 2014, 03:31:53 PM
The liberal closes in on the true purpose of regulation such as a minimum wage law: the elimination of competition in the market.

How will the taxes for your welfare programs do if no one has jobs?

Except, for the fact that it actually creates more competition, since people have more to spend. And if they are spending more, that creates new jobs.

People won't buy more widgets because you produce more. People will buy more widgets when they have the $$$ to buy them..

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 17, 2014, 03:32:10 PM
More money in people's pockets is always bad for business :o

Every dollar extra that people on minimum wage get is one more dollar driving the economy. It's not money they sit on.

That assumes the business that pays that wage can pay the wage because they are getting work.  Raising the minimum wage only works at the federal level.  City of Milwaukee creating a living wage creates a wage island that will force companies to non-Milwaukee locations resulting in a net loss for Milwaukee but relatively neutral for the SE Wisconsin region.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 17, 2014, 03:33:00 PM
By the way, congratulations on contributing to America's uninsured problem by dumping your employees insurance. Tell me about how Obamacare is going to solve America's problem of the uninsured?

First I'm not good enough of a businessman, now I'm just to damn smart.

Which is it?

u mad?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: brandx on January 17, 2014, 03:33:23 PM
It was a joke, brand.

I figured it was - and so was mine. I'm usually in agreement with most of your positions.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 17, 2014, 03:35:29 PM
Except, for the fact that it actually creates more competition, since people have more to spend. And if they are spending more, that creates new jobs.

People won't buy more widgets because you produce more. People will buy more widgets when they have the $$$ to buy them..



Except the relative buying power of that extra dollar is negated by the producer having to charge more for the same widget.  So yes they are in absolute terms spending more money but it has little to no impact on overall money in the system or increasing the overall wealth of all.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: LAZER on January 17, 2014, 03:38:00 PM
3D printing to reduce labor/manufacturig costs in the US?

I think we're pretty far away from that.  Its main impact will be in rapid prototyping and speed to market, but right now you can only "print" using plastic and there are serious scalability constraints.

I think easy to use and adaptable robotics/automation will have a bigger impact than 3D printing.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Chicago_inferiority_complexes on January 17, 2014, 03:38:07 PM
Certainly the fact that you want to defeat competition through regulation suggests you run a bad business. No arguments here. You're probably in an exclusively rent-seeking business, anyway. Maybe someday talk to people in a real business who have to pay for the extra costs and regulations of your president.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 17, 2014, 03:45:42 PM
Certainly the fact that you want to defeat competition through regulation suggests you run a bad business. No arguments here. You're probably in an exclusively rent-seeking business, anyway. Maybe someday talk to people in a real business who have to pay for the extra costs and regulations of your president.

I'm largely on the same side of the discussion as you, but to take the kind of tone you have is totally unneeded.  Argue your point from a civil and logical standpoint and let the chips fall where they may.  Lashing out just makes you seem unsure of your arguments.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Hards Alumni on January 17, 2014, 03:51:25 PM
Certainly the fact that you want to defeat competition through regulation suggests you run a bad business. No arguments here. You're probably in an exclusively rent-seeking business, anyway. Maybe someday talk to people in a real business who have to pay for the extra costs and regulations of your president.

Keep the assumptions coming, they're easy to debunk.  

I already told you, we were outperforming our competition in metrics, and financially prior to the living wage initiation.  Our business has no political affiliation, lobbies no one, and donates no money to either political party.  Anyone who wants to can start their own company similar to ours.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: brandx on January 17, 2014, 04:24:07 PM
I'm largely on the same side of the discussion as you, but to take the kind of tone you have is totally unneeded.  Argue your point from a civil and logical standpoint and let the chips fall where they may.  Lashing out just makes you seem unsure of your arguments.

+1

It's not that hard to 'argue' without forcing the mod to lock a thread. A little respect goes a long way.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on January 17, 2014, 05:52:09 PM
Then just raise the minimum wage to $500/hr - we'll all be rich!

