Why is everyone so worried?

[Montana Warrior]

If we score more than they do, we win.

Brilliant....succinct and to the point!

[chapman]

We've followed up every loss so far with at least two wins.  We'll be on track. 

Wait a second... we're not playing Wisconsin in the 2nd round, are we?

Not inbred looking enough.

[reinko]

Yeah, Buzz has got this.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Unless Steph curry is somehow still playing for Davidson I'm not worried.

[Lennys Tap]

I have never seen Davidson play, but here's the reason I'm worried - the guys in Vegas who make a living doing this make us a 4 point favorite, while the other 3s (and 4s) are mostly double digit chalks. Nate Silver gives Davidson a one in three chance to beat us. Hope we breeze, but this game feels like Holy Cross in 2003 or Utah St in 2008 - real taffy pulls.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

In terms of Vegas this seems like such a trap bet. A lot of people are going to be taking Davidson and the points because of the media and its a trendy pick. Vegas knows this and is taking advantage of it. Vegas plays the betters not the teams.

[Lennys Tap]

In terms of Vegas this seems like such a trap bet. A lot of people are going to be taking Davidson and the points because of the media and its a trendy pick. Vegas knows this and is taking advantage of it. Vegas plays the betters not the teams.

Vegas lines are set almost entirely on power rankings. they don't care about a "trendy" pick, since the professionals can absorb that kind of action in a heartbeat. They will sometimes adjust a line (slightly) in favor of a hot team, and Davidson, with 17 wins in a row by an average of 18 points, is certainly hot.

[21rooster]

Everytime we see a shaky performance, people assume it will be a wake-up call, but it oaks not.  The team plays too lackadaisical, that's why we have turnover issues.

When was the last time you watched this year's team lose two games in a row???  Yeah, that's what I thought. 

[RawdogDX]

It's amazing how many people here go off the deep end at tourney time. Other fan bases are supremely confident in their team...but not here. We could be playing my high school's JV team, and there would still be people here worried about whether MU could survive and advance.

That is because all of the other three seeds aren't being picked to lose by every other analyst out there.

[Eldon]

Your high school JV team has some great shooters, and MU always struggles against teams like that. Also, they're coached by a legend.

Teal?

[21rooster]

That is because all of the other three seeds aren't being picked to lose by every other analyst out there.

Where did those same analysts pick Marquette to finish this year?  Most people on this board have watched a lot more Marquette basketball than the analysts, and we've seen them figure out a way to win.  And if I have to take an analyst's opinion, I'll choose Bilas over almost anyone else. 

[Markusquette]

We always have different guys stepping up but if all of our players are clicking it shouldn't be an issue.  I think Junior, Vander and Davante show up this game and if guys like Jamil and Chris do too it should be a pretty easy W.  Thankfully Jamil's really come on more toward the end of this year so I hope he has a big game.  Someone with his length and athleticism should be able to take advantage of their weaker defense.

[CTWarrior]

We worry because we're fans and that's what fans do.  My hbrain says we should win, but I'm still nervous about the game.  Despite all the empirical evidence to the contrary, I just don't feel as good about this team as I did about last year's team.

The guy who figures upset likelihood on ESPN.com gives Davidson a 1 in 4 chance of knocking us off. 

(8) No. 14 Davidson Wildcats versus No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles

Upset chance: 25.3 percent

What you need to know: The Wildcats can shoot from anywhere and hardly ever turn the ball over.

They think we're the 8th most likely team to lose a game with a seed differential of 5 or more.  The schools more likely to lose than us are:  UCLA (74%), Memphis (53% or 67%, depending on opponent), Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Butler and VCU, in that order.  The full explanations for the East aren't out yet.

For comparison's sake, he gives Ole Miss a 22.9% chance of knocking of Wisconsin

[BM1090]

I was worried, but Pomeroy has us as a significantly better offensive and defensive team. Davidson has the 40th ranked offense and 103rd ranked defense. Marquette is 17th and 50th.

[Pakuni]

We worry because we're fans and that's what fans do.  My hbrain says we should win, but I'm still nervous about the game.  Despite all the empirical evidence to the contrary, I just don't feel as good about this team as I did about last year's team.

The guy who figures upset likelihood on ESPN.com gives Davidson a 1 in 4 chance of knocking us off. 

(8) No. 14 Davidson Wildcats versus No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles

Upset chance: 25.3 percent

What you need to know: The Wildcats can shoot from anywhere and hardly ever turn the ball over.

