Coming at this as a Tigers fan, I am not afraid of the Yankees. Sure, they could beat the Tigers, but the way Verlander and Fister are pitching, I think we have a legit shot. The Yankees beat Verlander twice early, but he found his command and is 22-2 since he last faced them. What will Tampa and St Louis have in the emotional tank? Will momentum carry them, or will the emotions of the last few weeks finally take their toll? Brewers/D-backs is very interesting. The Brewers look better on paper and how long can Gibson keep the D-backs playing to the limits of their ability? So, I will predict that Detroit and Texas, and Philadelphia and Milwaukee move on.
D'backs won the season series against the Brewers this year, so I'm surprised at the confidence coming out of Brewer's Nation. I, as a Brewers fan, am happy to be in the Playoffs again and not winning this first series would be a disappointment.
I'm more afraid of playing STL than I am PHI, honestly. STL has turned into a buzzsaw.
From growing up in Detroit and having gone to MU I am rooting for a Tigers vs. Brewers World Series, which I think is very likely. I feel Detroit faces their toughest matchup right away so if they beat the Yanks then they will have all the momentum in the world to avdance past the ALCS.
The Brewers though will breeze through Arizona and then be matched up against the Phillies in what could be the best series of the whole playoffs (STL will run out of gas). I'm definitly going to get back to Milwookie though to take in the atmosphere.
However it turns out I am excited to finally be interested in baseball again (I'm a Cubs fan so I gave up at the allstar break)
Apparently, so did the Cubs. Fister actually has better numbers than Verlander over the last 6 weeks. Great pick up, I don't think anyone can realistically say they saw him pitching this well. He has been pitching like a 6'8 Maddox; running and cutting his fastball, not walking anyone, all from that 6'8 arm slot. I hope he can keep it up.
Quote from: tower912 on September 30, 2011, 11:08:19 AM
Coming at this as a Tigers fan, I am not afraid of the Yankees. Sure, they could beat the Tigers, but the way Verlander and Fister are pitching, I think we have a legit shot. The Yankees beat Verlander twice early, but he found his command and is 22-2 since he last faced them. What will Tampa and St Louis have in the emotional tank? Will momentum carry them, or will the emotions of the last few weeks finally take their toll? Brewers/D-backs is very interesting. The Brewers look better on paper and how long can Gibson keep the D-backs playing to the limits of their ability? So, I will predict that Detroit and Texas, and Philadelphia and Milwaukee move on.
The DBacks are a scary team. Kennedy is a legitimate top-line starter and that little offense that could just keeps churning out runs. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this go 5 games. I do think the Brewers come out on top, just because Greinke is phenomenal, Gallardo has been lights out lately, and our offense should just be better than theirs. I also think the playoff experience of two years ago and this team playing hard for Prince will put a jolt into them.
StL/Philly is going to be a great series, I think. The Cards have a much better offense than Philly, and I think, in a five game series, the advantages of Lee/Halladay/Hamels aren't as pronounced. Shrink it to a five game series and Carpenter/Garcia isn't really that much worse, considering the Phillies can't do
anything against lefties (Garcia). Even so, I still think Philly win both Lee and Hallday's starts in Philly, and finish up in the 4th game in St. Louis.
I agree, I'm not terrified of the Yankees either. Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball this year, and Fister has been on a tear... the Yankees can't match up with that. Sabathia/Verlander is going to be epic tonight, but then who for the Yankees? A good rookie but still a rookie in Ivan Nova and... Freddy Garcia? Tigers can do damage there.
I also think the Rangers take care of the Rays. The Rangers are just sooo balanced on offense, and the Rays played decently down the stretch, but lets not kid ourselves: they are in because the Red Sox absolutely blew it. Its not like the Rays had some truly incredible stretch run.
Quote from: cbowe3 on September 30, 2011, 11:36:26 AM
From growing up in Detroit and having gone to MU I am rooting for a Tigers vs. Brewers World Series, which I think is very likely. I feel Detroit faces their toughest matchup right away so if they beat the Yanks then they will have all the momentum in the world to avdance past the ALCS.
In perusing the net late last night and early this morning, Yankees vs. Phillies is - obviously - the most popular WS prediction amongst the pundits. But Tigers vs. Brewers looks to be the next most popular.
Seems somewhat intuitive if you think about it. Pundits are very simplistic... predictions don't carry much, if any, meaningful analysis. So that leaves them five options upon which to base a prediction:
* Overall records: Phillies & Yankees -- pretty obvious choice.
* Pitching: Phillies & the Rays -- no one ever picks the team who snuck in on the last day to make it to the very end. See 'Packers, 2010 Playoffs'
* Offense: Rangers & Cards -- All we hear about is pitching, pitching, pitching. No one in their right mind is going to pick the mashers.
* Sabermetrics: N/A. This $#*+ doesn't work in the postseason.
* Balance: Tigers & Brewers -- I suppose you call this the dark horse prediction; however, sometimes balance is rendered meaningless when up against a mammoth. For example, when my two year old gets on the teeter-totter opposite of me, there is no balance --- I call the shots, and he's entirely at my mercy. But if I'm not paying attention, he'll slam his end down just as I'm getting on, paralyzing me to the point where he could have his way while I'm preoccupied trying to assess whether he's going to have any more siblings.
Quote from: Skatastrophy on September 30, 2011, 11:30:19 AM
D'backs won the season series against the Brewers this year, so I'm surprised at the confidence coming out of Brewer's Nation.
Completely irrelevant. AZ was in Milwaukee Jul 4-6, Milwaukee went to AZ July 18-21. Had the season ended July 31, then you might have a point; however...
Rewind to Jul 4. Even though Marcum had belted a grand slam, K-Loe gave up the lead in the eight inning, and the Brewers went on to fall 8-6, splitting the next two for their first home series loss on the season. Two significant events would occur before they met again:
A few days later, K-Loe is usurped by K-Rod, and on Jul 15, Rickie Weeks hit lead-off for - quite possibly - the last time in his career.
Now skip ahead to the series in AZ. The Brewers are shut-out by Kennedy in the fourth game, but not only did they still earn a split in the series, they went 5-6 on that west coast road trip. Not a huge deal on the surface, but lest we forget, Milwaukee was a mere 18-31 on the road going into that series. As a matter of perspective, Boston was 1.5 games ahead of the Spankees, and AZ was 3.5 behind the Giants at that point as well. Fat lot of good that did them.
Milwaukee would go on to finish the season 43-19, and jyet... it pains me to see that even their 21-11 road record since hasn't silenced the naysayers who are still today spouting off about the Brewers inability to win on the road.
In other words, the season series between the Snakes and Crew could have been eons ago. It's a whole new season now, and even an Astros fan isn't going to find anything not to like about Gallardo-Marcum-Greinke-Wolf vs. Kennedy-Collmenter-Hudson-Saunders. Plus, the Brewers are healthy, which may not be a big deal if you consider Willie Bloomquist an upgrade over Stephen Drew; but bear in mind that Justin Upton took a couple bumps to the noggin last week and didn't exactly impress upon his return Wednesday night.
AZ's best chance is to win 2 with Kennedy and 1 in between somewhere. Unfortunately for the Snakes, Gallardo will be going opposite Kennedy in Games 1 and 5 (if necessary). In two games this year, Yo gave up 8 hits and 2 earned runs (admittedly my only concern in that they were both HR's) over 13 innings against AZ. He struck out 12 and walked 2. I don't care if you have Cy Young himself on the mound, if I were Kirk Gibson, the thought would cross my mind to concede Game 1 and save Kennedy for Game 2 in the hopes that it would nearly guarantee taking the series back to AZ 1-1 and pray to Jobu (like a Mormon who doesn't want BYU in the Big 12) that the Brewers revert to their first-half road woes.
If AZ can stretch it to a 5-game series and pitch their CY candidate twice, they may have a shot at pulling the upset, but even if Milwaukee's future CY candidate doesn't take the W in Game 1, you've got a heated-up offense that boasts an on-fire Braun and Fielder over the last week (not to mention that even McGehee is hitting .300 against AZ this year) going against an offense that marquees Upton, Montero, the player formerly known as Aaron Hill, a supporting cast that could make Geoff Jenkins look consistent, and no Marquis.
Dropping the season series 4-3 against AZ is a pittance next to the blatant reasons the Brewers should win this series. Such is why I am looking forward to the Crew walking through Sky Harbor airport next week (the Gen Aviation terminal, any way) and boarding Air Tran Flight #5711 non-stop to Philly.
Verlander was a stud last night and you could tell that Sabathia was affected by that delay from game 1. I think the Tigers can finish them off tonight with the Yanks sending AJ Burnett to the mound, who everyone knows is the definition of inconsistency.
Pocello isnt exactly an ace, but he can manage a game and let the offense/crowd take over. I think, that looking forward, the Tigers have to win tonight not only because going back to New York would suck, but winning would allow them to rest which is something they need after playing 5 days in a row.
Also I think the Brewers bust out the brooms tonight for the sweep.
Quote from: cbowe3 on October 04, 2011, 11:10:32 AM
Verlander was a stud last night and you could tell that Sabathia was affected by that delay from game 1. I think the Tigers can finish them off tonight with the Yanks sending AJ Burnett to the mound, who everyone knows is the definition of inconsistency.
Pocello isnt exactly an ace, but he can manage a game and let the offense/crowd take over. I think, that looking forward, the Tigers have to win tonight not only because going back to New York would suck, but winning would allow them to rest which is something they need after playing 5 days in a row.
Also I think the Brewers bust out the brooms tonight for the sweep.
the definition of inconsistency was the strike zone last night.
I agree. That ump should be ashamed of squeezing Verlander like that.
Quote from: tower912 on October 04, 2011, 03:29:53 PM
I agree. That ump should be ashamed of squeezing Verlander like that.
You are insane if you think that was a consistently called game.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneplot.php?pitchSel=all&game=gid_2011_10_03_nyamlb_detmlb_1/&sp_type=1&s_type=7
Quote from: jfmu on October 04, 2011, 04:33:26 PM
You are insane if you think that was a consistently called game.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneplot.php?pitchSel=all&game=gid_2011_10_03_nyamlb_detmlb_1/&sp_type=1&s_type=7
That's not too bad for a human-called game. Especially when you're looking at data points in 2-D for a 3-D game.
Whiners are gonna whine, though.
I have no horse in the race but I do find umpiring to be very influential especially in a short series.