Exactly!!!  I mean if $15 an hour does no harm and is ONLY going to help everyone, crap we should raise it to $1000 an hour, since there are no consequences to this stuff...so I'm told.    :o   There's no downside, ever.  It's all boats rise, everyone wins. 


In my next life I hope to be someone that can advocate for all kinds of expenditures and goodies for the masses and not have to pay for any of them.


And I'm following up on the joke..... ;D
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 17, 2014, 06:35:55 PM
Not every businessman is out to destroy the competition.  I have zero desire to eliminate the competition.

My God but this is disturbing! There is no substitute for victory!
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 17, 2014, 07:20:29 PM
Not my area of expertise but a young man who virtually grew up at my house for years did business in China and is now COO/ CFO of a US company told me that skilled workers are more efficient here while low skilled jobs will continue to remain in China and elsewhere. He brought back complex manufacturing to the US: Portland, a curiously business friendly city( but weird) and surprisingly, to me, just built a plant in N.Y. State.
Just my 1 1/2 cents worth

The skill base of precision manufacturing in China has been there for more than 20 years. What we are seeing is a ramp up in capacity at the higher end in China.

The quandary for China is that their cost advantage in manufacturing is almost entirely in direct labor rate which is far less of a factor in precision tooling. Overall, China offers significant advantages in cost but that advantage is eroding. There are new labor markets beginning to become viable but lack China's mass and scale in both labor and capital infrastructure will always mean that some % of production will remain there for the next several decades. Frankly, I would much rather pay incrementally more in China than relive the growing pains by sourcing in Vietnam or Bangladesh.

We needed some prototypes built for post-combustion quench area temperature controls and ended up having them made in Thüringen because the quality mandate specified by the end-user trumped cost considerations. We haven't determined a longer term manufacturing strategy but it is clear that given the extreme temperatures at which we operate and the specialized ceramic and steel necessary for those environmentals will prioritize quality over cost. The power industry legitimately has a zero failure tolerance for numerous reasons which are all too obvious.

But as we look to the future, the EU is sponsoring programs that work collectively with business to identify technical training requirements and invest in the people and supporting infrastructure to enable productivity and innovation. That space is largely left to the private sector in the US. What we have learned is that there is no shortage of financial capital in America but there is a profound lack of competent technical staff, especially among skilled tradesmen in precision tooling and testing.

We have cities and shires in Germany and the UK courting us now and what we find compelling is not tax moratoria but their support in training the skilled work force needed to sustain competitive advantage. I have been extremely frustrated in meetings in Olympia over the past few months where we have outlined the skills needed for materials science (versus computer science) based research and compared how the EU is addressing this fundamental business issue. The politicians have demonstrated an extreme unwillingness to make any changes to current curricula in this state. The reason has nothing to do with enterprise; it is entirely about patronage and messing with sacred cows. If this attitude is being replicated in 49 other states then this country is in trouble.

   
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: brandx on January 17, 2014, 10:21:13 PM
The skill base of precision manufacturing in China has been there for more than 20 years. What we are seeing is a ramp up in capacity at the higher end in China.

The quandary for China is that their cost advantage in manufacturing is almost entirely in direct labor rate which is far less of a factor in precision tooling. Overall, China offers significant advantages in cost but that advantage is eroding. There are new labor markets beginning to become viable but lack China's mass and scale in both labor and capital infrastructure will always mean that some % of production will remain there for the next several decades. Frankly, I would much rather pay incrementally more in China than relive the growing pains by sourcing in Vietnam or Bangladesh.

We needed some prototypes built for post-combustion quench area temperature controls and ended up having them made in Thüringen because the quality mandate specified by the end-user trumped cost considerations. We haven't determined a longer term manufacturing strategy but it is clear that given the extreme temperatures at which we operate and the specialized ceramic and steel necessary for those environmentals will prioritize quality over cost. The power industry legitimately has a zero failure tolerance for numerous reasons which are all too obvious.

