Honestly, Marquette is the sexy upset picked by guys who watch highlights. We know who we are. Bilas knows who we are and we lose when we do not play within ourselves. Bilas said during the ND game that Marquette is great at the scouting report and executing the report. We are... most of the time. Against ND, we got away from that and we lost. Same deal with Davidson. If we get paint touches, win the 50/50, be opportunistic, we will advance to the sweet 16 this year again. If we start jacking up three's and throw silly passes, we will lose... to almost any team in the tourney.
We know our team. If we play within ourselves, we are very difficult to beat.
We're worried about which team shows up to play this Thursday. As you outlined, it's unpredictable.
Quote from: Jamil_toMU10 on March 18, 2013, 12:18:15 PM
We're worried about which team shows up to play this Thursday. As you outlined, it's unpredictable.
HA ... very true. If it helps anyone, we come out prepared and execute more often than not. I am happy with the draw.
It's amazing how many people here go off the deep end at tourney time. Other fan bases are supremely confident in their team...but not here. We could be playing my high school's JV team, and there would still be people here worried about whether MU could survive and advance.
Quote from: Groin_pull on March 18, 2013, 12:20:27 PM
It's amazing how many people here go off the deep end at tourney time. Other fan bases are supremely confident in their team...but not here. We could be playing my high school's JV team, and there would still be people here worried about whether MU could survive and advance.
Your high school JV team has some great shooters, and MU always struggles against teams like that. Also, they're coached by a legend.
Eeek, it's hard to agree with ErickJD, but i do in this case.
I was ecstatic when i saw MU's path to the S16.
Who would you rather have?
Davidson, Butler/Bucknell
Or
Northwestern St, Minnesota, UCLA
Or
Valpo, Memphis, TBD
Or
Harvard, Arizona, Belmont
I think i know which one i'd choose, and it happens to be the teams we got paired with.
Yeah, Buzz has got this.
(http://www.davidsonwildcats.com/images/2012/11/8/MBBTeamWeb12130.jpg)
Quote from: PTM on March 18, 2013, 12:24:19 PM
Yeah, Buzz has got this.
(http://www.davidsonwildcats.com/images/2012/11/8/MBBTeamWeb12130.jpg)
"Be more athletic than them. F*ck with them."
Quote from: Pakuni on March 18, 2013, 12:22:59 PM
Your high school JV team has some great shooters, and MU always struggles against teams like that. Also, they're coached by a legend.
Let's see....MU struggles with teams that are long, athletic, and push the pace. They also struggle against veteran teams that slow the pace and have good spot-up shooters.
Does that about cover it?
Quote from: Groin_pull on March 18, 2013, 12:30:41 PM
Let's see....MU struggles with teams that are long, athletic, and push the pace. They also struggle against veteran teams that slow the pace and have good spot-up shooters.
Does that about cover it?
Fixed it for you.
Quote from: Groin_pull on March 18, 2013, 12:30:41 PM
Let's see....MU struggles with teams that are long, athletic, and push the pace. They also struggle against veteran teams that slow the pace and have good spot-up shooters.
Does that about cover it?
Any team seeded higher than 16 seed sounds about right for everyone here... ::)
Quote from: PTM on March 18, 2013, 12:24:19 PM
Yeah, Buzz has got this.
(http://www.davidsonwildcats.com/images/2012/11/8/MBBTeamWeb12130.jpg)
Wait a second... we're not playing Wisconsin in the 2nd round, are we?
Quote from: Benny B on March 18, 2013, 12:45:15 PM
Wait a second... we're not playing Wisconsin in the 2nd round, are we?
Nah, their hair is too long.
Quote from: Groin_pull on March 18, 2013, 12:46:13 PM
Nah, their hair is too long.
(http://thebiglead.fantasysportsven.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/brusewitz-eyes.gif)
Quote from: Bocephys on March 18, 2013, 12:55:20 PM
(http://thebiglead.fantasysportsven.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/brusewitz-eyes.gif)
Poor guy. All he's missing is a red nose and big shoes. Wonder if he does kids' birthday parties?
If the good MU shows up and plays buzzball for 40 minutes, MU wins. Attack the paint off of the dribble and feed the post. Davidson isn't athletic enough at guard or deep enough up front to stop MU if MU gets its paint touches and attacks the paint. Defensively, have one of our 4's guard their big, and one of our 5's guard their 4. Contest their 3's and rebound.
Of course, this is the key for most MU games. The question is whether or not the team does it.