"The main item that jumps for me is that the Yankees and Tigers start with the umpire with the smallest strike zone (Gerry Davis) and then move to the two umpires with the largest strike zones (Tony Randazzo and Eric Cooper). "
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/umpires-of-the-lds/
I will admit that Verlander pitched a hell of a game but when close to 50% of JV's called strikes were out of the zone I have a problem with it. Especially because it wasn't called on the other end.
Davis is known for a tiny strike zone. Probably 10 times I muttered something about Yankees getting all of the calls and 10 times I went pheew. I thought he consistently favored the hitters. Maybe he didn't share ESPN's overt east coast bias. ::)
i wasnt paying attention closely enough to have an opinion on the game-long strike zone, but i do remember the ump not giving valverde the called third strike on jeter to end the game. that pitch was one of the best pitches i'd seen all night.
Quote from: jfmu on October 04, 2011, 05:14:42 PM
I will admit that Verlander pitched a hell of a game but when close to 50% of JV's called strikes were out of the zone I have a problem with it. Especially because it wasn't called on the other end.
But if you look at that plot, the ump called the outside (for right handed hitters) pitch
fairly consistently for both pitchers. Verlander just did a great job taking advantage of it. For the most part, pitches that were close and outside were called strikes...no matter who threw them. Three very close outside pitches were called balls for Detroit, two were called balls for NY. Honestly, the plot shows a similar thing for the high pitches.
I'm not saying that the umpire did a good job, but the plot that you linked doesn't really show that he was inconsistent. The plot shows that if you pitched just outside or just high, you were more than likely going to get the call, irrespective of what team you were pitching for. It also shows that he wasn't calling the inside strike for either team. All in all, with the exception of just a couple of pitches (one really low pitch called a strike that favored NY; one low strike that wasn't called that favored NY; and one outside pitch called a strike that favored Detroit) , I think that plot shows a fairly consistent game.
I didn't watch the game, and I don't care about either team. But part of a pitcher's job is to identify where the ump is calling strikes, identify the outer limits of what he can get away with, and them pitch to those spots. The plot suggests to me that Detroit did a better job of that than NY. If the ump is giving the outside and slightly high pitch, throw it there. The plot shows that the NY pitchers were missing close on the low and inside pitches...two locations that the ump wasn't giving to either team. Stop throwing there.
Hey, I have been thinking about this...
The Brewers are pitching Randy Wolf tonight...and leaving Gallardo for a potential start on Friday. Should they be pitching Gallardo on three-days rest tonight, and coming back with Greinke on regular rest on Friday? So these are the two scenarios:
What they are doing:
Wednesday: Wolf
Friday: Gallardo
Sunday: Greinke (road if Philly)
Monday: Marcum
Wednesday: Gallardo
Thursday: Wolf
My suggestion:
Wednesday - Gallardo (short rest...everyone else on regular rest)
Friday - Greinke (home)
Sunday - Marcum
Monday - Gallardo
Wednesday - Greinke (home if philly)
Thursday - Wolf
I think my idea is better. ;)
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 05, 2011, 09:25:13 AM
Hey, I have been thinking about this...
The Brewers are pitching Randy Wolf tonight...and leaving Gallardo for a potential start on Friday. Should they be pitching Gallardo on three-days rest tonight, and coming back with Greinke on regular rest on Friday? So these are the two scenarios:
What they are doing:
Wednesday: Wolf
Friday: Gallardo
Sunday: Greinke (road if Philly)
Monday: Marcum
Wednesday: Gallardo
Thursday: Wolf
My suggestion:
Wednesday - Gallardo (short rest...everyone else on regular rest)
Friday - Greinke (home)
Sunday - Marcum
Monday - Gallardo
Wednesday - Greinke (home if philly)
Thursday - Wolf
I think my idea is better. ;)
It's been contemplated. Arizona has also contemplated pitching Kennedy tonight as well. But the last thing you want to be doing is risk burning out your 1 and 2 by pitching them both on three-days rest in the NLDS... you might have a greater need for one of those guys in the NLCS on three-days.
But if Kennedy goes tonight, one could say that pitching Wolf is tantamount to conceding the game and bringing it back to Milwaukee as he has pitched poorly against AZ this year (9ER, 18H, 3HR, 5BB, 13.1 Innings)... then again, AZ would have to pitch Hudson against Gallardo at home on Friday, and I would think that would be more of a lock for Milwaukee than Kennedy vs. Wolf would be for AZ. Milwaukee only needs a split, AZ needs a sweep.
Regardless of who is on the bump for the snakes tonight, AZ has to feel like they're going to hit against Wolf, and possibly get to the bullpen early. So perhaps they save their their best to go up against Milwaukee's best in Game 5.
The question boils down to whether AZ is more focused on living another day (by pitching Kennedy tonight) or winning the series (pitching Kennedy Friday). In other words, do you A) risk not getting to a Game 5, but if you do you've got a decent chance to win the series or B) pull out all stops to get to Game 5 knowing that if you do, you've got nothing left in the tank.
That said, I think if AZ brings Kennedy back tonight on three-days, we'll also see Gallardo.
I completely understand where you are coming from, but if we wait to pitch Greinke on Friday, he will still have four days rest with the two off days.
I see what you are saying, and its very intriguing, but Gallardo doesn't have much experience pitching on short rest. I'm still more comfortable with fully rested Wolf and then a fully rested Gallardo, at home, for the final game. Gallardo just proved with Game 1 that he is the guy I want out there for the must win game... ahead of Greinke, and ahead of Marcum (who, by the way, looked nervous all night last night).
Wolf has big game experience. And its not like his counterpart tonight is a gamechanger. This should be a good matchup for us.
Quote from: Benny B on October 05, 2011, 10:30:55 AM
The question boils down to whether AZ is more focused on living another day (by pitching Kennedy tonight) or winning the series (pitching Kennedy Friday). In other words, do you A) risk not getting to a Game 5, but if you do you've got a decent chance to win the series or B) pull out all stops to get to Game 5 knowing that if you do, you've got nothing left in the tank.
That said, I think if AZ brings Kennedy back tonight on three-days, we'll also see Gallardo.
I agree that they need to pitch Kennedy. Who cares what kind of shot you have in game 5 if you don't give your best shot to win game 4!
I doubt they pitch Kennedy. They have to give themselves the best chance to win the series, and I think that is planning to win a pretty even pitching matchup tonight, plus being at home, where our defense looked utterly confused, and then put their best guy on the mound on the road.
If they go Saunders (lefty), I hope to see Gomez in center tonight. Nyjer has been under-performing on offense, and I'd bet Gomez catches Montero's ball yesterday that touched off the DBack's scoring. Besides, with Wolf on the mound the defense is going to have to be ready to go... lots of balls will be in play and Gomez provides our best defense.
Did Nyjer mis-time his jump on that ball to center? He seemed to jump, only to have the ball hit off the wall next to him.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 05, 2011, 11:38:23 AM
Did Nyjer mis-time his jump on that ball to center? He seemed to jump, only to have the ball hit off the wall next to him.
That ball was a missile off the bat, he got there a bit late too.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 05, 2011, 10:35:29 AM
I completely understand where you are coming from, but if we wait to pitch Greinke on Friday, he will still have four days rest with the two off days.
I get that, but he's already pitched once this series on three-days rest, which was a second consecutive outing on three-days rest. Given his performance, I'm not sure he'd even be an option in the NLCS to come back again on short rest. If you pitch Gallardo tonight, he could still pitch twice in the NLCS on normal rest, but it would be in games 2 and 6. If you want Gallardo in Game 1 of the WS in Milwaukee on normal rest, he needs to pitch NLCS Game 5 on three-days rest... otherwise, you'd be pitching him in Game 2 of the WS on three-days rest & Game 6 or Game 3 & 7 on normal rest.
I suppose what I'm saying is that IMO, ideally you only want to be forced to pitch a guy on three-days rest once during the entire post-season, but especially not on Game 1 of the WS. Greinke already burned his ticket, and I wouldn't burn Gallardo's in the NLDS. I'm not making trying to make a rock-solid argument here, because Gallardo might be a wizard on three-days rest... this would just be my train of thought if I was RR.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 05, 2011, 11:38:23 AM
Did Nyjer mis-time his jump on that ball to center? He seemed to jump, only to have the ball hit off the wall next to him.
It would have been a good play had he made it, but I do think he misplayed it. Kinda like Chris Young's play on Rickie's triple in game 2: He was right there but didn't seem to know where the wall was so he didn't fully extend, whereas Nyjer jumped early because he thought he was going to hit the wall, when really he probably didn't need to jump. I just think Gomez takes gets there a tick sooner and can settle himself a little... it was a missile, but it was also in the air for a while and could've been caught.
This is not me hating on Nyjer, I think he has proven he can play a good defensive centerfield. Its just that if he is not going to provide the offense, Gomez is still a better option, especially against a lefty.
Either way, the team needs to get on base much more than it did last night. I'm really baffled by how this team is stifled by soft-tossers like Collmenter (who leave 69 mph curveballs waist high, repeatedly) but have been hitting good pitching. I get that Collmenter has a goofy delivery, but that advantage should wear down second and third times through the lineup, especially since we've played him in the regular season once. I hope the trend doesn't continue against Randy Wolf clone Joe Saunders tonight.
I think that for Arizona, pitching Saunders then Kennedy is the right move. I'm not convinced they put themselves in a better position to do win by putting Kennedy and Hudson out there on short rest tonight and friday. When you look at the matchups, Saunders - Wolf is about a wash, as is Kennedy - Gallardo (roughly from the D-backs perspective). You give yourself a chance to win both games. You've got two decent No 4 starters at home, against a pitcher you've had success with. Then in game 5, you would be sending your ace out there and hoping for the best. All you can do.
Say you send Kennedy out on short rest tonight then Hudson in MKE Friday: You've got a strikeout pitcher going on short rest, which might very well put him in a position to not be at his best. He might be your best pitcher, btu he probably won't be at his best, so you're already closing the gap between him and Saunders, etc. Saunders is no slouch, has had a pretty good year, and has big game experience with the Angels. Then you send Hudson, a young kid who has already lost in MKE this series, back out there into the fire against MKE's ace on full rest.
I just think that AZ's best chance to win is hoping your hot bats from last night and at home carries through in an even pitching matchup tonight, then you steal one on the road with your ace on full rest friday.