But as we look to the future, the EU is sponsoring programs that work collectively with business to identify technical training requirements and invest in the people and supporting infrastructure to enable productivity and innovation. That space is largely left to the private sector in the US. What we have learned is that there is no shortage of financial capital in America but there is a profound lack of competent technical staff, especially among skilled tradesmen in precision tooling and testing.

We have cities and shires in Germany and the UK courting us now and what we find compelling is not tax moratoria but their support in training the skilled work force needed to sustain competitive advantage. I have been extremely frustrated in meetings in Olympia over the past few months where we have outlined the skills needed for materials science (versus computer science) based research and compared how the EU is addressing this fundamental business issue. The politicians have demonstrated an extreme unwillingness to make any changes to current curricula in this state. The reason has nothing to do with enterprise; it is entirely about patronage and messing with sacred cows. If this attitude is being replicated in 49 other states then this country is in trouble.


Excellent post - but this isn't a new phenomenon. I think American businesses have always been this way. Rich, established companies do not take risks here - I think, more so than in other countries. There is a reason it was Microsoft, Google, etc that were the innovators rather than IBM.

When you look at the richest people this country has produced, they mainly come from just a couple 5-10 year spans. Because whether it was the industrial revolution or the computer revolution, it was young aggressive people who led the charge over the status quo. I don't think this was the case so much in Europe.

I'm reading a book about the rise of the airplane industry and, again it was the same thing. By the time Lindbergh crossed the Atlantic, regular passenger flight between major cities was already in place in Europe, but nowhere to be found in the U.S.

Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: forgetful on January 17, 2014, 10:29:31 PM
Excellent post - but this isn't a new phenomenon. I think American businesses have always been this way. Rich, established companies do not take risks here - I think, more so than in other countries. There is a reason it was Microsoft, Google, etc that were the innovators rather than IBM.

When you look at the richest people this country has produced, they mainly come from just a couple 5-10 year spans. Because whether it was the industrial revolution or the computer revolution, it was young aggressive people who led the charge over the status quo. I don't think this was the case so much in Europe.

I'm reading a book about the rise of the airplane industry and, again it was the same thing. By the time Lindbergh crossed the Atlantic, regular passenger flight between major cities was already in place in Europe, but nowhere to be found in the U.S.



Part of this is logistics, and applies equally to the thread on internet being faster/more accessible in Europe.  People often forget how small each of the European countries are and how close these major cities are located.  That allows for infrastructure to be built quickly (internet) and in the airplane industry, allowed easy short flights to connect major cities.

That isn't the case in the US, where we have much more land and hence laying cable or making flights is more costly and less efficient.

As for Keefe's long post.  Agree well written.  One aspect that he doesn't mention though is a change in the mentality of many of the Chinese bests minds.  It used to be that they came to the US/EU to get educated and then wanted to stay.  These same individuals are now returning home and ones that have established successful careers are also returning to China.

That will mitigate some of the effects of the decreasing cost advantages of moving production to China, they will start to develop more and more home grown technologies that will efficiently compete with the US on a global scale.  This could lead to a new round of rampant growth in China and further erosion of the Western dominance in many fields.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: wildbill sb on January 17, 2014, 11:01:03 PM
Actually, what about the prediction that China's lack of natural resources may reduce them to third world status in the not-too-distant future?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: keefe on January 19, 2014, 10:07:54 PM
Actually, what about the prediction that China's lack of natural resources may reduce them to third world status in the not-too-distant future?

I wouldn't factor that as heavily as I would several other concerns. A far more significant risk management issue for China is forex exposure. The RMB is grossly undervalued, similar to the Yen until the mid 80's. What happened to Japan was not that they were entirely dependent on imported resources (which China is NOT) but that the Reagan administration tired of Japanese intransigence on trade.