I worry, because we probably will not have Big East refs. I have no idea if it will be no blood no foul or if they will call a foul everytime you breathe on the opponent. Normally a lot of fouls would not bother me, because of our depth and we are a better then average free throw shooting team. However, Davidson makes 80% of their free throws. I would be worried even if I was a Louisville fan. They are not likely to lose, if the refs allow them to play the way they have been playing. However, somewhere in 6 games they are going to get refs that want to call fouls. Think how that would effect their defense if their opponent is already in the bonus with 12 minutes to go in half. They will be forced to back off their press. It is even worse for Louisville, because their offense is predicated on their defense. I still believe we lost to Florida, because the refs called two quick fouls on Crowder and it seemed to me that it threw Crowder's game off and the rest of our team because we had became so dependent of Crowder and DJO.
Quote from: bilsu on March 18, 2013, 12:59:14 PM
I worry, because we probably will not have Big East refs. I have no idea if it will be no blood no foul or if they will call a foul everytime you breathe on the opponent. Normally a lot of fouls would not bother me, because of our depth and we are a better then average free throw shooting team. However, Davidson makes 80% of their free throws. I would be worried even if I was a Louisville fan. They are not likely to lose, if the refs allow them to play the way they have been playing. However, somewhere in 6 games they are going to get refs that want to call fouls. Think how that would effect their defense if their opponent is already in the bonus with 12 minutes to go in half. They will be forced to back off their press. It is even worse for Louisville, because their offense is predicated on their defense. I still believe we lost to Florida, because the refs called two quick fouls on Crowder and it seemed to me that it threw Crowder's game off and the rest of our team because we had became so dependent of Crowder and DJO.
No Big East refs??? Sign me up for that!
Everytime we see a shaky performance, people assume it will be a wake-up call, but it oaks not. The team plays too lackadaisical, that's why we have turnover issues.
Quote from: Groin_pull on March 18, 2013, 12:20:27 PM
It's amazing how many people here go off the deep end at tourney time. Other fan bases are supremely confident in their team...but not here. We could be playing my high school's JV team, and there would still be people here worried about whether MU could survive and advance.
If we play like a #3 seed and they play like a #14 seed, we win. That simple.
Quote from: statnik on March 18, 2013, 01:12:34 PM
Everytime we see a shaky performance, people assume it will be a wake-up call, but it oaks not. The team plays too lackadaisical, that's why we have turnover issues.
No stupid fouls 30 feet from basket.
Defense the three, which has been a huge weakness though.
Run them up and down court, they have no bench like MU.
Then its an easy win.
Quote from: Montana Warrior on March 18, 2013, 01:16:48 PM
If we play like a #3 seed and they play like a #14 seed, we win. That simple.
If we score more than they do, we win.
Quote from: statnik on March 18, 2013, 01:12:34 PM
Everytime we see a shaky performance, people assume it will be a wake-up call, but it oaks not. The team plays too lackadaisical, that's why we have turnover issues.
Except when we played like crap against UWGB and didn't lose for a month after that....or lost at Nova and won four in a row.
This team is capable of playing at a real high level, but when we have clunkers, we have clunkers.
Quote from: RJax55 on March 18, 2013, 01:19:23 PM
If we score more than they do, we win.
Brilliant....succinct and to the point!
We've followed up every loss so far with at least two wins. We'll be on track.
Quote from: Benny B on March 18, 2013, 12:45:15 PM
Wait a second... we're not playing Wisconsin in the 2nd round, are we?
Not inbred looking enough.
Quote from: PTM on March 18, 2013, 12:24:19 PM
Yeah, Buzz has got this.
(http://www.davidsonwildcats.com/images/2012/11/8/MBBTeamWeb12130.jpg)
(http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ma3t8f2Nxg1r3kkje.gif)
Unless Steph curry is somehow still playing for Davidson I'm not worried.
I have never seen Davidson play, but here's the reason I'm worried - the guys in Vegas who make a living doing this make us a 4 point favorite, while the other 3s (and 4s) are mostly double digit chalks. Nate Silver gives Davidson a one in three chance to beat us. Hope we breeze, but this game feels like Holy Cross in 2003 or Utah St in 2008 - real taffy pulls.
In terms of Vegas this seems like such a trap bet. A lot of people are going to be taking Davidson and the points because of the media and its a trendy pick. Vegas knows this and is taking advantage of it. Vegas plays the betters not the teams.
Quote from: esard2011 on March 18, 2013, 02:03:45 PM
In terms of Vegas this seems like such a trap bet. A lot of people are going to be taking Davidson and the points because of the media and its a trendy pick. Vegas knows this and is taking advantage of it. Vegas plays the betters not the teams.