Where did my fingernails go? Jeeeez.
Another reason everyone should root for the Brewers...
http://deadspin.com/5847403/brewers-girl-promises-to-bring-her-best-cleavage-tomorrow-night
Are all of the Brewers fans out of town, or is everyone just a tad worried about the Dbacks momentum? (And yes I know the old addage about momentum is only as good as next day's starting pitcher or whatever.) The board has been very quiet the last few days.
Quote from: MU B2002 on October 07, 2011, 11:23:09 AM
Are all of the Brewers fans out of town, or is everyone just a tad worried about the Dbacks momentum? (And yes I know the old addage about momentum is only as good as next day's starting pitcher or whatever.) The board has been very quiet the last few days.
I'm bracing for the worst. Really disappointed in how the crew played in AZ. Hope I'm wrong.
Two evenly matched teams who won their home games fairly easilly. If momentum meant all that much in baseball, the series would have never gotten beyond three games. What else can you do at this point but play the game.
Wooo!!! Bring on Senor Borracho and the Cardinals
Quote from: mugrad2006 on October 07, 2011, 08:52:44 PM
Wooo!!! Bring on Senor Borracho and the Cardinals
It's official. Repeat of the 1982 World Series - only the NLCS. Hopefully they call a strike a strike this time to give Pete Ladd some revenge.
Dream scenario - Brewers knock the whiny LaRussa and his Cards out of the playoff's. Nightmare, LaRussa makes it to the Series.
I really do not like that guy. Never have really, from his days with the A's.
Could it get any worse for Cubs fans? Haha. Sucks
Three 1-run game 5's. Three pitcher's duels. Two #1 seeds taken out. No evil empires left. (OK, I know some will argue that LaRussa is an evil empire unto himself) TV execs going crazy because there are no large market teams and 3 from the midwest. Great f-in baseball played. Screw college football.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysoYylP_lM&feature=share
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on October 08, 2011, 09:32:46 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DysoYylP_lM&feature=share
NSFW
Delmon Young hits 3 HR's against the Yankees and is left off of the ALCS roster due to an strained oblique. Ouch. Advantage Rangers. Ordonez back into the 3 slot, for better or worse. Raburn probably gets the starts in LF. He needs to heat up.
So, is there anyone who actually likes Toy LaRussa?
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 09, 2011, 12:43:14 AM
So, is there anyone who actually likes Toy LaRussa?
Bartenders?
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 09, 2011, 12:43:14 AM
So, is there anyone who actually likes Toy LaRussa?
Dermatologists?
Pretty sure each and every one of you would love LaRussa if he was your manager.
I know I would.
A pretty nice tshirt
http://milwaukeeshirtguys.com/his-t-shirt-shop/drunkrussa/
(http://milwaukeeshirtguys.com/wp-content/gallery/featured-shirts/drunkmock.jpg)
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 09, 2011, 12:43:14 AM
So, is there anyone who actually likes Toy LaRussa?
As a Cardinal fan LaRussa can be annoying. Tony loves his matchups with pitching. But it gets ridiculous with blowing through four fricking pitchers for four batters when one reliever is probably able to get through the inning. The best way to describe how Cardinals fans view LaRussa is this: He will make an crazy move which won't make sense. If it fails he is ignorant and too old school. If it works he is a genius.
And yes the man likes his wine in Florida!
Quote from: marqptm on October 09, 2011, 12:56:55 PM
Pretty sure each and every one of you would love LaRussa if he was your manager.
I know I would.
The old adage, "he may be a SOB, but he's our SOB? I don't know if I would tolerate him as a manager of the Brewers. Kind of like Bo coaching MU - just not acceptable.
Quote from: MUMac on October 09, 2011, 04:32:26 PM
The old adage, "he may be a SOB, but he's our SOB? I don't know if I would tolerate him as a manager of the Brewers. Kind of like Bo coaching MU - just not acceptable.
No, he wins. Easy to hate, but cannot argue with results. Brewers fans would be lucky to have him.
And now Ordonez is out for Detroit. That is 3 starting outfielders out in the last 6 weeks. Huge edge to Texas. Going to need role players to morph into heros.
Don Kelly could be the X-factor in the Detroit series now. Also Avilla has to start hitting at some point so if he can find his bat then the tigers are in good shape.
Quote from: cbowe3 on October 09, 2011, 05:39:03 PM
Don Kelly could be the X-factor in the Detroit series now. Also Avilla has to start hitting at some point so if he can find his bat then the tigers are in good shape.
I don't know if I'd say "good" shape. When Verlander's on the mound, you pretty much count on it being a Tigers win. 1 game in and Verlander was already on the mound but lost. This is a pretty even series that could go either way, but the Rangers taking game 1 with Verlander pitching for the Tigers definitely tips it in the Rangers' favor I would say. Home field (obviously) gives the Rangers an advantage too. They KILL the ball at home. Not so much on the road.
Quote from: marqptm on October 09, 2011, 05:08:18 PM
No, he wins. Easy to hate, but cannot argue with results. Brewers fans would be lucky to have him.
I am happy with Roenicke and actually prefer him, by a significant margin, over the old LaRussa.
Quote from: MUMac on October 09, 2011, 08:53:00 PM
I am happy with Roenicke and actually prefer him, by a significant margin, over the old LaRussa.
+1. I think the Brewers players would feel the same way. You can tell they love playing for Ron.
By the way, Braun goes yard, puts his head down and rounds the bases so they have to plunk Prince? In the 1st inning of game 1? What a bunch of pr!cks.
Quote from: wadesworld on October 09, 2011, 10:03:27 PM
+1. I think the Brewers players would feel the same way. You can tell they love playing for Ron.
By the way, Braun goes yard, puts his head down and rounds the bases so they have to plunk Prince? In the 1st inning of game 1? What a bunch of pr!cks.
If you thought that plunk was on purpose, I really don't know what to say, other than to ask how many you've had. If that was sarcasm, it wasn't delivered very well.
Quote from: jmayer1 on October 09, 2011, 11:05:22 PM
If you thought that plunk was on purpose, I really don't know what to say, other than to ask how many you've had. If that was sarcasm, it wasn't delivered very well.
Sure are a lot of coincidences when the Cards are playing the Brewers.
Quote from: jmayer1 on October 09, 2011, 11:05:22 PM
If you thought that plunk was on purpose, I really don't know what to say, other than to ask how many you've had. If that was sarcasm, it wasn't delivered very well.
You're kidding right? Braun hits a ball 463 feet and the very next pitch, with the Brewers all-star first baseman up, you hit him up and in? I know Garcia didn't have "it" yesterday, but to miss THAT bad with a fastball? Wow. Ok, I guess. Everyone in their right mind knows that was intentional, including the umpire. Why else would you warn both benches and both starting pitchers in the 1st inning?
Quote from: marqptm on October 09, 2011, 05:08:18 PM
No, he wins. Easy to hate, but cannot argue with results. Brewers fans would be lucky to have him.
I completely disagree with this. As will 80% of Brewers fans.
I'd rather have Ken Macha back. Or possibly Ned Yost. Ok, Yost is a bit of hyperbole.
Quote from: wadesworld on October 10, 2011, 07:15:11 AM
You're kidding right? Braun hits a ball 463 feet and the very next pitch, with the Brewers all-star first baseman up, you hit him up and in? I know Garcia didn't have "it" yesterday, but to miss THAT bad with a fastball? Wow. Ok, I guess. Everyone in their right mind knows that was intentional, including the umpire. Why else would you warn both benches and both starting pitchers in the 1st inning?
You think the Cardinals would hit a guy on purpose with with 1 out in the 1st inning of a playoff game when they are down 1 run? That's just nonsense and even LaRussa isn't stupid enough to do something like that. Also, when is getting hit on the bottom of the arm considered up and in or a terrible miss? As for everybody thinking that was intentional, I haven't seen a player (Fielder and all of the Brewers included), former player, commentator, or journalist suggest that it was on purpose. I guess you have a different definition of everyone than most other people. I think the only reason there was a warning issued was due to the past history and the umpire wanting to keep things in check (although I don't think he needed to do that).
Quote from: wadesworld on October 10, 2011, 07:15:11 AM
You're kidding right? Braun hits a ball 463 feet and the very next pitch, with the Brewers all-star first baseman up, you hit him up and in? I know Garcia didn't have "it" yesterday, but to miss THAT bad with a fastball? Wow. Ok, I guess. Everyone in their right mind knows that was intentional, including the umpire. Why else would you warn both benches and both starting pitchers in the 1st inning?
It wasn't a fastball. Weeks was walked on four pitches right afterwards. Garcia was clearly rattled and had control issues. Fielder even said it was obviously not intentional.
And jmayer is right...why would they plunk Fielder there? LaRussa may be an a-hole, but he's not stupid. There is no reason to hit him there. For what? For Nyjer Morgan running at the mouth? For Braun hitting a home run? Why would you "retaliate" for that? If the Cardinals are going to do that, and I don't think they will, it will be when they are up 8-2 late in the game in St. Louis. Not in the first inning of Game 1.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 10, 2011, 07:58:09 AM
And jmayer is right...why would they plunk Fielder For Braun hitting a home run?
Yes. You say that like its something that has never been done. Happens all the time.
As someone pointed out, TLR is involved in way more than his fair share of these coincidences. He knows damn well when the benches will be warned, and it is well known that he is a guy that will get his shot in to draw the warning. This is not something new, there has been a clear pattern of this throughout his career.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 10, 2011, 08:24:42 AM
Yes. You say that like its something that has never been done. Happens all the time.
As someone pointed out, TLR is involved in way more than his fair share of these coincidences. He knows damn well when the benches will be warned, and it is well known that he is a guy that will get his shot in to draw the warning. This is not something new, there has been a clear pattern of this throughout his career.
Exactly. And you plunk Fielder because he was probably going to walk anyway. The last thing the Cards needed there was back to back HRs. No one is going to say that he was hit intentionally... especially Prince.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 10, 2011, 07:58:09 AM
It wasn't a fastball. Weeks was walked on four pitches right afterwards. Garcia was clearly rattled and had control issues. Fielder even said it was obviously not intentional.
And jmayer is right...why would they plunk Fielder there? LaRussa may be an a-hole, but he's not stupid. There is no reason to hit him there. For what? For Nyjer Morgan running at the mouth? For Braun hitting a home run? Why would you "retaliate" for that? If the Cardinals are going to do that, and I don't think they will, it will be when they are up 8-2 late in the game in St. Louis. Not in the first inning of Game 1.