MITI argued with a straight face that Japan could not import US beef, tomatoes, or rice because of Japanese intestinal concerns. Reagan called bull sh!t on Tokyo and in a span of 6 months the Yen strengthened from Y360:USD1 to Y120:USD1. And remember that Reagan and Nakasone had a great personal relationship.

People might not realize it but it was Japanese industry that brought American manufacturing to its knees, from which our industrial base has never recovered. But it was American Treasury policy that brought the Yen into alignment with its proper value. And while America's economy shifted towards services Japanese industry shifted its manufacturing from the Homeland to other Asian markets in order to maintain its competitive edge. It was Japanese capital that developed China's modern industrial base. The degree of integration between those two economies is significant.

China today has a huge trade surplus with every other post-industrial nation, in much the same way Japan did 30 years ago. And like the 1985 Yen the RMB is grossly undervalued. The strategic Achilles Heel for Beijing is in managing its forex exposure. And if you notice, who is the leading investor of capital in Africa? China. They are preparing for the day they no longer have that artificial structural benefit.

Compounding the situation for Beijing is the fact that Washington, London, Berlin, Canberra, Ottawa, et al genuinely dislike China for many valid reasons. Human rights is just the starting point. Chinese capital funds nuclear weapons development in a number of places we would prefer the local leaders not have such capability. And Chinese weapons keep turning up in the hands of Iranian Quds, Taliban hajis, and Abu Sayef militia - all groups actively killing American forces. Beijing's strategic political risk is very real and it should be.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: 4everwarriors on January 20, 2014, 08:46:42 AM
Forex as in natural lamb skin condoms?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 20, 2014, 10:31:50 AM
I wouldn't factor that as heavily as I would several other concerns. A far more significant risk management issue for China is forex exposure. The RMB is grossly undervalued, similar to the Yen until the mid 80's. What happened to Japan was not that they were entirely dependent on imported resources (which China is NOT) but that the Reagan administration tired of Japanese intransigence on trade.

MITI argued with a straight face that Japan could not import US beef, tomatoes, or rice because of Japanese intestinal concerns. Reagan called bull sh!t on Tokyo and in a span of 6 months the Yen strengthened from Y360:USD1 to Y120:USD1. And remember that Reagan and Nakasone had a great personal relationship.

People might not realize it but it was Japanese industry that brought American manufacturing to its knees, from which our industrial base has never recovered. But it was American Treasury policy that brought the Yen into alignment with its proper value. And while America's economy shifted towards services Japanese industry shifted its manufacturing from the Homeland to other Asian markets in order to maintain its competitive edge. It was Japanese capital that developed China's modern industrial base. The degree of integration between those two economies is significant.

China today has a huge trade surplus with every other post-industrial nation, in much the same way Japan did 30 years ago. And like the 1985 Yen the RMB is grossly undervalued. The strategic Achilles Heel for Beijing is in managing its forex exposure. And if you notice, who is the leading investor of capital in Africa? China. They are preparing for the day they no longer have that artificial structural benefit.

Compounding the situation for Beijing is the fact that Washington, London, Berlin, Canberra, Ottawa, et al genuinely dislike China for many valid reasons. Human rights is just the starting point. Chinese capital funds nuclear weapons development in a number of places we would prefer the local leaders not have such capability. And Chinese weapons keep turning up in the hands of Iranian Quds, Taliban hajis, and Abu Sayef militia - all groups actively killing American forces. Beijing's strategic political risk is very real and it should be.

I agree with most of this assessment.  China is essentially playing a shell game at this point, hoping to maintain the status quo as long as possible.  They are essentially following the Wal-Mart model with foreign investment, using foreign moneys at an extremely favorable ratio to develop internal consumer demands to the point that it can be self-sustained once the foreign demand moves to another location.  It's a delicate balance because as they develop their internal demand that increases the cost of living demands within the country which negatively impacts the attractiveness of the labor rate.  At least 50% of the facilities in China we've put equipment into in the last 12 months have been focused on delivering products to the China market not the "outside" world.