Vegas lines are set almost entirely on power rankings. they don't care about a "trendy" pick, since the professionals can absorb that kind of action in a heartbeat. They will sometimes adjust a line (slightly) in favor of a hot team, and Davidson, with 17 wins in a row by an average of 18 points, is certainly hot.
Quote from: statnik on March 18, 2013, 01:12:34 PM
Everytime we see a shaky performance, people assume it will be a wake-up call, but it oaks not. The team plays too lackadaisical, that's why we have turnover issues.
When was the last time you watched this year's team lose two games in a row??? Yeah, that's what I thought.
Quote from: Groin_pull on March 18, 2013, 12:20:27 PM
It's amazing how many people here go off the deep end at tourney time. Other fan bases are supremely confident in their team...but not here. We could be playing my high school's JV team, and there would still be people here worried about whether MU could survive and advance.
That is because all of the other three seeds aren't being picked to lose by every other analyst out there.
Quote from: Pakuni on March 18, 2013, 12:22:59 PM
Your high school JV team has some great shooters, and MU always struggles against teams like that. Also, they're coached by a legend.
Teal?
Quote from: RawdogDX on March 18, 2013, 02:36:36 PM
That is because all of the other three seeds aren't being picked to lose by every other analyst out there.
Where did those same analysts pick Marquette to finish this year? Most people on this board have watched a lot more Marquette basketball than the analysts, and we've seen them figure out a way to win. And if I have to take an analyst's opinion, I'll choose Bilas over almost anyone else.
We always have different guys stepping up but if all of our players are clicking it shouldn't be an issue. I think Junior, Vander and Davante show up this game and if guys like Jamil and Chris do too it should be a pretty easy W. Thankfully Jamil's really come on more toward the end of this year so I hope he has a big game. Someone with his length and athleticism should be able to take advantage of their weaker defense.
We worry because we're fans and that's what fans do. My hbrain says we should win, but I'm still nervous about the game. Despite all the empirical evidence to the contrary, I just don't feel as good about this team as I did about last year's team.
The guy who figures upset likelihood on ESPN.com gives Davidson a 1 in 4 chance of knocking us off.
(8) No. 14 Davidson Wildcats versus No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles
Upset chance: 25.3 percent
What you need to know: The Wildcats can shoot from anywhere and hardly ever turn the ball over.
They think we're the 8th most likely team to lose a game with a seed differential of 5 or more. The schools more likely to lose than us are: UCLA (74%), Memphis (53% or 67%, depending on opponent), Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Butler and VCU, in that order. The full explanations for the East aren't out yet.
For comparison's sake, he gives Ole Miss a 22.9% chance of knocking of Wisconsin
I was worried, but Pomeroy has us as a significantly better offensive and defensive team. Davidson has the 40th ranked offense and 103rd ranked defense. Marquette is 17th and 50th.
Quote from: CTWarrior on March 18, 2013, 03:36:54 PM
We worry because we're fans and that's what fans do. My hbrain says we should win, but I'm still nervous about the game. Despite all the empirical evidence to the contrary, I just don't feel as good about this team as I did about last year's team.
The guy who figures upset likelihood on ESPN.com gives Davidson a 1 in 4 chance of knocking us off.
(8) No. 14 Davidson Wildcats versus No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles
Upset chance: 25.3 percent
What you need to know: The Wildcats can shoot from anywhere and hardly ever turn the ball over.
They think we're the 8th most likely team to lose a game with a seed differential of 5 or more. The schools more likely to lose than us are: UCLA (74%), Memphis (53% or 67%, depending on opponent), Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Butler and VCU, in that order. The full explanations for the East aren't out yet.
For comparison's sake, he gives Ole Miss a 22.9% chance of knocking of Wisconsin
Statistically, the bold is accurate, but consider the competition.
Against some of the better teams (or at least better than most of their conference foes) on their schedule, Davidson has had turnover issues.
vs Duke .... 14 turnovers
vs Richmond .... 18 turnovers
vs Gonzaga .... 13 turnovers
vs Charlotte .... 13 turnovers
vs W. Virginia .... 20 turnovers
Quote from: CTWarrior on March 18, 2013, 03:36:54 PM
(8) No. 14 Davidson Wildcats versus No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles
Upset chance: 25.3 percent
Well, I believe the 3 seed historically has lost 18% of the time, so I would consider that pretty close.
The clunker happened vs Notre Dame. No way we lose 2 in a row, and the team is gonna be fired up given its the first game of the tourney.