What other pitch does Garcia throw at 90 MPH? It certainly was a fastball. I'm not sure if it was or was not intentional, but I find it surprising that so many think it clearly was not.
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on October 10, 2011, 08:39:43 AM
Exactly. And you plunk Fielder because he was probably going to walk anyway. The last thing the Cards needed there was back to back HRs. No one is going to say that he was hit intentionally... especially Prince.
Agreed with this. Why hit Prince with 1 out in the bottom of the 1st of a 1 run game? Well, because after Braun in the Brewers lineup as it is, Fielder's the only one who's going to do any damage. Rickie was hitting under .100 for the post season, and then you have Yuni Betancourt, Carlos Gomez, Johnathon Lucroy, and the pitcher (in this case, Greinke). Obviously Yuni had a great game, but I would much rather take my chances putting Prince on 1st base (not like he's going to steal second and score on a single) and letting those guys try to knock him in. Don't let Prince hit one out and you get out of the inning unharmed. Which is what happened.
As far as up and in, yes, it was up and in. He got hit in the shoulder AS he stood up to back away from the pitch. That means the pitch was above the letters and far enough in that even with attempting to avoid it he couldn't. Not sure how you'd define "up and in" if that wasn't up and in. Does it have the be eye level or higher to be up? Behind him to be in? Interesting. I'd say above the letters is up, and far enough in that he couldn't even avoid it when backing away is in. Maybe that's just me.
If it wasn't a fastball, I guess that's why he got shelled. Absolutely no break to it. So his off speed pitches have no movement to it and go 90 mph.
Quote from: wadesworld on October 10, 2011, 09:43:32 AM
Agreed with this. Why hit Prince with 1 out in the bottom of the 1st of a 1 run game? Well, because after Braun in the Brewers lineup as it is, Fielder's the only one who's going to do any damage. Rickie was hitting under .100 for the post season, and then you have Yuni Betancourt, Carlos Gomez, Johnathon Lucroy, and the pitcher (in this case, Greinke). Obviously Yuni had a great game, but I would much rather take my chances putting Prince on 1st base (not like he's going to steal second and score on a single) and letting those guys try to knock him in. Don't let Prince hit one out and you get out of the inning unharmed. Which is what happened.
As far as up and in, yes, it was up and in. He got hit in the shoulder AS he stood up to back away from the pitch. That means the pitch was above the letters and far enough in that even with attempting to avoid it he couldn't. Not sure how you'd define "up and in" if that wasn't up and in. Does it have the be eye level or higher to be up? Behind him to be in? Interesting. I'd say above the letters is up, and far enough in that he couldn't even avoid it when backing away is in. Maybe that's just me.
If it wasn't a fastball, I guess that's why he got shelled. Absolutely no break to it. So his off speed pitches have no movement to it and go 90 mph.
This is geting into semantics but I would consider up to be shoulders or higher and in would be middle of the back or further. Getting hit just above the elbow is not up and is not very far in in my opinion.
Maybe Fielder would have walked (certainly a possibility with the control problems Garcia was having) but there's no reason to give him a free pass at that juncture of the game, it's simple baseball logic. They still have 2 outs to try and knock him in from 1st and these are still major league players batting behind him facing a guy that doesn't seem to have his best stuff, it makes no sense to put a free baserunner on at that early stage of the game.
Why can't anyone say that he was hit intentionally (besides the Cards for fear of fine/suspension)? If Prince feels he was hit intentionally, why can't he just say, "Yeah, I thought maybe that one was inside to send a messaage" or something like that. Some of fhe Brewers haven't exactly been careful choosing their words coming into the series. Certainly, journalists and commentators can comment on that, they have no horse in the race and love to drum up stories. Yet, I haven't seen any stories along that line, unless I missed some.
It certainly was a fastball. I'm not sure why Sultan thought it wasn't.
OK, OK...I thought it was a breaking ball...obviously not. :)
Good lord, Braun was one row from hitting it all the way out of MP with the back windows open. Yes, LaRussa ordered a close shave...in fact, they threw it inside on Prince again (knees) the next at bat after his HR. Why pluck him in the 1st inning of the first series game after Braun just drove one into Racine County? Baseball 101. Prince was going to be jumping on the first pitch (see 5th inning HR) and LaRussa wanted to send a series long message.
Risk? A slow running Fielder with a sinker ball pitcher on the mound against a struggling and impatient Weeks. Playing the DP odds as the kid has a history in the minors and majors with being able to have right handed batters ground out.
And no, Prince is not going to admit in the press that they threw at him intentionally as that is an admission that LaRussa is getting in his head with the mind games.
Quote
The most notable skill Garcia possesses in the ability to get groundballs. In nearly 400 cumulative innings in the minor leagues, Garcia's ground ball rate was a fantastic 58.7%. In fact, 60% of the balls hit by right-hander hitters off Garcia in the minors stayed on the ground.
http://bloombergsports.mlblogs.com/2010/04/21/is-jaime-garcia-the-cardinals-new-underground-pitcher/
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 10, 2011, 07:58:09 AM
It wasn't a fastball. Weeks was walked on four pitches right afterwards. Garcia was clearly rattled and had control issues. Fielder even said it was obviously not intentional.
And jmayer is right...why would they plunk Fielder there? LaRussa may be an a-hole, but he's not stupid. There is no reason to hit him there. For what? For Nyjer Morgan running at the mouth? For Braun hitting a home run? Why would you "retaliate" for that? If the Cardinals are going to do that, and I don't think they will, it will be when they are up 8-2 late in the game in St. Louis. Not in the first inning of Game 1.
I agree. No way would they hit Prince intentionally in that situation. Garcia was struggling at that point. The only thing I did not understand is why Bettancourt was not taking until a strike was thrown?
If the Tigers don't hit, eventually the Rangers will. Texas deserves to be up 2-0
Having to either beat Carpenter, or rely on Wolf/Greinke on the road is not a place I want to be.
Marcum effing blows.
Quote from: MUfan12 on October 10, 2011, 11:08:53 PM
Having to either beat Carpenter, or rely on Wolf/Greinke on the road is not a place I want to be.
Marcum effing blows.
Totally agree. At the same time, Gallardo/Carpenter is a fairly close matchup, as is Lohse/Wolf. We absolutely need to take one of those games.
Quote from: MUfan12 on October 10, 2011, 11:08:53 PM
Having to either beat Carpenter, or rely on Wolf/Greinke on the road is not a place I want to be.
Marcum effing blows.
If he gets another start in this series it will be Jeff Suppan-esque. He's cooked.
I still like our chances with Gallardo going up against Carpenter tomorrow night. Even a loss doesn't sink the team, as I'm not selling on Wolf just yet... he's only given up 9H/2ER/2BB/6K in 16.0 IP over his last two outings in St. Louis. However, it would be a blatant lie if I said I wasn't the least bit worried --- since his seven-inning 2ER no decision against Philly (a team that crushes LHP) on Sept 10, he's given up 20 ER over his last four outings. But with Greinke on the mound in Game 5, I think the Brewers will at least going to bring this series back to Milwaukee.
Marcum's going to the pen... probably not to return this post-season. I'll bet a dollar we see Narveson in Game 6. Narve-dog has had some success against StL this year --- 2ER/3BB/11K in 16.0 IP over 2 starts and one relief outing. With exception to his one-inning relief outing on Aug 31, the Cards haven't seen him since June 10... that relative unfamiliarity may be just what the Brewers need to slow their bats down.
I don't see the Brewers getting swept in St.L with both Gallardo and Greinke going in two of the three games there. I would say with 90% confidence they'll take at least one game there, 60-40 they take 2, and a 33% chance they are sitting at home on Sunday waiting to see who they'll meet between the Rangers and Tigers.
I'm pretty concerned right now. A five game series where you spend the first three on the road seems like such a quick series. Mentally feels much faster than a 2-2-1. I have this overhanging dread that at the end of this week, I will feel like I blinked and then all of a sudden the whole season was over.
top of the first and i have to write it somewhere. Randy Wolf had better get this wide zone.
Quote from: MUBurrow on October 13, 2011, 07:12:11 PM
top of the first and i have to write it somewhere. Randy Wolf had better get this wide zone.
I have a feeling someone is going to get tossed. Most of the series has been a tighter zone. This zone is far too wide.
we finally know the reason why wolf struggled so much in his previous start - his jockstrap broke:
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/15731852/properly-strapped-in-brewers-wolf-is-one-focused-jock
So if the Brewers lose tonight, do they dare trot out Marcum on Sunday? Or do they go Gallardo and Wolf on short rest?
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 14, 2011, 10:00:27 AM
So if the Brewers lose tonight, do they dare trot out Marcum on Sunday? Or do they go Gallardo and Wolf on short rest?
Probably the second option. If it's not going to be Gallardo and Wolf on short rest, then I would honestly rather give Narveson a chance. He had good numbers against the Cardinals on the year and looked strong in his one inning of relief work this series (obviously a tiny sample size). I would be scared to death with Marcum pitching another game.
Quote from: wadesworld on October 14, 2011, 11:13:14 AM
Probably the second option. If it's not going to be Gallardo and Wolf on short rest, then I would honestly rather give Narveson a chance. He had good numbers against the Cardinals on the year and looked strong in his one inning of relief work this series (obviously a tiny sample size). I would be scared to death with Marcum pitching another game.
I agree on being scared to pitch Marcum, but in an interview Roenicke said that he's very concerned that Narveson isnt stretched out, and its been a while since he's actually started games routinely. So that means that realistically, if Narveson were to start it would more likely be a Narveson/Estrada combo. I still think I would prefer that to Marcum if we were to lose tonight. If it were just the two playoff games that went bad on Marcum, I'd say trot him out there. But this is becoming a very long trend since the end of the year.
Can't they just get five innings out of Narveson? You can thing string together Hawkins, Saito, KRod and Axford to finish the game.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 14, 2011, 10:00:27 AM
So if the Brewers lose tonight, do they dare trot out Marcum on Sunday? Or do they go Gallardo and Wolf on short rest?
Whoever loses tonight will likely bring back their Game 3 starter on short rest.
Personally, I'm hoping to see Carpenter on Sunday.
