Why is everyone so worried?

[real chili 83]

A question asked on the scout board is relevant to this.   If this were a regular season game, what would this board be saying about Davidson?

Ding ding ding.

+1

[MDMU04]

Their weaknesses -- particularly, they don't play defense particularly well and they are foul-prone -- mesh well with our strengths. So yes, we should beat them.

According to Pomeroy, we have the 17th most efficient offense in the country. We also did that playing against the hardest strength of schedule of all division 1 teams in terms of opponents defensive efficiency.

Davidson has the 40th most efficient offense in the country, but did it against the 270th hardest sos for opponents defense.

Davidson's BPI is lower than basketball powerhouses such as La Salle, Denver, Illinois State, Providence...and Dayton.  If this game was against Dayton, we'd be getting ready to watch a d!ckslappin'.

Looking at the numbers, this game should not be close.

If Davidson doesn't defend well and fouls a lot, they had better damn well shoot about 60% from three. That will be their only chance to win this game.

[NavinRJohnson]

Lets look at it another way, which of these teams would you be afraid of:

New Mexico St.
South Dakota St.
Montana
------
Valparaiso
Northwestern St.
Harvard

Those are the (3) teams seeded directly above and below Davidson on the S-curve?

How about another look? Which of these teams would have you worried:

Boise St.
St. Mary's (CA)
Ole Miss
------
Bucknell
La Salle
Middle Tenn. State

Take Davidson and move them up 8 spots on the s-curve to account for the fact that they are supposedly under-seeded, and those are the (3) teams directly above and below.

Match-ups are critical, and MU may well lose this game, but again, who the hell cares? If they lose, they lose. Doesn't mean they aren't good, or even better than Davidson, or 3/4 of the teams in the tournament. It will mean that they lost. If they do, good chance it will not be the biggest upset of the tournament. Heck reading most of the national outlets the last couple days I'm not sure any of us should consider it an upset at all.

[nyg]

I'm with Navin on this one now.  If Davidson comes out and shoots lights out from three, which has been MU's weakness, so be it.  Then no defensive adjustments have been made all season.  Just stay away from stupid fouls, which is even more frustrating.

Its been a great year for these kids and who would have guessed at the beginning of the year that they would be a #3 seed in the NCAA.  Not me.  So, it is what it is.

[Benny B]

Last year ESPN didn't even mention Norfolk State in their potential upsets article. They tried to build a formula based on some Cinderellas of the past, but this stuff is just designed to fill space on the site at a time when people are rabid for NCAA info. I wouldn't put any stock in that article, as it seems ESPN's hot upset picks rarely come out. Not saying we couldn't lose this game, but this annual article isn't the place I'd turn for that knowledge.

I'm going to thump my chest for a second - but I know I'm not alone amongst the MU crowd, so I invite others to share in the glory - but many of us called the NFSU upset last year.  Frankly, it wasn't a difficult call for any MU fan who had been paying attention; MU and Mizzou were very similar teams last year... similar players, similar talents, similar size, similar pace, similar everything.  And so many people were looking forward to a potential MU/Mizzou S16 matchup.  But remember that game in the Virgin Islands.  Who was that team that gave MU a load of trouble and took them down to the wire?  Oh yeah... the same team that Mizzou had to play.

The question here should be not how elite their coach is or how much experience they have... the question should be "who amongst MU's regular season opponents is most similar to Davidson?"  I don't know the answer to that, but if I had to venture a guess, I would say they're more like Pitt than they are like Florida.

[ATL MU Warrior]

We may give up some points on open 3's, but based on the stats that have been posted here, I don't expect them to be able to stop us on offense.  Our strength is their weakness.  If they play man (as it appears they do almost exclusively), we should be able to get to the rim with our superior quickness on the perimeter and our big guys able to seal inside.  If they play zone I can't imagine they'll be very effective at it and even if they are, we have played tougher zones and been ok and that should allow us to crash the offensive boards, which is another strength. 

Combined with our depth and athleticism, we should be fine if we play even average defense.  Hopefully, Buzz will have them motivated and ready to get after it.

[TJ]

I do not think we have play well the last three games. We are also overseeded at 3. We should of been a 5. However, a 5 should still be a 14.

It's silly to keep saying this.  We are not overseeded.  We earned a 3 by winning the Big East.  We have a good resume with good wins against quality teams.  No one cares about your conference tournament results unless you win the tournament.  And to say we should be a 5!  That's crazy talk.  No one would have questioned us as a 4, but no way should we have fallen to a 5.  You're saying that we should be behind not only SLU, MICH, KSU, AND SYR (who just kept losing down the stretch), but also behind one of OKST, VCU, WISC, or UNLV?  Baloney.