I do not think we have play well the last three games. We are also overseeded at 3. We should of been a 5. However, a 5 should still be a 14.
I don't know for sure but don't we all think Buzz is reminding the guys that 'they're not any good'? We play way better with a chip. And I'd be really worried if all the talk was about an upcoming game against Butler.
Quote from: jsglow on March 18, 2013, 08:57:27 PM
I don't know for sure but don't we all think Buzz is reminding the guys that 'they're not any good'? We play way better with a chip. And I'd be really worried if all the talk was about an upcoming game against Butler.
Buzz was on point with that today on CBS sports on Rome's show. Classic Buzz.
We suck, Vegas hates us, we pee'd down our leg again, everyone is picking us to lose....
Murray State, I mean Davidson, wont know what hit them.
Quote from: reinko on March 18, 2013, 01:38:53 PM
(http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ma3t8f2Nxg1r3kkje.gif)
Damn, even all the coaches are Traditionals.
Feel quite good that Buzz will have the team ready for opening weekend. Was very worried going into BET because of how we played in previous couple of games. Buzz has proven to have the guys ready everytime it looked like reason to worry. While I do not think we are a great team, I do think we are dangerous because of ability to play 9 deep if needed. Actually feel very confident we see second weekend again this year.
Quote from: CTWarrior on March 18, 2013, 03:36:54 PM
We worry because we're fans and that's what fans do. My hbrain says we should win, but I'm still nervous about the game. Despite all the empirical evidence to the contrary, I just don't feel as good about this team as I did about last year's team.
The guy who figures upset likelihood on ESPN.com gives Davidson a 1 in 4 chance of knocking us off.
(8) No. 14 Davidson Wildcats versus No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles
Upset chance: 25.3 percent
What you need to know: The Wildcats can shoot from anywhere and hardly ever turn the ball over.
They think we're the 8th most likely team to lose a game with a seed differential of 5 or more. The schools more likely to lose than us are: UCLA (74%), Memphis (53% or 67%, depending on opponent), Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Butler and VCU, in that order. The full explanations for the East aren't out yet.
For comparison's sake, he gives Ole Miss a 22.9% chance of knocking of Wisconsin
Last year ESPN didn't even mention Norfolk State in their potential upsets article. They tried to build a formula based on some Cinderellas of the past, but this stuff is just designed to fill space on the site at a time when people are rabid for NCAA info. I wouldn't put any stock in that article, as it seems ESPN's hot upset picks rarely come out. Not saying we couldn't lose this game, but this annual article isn't the place I'd turn for that knowledge.
A question asked on the scout board is relevant to this. If this were a regular season game, what would this board be saying about Davidson?
As I have written in other threads, I fully understand why Davidson is a common upset pick. I live in Charlotte and have seen Davidson a lot.
They are experienced, well-coached, shoot 3-pointers well and have two players (Cohen and Brooks) who will get serious NBA consideration. They come into the tournament on a long winning streak and played Gonzaga, New Mexico and Duke pretty tough. It doesn't hurt that romantic types still remember the Steph Curry team's run.
Their weaknesses -- particularly, they don't play defense particularly well and they are foul-prone -- mesh well with our strengths. So yes, we should beat them. But I do believe that Davidson is better than the typical No. 14 seed.
Plus, I admit that I also still have almost-nightmares from our almost-loss to No. 14 Holy Cross in 2003, when we just so happened to have the best player in Marquette history, two other NBA players and a legit big man. I'm guessing that if Scoop were around back then, a post would have been started with the subject: "Why is everyone so worried?"
So yes, I do worry.
Quote from: tower912 on March 19, 2013, 07:13:42 AM
A question asked on the scout board is relevant to this. If this were a regular season game, what would this board be saying about Davidson?
Ding ding ding.
+1
Quote from: MU82 on March 19, 2013, 07:18:21 AM
Their weaknesses -- particularly, they don't play defense particularly well and they are foul-prone -- mesh well with our strengths. So yes, we should beat them.
According to Pomeroy, we have the 17th most efficient offense in the country. We also did that playing against the hardest strength of schedule of all division 1 teams in terms of opponents defensive efficiency.
Davidson has the 40th most efficient offense in the country, but did it against the 270th hardest sos for opponents defense.
Davidson's BPI is lower than basketball powerhouses such as La Salle, Denver, Illinois State, Providence...and Dayton. If this game was against Dayton, we'd be getting ready to watch a d!ckslappin'.
Looking at the numbers, this game should not be close.
If Davidson doesn't defend well and fouls a lot, they had better damn well shoot about 60% from three. That will be their only chance to win this game.
