Not directed at MU82.

I am shocked. Truly shocked at the Jan 6 alternate reality. Sad sad day for America. The most distressing thing for American politics in my lifetime. Nothing comes close.

So, what if everyone ignored all the propaganda stations and instead studied bias and why we are illogical and so easily nudged and influenced into an alternate reality. And apply this knowledge to the self. This can apply to both extremes both parties. We all can do better and shut off the crazy and be careful who has sway (and for some control of) our minds, over what we think.

And for perspective, I am a former card carrying republican who has attended conventions as a delegate. I am no longer a republican. Not trumps new republican party. Jan 6th was a horror show. Nothing less. To deny it is, well I’ll stop there. The psychology on why people need to deny and over identification with a party or tribe is fascinating. Let’s leave it there.

It’s remarkable. They have such fealty to their cult leader that they deny what their own eyes and ears witnessed. But that’s the power of a cult.

GOO, I’m sorry about what happened to your former party. I’ve heard many stories similar to yours, including my very best Marquette friend. The party abandoned its principles to worship a charlatan. A damn shame.

Seems the nuns who helped found the college where Butker spoke aren't so keen on his speech.

Instead of promoting unity in our church, our nation, and the world, his comments seem to have fostered division. One of our concerns was the assertion that being a homemaker is the highest calling for a woman. We sisters have dedicated our lives to God and God’s people, including the many women whom we have taught and influenced during the past 160 years. These women have made a tremendous difference in the world in their roles as wives and mothers and through their God-given gifts in leadership, scholarship, and their careers.

Our community has taught young women and men not just how to be “homemakers” in a limited sense, but rather how to make a Gospel-centered, compassionate home within themselves where they can welcome others as Christ, empowering them to be the best versions of themselves. We reject a narrow definition of what it means to be Catholic. We are faithful members of the Catholic Church who embrace and promote the values of the Gospel, St. Benedict, and Vatican II and the teachings of Pope Francis.


https://www.mountosb.org/

Meh. What do nuns know about Catholicism? Obviously not as much as a NFL kicker does.

I guess I know it is political. I just don’t understand why, I guess. But it is funny how the most unabashed conservative I know has two Teslas and a brand new hybrid supercar (I’m embarrassed to say the name, crazy expensive). But he is also a tech evangelist and seems I influenced by others.

And I don’t know the recent advances in self drive. Really something.

Oh, I’m not fully there yet either. My car is now driving me to work and home without intervention, roundabouts and highway mostly, some neighborhood.  But I still have two hands on the wheel at roundabouts and ready to brake just in case. It will be an adjustment to be comfortable. And I am a slower driver and it accelerates to fast for my preference. I know it might be able to be adjusted or it is driving like a typical driver. But as my son says if all cars were running this software it would be safe because they won’t hit each other. It’s the interacting with the human drivers that makes it scary.

But I trust it more than plenty of cabs I’ve been in, so that might be the comparison.  I don’t have to tell it to get off the phone or stop showing me pictures while looking back in traffic.

Send this to the new AD, he needs to see this.  We must avoid scheduling:

Big Ten - Shaka has a losing record against them except for Illinois, he beat them twice
SEC - Shaka has a winning record against them but if he loses twice it'll become a losing record and then we'll never be able to beat them
Big XII - Shaka couldn't compete in that conference when it wasn't even as good as it is now
ACC - The NC State loss looms too large, Notre Dame won't even play us anymore
PAC 12 - Doesn't exist
UConn - The gap is simply too large, growing
St Thomas - Still haven't recovered
UWM - Play it safe and continue to dodge the loss
Secret Scrimmages - A single loss will cost 2-3 seed lines minimum

With the Scoop collective intelligence, why do we even need an AD?

If there is negative news coming, as of now I think it is good for the markets. When does negative news become bad news?  I don’t know. The markets want to see unemployment above 4%. That is good news for the markets and for now would be bullish.  The fed won’t get what it wants without breaking the employment market., that’s been my opinion for a while.

Another perspective to consider is from someone in industrial real estate in Dallas and Atlanta. Investor, owner,  developer.  He says the amount of manufacturing capacity and industrial building going on is something he has never seen except to compare it to how China used to be. Literally comparing it to a China boom scenario.  From his perspective and his periscope view into the economy things are booming like he has never seen.  But things can be booming and falling apart at the same time, especially in real estate which often is mistimed, as we know. But it also is a buffer against a big down turn unless financing falls apart like in 2008-9 where projects literally got abandoned that were in process. That seems like less of a risk now; but what we don’t think is a risk can be.  When things are going well there might be more risk, we just are not seeing it. When things are going bad we might see all sorts of risks, when there actually is less risk especially long term. Buffet’s way of investing. He understood some version of negativity bias before anyone even if it didn’t have a name.

I don’t pay much attention to predictors, no one can predict consistently so as we know Buffet is the model to stay long and invest more when things are really ugly, but I like to get Prof Jeremy Siegels perspective. Last I heard Siegel thinks we could be in a bull run for the  rest of the decade due to factors including AI. I think if one invested like Buffet but used index funds, and on the margins followed Prof Siegels signals,  for marginal adjustments, one could have some fun and try to beat the index funds (fools goal I know and I just keep putting dumb money in and ignore it).

Either way, I just keep investing the same as always. I consciously don’t check in too often (negativity bias demands that we don’t check in too often or change our plans or we will underperform and over react to down turns). I learned my lesson in the Great Recession.  I saw it coming, saw the real estate bubble. Got a lot out of the market. Great move. Except that I was too slow getting back in. I learned not to try to time things, because as I know now one has to get it right twice. And that is simply foolish for me to think I can do that not once but twice.

Because of our bias’s I’ve decided  to expect to get slaughtered once in a while and see 40 or 50 percent losses, but don’t let it affect the long term strategy. And anything you don’t need to use in the short term should be invested for the long term. Maybe I’m lucky, as I consider most of what I have invested in the market for future generations, so 80% plus is long term. And if  I greatly outlive life expectancy than I should have invested for the long term anyway.  And I’m one of those that doesn’t hope to live to 100 or God help me longer. Never outlive all of your friends and some of your children - just too sad and painful.