[4everwarriors]

Imagine how Davidson feels having the inevitable task of playing the Big East co-champ.

[robmufan]

If Davidson doesn't defend well and fouls a lot, they had better damn well shoot about 60% from three. That will be their only chance to win this game.

This is the point i keep going back to...

I don't think we would have a chance to beat Miami or IN in a game...if we shoot 60% from 3, we would.  As everyone has said DON'T TURN THE BALL OVER! I think it will be close, but still a 7 pt win (if we keep turnovers down)

[4th and State]

I expect it to be fairly close through the first half.  Davidson will make a decent amount of three pointers to stay in the game, but MU will eventually break away in the second half and crusie to 10pt victory.

[ChicosBailBonds]

A question asked on the scout board is relevant to this.   If this were a regular season game, what would this board be saying about Davidson?

What did we say about Rutgers and St. John's? 

MU should win, but I suspect it will be a tight game to the very end.  We have a way of doing that.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

What did we say about Rutgers and St. John's? 

MU should win, but I suspect it will be a tight game to the very end.  We have a way of doing that.

Conference road games are always tough.

Teams are well scouted and very familiar with each other.

Davidson is "scary" because this is the tournament and the stakes are higher. As a neutral site opponent, they aren't that scary.

I don't exactly know why, but I think MU rolls by 8+ and it's never in doubt.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Conference road games are always tough.

Teams are well scouted and very familiar with each other.

Davidson is "scary" because this is the tournament and the stakes are higher. As a neutral site opponent, they aren't that scary.

I don't exactly know why, but I think MU rolls by 8+ and it's never in doubt.

True, but that didn't stop our fans thinking we were going to roll in those games.  That's what I was responding to.  Am I worried?  Hell yes.  Do I think we will win?  Yes.  Would I be surprised if we lost considering some of the clunkers we have...hell no.

Having been to the Washington NCAA game fiasco, watching the Utah State game, attending the Alabama game, etc....I take nothing for granted when we are the better seed come tournament time.

[MerrittsMustache]

True, but that didn't stop our fans thinking we were going to roll in those games.  That's what I was responding to.  Am I worried?  Hell yes.  Do I think we will win?  Yes.  Would I be surprised if we lost considering some of the clunkers we have...hell no.

Having been to the Washington NCAA game fiasco, watching the Utah State game, attending the Alabama game, etc....I take nothing for granted when we are the better seed come tournament time.

Hey! Chicos attended a couple of Marquette's NCAA Tournament games! He must be really important. Three cheers for Chicos!

Hip-hip...

[ChicosBailBonds]

Hey! Chicos attended a couple of Marquette's NCAA Tournament games! He must be really important. Three cheers for Chicos!

Hip-hip...

Bizarre response. Yes, I support the Warriors where I can, so do many others here and they have stated it. Go to a few games on my dime...weird since Lenny says I'm not a fan...why would I spend money to attend these games?  Weird.   Bizarre response by you.  Three cheers for you. 

Hip-hip...

[CTWarrior]

Detailed Upset Report from ESPN.com

NOT COMPLETELY CRAZY

No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles (81.3) vs. No. 14 Davidson Wildcats (14.6)

Upset chance: 25.3 percent

At first glance, Marquette, a weak 3-seed -- are we really supposed to believe the Golden Eagles are on par with a Florida or Michigan State? -- looks vulnerable. And the Wildcats, who are riding the nation's longest winning streak (17 games) and can stroke it from anywhere (effective FG percentage: 53.3 percent, ranking 28th in the NCAA) seem like a potential Killer. And, hey, maybe some analysts would stop there. But we take you into the depths of the secret sauce, where the chemistry of Giant-Killing bubbles forth second thoughts.

Marquette is excellent on the offensive glass (offensive rebounds on 37.8 percent of missed shots, ranking 22nd) and at defending the perimeter. Davidson doesn't generate steals (8.8 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 258th) or offensive rebounds (ranking 252nd). Comparing their fundamental strengths straight up, the Wildcats would have a 1-in-3 chance of pulling off an upset. Include the factors that have been key to historical Giant-killing and safety, and those odds drop to 1 in 4.

-------------------

Are we really excellent at defending the perimeter?  I know as a group we think we aren't, but how do we really stack up?  It would have been better if he put our rank in there with that comment.  