This is also why China has purchased so much US debt, as a hedge and influence on US economic policy to limit the possibility of the "Japan scenario" you've detailed.  If QE infinity were ever to end and be replaced by a sensible, non-enabling monetary policy that would put significant pressure on China to revalue the RMB.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on January 20, 2014, 11:36:49 AM

I'm reading a book about the rise of the airplane industry and, again it was the same thing. By the time Lindbergh crossed the Atlantic, regular passenger flight between major cities was already in place in Europe, but nowhere to be found in the U.S.


Yes, but this is like the wired argument people make about Japan or Korea....size matters.  I could fall out of bed in Europe and be in another country they are so closely tied.  One day on a train and I'm in several countries.  This isn't the case in the States, a land mass far far greater with millions of square miles of rural land that Europe just doesn't compare to.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on January 20, 2014, 11:39:16 AM

This is also why China has purchased so much US debt, as a hedge and influence on US economic policy to limit the possibility of the "Japan scenario" you've detailed.  If QE infinity were ever to end and be replaced by a sensible, non-enabling monetary policy that would put significant pressure on China to revalue the RMB.

With Yellen at the controls, I don't see QE ending anytime soon....unfortunately.   Got to keep the peeps thinking the recovery is real and stable.  Cheap money.  ::)
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: 4everwarriors on January 20, 2014, 12:09:36 PM
Sounds exactly like the s hit Americans are bein' fed daily.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: brandx on January 20, 2014, 12:21:26 PM
Yes, but this is like the wired argument people make about Japan or Korea....size matters.  I could fall out of bed in Europe and be in another country they are so closely tied.  One day on a train and I'm in several countries.  This isn't the case in the States, a land mass far far greater with millions of square miles of rural land that Europe just doesn't compare to.

You're forgetting that the urban areas in the US at that time were basically east of the Mississippi. There are no logistical problems concerning distance with Boston, New York, Baltimore (one of the largest metropolitan areas at that time), Philadelphia, Chicago and St. Louis. You can check distances from London to major cities in Europe and not see a lot of difference.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 20, 2014, 01:03:10 PM
You're forgetting that the urban areas in the US at that time were basically east of the Mississippi. There are no logistical problems concerning distance with Boston, New York, Baltimore (one of the largest metropolitan areas at that time), Philadelphia, Chicago and St. Louis. You can check distances from London to major cities in Europe and not see a lot of difference.

You are also forgetting population densities at the time.  Yes the majority of the population was east of the Mississippi but it was still less dense in urban areas than in Europe.  Europe had an established mass transit system that focused population in the major cities creating the densities that enabled an aviation industry.  The US was not nearly as dense in the urban areas limiting the potential for such a feature.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: 77ncaachamps on January 20, 2014, 01:45:15 PM

Just to clarify, I'm not using "outsourcing" in the first-shaking "THEY TOOK OUR JOBS!" sort of way.

But, factually, a lot of products that used to be manufactured in the US are now made elsewhere. Visit any major retailer and you'll see it. In 1950, if you went to a store, most things were made locally.

It's just part of the global economy.

The pendulum could certainly swing back to the US (or possibly Mexico) at some point. I know Africa is currently building infrastructure, but maybe that's more like 20-30yrs away.

The US still has a ridiculous amount of natural resources, so it's still a good place to manufacture, but companies have to figure out how to keep the costs down. Labor cost has been a big hurdle the past 30 years.

But the pollution of the factories stay in China, overseas. Is it worth the tradeoff?
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: mu03eng on January 20, 2014, 02:28:56 PM
But the pollution of the factories stay in China, overseas. Is it worth the tradeoff?

