MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Henry Sugar on January 13, 2014, 01:04:58 PM
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Putting this out there to see what the general consensus is for MU's chances.
Note that 14-4 would mean winning 12 out of 14 remaining games.
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Honestly for this year I dont think it would take as much as everybody thinks. It seems that as a whole the NCAA is down this year. I can see this year being the year of the mid-major where a lot of those teams get in rather then the Big 6 (7? 8?) conferences. Well see how it plays out but it seems that over recent years that the selection committee has been very favorable to MU and I think that still stands this year.
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I said 21-10. We might need a win in NYC at the BET on top of that.
That means we finish out 11-3 from here on out. This team has the talent to do it. Giddy up boys.
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3 - The way MU is playing currently combined with the "No Bad Losses / No Good Wins" banner, the omnly thing that will matter in making the NCAA tourney will be winning 3 games in the BE tourney.
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All depends on who MU beats and who beats MU.
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I said 21-10. We might need a win in NYC at the BET on top of that.
That means we finish out 11-3 from here on out. This team has the talent to do it. Giddy up boys.
21-10 will bubble us. Need quality wins--two to three.
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I think 20-11 puts us in.
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All depends on who MU beats and who beats MU.
This
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I said 21-10. We might need a win in NYC at the BET on top of that.
That means we finish out 11-3 from here on out. This team has the talent to do it. Giddy up boys.
This is generally what I think, although I believe the win in the BET is a requirement.
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I don't think 19-12 is eliminated. They gotta fill the field.
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I said 21-10. We might need a win in NYC at the BET on top of that.
That means we finish out 11-3 from here on out. This team has the talent to do it. Giddy up boys.
This is correct. Can't lose opening game of BET. Need at least one win to ice it and maybe 2 depending on what our 13 wins are (i.e. no wins over Nova, Creighton or Xavier/Georgetown)
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12-6 in the league is still bubble worthy.
Even with Buzz's success and the program's recent rise.
Is there an automatic berth for winning the BE this year? (Not sure if the realigning messed with that)
If so, just win the darn thing to guarantee the slot.
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12-6 in the league is still bubble worthy.
Even with Buzz's success and the program's recent rise.
Is there an automatic berth for winning the BE this year? (Not sure if the realigning messed with that)
If so, just win the darn thing to guarantee the slot.
There is an automatic bid for the Big East. Also, since the AAC (Louisville, Uconn etc) receives an auto-bid, there will be one less at large bid this year.
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12-6, 20-11 should be good enough
Assuming we don't go 1 and done in the BET.
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20-11 assuming they do not lose the first game in Big East tournament. This is less than I said they needed earlier. However, to get to 20-11 they now have to go 10-4, which is a pretty good finish. However, I do not see that happening. It most certainly does not happen, if they lose at Butler.
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I said 21-10...in part because it's hard to count on the BET game making a difference.
For example, if we go 20-11 and then win our first BET game, but it's against DePaul...would that win really make a difference? Not so sure.
On the other hand, I think 21-10 gets us in regardless of what happens at the BET.
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I said 21-10...in part because it's hard to count on the BET game making a difference.
For example, if we go 20-11 and then win our first BET game, but it's against DePaul...would that win really make a difference? Not so sure.
On the other hand, I think 21-10 gets us in regardless of what happens at the BET.
Yes, that win would make a difference because a loss to DePaul in that situation just might knock MU out of the field.
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I said 21-10...in part because it's hard to count on the BET game making a difference.
For example, if we go 20-11 and then win our first BET game, but it's against DePaul...would that win really make a difference? Not so sure.
On the other hand, I think 21-10 gets us in regardless of what happens at the BET.
Yes. It would absolutely make a difference. Every win in the month of March makes a difference.
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All depends on who MU beats and who beats MU.
And who MU beats, beats other teams and who beats MU, beats other teams, and who MU beats, loses to other teams, and who beats MU, loses to other teams.