I'm happy to get to a game 6 back in Texas, and I think we have better starters going, but the rest of the team looks like a MASH unit. I hope I am wrong, but I think the ALCS ends Saturday.
If Wolf's outing yesterday did nothing else, it showed me that Sunday may well be Marcum on a very short leash, followed by Johnny Wholestaff if necessary. I see Marcum as a guy very capable of rising to the challenge just as Wolf did last night.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 14, 2011, 02:34:33 PM
If Wolf's outing yesterday did nothing else, it showed me that Sunday may well be Marcum on a very short leash, followed by Johnny Wholestaff if necessary. I see Marcum as a guy very capable of rising to the challenge just as Wolf did last night.
The concern I have with Marcum is his arm. He has thrown more innings this year than any other season. Over the last few games, he has not had his normal stuff. I hope he does not have a tired arm, but he shows some signs of it.
As horrendous as this team is defensively, it may not matter who pitches. Wow, this is a truly bad defensive team. 8 errors in 10 postseason games and that does not include the inability of Morgan, Hart or Kotsay to make plays they should have, but were not errors.
Grienke pitched well tonight and deserved better than the butchers behind him.
Quote from: MUMac on October 14, 2011, 09:14:06 PM
As horrendous as this team is defensively, it may not matter who pitches. Wow, this is a truly bad defensive team. 8 errors in 10 postseason games and that does not include the inability of Morgan, Hart or Kotsay to make plays they should have, but were not errors.
Grienke pitched well tonight and deserved better than the butchers behind him.
I agree with your first point, but not with the bolded parts. There is absolutely no way you can expect a guy to catch a line drive to the opposite field that hits the top of the wall. COULD Corey have made that play? Yes. SHOULD he have? Personally I would say definitely not. That is an extremely difficult play. Same thing with Morgan in center field. These are line drive SHOTS that hit towards the top of the wall. These aren't pop flies that allow time for the fielders to get under them and get a read on where they are heading. There are VERY few defenders who make those plays, and it takes some luck for even them to do so.
Kotsay obviously should have gotten to that ball.
Is there absolutely any reason that Rickie Weeks is still playing? I honestly would rather have Craig Counsell at 2B right now. He's hitting .143 in the post season with 2 walks. Counsell at least makes the defensive plays he should and can get bunts down (see: Game 5 NLDS). Or McGehee back at 3rd and Hairston over to 2nd. Does anybody in the MLB swing and miss at fastballs more than Rickie Weeks? What doe she bring to the team right now? I'm dead serious, he's the worst player on the field every night. I understand he wouldn't be if he hadn't gotten hurt, but...he did. It's October. There is no time for him to "work it out." Feelings don't matter. Play the guys who will give you the best chance to win. Rickie does not.
Rickie is still hurt. It's not easy to dig in the box with a bum ankle... and for a guy who relies on his bat speed for power and average, footing at the plate is everything. I'm willing to give Weeks a pass, but others certainly aren't pulling their weight and need to play as if their backs are against the wall, primarily because they are.
Quote from: Benny B on October 14, 2011, 11:42:43 PM
Rickie is still hurt. It's not easy to dig in the box with a bum ankle... and for a guy who relies on his bat speed for power and average, footing at the plate is everything. I'm willing to give Weeks a pass, but others certainly aren't pulling their weight and need to play as if their backs are against the wall, primarily because they are.
That's my point. He's still hurt and he's not producing. He should not be in the lineup.
Not to pile on, but Rickie is also not making plays on defense. He has 2 errors in the past 2 games, and they were both just clearly a matter of not moving his feet. I agree that he should be commended for trying to tough it out, but if it hurts too much to move laterally, you just can't play 2B. Yesterday it was a matter of not moving to his left and getting his body behind the ball. Today he didnt move enough to his right, just picked at the ball, and was all out of whack and therefore couldn't set and throw - gave Prince next to no chance. I love Rickie, and was very excited about how having him protect Prince would change the dynamic of our team, but pitchers just arent afraid of him enough anymore to do Prince any favors.
Related note: Corey Hart is terrible. He looks like he's been shot in the knees. Maybe todays ball can't really be blamed on him, but there have been a couple of pop fouls that have been playable as well, that he doesn't get to. Disclaimer: I've never liked Corey Hart.
Quote from: wadesworld on October 14, 2011, 09:24:00 PM
I agree with your first point, but not with the bolded parts. There is absolutely no way you can expect a guy to catch a line drive to the opposite field that hits the top of the wall. COULD Corey have made that play? Yes. SHOULD he have? Personally I would say definitely not. That is an extremely difficult play. Same thing with Morgan in center field. These are line drive SHOTS that hit towards the top of the wall. These aren't pop flies that allow time for the fielders to get under them and get a read on where they are heading. There are VERY few defenders who make those plays, and it takes some luck for even them to do so.
Both Morgan and Hart made very poor attempts to make those catches. Neither one looked like they knew how to leap against the wall. Morgan's leap - both against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks - looked worse than a beer league softball player. He lept - in both those cases - far too early, flailing at the ball. Gomez, IMHO, makes everyone of those plays. Morgan and Hart are liabilities in the outfield.
It's the NLCS, you make those plays. The winners do, the losers don't. You need better fielders in the outfield.
Quote from: MUMac on October 15, 2011, 06:00:48 AM
Both Morgan and Hart made very poor attempts to make those catches. Neither one looked like they knew how to leap against the wall. Morgan's leap - both against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks - looked worse than a beer league softball player. He lept - in both those cases - far too early, flailing at the ball. Gomez, IMHO, makes everyone of those plays. Morgan and Hart are liabilities in the outfield.
It's the NLCS, you make those plays. The winners do, the losers don't. You need better fielders in the outfield.
I couldn't disagree more on those specific plays. I do agree that Gomez has a better chance to make those plays because he is faster (who isn't he faster than, really?), but even that I am not positive he makes the plays on. That has nothing to do with winners or effort or anything. When you are sprinting full speed towards the wall while your head is over your shoulder looking back at home plate and you know you're approaching the wall but don't know where the wall is and you have to catch the ball on the run over the shoulder, there is absolutely no way that you can expect that ball to be caught. And it takes an incredible amount of luck to time a jump right on a line drive over your head. I think you are downplaying how incredibly difficult an over the shoulder play is. Again, how often do you see a ball that is hit on a line to the opposite field that **would** (did, in this case) hit off the top of the wall if it were not caught be caught? I don't ever remember seeing one by anybody. Same thing to dead center field. Again, these are lasers, not even between a pop fly and a liner, just a straight liner. INCREDIBLY difficult play.
Just for comparison's sake, 1 out bottom 6, 1-1 ball game in Game 5 of the NLDS vs. the Diamondbacks, 1st and 2nd and Hairston hits a liner to dead center. Chris Young made a catch that I think everyone, including Chris Young, thought he had no chance to make. One of the best catches I have ever seen in the playoffs. He caught the ball right at the warning track (and MP has a huge warning track). You put that ball off the top of the wall and he's not even close to catching it. You just don't make those plays. Ever.
Hart is awful at defense. But there is no way I am blaming not making that catch on Hart. None. Morgan is a solid defender. Not spectacular and not a strong arm, but is a good defender.
Well that idea to start Marcum like nothing happened is really looking like a bright one.
McGuire must've been passing out the HGH before this game...holy crap, Cardinals are hitting out of their minds.
Quote from: LancesOtherNut on October 11, 2011, 08:00:13 AM
If he gets another start in this series it will be Jeff Suppan-esque. He's cooked.
I can't be the only one that thought this, right?
13 of the 26 home losses came in Marcum starts. Hopefully he gets traded, after three terrible playoff starts only Ron Roenicke wants him back next year.
You can't discount the fact that the acquisition of Marcum and Greinke were amongst the top reasons the Brewers won the division this year. Unfortunately, both made significant contributions in the Brewers NLCS demise. Marcum's horrendous September & October speaks for itself. Greinke, although effective, didn't fare well relative to his ability and potential in the post-season. I understand that a lot of people will place the blame on the defense for Game 5 (and rightfully so), but I simply cannot overlook the fact that a guy with 200+ K's on the season failed to strike out a single batter on Friday night. I give Zack credit insomuch as he didn't have his stuff working but battled as best he could - on a typical night, he would have given enough for a solid defensive team to win - that's what an ace or #2 is supposed to give you. But even a couple of strikeouts in key situations on Friday would have kept the game out of the defense's hands.
The oft-injured Weeks didn't give the Crew anything in October until it was too late. Certainly, you can't blame him for his ankle injury, but if anything, it exposed the lack of depth the Brewers had offensively.
Corey Hart evidently wants the title "Second Coming of Geoff Jenkins". When he's hot, there's no stopping him. When he goes cold, he can't hit to save his life. Unfortunately, he went cold at the least opportune time.
For two MVP candidates who appeared to be heating up at just the right time, Braun and Fielder were virtually non-existent after game 1 of the NLCS. I can't remember the last time both of these guys were on a hot streak together. Unfortunately, I'll forever remember the last time they were in a slump together.
If Casey McGehee makes the 2012 Opening Day roster, my guess is that he will be right back to where he started his first Opening Day three years ago... in a bench role. It's quite unfortunate that a 2009 ROY candidate who had 23 HR's and 100+ RBI's last year seems to have lost his stroke completely... but I suppose that's not uncommon for guys who break into the majors at 27.
Nyjer Morgan was a boon for this team all year long. Against the Cardinals, he was merely a boob. Hopefully the experience from this year will translate into maturity for his game (although probably not for his personality).
Everyone else did pretty much as expected throughout the season. Even Yuni B lived up to his expectations, good or bad.
During the off-season, the Brewers have to make SS and/or 3B a priority, i.e. a top-tier player, not necessarily a gold glove, but someone who is reliable in the field and at the plate. Reyes jumps to mind first, but I'm sure he's on the minds of nearly every other team as well. If they don't fill that role, it doesn't matter what they do anywhere else. While CF seems like an obvious priority as well, I'm not sure they're selling on Morgan or Gomez just yet. With Prince's seemingly eminent departure, they'll need to fill a role at 1B and cleanup. Aramis Ramirez might be targeted as he plugs holes at 3B and cleanup (which would be quite ironic that after years of being blocked by Ramirez, McGehee finally lands a starting role with another team only to lose it to the same guy three years later).