Except the pollution travels and China puts up factories that are WAY more pollution intensive than anything built in the last 15 years in the US.  That's what made the Kyoto treaty such a farce.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on January 21, 2014, 09:01:23 AM
The skill base of precision manufacturing in China has been there for more than 20 years. What we are seeing is a ramp up in capacity at the higher end in China.

The quandary for China is that their cost advantage in manufacturing is almost entirely in direct labor rate which is far less of a factor in precision tooling. Overall, China offers significant advantages in cost but that advantage is eroding. There are new labor markets beginning to become viable but lack China's mass and scale in both labor and capital infrastructure will always mean that some % of production will remain there for the next several decades. Frankly, I would much rather pay incrementally more in China than relive the growing pains by sourcing in Vietnam or Bangladesh.
   

I agree with the precision thing based on my experience.  It was Hong Kongese running the factories and the smaller supplier shops.  They's take the KCR to the mainland Monday morning and back home on Friday.  (The weird side note to this was Hong Kongese who work at home all week purchasing weekend McMansions in the mainland in gated communities because they were so cheap comparably to Hong Kong as well as with of plenty of space compared to Hong Kong.)

The one thing I found odd when dealing with Chinese manufacturing was missing creativity.  I'd deal with a supplier and it always went like this, "What to do recommend or do you have a preferred way to do?"  The reply was always, "Well how do you want us to make it?"  I always assumed it was a cultural hierarchical don't want to lose face thing.

The pollution was horrible to see.  I almost choked to death on the first day of the first visit.  I had to go for my morning run and when I got back to my hotel room I spent the next minute coughing horribly.  The scary part was I seemed to actually aclimate to the pollution soon after.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on January 21, 2014, 02:22:52 PM
You're forgetting that the urban areas in the US at that time were basically east of the Mississippi. There are no logistical problems concerning distance with Boston, New York, Baltimore (one of the largest metropolitan areas at that time), Philadelphia, Chicago and St. Louis. You can check distances from London to major cities in Europe and not see a lot of difference.

Population density

Much different in Europe, especially back then, vs the States. 
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: akmarq on January 21, 2014, 02:50:38 PM
Except the relative buying power of that extra dollar is negated by the producer having to charge more for the same widget.  So yes they are in absolute terms spending more money but it has little to no impact on overall money in the system or increasing the overall wealth of all.

Minimum wage isn't meant to increase wealth - it's meant to redistribute existing wealth. That might not be the narrative that either side of the political argument pushes, but it's the net effect. You may get some temporary bump in GDP due to the higher marginal propensity to consume of low income earners (meaning they spend more of every dollar they get) but that will likely be mitigated by price inflation (as you correctly mention).

You can find economics to make it look like a great or terrible idea. I agree that it would be more effective on the federal/state level but there are some pretty non-negligible costs to relocating a business from Milwaukee so it's  not as simple as claiming that a living wage law would drive out all businesses.

Those who support living wage laws (myself included) tend to fallback on the argument that anyone working 40+ hours ought to be compensated at above the poverty line as a matter of principal. Whether or not that is achieved through minimum wage or other means is irrelevant to me.
Title: Re: Milwaukee In Decline?
Post by: Coleman on January 21, 2014, 02:52:46 PM
Minimum wage isn't meant to increase wealth - it's meant to redistribute existing wealth. That might not be the narrative that either side of the political argument pushes, but it's the net effect. You may get some temporary bump in GDP due to the higher marginal propensity to consume of low income earners (meaning they spend more of every dollar they get) but that will likely be mitigated by price inflation (as you correctly mention).

You can find economics to make it look like a great or terrible idea. I agree that it would be more effective on the federal/state level but there are some pretty non-negligible costs to relocating a business from Milwaukee so it's  not as simple as claiming that a living wage law would drive out all businesses.

Those who support living wage laws (myself included) tend to fallback on the argument that anyone working 40+ hours ought to be compensated at above the poverty line as a matter of principal. Whether or not that is achieved through minimum wage or other means is irrelevant to me.

Well said!