Lets look at it another way, which of these teams would you be afraid of:
New Mexico St.
South Dakota St.
Montana
------
Valparaiso
Northwestern St.
Harvard
Those are the (3) teams seeded directly above and below Davidson on the S-curve?
How about another look? Which of these teams would have you worried:
Boise St.
St. Mary's (CA)
Ole Miss
------
Bucknell
La Salle
Middle Tenn. State
Take Davidson and move them up 8 spots on the s-curve to account for the fact that they are supposedly under-seeded, and those are the (3) teams directly above and below.
Match-ups are critical, and MU may well lose this game, but again, who the hell cares? If they lose, they lose. Doesn't mean they aren't good, or even better than Davidson, or 3/4 of the teams in the tournament. It will mean that they lost. If they do, good chance it will not be the biggest upset of the tournament. Heck reading most of the national outlets the last couple days I'm not sure any of us should consider it an upset at all.
I'm with Navin on this one now. If Davidson comes out and shoots lights out from three, which has been MU's weakness, so be it. Then no defensive adjustments have been made all season. Just stay away from stupid fouls, which is even more frustrating.
Its been a great year for these kids and who would have guessed at the beginning of the year that they would be a #3 seed in the NCAA. Not me. So, it is what it is.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 19, 2013, 06:44:24 AM
Last year ESPN didn't even mention Norfolk State in their potential upsets article. They tried to build a formula based on some Cinderellas of the past, but this stuff is just designed to fill space on the site at a time when people are rabid for NCAA info. I wouldn't put any stock in that article, as it seems ESPN's hot upset picks rarely come out. Not saying we couldn't lose this game, but this annual article isn't the place I'd turn for that knowledge.
I'm going to thump my chest for a second - but I know I'm not alone amongst the MU crowd, so I invite others to share in the glory - but many of us called the NFSU upset last year. Frankly, it wasn't a difficult call for any MU fan who had been paying attention; MU and Mizzou were very similar teams last year... similar players, similar talents, similar size, similar pace, similar everything. And so many people were looking forward to a potential MU/Mizzou S16 matchup. But remember that game in the Virgin Islands. Who was that team that gave MU a load of trouble and took them down to the wire? Oh yeah... the same team that Mizzou had to play.
The question here should be not how elite their coach is or how much experience they have... the question should be "who amongst MU's regular season opponents is most similar to Davidson?" I don't know the answer to that, but if I had to venture a guess, I would say they're more like Pitt than they are like Florida.
We may give up some points on open 3's, but based on the stats that have been posted here, I don't expect them to be able to stop us on offense. Our strength is their weakness. If they play man (as it appears they do almost exclusively), we should be able to get to the rim with our superior quickness on the perimeter and our big guys able to seal inside. If they play zone I can't imagine they'll be very effective at it and even if they are, we have played tougher zones and been ok and that should allow us to crash the offensive boards, which is another strength.
Combined with our depth and athleticism, we should be fine if we play even average defense. Hopefully, Buzz will have them motivated and ready to get after it.
Quote from: bilsu on March 18, 2013, 08:34:35 PM
I do not think we have play well the last three games. We are also overseeded at 3. We should of been a 5. However, a 5 should still be a 14.
It's silly to keep saying this. We are not overseeded. We earned a 3 by winning the Big East. We have a good resume with good wins against quality teams. No one cares about your conference tournament results unless you win the tournament. And to say we should be a 5! That's crazy talk. No one would have questioned us as a 4, but no way should we have fallen to a 5. You're saying that we
should be behind not only SLU, MICH, KSU, AND SYR (who just kept losing down the stretch), but also behind one of OKST, VCU, WISC, or UNLV? Baloney.
Imagine how Davidson feels having the inevitable task of playing the Big East co-champ.
Quote from: MDMU04 on March 19, 2013, 09:05:23 AM
If Davidson doesn't defend well and fouls a lot, they had better damn well shoot about 60% from three. That will be their only chance to win this game.
This is the point i keep going back to...
I don't think we would have a chance to beat Miami or IN in a game...if we shoot 60% from 3, we would. As everyone has said DON'T TURN THE BALL OVER! I think it will be close, but still a 7 pt win (if we keep turnovers down)
I expect it to be fairly close through the first half. Davidson will make a decent amount of three pointers to stay in the game, but MU will eventually break away in the second half and crusie to 10pt victory.
Quote from: tower912 on March 19, 2013, 07:13:42 AM
A question asked on the scout board is relevant to this. If this were a regular season game, what would this board be saying about Davidson?