However, I'm not exactly sure Fielder is going anywhere just yet... his dismal showing in two of his three post-season series isn't going to instill confidence in very many teams, AL in particular, about his ability to get it done in October... and I'm not sure a team that has cash but isn't ready to compete (e.g. Cubs, Orioles, Mariners, Astros, etc.) is going to meet his (Boras') demands. Not to mention that Fielder might not even be the 3rd best FA this winter. I'm about 50-50 he signs a one-year deal with the Brewers and tries to hit the market next year as the prize FA... if he wants to get signed through 2018, that's the only way I see it happening is getting his stock up in Milwaukee in 2012 (or perhaps somewhere else after the trade deadline) and signing a six-year deal 12 months from now.
The window of opportunity isn't closed for the Brewers... there are still a few options to prop it up temporarily to carry them through 2012. The team is probably only two or three moves (3B/SS, a cleanup hitter, and a late-inning reliever) from standing a decent chance at being back in the post-season next year.
What about a guy like Alex Gonzales at SS? Not much at the plate, but a solid fielder - and much cheaper than Reyes. And what about Grady Sizemore? I think we need a lefty power threat, and he would be cheaper than Prince. I worry about Aramis...reputation as not a great clubhouse guy.
Quote from: Benny B on October 17, 2011, 10:24:53 AM
However, I'm not exactly sure Fielder is going anywhere just yet... his dismal showing in two of his three post-season series isn't going to instill confidence in very many teams, AL in particular, about his ability to get it done in October... and I'm not sure a team that has cash but isn't ready to compete (e.g. Cubs, Orioles, Mariners, Astros, etc.) is going to meet his (Boras') demands. Not to mention that Fielder might not even be the 3rd best FA this winter. I'm about 50-50 he signs a one-year deal with the Brewers and tries to hit the market next year as the prize FA... if he wants to get signed through 2018, that's the only way I see it happening is getting his stock up in Milwaukee in 2012 (or perhaps somewhere else after the trade deadline) and signing a six-year deal 12 months from now.
I can only tell you for your own sake that you are out of your mind if you think anything close to this is going to happen, particularly if you are largely basing your theory on a bad week against the Cardinals. The cahnaces of Prince signing a one-year contract with the Brewers are roughly the same as me signing a one-year contract with the Brewers.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 17, 2011, 10:33:28 AM
I can only tell you for your own sake that you are out of your mind if you think anything close to this is going to happen, particularly if you are largely basing your theory on a bad week against the Cardinals. The cahnaces of Prince signing a one-year contract with the Brewers are roughly the same as me signing a one-year contract with the Brewers.
Definitely agree, he is not signing a 1 year deal. There is a tiny, tiny chance that he resigns with the Brewers, but not for 1 year. The "big boys" (Boston and NYY) may not be in the "bidding war" because they already have first basemen and DHs, but Florida, Washington, Seattle, or somewhere else will pony up close to (or maybe slightly above) Texiera money for Prince. I'd say it's about 95% chance he leaves, 5% chance the Brewers pony up enough that he wants to stay with "Uncle" Rickie and his boys in Milwaukee. And 0% chance he signs a 1 year contact. That's for guys like Pena who hit 35 homers but has a .200 BA and want to prove they're worth a bigger contract than they're being offered. When you're hitting .300/35/120 and you're 27 years old, you're getting paid. He has nothing to prove to anybody. He already has done so with his play. And the fact that he is the only player who played in all 162 games this season is something he can point to when teams "worry" about his weight. He's a top 2 free agent this winter, behind only arguably the best hitter ever to play baseball.
I'm a Cubs fan and I hope Fielder stays in Milwaukee. That's a fun team to watch. If they can get some people in the outfield and on the left side of the infield who can catch the ball they can repeat as division champs. I thought Hart was horrendous the entire series. They need an upgrade there. Third base is a no-brainer. How about Aramis Ramirez for you guys? He's a free agent.
Brewers will be better off replacing Prince with Moneyball guys. Upgrade the defense, and get adequate bats. There are guys who would play for a winner. HAven't done enough research to know who exactly, yet.
Love Prince, love what he did with the Brewers, wish he was signable, but with Boras as agent, fuhgetaboutit. It is not the end of the world. A Lyle Overbay type guy, along with upgrades at SS, 3B, CF will improve the team.
Quote from: ringout on October 18, 2011, 12:32:01 PM
Brewers will be better off replacing Prince with Moneyball guys. Upgrade the defense, and get adequate bats. There are guys who would play for a winner. HAven't done enough research to know who exactly, yet.
If they were 'Moneyball' guys they wouldn't be upgrading your defense.
Quote from: wadesworld on October 17, 2011, 12:28:01 PM
He's a top 2 free agent this winter, behind only arguably the best hitter ever to play baseball.
Pujols is the #1 FA in 2012, without a doubt. He may leave St. Louis, he may not. But bear in mind while Prince is the youngest and second most productive of the 2012 1B FA class, let's face it... there are still questions about his weight and his defense circling around, and most teams may be more inclined to take a flyer on a Papi or Thome-type for a year rather than commit eight years to Fielder.
That said, the big money is going to chase Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson. CC Sabathia is going to opt-out only to resign with the Yankees, but rumors are circling that Texas may make a strong push for CC, especially if Wilson doesn't re-sign. Further, there are more teams that need closers than those that need 1B, and so Valverde and K-Rod might even be a higher priority than Fielder on teams' hot stove lists.
One other factor to keep in mind is that Fielder probably won't sign anywhere until Pujols "sets the market." If Pujols takes his time, the big money elsewhere may already be spent by the time he inks his contract, which would leave Fielder out in the cold.
Although he might be as high as #2 or #3, Fielder may be as low as the #7 free agent on the market this year. I'll stick to my opinion that he's #4 behind Pujols, Reyes, and Wilson/Sabathia.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 17, 2011, 10:33:28 AM
I can only tell you for your own sake that you are out of your mind if you think anything close to this is going to happen, particularly if you are largely basing your theory on a bad week against the Cardinals. The cahnaces of Prince signing a one-year contract with the Brewers are roughly the same as me signing a one-year contract with the Brewers.
See above... a bad week against the Cardinals is a mere afterthought when you consider the supply/demand aspects of Fielders next contract.
The Brewers are undoubtedly going to offer arbitration... it's a high-risk, high-reward move, but don't be surprised if Fielder accepts and Boras negotiates the arbitration clause out in a one-year deal laden with incentives to bring the thing over $20M (which is probably more than he'd make in the first year of an eight-year deal any way). It may seem like a long-shot, but you'd be out of your own mind to outright dismiss such a possibility, or anything close to it.
The Tigers will exercise their option on Valverde. Cross him off of the list. Ordonez, Guillen, Betemit, and Penny come off of the payroll, opening up $35 million to play with. Expect Detroit to be players in both the Reyes and Ramirez sweepstakes.
Comparison of Fielder and Mo Vaughn, just because I like pretty pictures. Forecasts Fielder for about three more productive years.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=4613&playerid3=899&playerid4=&playerid5
Quote from: Benny B on October 18, 2011, 02:34:54 PM
The Brewers are undoubtedly going to offer arbitration... it's a high-risk, high-reward move, but don't be surprised if Fielder accepts and Boras negotiates the arbitration clause out in a one-year deal laden with incentives to bring the thing over $20M (which is probably more than he'd make in the first year of an eight-year deal any way). It may seem like a long-shot, but you'd be out of your own mind to outright dismiss such a possibility, or anything close to it.
How is offering Fielder arbitration a high-risk move? If he accepts (never, ever going to happen) they work out a 1-year deal. Of course they are going to offer him arbitration, if they don't the Brewers get no compensation. That's like saying the sun is going to rise in the East tomorrow, it goes without saying.
I think you are the only one out of your mind if you think Fielder would sign a 1 year deal. Why would he (and Boras) possibily try to squeeze out a couple million more in year 1 and risk all the guaranteed money he's bound to get with an injury or down year next year? Fielder is going to get a monster deal next year. Regardless of who you think is a bigger free agent "priority" next year, in actuality, he'll probably sign the 2nd biggest deal by a decent margin. He really cannot improve his value any more than it is right now by playing under a 1 year contract next year.
Quote from: Benny B on October 18, 2011, 02:34:54 PM
Pujols is the #1 FA in 2012, without a doubt. He may leave St. Louis, he may not. But bear in mind while Prince is the youngest and second most productive of the 2012 1B FA class, let's face it... there are still questions about his weight and his defense circling around, and most teams may be more inclined to take a flyer on a Papi or Thome-type for a year rather than commit eight years to Fielder.
That said, the big money is going to chase Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson. CC Sabathia is going to opt-out only to resign with the Yankees, but rumors are circling that Texas may make a strong push for CC, especially if Wilson doesn't re-sign. Further, there are more teams that need closers than those that need 1B, and so Valverde and K-Rod might even be a higher priority than Fielder on teams' hot stove lists.
One other factor to keep in mind is that Fielder probably won't sign anywhere until Pujols "sets the market." If Pujols takes his time, the big money elsewhere may already be spent by the time he inks his contract, which would leave Fielder out in the cold.
Although he might be as high as #2 or #3, Fielder may be as low as the #7 free agent on the market this year. I'll stick to my opinion that he's #4 behind Pujols, Reyes, and Wilson/Sabathia.
See above... a bad week against the Cardinals is a mere afterthought when you consider the supply/demand aspects of Fielders next contract.
The Brewers are undoubtedly going to offer arbitration... it's a high-risk, high-reward move, but don't be surprised if Fielder accepts and Boras negotiates the arbitration clause out in a one-year deal laden with incentives to bring the thing over $20M (which is probably more than he'd make in the first year of an eight-year deal any way). It may seem like a long-shot, but you'd be out of your own mind to outright dismiss such a possibility, or anything close to it.
Never ever pay for closers.
I have Reyes as my wish player... I'd LOVE him in Milwaukee, and I'd buy a Reyes jersey that day... Though I know it is probably a pipe dream.
I think the Brewers are okay without Fielder... but they need to sign someone with some pop in their bat... to at least keep a threat going.
I think Hart will continue to lead off, Morgan 2nd, Weeks 3rd, and Braun 4th... unless they find a bat to protect Braun.