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I would argue we could go 19-12 and still make it. It would require upsetting Nova at home and some other big wins, no losses to Seton Hall/Depaul and 2 wins in the BET but it could be possible.
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I don't think 19-12 is eliminated. They gotta fill the field.
I think an ACC or B10 team with the same record will jump us to take that spot.
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Yes, that win would make a difference because a loss to DePaul in that situation just might knock MU out of the field.
If we're playing DePaul, who is likely the 9th or 10th place team, it means we're in 7th or 8th place, playing 9th or 10th place DePaul in the first round (top 6 seeds get a buy). If this is the case, then absolutely we have to win--as well as the next three as well-becuase the only way we get a bid as the 7 seed is by winning the whole tournament.
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Yes, that win would make a difference because a loss to DePaul in that situation just might knock MU out of the field.
You're correct. I worded the question poorly - I meant to ask whether a win over DePaul in the first rount of the BET would be enough to get us into the dance. I suspect the answer is no - that we might very well have to win a second (and perhaps third) game in the BET in that scenario.
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You're correct. I worded the question poorly - I meant to ask whether a win over DePaul in the first rount of the BET would be enough to get us into the dance. I suspect the answer is no - that we might very well have to win a second (and perhaps third) game in the BET in that scenario.
Your wording was fine. You were asking about the consequences of a win against DePaul in the first round of the BE tourney. A loss is not part of the question.
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We need to win all the rest of our home games. So that is 7 wins. Then as for the road games we need to go 4-3. Which means beat St. Johns, Seton Hall, Depaul, Providence absolutely required, then in the other three road games against Butler, Georgetown, Villanova not get blown out. So 13-5 conference record. Then at least two wins in the Big East tournament. So from here at 10-7 we are looking at 23-11 minimum. Logic if we do all that we have essentially 6 quality wins (5 Big East plus assuming George Washington keeps playing well) . The reason I think we need to do this well is that I don't see any more than 4 schools from our conference as There are going to be 4 teams for sure from the AAC Louisville, Memphis, Cincy and U -Conn that make it also. I know it shouldn't matter but I feel like the committee will balance it this year, until some sort of trend emerges. So we are in a dogfight with Villanova, Georgetown, Xavier and Creighton. If we defend home court and do well in the BET, we will beat at least one of them in the head to head comparison, and as mentioned gives us enough overall quality wins to get in.
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I think the Big East could get 5 teams in easy. Could maybe even get six if one of the bottom 5 goes on a run and wins the BET. The teams are so even in this league that I would not be surprised to see Butler, Seton Hall, St. John's, or DePaul win the BET
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I think the Big East could get 5 teams in easy. Could maybe even get six if one of the bottom 5 goes on a run and wins the BET. The teams are so even in this league that I would not be surprised to see Butler, Seton Hall, St. John's, or DePaul win the BET
I agree that the teams are even and I really like our league a lot, the immediate issue with our league is that league as a whole has not performed well against tough non league opponents. So in some respects we have to hope that a few teams actually have great runs, then we beat a few of the better teams at home so we can claim wins against a quality opponent. So it is in our interest for Xavier Creighton and Villanova to be actually strong and Georgetown to have enough wins to get by on their name. My reading of the math is that at most we can have 4 teams with strong records and then we or someone else has to sneak in by being the 5th team that looks the best on paper. So to get 5 teams in , my view is that both Marquette and Georgetown have to both do well and of course we want to be perceived as slightly better.
If Butler won the BET that would be a plus for the perceived strength of the league. If Seton Hall, St. Johns or DePaul won, I think basketball insiders would look at it as a positive but the general media types looking for a story would present it as if the league has somehow gone down hill. If we were 2-3 years out t might be different.
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Xavier, Creighton & Villanova are going to go through this league like a hot knife through butter. There will only be three bids, except if someone else wins conference tournament.