What did we say about Rutgers and St. John's?
MU should win, but I suspect it will be a tight game to the very end. We have a way of doing that.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 19, 2013, 11:30:49 AM
What did we say about Rutgers and St. John's?
MU should win, but I suspect it will be a tight game to the very end. We have a way of doing that.
Conference road games are always tough.
Teams are well scouted and very familiar with each other.
Davidson is "scary" because this is the tournament and the stakes are higher. As a neutral site opponent, they aren't that scary.
I don't exactly know why, but I think MU rolls by 8+ and it's never in doubt.
Quote from: Guns n Ammo on March 19, 2013, 11:36:46 AM
Conference road games are always tough.
Teams are well scouted and very familiar with each other.
Davidson is "scary" because this is the tournament and the stakes are higher. As a neutral site opponent, they aren't that scary.
I don't exactly know why, but I think MU rolls by 8+ and it's never in doubt.
True, but that didn't stop our fans thinking we were going to roll in those games. That's what I was responding to. Am I worried? Hell yes. Do I think we will win? Yes. Would I be surprised if we lost considering some of the clunkers we have...hell no.
Having been to the Washington NCAA game fiasco, watching the Utah State game, attending the Alabama game, etc....I take nothing for granted when we are the better seed come tournament time.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 19, 2013, 11:40:11 AM
True, but that didn't stop our fans thinking we were going to roll in those games. That's what I was responding to. Am I worried? Hell yes. Do I think we will win? Yes. Would I be surprised if we lost considering some of the clunkers we have...hell no.
Having been to the Washington NCAA game fiasco, watching the Utah State game, attending the Alabama game, etc....I take nothing for granted when we are the better seed come tournament time.
Hey! Chicos attended a couple of Marquette's NCAA Tournament games! He must be really important. Three cheers for Chicos!
Hip-hip...
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on March 19, 2013, 11:51:21 AM
Hey! Chicos attended a couple of Marquette's NCAA Tournament games! He must be really important. Three cheers for Chicos!
Hip-hip...
Bizarre response. Yes, I support the Warriors where I can, so do many others here and they have stated it. Go to a few games on my dime...weird since Lenny says I'm not a fan...why would I spend money to attend these games? Weird. Bizarre response by you. Three cheers for you.
Hip-hip...
Detailed Upset Report from ESPN.com
NOT COMPLETELY CRAZY
No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles (81.3) vs. No. 14 Davidson Wildcats (14.6)
Upset chance: 25.3 percent
At first glance, Marquette, a weak 3-seed -- are we really supposed to believe the Golden Eagles are on par with a Florida or Michigan State? -- looks vulnerable. And the Wildcats, who are riding the nation's longest winning streak (17 games) and can stroke it from anywhere (effective FG percentage: 53.3 percent, ranking 28th in the NCAA) seem like a potential Killer. And, hey, maybe some analysts would stop there. But we take you into the depths of the secret sauce, where the chemistry of Giant-Killing bubbles forth second thoughts.
Marquette is excellent on the offensive glass (offensive rebounds on 37.8 percent of missed shots, ranking 22nd) and at defending the perimeter. Davidson doesn't generate steals (8.8 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 258th) or offensive rebounds (ranking 252nd). Comparing their fundamental strengths straight up, the Wildcats would have a 1-in-3 chance of pulling off an upset. Include the factors that have been key to historical Giant-killing and safety, and those odds drop to 1 in 4.
-------------------
Are we really excellent at defending the perimeter? I know as a group we think we aren't, but how do we really stack up? It would have been better if he put our rank in there with that comment.
Also, I have thought since the Crean days that we were an excellent offensive rebounding team and a poorer than we should be defensive rebounding team.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 19, 2013, 11:57:29 AM
Bizarre response. Yes, I support the Warriors where I can, so do many others here and they have stated it. Go to a few games on my dime...weird since Lenny says I'm not a fan...why would I spend money to attend these games? Weird. Bizarre response by you. Three cheers for you.
Hip-hip...
Not sure why it's bizarre. Just mocking yet another instance of you attempting show us that you're a big deal.
Are we really excellent at defending the perimeter? I know as a group we think we aren't, but how do we really stack up? It would have been better if he put our rank in there with that comment.
[/quote]
I'd say they're OK. Ranked 76th in the country and there are a good amount of notable tourney teams ranked behind MU in 3pt defense:
Gonzaga, Ohio St, Ok State, ND, Colorado, Miami, Oklahoma, SLU, Mizzou, Wichita St, Michigan, Butler, Memphis, VCU, Cal, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 19, 2013, 11:40:11 AM
True, but that didn't stop our fans thinking we were going to roll in those games. That's what I was responding to.