Quote from: Benny B on October 18, 2011, 02:34:54 PM
The Brewers are undoubtedly going to offer arbitration... it's a high-risk, high-reward move, but don't be surprised if Fielder accepts and Boras negotiates the arbitration clause out in a one-year deal laden with incentives to bring the thing over $20M (which is probably more than he'd make in the first year of an eight-year deal any way). It may seem like a long-shot, but you'd be out of your own mind to outright dismiss such a possibility, or anything close to it.
I do completely dismiss the possibility of him accepting it, or anything close to it. The guys is in his prime baseball years right now. Short of getting hit over the head with a blunt object, what on God's green earth would cause him to sign a one year contract, when teams will be offering him 6+?
The flaw in your thinking seems to be the league's doubts about his ability, and where that puts him in the pecking order. The guy has a Hall of Fame bat and everyone knows it. Beyond that, Pujols for example is 4 years older than Fielder (at least), and is definitely entering the back side of his career. Fielder will get the bigger/longer contract this year. He doesn't need to wait a year. Baseball contracts are about years much more than they are dollars. Waiting a year doesn't help him, it can only hurt him.
Of the guys you mentions, Reyes and Fielder are going to get the longest-term deals, likely followed by Sabathia, Pujols and Wilson, . K-Rod is no more than a 2-3 year contract guy, especially in light of guys like Papelbon, Bell and Madsen on the market.
Quote from: Henry Sugar on October 18, 2011, 03:21:40 PM
Comparison of Fielder and Mo Vaughn, just because I like pretty pictures. Forecasts Fielder for about three more productive years.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=4613&playerid3=899&playerid4=&playerid5
That seems like quite a leap to make based on the graphs you linked to? ZiPS (which Fangraphs and numerous othere sites use for projections) actually project Fielder to have some pretty good staying power over the upcoming years (as opposed to Mo Vaughn).
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7068218/how-milwaukee-brewers-cope-prince-fielder (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7068218/how-milwaukee-brewers-cope-prince-fielder)
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 18, 2011, 03:31:50 PM
I do completely dismiss the possibility of him accepting it, or anything close to it. The guys is in his prime baseball years right now. Short of getting hit over the head with a blunt object, what on God's green earth would cause him to sign a one year contract, when teams will be offering him 6+?
The flaw in your thinking seems to be the league's doubts about his ability, and where that puts him in the pecking order. The guy has a Hall of Fame bat and everyone knows it. Beyond that, Pujols for example is 4 years older than Fielder (at least), and is definitely entering the back side of his career. Fielder will get the bigger/longer contract this year. He doesn't need to wait a year. Baseball contracts are about years much more than they are dollars. Waiting a year doesn't help him, it can only hurt him.
Of the guys you mentions, Reyes and Fielder are going to get the longest-term deals, likely followed by Sabathia, Pujols and Wilson, . K-Rod is no more than a 2-3 year contract guy, especially in light of guys like Papelbon, Bell and Madsen on the market.
I wouldn't bet on Fielder getting a bigger/longer deal than Pujols. Albert may be 4 years older, but he's also a much, much beter player than Prince. This is the 1st year Fielder ever had a better WAR than Pujols and even then he only beat him by 0.4 with Pujols missing 15 games and having 2 of the worst months of his career to start the season (WAR according to fangraphs). If I was a gm, I'd be confident that Pujols will have more value over the next 6-8 years than Fielder.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 18, 2011, 03:31:50 PM
I do completely dismiss the possibility of him accepting it, or anything close to it. The guys is in his prime baseball years right now. Short of getting hit over the head with a blunt object, what on God's green earth would cause him to sign a one year contract, when teams will be offering him 6+?
The flaw in your thinking seems to be the league's doubts about his ability, and where that puts him in the pecking order. The guy has a Hall of Fame bat and everyone knows it. Beyond that, Pujols for example is 4 years older than Fielder (at least), and is definitely entering the back side of his career. Fielder will get the bigger/longer contract this year. He doesn't need to wait a year. Baseball contracts are about years much more than they are dollars. Waiting a year doesn't help him, it can only hurt him.
Of the guys you mentions, Reyes and Fielder are going to get the longest-term deals, likely followed by Sabathia, Pujols and Wilson, . K-Rod is no more than a 2-3 year contract guy, especially in light of guys like Papelbon, Bell and Madsen on the market.
I agree with everything except for Pujols not getting a longer contract. He'll get a 10 year, $200+ million deal. That was rumored to be the Cardinals original offer to him, which he declined. He won't go below that.
Fielder will get probably around an 8 year, $160 million deal.
Quote from: jmayer1 on October 18, 2011, 03:23:13 PM
How is offering Fielder arbitration a high-risk move? If he accepts (never, ever going to happen) they work out a 1-year deal. Of course they are going to offer him arbitration, if they don't the Brewers get no compensation.
It would be high-risk, high-reward for Fielder, not the Brewers. (I only took enough English to meet the minimum requirements, so perhaps I didn't structure the paragraph properly, if so, my bad.) But isn't Boras' SOP inherently high-risk, high-reward?...
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 18, 2011, 03:31:50 PM
I do completely dismiss the possibility of him accepting it, or anything close to it. The guys is in his prime baseball years right now. Short of getting hit over the head with a blunt object, what on God's green earth would cause him to sign a one year contract, when teams will be offering him 6+?
You're assuming he can get 6+ years right now... my argument is that I wouldn't bank on that. Moreover, Boras has already established that he wants 8yrs/$200M... if that's the goal, and it's not achievable this year, wouldn't you wait a year if you thought it would be achievable next year? In other words, why would Prince take a 8yr/$160M contract today if he thinks he can accept arbitration for $20M and get a 7yr/$180M contract next year?
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on October 18, 2011, 03:31:50 PM
The flaw in your thinking seems to be the league's doubts about his ability, and where that puts him in the pecking order. The guy has a Hall of Fame bat and everyone knows it. Beyond that, Pujols for example is 4 years older than Fielder (at least), and is definitely entering the back side of his career. Fielder will get the bigger/longer contract this year. He doesn't need to wait a year. Baseball contracts are about years much more than they are dollars. Waiting a year doesn't help him, it can only hurt him.
No... the league's doubts have nothing to do with his ability; they have to do with his future. (Granted he has a HOF bat, but unfortunately it comes with a AAA glove.) Regardless, his spot in the pecking order has very little to do with what he brings to the table. Rather, I'm basing his position as the #4 FA based upon the following (in order of importance):
1) The specific needs of each MLB team
2) The availability of other high-profile players
3) The ability and/or willingness of teams to meet Boras' demands
4) The marginal value of Fielder vs. an "average replacement"
In short, my underlying rationale is that the baseball market is going to suck this year. In most places, attendance is down, ratings are down, season ticket renewals are down, teams are struggling with revenue enhancements, etc. and the economy just plain sucks. Not many people, baseball executives included, are going to take many risks right now, and corporations are hoarding cash. This is not a political statement, but we should see a revival in personal outlays and corporate spending in 2012. If you have the wherewithal, the smart move for anyone looking to sell - be it an asset or your services long term - is to hold serve for a year and take advantage of a market on the upswing next year.
EDIT: For those wanting to espouse the "he could get hurt" argument, keep in mind the Brewers have put long-term deals on the table each of the past five years, only to be rejected each time. He could get hurt in 2012, but he could have just as easily been hurt any of the past six years, too, but he eschewed financial security for the opportunity of a big payday. Again - high risk, high reward... it's been the mantra all along, why should it change now?
Quote from: Benny B on October 18, 2011, 04:29:09 PM
In other words, why would Prince take a 8yr/$160M contract today if he thinks he can accept arbitration for $20M and get a 7yr/$180M contract next year?
Because he's not stupid.
Quote from: Benny B on October 18, 2011, 04:29:09 PM
EDIT: For those wanting to espouse the "he could get hurt" argument, keep in mind the Brewers have put long-term deals on the table each of the past five years, only to be rejected each time. He could get hurt in 2012, but he could have just as easily been hurt any of the past six years, too, but he eschewed financial security for the opportunity of a big payday. Again - high risk, high reward... it's been the mantra all along, why should it change now?
Apples and oranges...the Brewers controlled him back then and he had no shot at the open market and the positive impact that can have on years and dollars. That has changed now. The hometown discount was inherent in those offers. The Brewers no longer have that leverage. He has been waiting for the opportunity to cash in for years, and everyone knew it. His last offer was reported at 5/$100M, and granted that was just months from his free agency, but he turned it down because he knows darn well he will get in the neighborhood of 50% or more than that this year. That's not a small difference.
I would love for the Crew to get Reyes, or a big bat to replace Prince, etc etc. Won't ever happen though. The Brewers have shockingly little financial flexibility this offseason, despite the Prince contract coming off the books. The first year of Rickie's extension kicks in, and he's due a $6.5mm raise. Hart is set for a $2.5mm raise. Braun and Yo get over $2mm raises each. Through arbitration, Marcum and McGehee are each projected to get over $2.5mm raises each. (Even if you don't like McGehee as the solution at 3rd, he would still be a valuable commodity in a trade and is a bargain gamble to bounce back at that price). That's $18mm right there.
Moral of the story - that $15.5mm is going to get drank up really fast. And thats without patching other holes the team will have (bullpen - Hawkins, Saito's deals are up, SS if we buy out Yuni, a couple of wily vets to replace Counsell/Kotsay.)
Quote from: MUBurrow on October 18, 2011, 05:21:10 PM
I would love for the Crew to get Reyes, or a big bat to replace Prince, etc etc. Won't ever happen though. The Brewers have shockingly little financial flexibility this offseason, despite the Prince contract coming off the books. The first year of Rickie's extension kicks in, and he's due a $6.5mm raise. Hart is set for a $2.5mm raise. Braun and Yo get over $2mm raises each. Through arbitration, Marcum and McGehee are each projected to get over $2.5mm raises each. (Even if you don't like McGehee as the solution at 3rd, he would still be a valuable commodity in a trade and is a bargain gamble to bounce back at that price). That's $18mm right there.
Moral of the story - that $15.5mm is going to get drank up really fast. And thats without patching other holes the team will have (bullpen - Hawkins, Saito's deals are up, SS if we buy out Yuni, a couple of wily vets to replace Counsell/Kotsay.)
Don't know. I think Antanasio increases the payroll this year. A couple of reasons. First, coming off of the divisional title/playoffs, he wants to keep the momentum. That is especially true since he acquired Marcum/Grienke last year. Window is still there.
I think McGehee is gone. Not a good fielder and his bat did nothing this year. Same with Uni.
