Kolek planning to go pro
In the last 40 years, we have made it that far how many times? Five? Miracle we made it that far in one of them.
True, but in the 4 years before Wojo got here we made it 3 times.
Yup, and on the front pages of the Tribune and all kinds of other things, too.Just win
Seeding counts. Getting a top 4 seed means the committee considers you one of the 16 best teams in Division I. And the higher your seed, the more the matchups are stacked in your favor (at least from a ranking standpoint).
I see a team with depth, good guards, size, shooters. Not perfect and a lot can go wrong, but there are a lot functional pieces.
Nice data Marcus. I swear I’m over last season, but this is precisely why blowing all those under 4 min TO leads and losing all those close games last year really crushed MU. Holding off Nova and splitting the Conf title, or even winning the last game at home, or even beating SH at the garden and then winning conf tourney (I understand no guarantee we win the final) would have likely giving MU a 4 seed because the overall resume was very strong.With a 4 seed the season would’ve ended with much less pain imo. There would’ve been a conference title to hang the hat on (or possibly a conf tourney title) and IMO MU would’ve lost game 2 or later in the dance rather than the MURRAY St debacle. I’m not saying getting a 4 seed or better would have avoided all the turmoil w the brothers, but it still would have left the season on a much more positive note and the team wouldn’t have the added stress it will have this March to win a game in the NCAA tournament under Wojo/Markus regime. As for this year, a 4 seed or better would be spectacular. The conference is really strong so it won’t be an easy task, 5-8 seed would seem more likely at this point imo. That said, the foundation is there for a top 2/3 BE finish that would earn the top 4 seed[/quoteThe way last year ended was brutal. Holding on in just 1 or 2 of those games would've likely had us a line higher, where 75% of the teams went to the Sweet 16 (as opposed to the 5-line, where 75% lost day one).
Anecdotally, my opinion is that there is a significant drop-off in quality between an 11/12 seed and a 13/14 seed. Gotta be the biggest drop-off in any point in the seeding. IMO, that cliff is a (perhaps the) primary driver of what your analysis found.
The 11-seeds were also skewed by putting all the play in teams on those lines. Still kind of bewildering that teams like Temple, ASU, & St John's, who were all sub-60 going into the tournament, got bids.
Down 1 w 5 seconds left. Doable.
IIRC, the committee said that they valued these teams' SOS. The Johnnies, for instance, beat #1 Duke that year. (And maybe had some other marquee win...I'm forgetting at the moment)
No one gets to the Sweet 16 without winning some that could go either way
I'll stick with my opinion on Gold. He'll be in foul trouble within the first eight minutes.
I feel the same about this team now as I did at the beginning of the season, and how I have felt basically ever since the Hausers left. We are a probably a 7 or 8 seed. I think a realistic expectation is one NCAA tournament win. Sure, we could get lucky, pull a 6 seed and get the upset winner of a 14 vs 3 upset, and somehow make it into the Sweet 16, but it is unlikely. This is not a top 25 team. I do think it is almost certainly an NCAA tournament team. Which means we are probably bound for a typical MU posteason, one and done in the tourney or round of 32.Somewhat depressing. Not as depressing as missing the tournament. But it is reality.
Or, you can look at it like Kenpom does (#23 team in the nation), or that we've had a succesfull non-conference start to the season, or that we have quite literally the best player in the country, a guy whos capable of putting up 40 on any given night. It's not all doom and gloom everyone. I believe this team is better than what many of the debbie downers on this board think it is. I know Wojo hasn't had that success yet. But all it takes to change the narrative are a few late season W's.
I believe this team is better than what many of the debbie downers on this board think it is.