They think we're the 8th most likely team to lose a game with a seed differential of 5 or more.  The schools more likely to lose than us are:  UCLA (74%), Memphis (53% or 67%, depending on opponent), Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Butler and VCU, in that order.  The full explanations for the East aren't out yet.

For comparison's sake, he gives Ole Miss a 22.9% chance of knocking of Wisconsin

Statistically, the bold is accurate, but consider the competition.
Against some of the better teams (or at least better than most of their conference foes) on their schedule, Davidson has had turnover issues.

vs Duke .... 14 turnovers
vs Richmond .... 18 turnovers
vs Gonzaga .... 13 turnovers
vs Charlotte .... 13 turnovers
vs W. Virginia .... 20 turnovers

[NavinRJohnson]

(8) No. 14 Davidson Wildcats versus No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles

Upset chance: 25.3 percent

Well, I believe the 3 seed historically has lost 18% of the time, so I would consider that pretty close.

[GoldenZebra]

The clunker happened vs Notre Dame. No way we lose 2 in a row, and the team is gonna be fired up given its the first game of the tourney.

[bilsu]

I do not think we have play well the last three games. We are also overseeded at 3. We should of been a 5. However, a 5 should still be a 14.

[jsglow]

I don't know for sure but don't we all think Buzz is reminding the guys that 'they're not any good'?  We play way better with a chip.  And I'd be really worried if all the talk was about an upcoming game against Butler.

[real chili 83]

I don't know for sure but don't we all think Buzz is reminding the guys that 'they're not any good'?  We play way better with a chip.  And I'd be really worried if all the talk was about an upcoming game against Butler.

Buzz was on point with that today on CBS sports on Rome's show.  Classic Buzz.

We suck, Vegas hates us, we pee'd down our leg again, everyone is picking us to lose....

Murray State, I mean Davidson, wont know what hit them.

[mr.MUskie]

Damn, even all the coaches are Traditionals.

[Goose]

Feel quite good that Buzz will have the team ready for opening weekend. Was very worried going into BET because of how we played in previous couple of games. Buzz has proven to have the guys ready everytime it looked like reason to worry. While I do not think we are a great team, I do think we are dangerous because of ability to play 9 deep if needed. Actually feel very confident we see second weekend again this year.

[brewcity77]

We worry because we're fans and that's what fans do.  My hbrain says we should win, but I'm still nervous about the game.  Despite all the empirical evidence to the contrary, I just don't feel as good about this team as I did about last year's team.

The guy who figures upset likelihood on ESPN.com gives Davidson a 1 in 4 chance of knocking us off. 

(8) No. 14 Davidson Wildcats versus No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles

Upset chance: 25.3 percent

What you need to know: The Wildcats can shoot from anywhere and hardly ever turn the ball over.

They think we're the 8th most likely team to lose a game with a seed differential of 5 or more.  The schools more likely to lose than us are:  UCLA (74%), Memphis (53% or 67%, depending on opponent), Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Butler and VCU, in that order.  The full explanations for the East aren't out yet.

For comparison's sake, he gives Ole Miss a 22.9% chance of knocking of Wisconsin

Last year ESPN didn't even mention Norfolk State in their potential upsets article. They tried to build a formula based on some Cinderellas of the past, but this stuff is just designed to fill space on the site at a time when people are rabid for NCAA info. I wouldn't put any stock in that article, as it seems ESPN's hot upset picks rarely come out. Not saying we couldn't lose this game, but this annual article isn't the place I'd turn for that knowledge.

[tower912]

A question asked on the scout board is relevant to this.   If this were a regular season game, what would this board be saying about Davidson?

[MU82]

As I have written in other threads, I fully understand why Davidson is a common upset pick. I live in Charlotte and have seen Davidson a lot.

They are experienced, well-coached, shoot 3-pointers well and have two players (Cohen and Brooks) who will get serious NBA consideration. They come into the tournament on a long winning streak and played Gonzaga, New Mexico and Duke pretty tough. It doesn't hurt that romantic types still remember the Steph Curry team's run.

Their weaknesses -- particularly, they don't play defense particularly well and they are foul-prone -- mesh well with our strengths. So yes, we should beat them. But I do believe that Davidson is better than the typical No. 14 seed.

Plus, I admit that I also still have almost-nightmares from our almost-loss to No. 14 Holy Cross in 2003, when we just so happened to have the best player in Marquette history, two other NBA players and a legit big man. I'm guessing that if Scoop were around back then, a post would have been started with the subject: "Why is everyone so worried?"

So yes, I do worry.