So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/1/2024?

[Dr. Blackheart]

I'm contacting the leg TAMU!

Creepy

[willie warrior]

Whisky loss still haunting us. Why is Kansas 2 and we are 7
Answer: Whisky loss

[Uncle Rico]

Whisky loss still haunting us. Why is Kansas 2 and we are 7
Answer: Whisky loss

I don’t think we’ll ever recover, wilbur.  We can’t claim a championship if we’re not number 1 on December 11. 

[Shooter McGavin]

I think the appropriate questions is Where do they want to be ranked…

That’s funny!

[willie warrior]

I don’t think we’ll ever recover, wilbur.  We can’t claim a championship if we’re not number 1 on December 11.

Give us all a break Rita. You professing to think? Never happen. Doodle, maybe.

[SaveOD238]

I don’t think we’ll ever recover, wilbur.  We can’t claim a championship if we’re not number 1 on December 11.

The eventual national champion has been in the top 12 on December 11 (er...Week 6 poll) every year since 2004.

[The Thing]

Laying down a bet on each of the top 12 teams as we speak…Seriously, that’s an interesting stat, this is true?

[JWags85]

Northwestern climbs in at #25.

Hell of a comeback for Chris Collins in Evanston.  Follows up their first NCAA tourney ever with 5 straight years of sub .500 records and never finishing above 10th in conference.  Then swings it around out of nowhere to finish second in the B10 last year and win another NCAA game.  Looking good for back to back NCAA berths which seemed unthinkable not long ago.

[Jay Bee]

Hell of a comeback for Chris Collins in Evanston.  Follows up their first NCAA tourney ever with 5 straight years of sub .500 records and never finishing above 10th in conference.  Then swings it around out of nowhere to finish second in the B10 last year and win another NCAA game.  Looking good for back to back NCAA berths which seemed unthinkable not long ago.

8-10 seed, sure. Super old with plenty of continuity. Back to weak next year

[StillAWarrior]

Laying down a bet on each of the top 12 teams as we speak…Seriously, that’s an interesting stat, this is true?

It is true. I've been seeing it around so I looked into it.  As far as the bet goes, you might want to think that over. My initial reaction when I saw your post was to think, "Yeah. Me too." But then I took a look. On DraftKings right now, placing $1 on each of those teams to win the natty ($12 "invested") would return between $11 and $61 if one of them won. Sounds pretty good. But when I looked at the actual results I decided I didn't want to get swayed by Villanova's 2016 run. That's the team that sets the "Top 12" cutoff. If you take out that outlier, the value proposition looks a bit different. Here are the champions since 2004 and their Week 6 rankings:

2004 - UConn (1)
2005 - UNC (4)
2006 - Florida (7)
2007 - Florida (5)
2008 - Kansas (3)
2009 - UNC (1)
2010 - Duke (7)
2011 - UConn (4)
2012 - Kentucky (3)
2013 - Louisville (6)
2014 - UConn (9)
2015 - Duke (2)
2016 - Villanova (12)
2017 - UNC (7)
2018 - Villanova (1)
2019 - Virginia (6)
2020 - No Champion
2021 - Baylor (2)
2022 - Kansas (7)
2023 - UConn (3)

So, if you recognize that Nos. 10-12 are outliers, the odds of hitting a larger payout go down pretty dramatically. It's still likely net positive, but not by a lot.

For the Marquette fans, I think that the real statistic isn't "since 2004 the eventual champion has been in the Week 6 Top 12" but is "since 2004 the eventual champion has been in the Week 6 Top 9 every season but one -- and has been No. 7 more than any other rank."

[MU82]

Hell of a comeback for Chris Collins in Evanston.  Follows up their first NCAA tourney ever with 5 straight years of sub .500 records and never finishing above 10th in conference.  Then swings it around out of nowhere to finish second in the B10 last year and win another NCAA game.  Looking good for back to back NCAA berths which seemed unthinkable not long ago.

He's fortunate to be at a program that has a small following and in a job that has relatively little pressure.

Very few "basketball schools" would keep a coach around whose first 8 seasons produced 1 NCAA bid, 1 winning conference record, and career records of 133-150 overall and 56-113 in the conference. All capped by 5 straight losing seasons in which the conference record was 26-71.

But given that it's not a basketball school - and I seriously don't mean that as a slight, just a fact - I do agree that it has been a great turnaround for Collins. If he can keep it going, it will have been an incredible achievement. DePaul fans are envious, or at least they should be if there still are any left.

[brewcity77]

It is true. I've been seeing it around so I looked into it.  As far as the bet goes, you might want to think that over. My initial reaction when I saw your post was to think, "Yeah. Me too." But then I took a look. On DraftKings right now, placing $1 on each of those teams to win the natty ($12 "invested") would return between $11 and $61 if one of them won. Sounds pretty good. But when I looked at the actual results I decided I didn't want to get swayed by Villanova's 2016 run. That's the team that sets the "Top 12" cutoff. If you take out that outlier, the value proposition looks a bit different. Here are the champions since 2004 and their Week 6 rankings:

2004 - UConn (1)
2005 - UNC (4)
2006 - Florida (7)
2007 - Florida (5)
2008 - Kansas (3)
2009 - UNC (1)
2010 - Duke (7)
2011 - UConn (4)
2012 - Kentucky (3)
2013 - Louisville (6)
2014 - UConn (9)
2015 - Duke (2)
2016 - Villanova (12)
2017 - UNC (7)
2018 - Villanova (1)
2019 - Virginia (6)
2020 - No Champion
2021 - Baylor (2)
2022 - Kansas (7)
2023 - UConn (3)

So, if you recognize that Nos. 10-12 are outliers, the odds of hitting a larger payout go down pretty dramatically. It's still likely net positive, but not by a lot.