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Xavier, Creighton & Villanova are going to go through this league like a hot knife through butter. There will only be three bids, except if someone else wins conference tournament.
I agree on Creighton (though it could be because I'm sitting here watching them tear Butler limb from limb), but I am not entirely convinced on Villanova, and particularly Xavier. They need to go do something, anything away from home before I'll feel like they are a cinch to finish in the top 3.
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Xavier, Creighton & Villanova are going to go through this league like a hot knife through butter. There will only be three bids, except if someone else wins conference tournament.
I'm going on record as saying that our league is definitely getting four bids. Three is simply not happening
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I'm going on record as saying that our league is definitely getting four bids. Three is simply not happening
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Four it shall be. Unless a fifth wins the BET. Then we could get 5.
But we will get four at larges. MU is fighting for the fourth spot.
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Agree the BE will likely get 4, but also I agree with the point that Xavier hasn't yet proven to me that they're clearly in that bunch with Nova and Creighton.
They played only one NC game against a top 25 team (#23 Iowa) and lost, and their other NC losses (Tennessee, USC) aren't too bad, but aren't great either. In conference, two of their three wins are over SJU and Butler (collectively 0-9in the BE), and their game with us could have gone either way. In fact, if that game had been at the BC, we might be at 3-1, and X at 2-2.
They might separate from us within the next few games, but I haven't seen them do it yet.
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+1
Four it shall be. Unless a fifth wins the BET. Then we could get 5.
But we will get four at larges. MU is fighting for the fourth spot.
Villanova and Creighton are in. Two from Xavier, Georgetown, MU and maybe Providence will make it.
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Villanova and Creighton are in. Two from Xavier, Georgetown, MU and maybe Providence will make it.
I think Villanova & Creighton are potential elite 8 teams.
Xavier is a potential sweet 16
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I'm going on record as saying that our league is definitely getting four bids. Three is simply not happening
I think it depends on the record of the 4th place team against the top 3.
If the record against the top 3 is 0-6, and there is no compelling non-conference victory, I'm not sure that the 4th place team will receive a bid. An that could very well be our end-of-year situation.
Right now, I think its fair so say that DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall, St. Johns and Butler are not on a path toward the tourney. They could turn it around, but chances are they won't. Lets say they give us 10 conference wins.
Now say we beat Xavier and finish ahead of them in the standings for 4th place, but are swept by Villanova, Creighton and Georgtown.
11-7 overall record. 4th place in conference. But 0-6 against other tournament teams in conference. Only one conference win of any meaning. And no truly compelling non-conference wins. Is that enough to get us in? I don't know, but I don't think its a comfortable position.
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11-7 overall record. 4th place in conference. But 0-6 against other tournament teams in conference. Only one conference win of any meaning. And no truly compelling non-conference wins. Is that enough to get us in? I don't know, but I don't think its a comfortable position.
I can't see us getting in with that profile. That is about the worst possible 4th place team, though.
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I'd summarize it this way
14-4 or better - Lock.
13-5 - Probable. Lock with win in 1st BET game.
12-6 - Questionable. Lock if make BET title game. 1-1 lean in and in the play-in game 'cause they've gotta fill the field. Doubtful if lose BET opener.
11-7 - Doubtful. Lose BET title game lean in and in the play-in game 'cause they gotta fill the field. 1-1 likely not enough.
10-8 or worse - Out unless win BET.
The questionable stuff gets determined by how many good mid-majors win their leagues/that type of thing.
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I'd summarize it this way
14-4 or better - Lock.
13-5 - Probable. Lock with win in 1st BET game.
12-6 - Questionable. Lock if make BET title game. 1-1 lean in and in the play-in game 'cause they've gotta fill the field. Doubtful if lose BET opener.
11-7 - Doubtful. Lose BET title game lean in and in the play-in game 'cause they gotta fill the field. 1-1 likely not enough.
10-8 or worse - Out unless win BET.