I don't recall a lot of people thinking that MU was going to roll in those road games. I could be wrong.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 19, 2013, 11:40:11 AM
True, but that didn't stop our fans thinking we were going to roll in those games. That's what I was responding to. Am I worried? Hell yes. Do I think we will win? Yes. Would I be surprised if we lost considering some of the clunkers we have...hell no.
Having been to the Washington NCAA game fiasco, watching the Utah State game, attending the Alabama game, etc....I take nothing for granted when we are the better seed come tournament time.
I suppose your boy Crean must be worried too, given he lost to Wisconsin twice.
Couldn't this statement be said about many teams this year? I have a hard time believing other boards would be going off the deep end like this one seems to be if they were in the same predicament.
Warriors roll by 10+
People are worried because as a 3 seed you cant justify a loss in a first round game. We are worried that if we dont win that we would never hear the end of it from Bucky fans.
We are also worried because "Experts" picked Davidson in a lot of their brackets. Remember: "Experts" have to pick upsets because it is a no lose proposition. If you get the upset right everyone thinks your a genius, if you dont you take a ribbing for a day but than it goes away. Experts will also tend to pick upsets for teams that they dont think will make a final 4 as those teams getting upset really dont matter to them compared to having to pick against a front runner like Louisville.
Pressure is on Crean because when they lose, Butler fans will never let him hear the end of it.
Quote from: JDuquaine on March 19, 2013, 12:44:29 PM
I suppose your boy Crean must be worried too, given he lost to Wisconsin twice.
Couldn't this statement be said about many teams this year? I have a hard time believing other boards would be going off the deep end like this one seems to be if they were in the same predicament.
Warriors roll by 10+
Not my boy, he is the coach of one of my alma maters and did a great job bringing our alma mater, Marquette, to big boy land again.
I'm sure he is worried or he shouldn't be coaching. Anything can happen. Your team can crap the bed, the other team can be lights out. The best team doesn't always win, we all know that. That's why they play the games.
Quote from: Guns n Ammo on March 19, 2013, 12:17:51 PM
I don't recall a lot of people thinking that MU was going to roll in those road games. I could be wrong.
I was going off the prediction thread for Rutgers...a bunch of folks having us win by double digits on the road I interpreted as a roll....that may be a poor proxy to use. I think we were a bit more inline with the SJU game considering how we played against Rutgers.
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=36641.0
Quote from: TJ on March 19, 2013, 10:09:05 AM
It's silly to keep saying this. We are not overseeded. We earned a 3 by winning the Big East. We have a good resume with good wins against quality teams. No one cares about your conference tournament results unless you win the tournament. And to say we should be a 5! That's crazy talk. No one would have questioned us as a 4, but no way should we have fallen to a 5. You're saying that we should be behind not only SLU, MICH, KSU, AND SYR (who just kept losing down the stretch), but also behind one of OKST, VCU, WISC, or UNLV? Baloney.
Is it? A team that has struggled with UConn, St. John's, Villanova, heck barely beat the likes of LSU, SELA, and NCCU. A team that even has some struggles with cupcakes and seems to have a lack of blowout wins is not a team I look to be a 3 seed. We have some good wins, but one of our wins against Pitt and our win vs Notre Dame came without the respective opposing teams' arguable best player playing healthy. Based on these alone, I think objectively a 5 or 6 seed is where we belong. However, be it as it may that we won those games, and finished the season relatively well, we get a 3 seed (though the fact that we play an underseeded 14 seed tells me they may have done that to make up for the fact that they overseeded us in the first place).
Quote from: statnik on March 19, 2013, 11:01:24 PM
Is it? A team that has struggled with UConn, St. John's, Villanova, heck barely beat the likes of LSU, SELA, and NCCU. A team that even has some struggles with cupcakes and seems to have a lack of blowout wins is not a team I look to be a 3 seed. We have some good wins, but one of our wins against Pitt and our win vs Notre Dame came without the respective opposing teams' arguable best player playing healthy. Based on these alone, I think objectively a 5 or 6 seed is where we belong. However, be it as it may that we won those games, and finished the season relatively well, we get a 3 seed (though the fact that we play an underseeded 14 seed tells me they may have done that to make up for the fact that they overseeded us in the first place).
Your opinions about how they won games have no bearing on the selection committee's process. I agree with your points in general, but they have nothing to do with NCAA seeding. We won the games. End of story. It doesn't matter how we did it. We won the Big East. We deserve our seed.