My 2nd reason is that if they do make an offer for Fielder, it would be awfully difficult to sit tight and explain to the fans that you do not have the money when you just offerred it to one player.
Braun is pushing for Reyes. I would love him on the Brewers.
Quote from: MUMac on October 19, 2011, 07:15:04 AM
Don't know. I think Antanasio increases the payroll this year. A couple of reasons. First, coming off of the divisional title/playoffs, he wants to keep the momentum. That is especially true since he acquired Marcum/Grienke last year. Window is still there.
I think McGehee is gone. Not a good fielder and his bat did nothing this year. Same with Uni.
My 2nd reason is that if they do make an offer for Fielder, it would be awfully difficult to sit tight and explain to the fans that you do not have the money when you just offerred it to one player.
Braun is pushing for Reyes. I would love him on the Brewers.
Yuni actually had one of, if not his best, year in pro ball this year. He was 2nd in SS RBIs.
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on October 19, 2011, 08:23:41 AM
Yuni actually had one of, if not his best, year in pro ball this year. He was 2nd in SS RBIs.
He may have, but he still hurt the team way more than he helped. His crappy fielding, poor range, and lack of baseball sense at the plate killed them all year, except for those few weeks when he got hot. He's gotta go.
Quote from: BrewCity on October 19, 2011, 08:43:57 AM
He may have, but he still hurt the team way more than he helped. His crappy fielding, poor range, and lack of baseball sense at the plate killed them all year, except for those few weeks when he got hot. He's gotta go.
Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be heart broken to see him go. Just need someone who can at least fill his shoes though.
Quote from: marqptm on October 18, 2011, 01:23:54 PM
If they were 'Moneyball' guys they wouldn't be upgrading your defense.
I was using "Moneyball" pretty loosely. I was defining Moneyball in the "use all the money you would have paid for one guy to fill multiple holes" sense.
I know BB doesn't really care about defense that much, but you need to admit, it cost the Brewers in the NLCS.
The problem is that his 2012 salary ($6M) isn't worth is puny WAR (0.7). It won't be hard to get at least the same level of player for much less money.
Actually, the Brewers only have about $13M coming off the books excluding minor league contracts. Total major league payroll for 2011 is going to be between $86-88M. The projected 2012 Opening Day payroll is about $73M by my estimate based on an assumed roster (at this point) of:
OF: Morgan*, Gomez, Braun*, Hart*
IF: Green*, Gamel*, Weeks*, McGehee
SP: Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson
RP: De La Cruz, Kintzler, Dillard, Stetter, Axford, Estrada, Parra, Loe
C: Lucroy*, Kottaras
(*Projected starters)
Granted, some of the above may be released... I simply based my assumption on who from the Sept 28 roster is under club control next year.
So as it stands, even with a slight boost in payroll to $90M, the Brewers have $17M to spend on a SS and (probably) a utility infielder. Even if Reyes could be had for $17M, that still leaves two unproven guys at the corner infield positions, an offense that lacks a true clean-up hitter, and a bullpen that won't be as dominant as it was in late innings.
If Melvin wants to shuffle things around to free up more money to address multiple needs, barring a trade, the candidates are: Gomez, Stetter, Kottaras, Parra, Loe, Morgan and McGehee. Of that group, I would say Parra & Loe are expendable - that's $3M freed up between the two. I'm not sure Gomez is going anywhere because his speed and defense alone are probably worth a few million, and I'm only projecting him to make $1.8M next year. As a player, Morgan is a bargain at a projected $1.0M salary if he can replicate what he did on the field this year; if McGehee could regain his stroke, he's also worth a projected million sitting on the bench. Unless they trade for a CF, Morgan probably stays and Casey goes. If Parra is sent off, the Brewers will undoubtedly retain Stetter as their lefty specialist (something they didn't have this year), and Kottaras likely isn't going anywhere either.
So now the Brewers have $21M to spend and need a starting SS, a late-inning reliever or two, a utility infielder, a clean-up hitter, and a bat on the bench (granted, two of those needs can be filled by the same player). None of those are likely to be filled from within, and $21M isn't going to get you top tier talent at all of those positions. So look for Melvin to be active on the trade market again this year. It's going to be an interesting off-season for the Crew.
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on October 19, 2011, 08:23:41 AM
Yuni actually had one of, if not his best, year in pro ball this year. He was 2nd in SS RBIs.
He played his way out of KC and likely here. Hit o k, but clutch hitting an issue. Too much of a freelance at the plate. Still do not understand swinging at a 2-0 pitch after 7 straight balls were thrown in the Playoffs. Makes some plays in the field, but overall a weak spot in the line-up.
The Brewers will likely let him go for the $2MM.
Quote from: MUMac on October 19, 2011, 07:15:04 AM
Don't know. I think Antanasio increases the payroll this year. A couple of reasons. First, coming off of the divisional title/playoffs, he wants to keep the momentum. That is especially true since he acquired Marcum/Grienke last year. Window is still there.
Braun is pushing for Reyes. I would love him on the Brewers.
I agree there is a window there, but I think its a narrow one, and is better served by being a major deadline buyer than a FA buyer. Marcum and Greinke will not both be here in 2013, so the window we're talking about here is all of one year before some sort of youth movement/restocking will have to happen. I would hate to give a 29 year old, injury prone SS heavily reliant on his speed for value a massive deal just because we thought we could win this year. Similarly with Prince, I don't think the Brewers can afford the gamble to pay him anywhere close to his market worth. Those kinds of gambles can doom a mid-market team. If we can put a decent team together that is close at the deadline, lets see what rentals are out there for big bats and go for it that way (if we have enough in the farm to make it work).
Looking at FA's, there aren't a lot of guys who jump off the page as potential value (but i guess if they jumped off the page, they wouldn't be values) For a mid-back end of the lineup type to protect the 3, 4 I think maybe Edwin Encarnacion would be a nice 5 hitter and plays a decent 3B. If we move Hart to 1B instead of going after Pena, etc, I'd really like the Brewers to take a look at Ryan Ludwick. He's a pretty good hitter with some power, and depressed numbers after spending time in SD might drive his market down. Xavier Nady is a good bench option that can play both 1B and RF competently. Jorge Cantu, when healthy, can also start at either infield corner and has a nice little bat. I think those are the types we're looking at as far as FA signings. We can't afford the money/risk with much more.
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on October 19, 2011, 08:23:41 AM
Yuni actually had one of, if not his best, year in pro ball this year. He was 2nd in SS RBIs.
6th in SS RBI's.
Quote from: MUMac on October 19, 2011, 02:59:22 PM
He played his way out of KC and likely here. Hit o k, but clutch hitting an issue. Too much of a freelance at the plate. Still do not understand swinging at a 2-0 pitch after 7 straight balls were thrown in the Playoffs. Makes some plays in the field, but overall a weak spot in the line-up.
The Brewers will likely let him go for the $2MM.
Chuckie hacks on 2-0.
Yuni shouldn't.
Quote from: Benny B on October 19, 2011, 11:17:57 AM
Actually, the Brewers only have about $13M coming off the books excluding minor league contracts.
Huh? The Fielder contract is $15.5M...Betancourt's option is $6M. Those are two players that the Brewers had all year too.
Quote from: MUMac on October 19, 2011, 02:59:22 PM
He played his way out of KC and likely here. Hit o k, but clutch hitting an issue. Too much of a freelance at the plate. Still do not understand swinging at a 2-0 pitch after 7 straight balls were thrown in the Playoffs. Makes some plays in the field, but overall a weak spot in the line-up.
The Brewers will likely let him go for the $2MM.
That's the beauty!!! Part of the trade deal was that KC paid Milwaukee the $2M buyout.
That being said, Yuni B was what we all thought he was going to be... no more, no less. But what sticks out in my mind is what he became in Milwaukee --- the human rally killer. Consider the following:
2011 Batting Average:Overall: .252 (career .268)
Bases Empty: .284 (career .265)
Runners On: .211 (career .273)
Bases Loaded: .143 (career .250)
If you go back and examine the 2011 season, I would say that Yuni B's glove contributed to as many wins as it did losses... so that's a wash. But there were at least a dozen games where Yuni B failed to deliver a key RBI late in the game with a runner on third or bases loaded with less than two outs.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 19, 2011, 03:20:50 PM
Huh? The Fielder contract is $15.5M...Betancourt's option is $6M. Those are two players that the Brewers had all year too.
When I say "coming off the books," I mean the delta between the payroll of their roster in 2011 vs. what is projected for 2012. If we want to be technical, the Brewers have $32.7M less in payroll liabilities (based on 2011 figures) for those departing as free agents but 2012 raises for players under contract/control eat up $20.0M of that. Net difference: $12.7M which I rounded up to $13M.
Betancourt's option has no bearing on the above. Since KC already paid the buyout, that is neither money lost nor found in 2012. What I count is the $4M salary they paid in 2011 vs. $0 they'll pay in 2012.
OK, thank you.
We are all witnesses. Pujols is by far the best player today. 5 or 6 more seasons and he'll be in the discussion for the best player...of all time. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't resign with the Cards.
Quote from: jmayer1 on October 23, 2011, 02:52:04 AM
We are all witnesses. Pujols is by far the best player today. 5 or 6 more seasons and he'll be in the discussion for the best player...of all time. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't resign with the Cards.
I hope he does. For $200 Million. And I hope the contract cripples them.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_world_series_game_five_la_russa_102411
Its too bad LaRussa has rubbed off on Albert.
And as far as I am concerned, he is the best first baseman of all time... and damn close to the best player of all time.
I effing hate the Cardinals. And right now I'm not all that fond of the Rangers either for blowing it TWICE when they had St. Louis down to their final strike in Game 6.
I heard a stat on the radio the other day. St. Louis has been pushed to the brink, trailing 3-2 in the World Series now six times. In five cases, they came back to win in seven. Screw the Cards and La Russa. I really detest that team.
Quote from: brewcity77 on October 29, 2011, 05:59:44 AM
I effing hate the Cardinals. And right now I'm not all that fond of the Rangers either for blowing it TWICE when they had St. Louis down to their final strike in Game 6.
I heard a stat on the radio the other day. St. Louis has been pushed to the brink, trailing 3-2 in the World Series now six times. In five cases, they came back to win in seven. Screw the Cards and La Russa. I really detest that team.
11 Time World Series CHAMPIONS!!!!!
The devil has finally retired!