For the Marquette fans, I think that the real statistic isn't "since 2004 the eventual champion has been in the Week 6 Top 12" but is "since 2004 the eventual champion has been in the Week 6 Top 9 every season but one -- and has been No. 7 more than any other rank."

Good stuff, thanks for the extra research and added context.

[Scoop Snoop]

DePaul fans are envious, or at least they should be if there still are any left.

I heard that they were listed on the Endangered Species list.

It has been so long since they were relevant. Realistically, they may never resurrect their program, based upon the past 20 years. I guess substituting their womens team for their mens would be a non-starter with the NCAA and BE. 

[The Thing]

It is true. I've been seeing it around so I looked into it.  As far as the bet goes, you might want to think that over. My initial reaction when I saw your post was to think, "Yeah. Me too." But then I took a look. On DraftKings right now, placing $1 on each of those teams to win the natty ($12 "invested") would return between $11 and $61 if one of them won. Sounds pretty good. But when I looked at the actual results I decided I didn't want to get swayed by Villanova's 2016 run. That's the team that sets the "Top 12" cutoff. If you take out that outlier, the value proposition looks a bit different. Here are the champions since 2004 and their Week 6 rankings:

2004 - UConn (1)
2005 - UNC (4)
2006 - Florida (7)
2007 - Florida (5)
2008 - Kansas (3)
2009 - UNC (1)
2010 - Duke (7)
2011 - UConn (4)
2012 - Kentucky (3)
2013 - Louisville (6)
2014 - UConn (9)
2015 - Duke (2)
2016 - Villanova (12)
2017 - UNC (7)
2018 - Villanova (1)
2019 - Virginia (6)
2020 - No Champion
2021 - Baylor (2)
2022 - Kansas (7)
2023 - UConn (3)

So, if you recognize that Nos. 10-12 are outliers, the odds of hitting a larger payout go down pretty dramatically. It's still likely net positive, but not by a lot.

For the Marquette fans, I think that the real statistic isn't "since 2004 the eventual champion has been in the Week 6 Top 12" but is "since 2004 the eventual champion has been in the Week 6 Top 9 every season but one -- and has been No. 7 more than any other rank."

It is stuff like this that brings me to Scoop and allows me to put up with some of the obnoxious posters on this site (looking at you NLW). Thanks for the deep dive on this!

[lawdog77]

The eventual national champion has been in the top 12 on December 11 (er...Week 6 poll) every year since 2004.

ESPN is stealing your material

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/39097768/history-says-one-12-men-college-basketball-teams-win-national-title

[SaveOD238]

ESPN is stealing your material

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/39097768/history-says-one-12-men-college-basketball-teams-win-national-title

Well I got it from Reddit (and it was posted there last year too), so no credit to me.

[TallTitan34]

Borges 7

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We're pretty much a lock for #6. May have been in danger due to our lackluster performance over the Tommies but the three teams right behind us all lost and the fourth only played UWGB. Best guess:

1. Purdue
2. Kansas
3. Houston
4. Arizona
5. UConn
6. Marquette
7. Oklahoma
8. Tennessee
9. Kentucky
10. North Carolina
11. Gonzaga
12. Baylor
13. Florida Atlantic
14. Illinois
15. BYU
16. Creighton
17. Texas
18. Clemson
19. Colorado State
20. Duke
21. James Madison
22. Virginia
23. Miami (Fl)
24. Auburn
25. Memphis

[willie warrior]

We're pretty much a lock for #6. May have been in danger due to our lackluster performance over the Tommies but the three teams right behind us all lost and the fourth only played UWGB. Best guess:

1. Purdue
2. Kansas
3. Houston
4. Arizona
5. UConn
6. Marquette
7. Oklahoma
8. Tennessee
9. Kentucky
10. North Carolina
11. Gonzaga
12. Baylor
13. Florida Atlantic
14. Illinois
15. BYU
16. Creighton
17. Texas
18. Clemson
19. Colorado State
20. Duke
21. James Madison
22. Virginia
23. Miami (Fl)
24. Auburn
25. Memphis

Still can't get Kansas. Rest I can see. We kicked their asses. Only explanation. Bad beat by useless Wisconsin. That will drag around our neck all year

[TallTitan34]

Carino 6

[Uncle Rico]

Still can't get Kansas. Rest I can see. We kicked their asses. Only explanation. Bad beat by useless Wisconsin. That will drag around our neck all year

And the St. Thomas loss

[muwarrior69]

So any team that drops out of the top 12 on week 6 still has a shot at winning it all.

[Newsdreams]

And the St. Thomas loss

Two albatrosses hanging on MU's neck, cursed!

[mugrad_89]

Goodman had us at 6. Seth Davis has Marquette at 5.  On the other hand, he’s the voter who I predicted would completely overreact to the Michigan St win - he has them at 19.  🙄

[MarquetteMike1977]

Guessing Marquette remains the top 2 loss team in the country at #6