Instead of agonizing over your opinion of how our season went, compare us to the teams behind us. A 6!!! You're friggin' nuts. You have to find teams to put in front of us to move us down, and every team behind us has more "flaws" than us.
This is getting stupid. I wouldn't comment if you said we deserve a 4, but a friggin' 6?! We don't play in a bubble and get the seed we deserve based on how well our team plays. It's all about how you compare to other teams and our team falls in line at around the 12th best resume. If you're not going to compare us to other teams I guess it's stupid trying to explain this.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 19, 2013, 03:53:34 PM
I was going off the prediction thread for Rutgers...a bunch of folks having us win by double digits on the road I interpreted as a roll....that may be a poor proxy to use. I think we were a bit more inline with the SJU game considering how we played against Rutgers.
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=36641.0
Ah ha.
Totally fair. I don't participate in the predictions threads, so I didn't see this.
And, you're right, I think it's crazy to predict double digit roads wins in conference. I'm not saying it never happens, but most road games are tight affairs because it's tough to win on the road.
Quote from: TJ on March 20, 2013, 09:06:02 AM
Instead of agonizing over your opinion of how our season went, compare us to the teams behind us.
I'll take this even one step further. Why "agonize" over how our season went at all? Even if you think we are over-seeded, and I think we should have been a four rather than a three myself, we still have a decent path to the S16 with two winnable match-ups in front of us.
Look, I'm not worried at all. As President Franklin Roosevelt once said, "The only thing we have to fear....... is fear itself!"
Everything points to the fact that we will beat them handily, though I think they will give us a game at times. That fact alone induces needless worry.
Still, if I wanted to worry, all I have to do is think of a very dark March day in 1978. A defending national champion and what today would be a one seed (and probably overall number 2) went into Indianapolis' Market Square Arena to play an also-ran that, today, would be a 15 or 16 seed. That Defending National Champion got taken down by the 15 or 16 seed in a game that spelled the end of the defending national champion's co-dominance of college basketball. It sent the defending national champion's program into a tailspin that lasted for a decade and a half.
Mitigating factor: We ain't national champions, Buzz ain't Hank and I don't think we're looking past Davidson. Haven't seen too many Marquette "Meet Me in Atlanta" t-shirts..... either, at least not yet!
Quote from: Lennys Tap on March 18, 2013, 02:01:28 PM
I have never seen Davidson play, but here's the reason I'm worried - the guys in Vegas who make a living doing this make us a 4 point favorite, while the other 3s (and 4s) are mostly double digit chalks. Nate Silver gives Davidson a one in three chance to beat us. Hope we breeze, but this game feels like Holy Cross in 2003 or Utah St in 2008 - real taffy pulls.
Yup.
He almost got it right and it was very similar to Holy Cross and Utah State.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/davidson-heartbreaking-collapse-allows-marquette-escape-first-round-214704253--ncaab.html
Oky, now I understand why everyone was so worried.
Quote from: Groin_pull on March 21, 2013, 10:07:33 PM
Oky, now I understand why everyone was so worried.
We have a way of playing down to expectations.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 21, 2013, 11:10:17 PM
We have a way of playing down to expectations.
.
So does that IU grad Alford...I mean Harvard doesn't even give athletics scholarships. One of the all-time legendary NCAA choke jobs. Three Seed goes down in flames to a guy fired or moved on from his last two jobs. Wow, just wow...that is a peeing dog.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 21, 2013, 11:10:17 PM
We have a way of playing down to expectations.
We were a 3 (in some places 3.5) point favorite. So we played a basket under (or Davidson played a basket over) expectations. I know you think Marquette played like crap. I guess you think Davidson did too, since the game finished pretty much the way Vegas figured. We didn't see the same game.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on March 21, 2013, 11:22:04 PM
.
So does that IU grad Alford...I mean Harvard doesn't even give athletics scholarships. One of the all-time legendary NCAA choke jobs. Three Seed goes down in flames to a guy fired or moved on from his last two jobs. Wow, just wow...that is a peeing dog.
C'mon doc - it's CHOKING dog that pees itself. Get it right or pay the price.
BTW - love the "wow, just wow" and legendary reference.
Quote from: Jajuannaman on March 21, 2013, 11:56:07 PM
C'mon doc - it's CHOKING dog that pees itself. Get it right or pay the price.
BTW - love the "wow, just wow" and legendary reference.
Biologically, one cannot choke and pee at the same time. Multi-tasking is a fallacy.