Also, I have thought since the Crean days that we were an excellent offensive rebounding team and a poorer than we should be defensive rebounding team.

[MerrittsMustache]

Bizarre response. Yes, I support the Warriors where I can, so do many others here and they have stated it. Go to a few games on my dime...weird since Lenny says I'm not a fan...why would I spend money to attend these games?  Weird.   Bizarre response by you.  Three cheers for you. 

Hip-hip...

Not sure why it's bizarre. Just mocking yet another instance of you attempting show us that you're a big deal.

[LAZER]

Are we really excellent at defending the perimeter?  I know as a group we think we aren't, but how do we really stack up?  It would have been better if he put our rank in there with that comment.  
[/quote]

I'd say they're OK.  Ranked 76th in the country and there are a good amount of notable tourney teams ranked behind MU in 3pt defense:

Gonzaga, Ohio St, Ok State, ND, Colorado, Miami, Oklahoma, SLU, Mizzou, Wichita St, Michigan, Butler, Memphis, VCU, Cal, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

True, but that didn't stop our fans thinking we were going to roll in those games.  That's what I was responding to.

I don't recall a lot of people thinking that MU was going to roll in those road games. I could be wrong.

[JD]

True, but that didn't stop our fans thinking we were going to roll in those games.  That's what I was responding to.  Am I worried?  Hell yes.  Do I think we will win?  Yes.  Would I be surprised if we lost considering some of the clunkers we have...hell no.
Having been to the Washington NCAA game fiasco, watching the Utah State game, attending the Alabama game, etc....I take nothing for granted when we are the better seed come tournament time.

I suppose your boy Crean must be worried too, given he lost to Wisconsin twice.

Couldn't this statement be said about many teams this year?  I have a hard time believing other boards would be going off the deep end like this one seems to be if they were in the same predicament.

Warriors roll by 10+

[KenoshaWarrior]

People are worried because as a 3 seed you cant justify a loss in a first round game.  We are worried that if we dont win that we would never hear the end of it from Bucky fans.   
We are also worried because "Experts" picked Davidson in a lot of their brackets.   Remember: "Experts" have to pick upsets because it is a no lose proposition.  If you get the upset right everyone thinks your a genius, if you dont you take a ribbing for a day but than it goes away.    Experts will also tend to pick upsets for teams that they dont think will make a final 4 as those teams getting upset really dont matter to them compared to having to pick against a front runner like Louisville.

[4everwarriors]

Pressure is on Crean because when they lose, Butler fans will never let him hear the end of it.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I suppose your boy Crean must be worried too, given he lost to Wisconsin twice.

Couldn't this statement be said about many teams this year?  I have a hard time believing other boards would be going off the deep end like this one seems to be if they were in the same predicament.

Warriors roll by 10+

Not my boy, he is the coach of one of my alma maters and did a great job bringing our alma mater, Marquette, to big boy land again.

I'm sure he is worried or he shouldn't be coaching.  Anything can happen.  Your team can crap the bed, the other team can be lights out.  The best team doesn't always win, we all know that.  That's why they play the games.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I don't recall a lot of people thinking that MU was going to roll in those road games. I could be wrong.

I was going off the prediction thread for Rutgers...a bunch of folks having us win by double digits on the road I interpreted as a roll....that may be a poor proxy to use.  I think we were a bit more inline with the SJU game considering how we played against Rutgers.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=36641.0

[statnik]

It's silly to keep saying this.  We are not overseeded.  We earned a 3 by winning the Big East.  We have a good resume with good wins against quality teams.  No one cares about your conference tournament results unless you win the tournament.  And to say we should be a 5!  That's crazy talk.  No one would have questioned us as a 4, but no way should we have fallen to a 5.  You're saying that we should be behind not only SLU, MICH, KSU, AND SYR (who just kept losing down the stretch), but also behind one of OKST, VCU, WISC, or UNLV?  Baloney.

Is it?  A team that has struggled with UConn, St. John's, Villanova, heck barely beat the likes of LSU, SELA, and NCCU.  A team that even has some struggles with cupcakes and seems to have a lack of blowout wins is not a team I look to be a 3 seed.  We have some good wins, but one of our wins against Pitt and our win vs Notre Dame came without the respective opposing teams' arguable best player playing healthy.  Based on these alone, I think objectively a 5 or 6 seed is where we belong.  However, be it as it may that we won those games, and finished the season relatively well, we get a 3 seed (though the fact that we play an underseeded 14 seed tells me they may have done that to make up for the fact that they overseeded us in the first place).