The questionable stuff gets determined by how many good mid-majors win their leagues/that type of thing.
Can't argue with this
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Revised outlook. Need to win all 7 remaining home games. Need to go 4-3 on remaining road, required wins at St.Johns, DePaul, Butler, Seton Hall. Road Losses must be by 5 or less. that gives us 13-5 conference, then need to win 2 games in BET. If we do that we would be 23-11 with 5 quality wins and no bad losses. Very little room for error point because we have no quality wins(unless you count George Washington ) Would get us something like a 12-13 seed. In order to make this happen we are going to need mid teens scoring from both Todd and Davante from here on out, and no more disappearances from Jamil, he has to be a positive factor in every game. If we get those three guys on track the rest will follow to the best of their form.
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Revised outlook. Need to win all 7 remaining home games. Need to go 4-3 on remaining road, required wins at St.Johns, DePaul, Butler, Seton Hall. Road Losses must be by 5 or less. that gives us 13-5 conference, then need to win 2 games in BET. If we do that we would be 23-11 with 5 quality wins and no bad losses. Very little room for error point because we have no quality wins(unless you count George Washington ) Would get us something like a 12-13 seed.
If we go 13-5 in conference and win 2 games in the BET we will NOT be a 12-13 seed. You are way off on that. We would probably end up 3rd in the BE standings with a trip to the BET final. That would be an 8 seed minimum.
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I originally voted 20, but I think it is 21. We can win 20 by still losing all are games against Creighton, Villanova and Xavier. Assuming we win against everyone else we finish the regular season 20-11 and still will not have beaten a good team. Georgetown without Smith and the other injured player is not a good team.
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The answer of course is that it is impossible to predict. Because its all relative, it depends entirley on whom the wins come agains, and what the rest of the country does at the same time.
Would it be better to beat Villanova and lose to Butler, or vice versa (obviously better to beat both)? No way to know, because there is no way to know what those teams are going to do the rest of the way.
Lets not lose sight of the fact that these teams have played only 20-25% of the conference schedule and just over 50% of their overall schedules.
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If we go 13-5 in conference and win 2 games in the BET we will NOT be a 12-13 seed. You are way off on that. We would probably end up 3rd in the BE standings with a trip to the BET final. That would be an 8 seed minimum.
The way I am looking at the seedings is they are roughly the teams overall ranking divided by 4. So I figured if we got to the 23-11 the Way I described , we would be an approximately top 50 team. Divide that by 4 and you get something like 12 or 13. An 8 seed would be a top 32 team which I think would be a stretch. We were an 11 a couple years ago with a similar record. I think the Buzz era has to go on for a while longer before we start getting the benefit of the doubt the way Izzo and Bo get
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The way I am looking at the seedings is they are roughly the teams overall ranking divided by 4. So I figured if we got to the 23-11 the Way I described , we would be an approximately top 50 team. Divide that by 4 and you get something like 12 or 13. An 8 seed would be a top 32 team which I think would be a stretch. We were an 11 a couple years ago with a similar record. I think the Buzz era has to go on for a while longer before we start getting the benefit of the doubt the way Izzo and Bo get
A rank of 50 probably leaves you out of the tournament. MU finishes 23-11 and it will be ranked in the 30-35 range, which divided by 4 is an 8-9 seed.
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A rank of 50 probably leaves you out of the tournament. MU finishes 23-11 and it will be ranked in the 30-35 range, which divided by 4 is an 8-9 seed.
If Creighton Villanova and Xavier keep doing well that is possible
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If MU can finish 12-6 in Big East and win a game in conference tourney - it will make NCAA. MU will get the benefit of the doubt from tourney committee given the "over-performance" MU has had the last 3 tourneys. Plus, the MU name/brand has a little cache that you want in the tourney over say a team like perhaps LaSalle or another mid-major with similar RPI, that isn't a frequent tourney participant.