Oso planning to go pro
They aren't "free points" and I have never heard a coach say that. They are "free throws" or more accurately "free shots."
No. It's not a good indicator and your thoughts are complete off base and unsupported by facts.Ask Izzo. #328 in the nation. Final Four. Ask Steve Fischer.
TWhether it is a good indicator or not, I have no doubt we can all find stats that "prove" or "disprove" their importance.
I think it is safe to assume that a team that shot 58% from the line missed a number of front ends of one and ones. Therefore, the 19 free throw attempts might go to 20+ free throw attemtps, which would result in a bigger point pick up. In a close game, where the other team is fouling you to get back in the game it becomes very important to hit the front end of a one and ones.
Valid point. There are a total of 6 one and one opportunities in a game for a team (fouls 7, 8, and 9), so a team shooting 58% you would expect to miss 2 per game (assuming no shooting fouls). So the team would be missing an additional 2 free throws per game.
My coaches called them free points, but I understand the quibble I suppose
The flip side of that, Wisconsin in the championship and a top 10 FT shooting team. Whether it is a good indicator or not, I have no doubt we can all find stats that "prove" or "disprove" their importance. At the end of the day, the task at hand is to score more than the opponent. Shooting a high FT% will equate to more points and more point opportunities (making the bonuses). There are certainly more important stats, but cashing in on free point opportunities is one that many (not all) good teams take advantage of.
I would expect us to play at a more rapid pace this year as we have more horses. Couple that with Luke being healthy there is a good chance he will get to the line more often, so that the importance of FT% will ramp out. I get JB's point that even if you factor in all of that the difference between 70% and 58% isn't going to be more than a point a game and a lot of things are more likely to improve our W/L % than that. I also that the biggest thing Luke can do to help us win is to up that defensive rebounding percentage. Even from a psychological/coaching standpoint, giving up second chance points are more painful than leaving points at the FT line, IMO.
Looking at last year's Big East regular season game by game stats. In the fourteen losses there were five games that we missed more free throws than the losing margin. Of course game management would of changed as the score changed, but there was the potential for 5 more wins based on free throw shooting alone. This does not include the OT loss to Georgetown where we lost by 10, but only missed 6 free throws. Obviously, making one more free throw in regulation could of meant a win there. That is 6 potential wins. I think it is reasonable to assume that we could of won three of those (especially the two overtime games), if we were not a mediocre free throw shooting team last year.
The difference between 70% and 58% is more than 1pt man! Are you kidding me?
But how many free throws did the opposing team miss in those games? It goes both ways.
In our first loss to Georgetown 59-66 that is not included in those six losses we made 8-12, but Georgetown made 23-28. I am assuming at the end of the game we were fouling Georgetown and by the stats they were making those critical free throws.During the Big East regular season we made 196 free throws and our opponents made 244 for a deficit of 48 points or 2.67 points per game. One of Buzz's favorite statistics was making more free throws than the other team attempted. Last year's Big East season we made more than the other team attempted twice and went 1-1 in those games. There were two games where we made as many free throws as the other team attempted and we won both of those games. In four games we made as many or more as the opponents attempts and we went 3-1. We went 1-13 in games we made less than the opponents attempted.
But you specifically said that we had X amount of games where we missed more free throws than we lost by, so we would've had a chance to win the games had we made all our free throws. Sure, but I'm guessing our opponent also missed some free throws in those games, so it goes both ways.In the Georgetown game you reference as not counting because we went to OT, we missed 4 FTs and they missed 5, so in reality, instead of us winning in regulation had we just made our free throws, they would've won had neither team missed any free throws.In just about every single digit loss in college basketball most teams will be able to say, "If we were perfect from the line we make up the difference and might win that game." Sure. But the other team wasn't perfect from the line either. These things even out.
The discussion is about the effect of our free throw shooting improving. On the flip side our opponents free throw shooting could decline. I would argue the most important free throw stat is free throws attempted, because the more free throws you shoot the more likely the other team has foul troubles.
Not only that, but it is an unrealistic expectation for teams to make *every* free throw. Saying "free throws are important," and then extrapolating how many additional games you won if they would have been 100% is pretty useless. Why not say "make every FG," or "grab every rebound?" If you did either of those, you would be pretty much guaranteed to win.I think there is this thought that free throws should be easy. No one is playing defense right? But they aren't necessarily so - that is why FT% hasn't changed. This is why the "free points" adage is dumb.