COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[MU82]

From the NYT regarding the 250K "milestone" being passed ...

In the face of this entirely anticipated crisis, Washington is doing very little. After so many months of this tragedy, there is still no coordinated federal response to the virus.

“The general strategy is abdication,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist affiliated with Georgetown University, who says it’s possible that as many as 300,000 more Americans could die of the virus before Inauguration Day, Jan. 20. “There are going to be a lot of unnecessary deaths, a lot of unnecessary cases of Covid that didn’t need to happen.”

There are no signs of any change in strategy coming from the current administration.

President Trump is more focused on litigating a settled election than combating the virus. Since Election Day, he’s held one public event — an update on his administration’s effort to develop and distribute a coronavirus vaccine. Other than traveling to his golf course, the president has remained holed up inside the White House.

At the same time, the government he leads has been offering mixed messages.

On Thursday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that Americans avoid traveling and gathering with relatives for the Thanksgiving holiday. And later in the day the White House coronavirus task force held its first news conference in months, urging Americans to remain vigilant as they wait for a vaccine.

But on Wednesday, Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary, called some local guidelines limiting Thanksgiving gatherings “Orwellian.”

States that have imposed fewer virus containment measures now have the worst outbreaks, according to a New York Times analysis.

[GooooMarquette]

The current positivity rates are absolutely terrifying.

* Wyoming 93%
* South Dakota 56%
* Iowa 50%
* Idaho 44%
* Kansas 43%

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html

[shoothoops]

The current positivity rates are absolutely terrifying.

* Wyoming 93%
* South Dakota 56%
* Iowa 50%
* Idaho 44%
* Kansas 43%

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html

San Francisco and South Dakota have similar populations. 14k cases San Francisco, 60k cases South Dakota.

Masks.

[Warriors4ever]

https://www.wyomingnews.com/coronavirus/wyo-gop-passes-resolution-opposing-state-of-emergency/article_3315f930-d713-53d2-a98c-86d0f2349adf.html

The central committee of the Wyoming GOP asks the governor to rescind his emergency declaration, averring  that Wyoming is not experiencing an high number of deaths from Covid.  The article states that they are currently fourth highest per capita in the country.
I looked at Wyoming news originally because the positivity rate listed above of 93% piqued my curiosity.

[Hards Alumni]

The current positivity rates are absolutely terrifying.

* Wyoming 93%
* South Dakota 56%
* Iowa 50%
* Idaho 44%
* Kansas 43%

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html

Is this because there is a short supply of testing and testing reagents?  Has to be, right?

[mu_hilltopper]

The current positivity rates are absolutely terrifying.

* Wyoming 93%
* South Dakota 56%
* Iowa 50%
* Idaho 44%
* Kansas 43%

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html

That just means the people who have symptoms are getting tested and have it, hey.

People who don't have it aren't getting tested.  Nothing to see here, move along people.

[GooooMarquette]

The numbers are on a relentless upward trajectory nationwide. Current 7-day averages compared to two weeks ago:

New cases: Up 73%
Hospitalizations: Up 50%
Deaths: Up 63%

And the continued increase in new cases means that hospitalizations and deaths will continue to climb at least well into December, and likely longer.

[GooooMarquette]

GOP Senator Rick Scott of FL tests positive...a week after speaking at a crowded, indoor, maskless rally in GA for GOP candidates in runoff elections.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/florida-sen-rick-scott-tests-positive-for-covid-s.html

#2020superspreaderevents

[MU82]

GOP Senator Rick Scott of FL tests positive...a week after speaking at a crowded, indoor, maskless rally in GA for GOP candidates in runoff elections.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/florida-sen-rick-scott-tests-positive-for-covid-s.html

#2020superspreaderevents

Reckless disregard for human life.

Criminal negligence.

[Jockey]

The numbers are on a relentless upward trajectory nationwide. Current 7-day averages compared to two weeks ago:

New cases: Up 73%
Hospitalizations: Up 50%
Deaths: Up 63%

And the continued increase in new cases means that hospitalizations and deaths will continue to climb at least well into December, and likely longer.

I fear by mid-January we could be seeing 4,000 deaths a day.

[GooooMarquette]

I fear by mid-January we could be seeing 4,000 deaths a day.

Regrettably, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.

[rocky_warrior]

I fear by mid-January we could be seeing 4,000 deaths a day.

Sadly, I don't think it's going to take that long.  3 weeks ago we just broke the 100k cases/day threshold and we're up to around 2k deaths per day.  We're just breaking 200k cases/day now.  Math...

[shoothoops]

San Francisco and South Dakota have similar populations. 14k cases San Francisco, 60k cases South Dakota.

Masks.

As of today, 1 in every 1200 residents of South Dakota are now...dead.

(Worldometers data)

[Skatastrophy]

1 in 5 US hospitals expecting to face a critical staffing shortage in the next 7 days. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/one-in-5-u-s-hospitals-face-staffing-crises-within-a-week?srnd=premium

[forgetful]

I fear by mid-January we could be seeing 4,000 deaths a day.

Although I fear this also, I'm hopeful this will not be the case.

Not because I expect anyone to magically change their view on things, or change their behavior, but simply a probability based analysis. Eventually we maximize the number of contacts each infected individual can spread to based on current behavior. I actually think that plateau of maximized spread under current scenarios is not that far off.

I think we plateau around 200k-250k diagnosed cases daily, which I estimate will correlate with deaths at a maximum of 3k per day. We will likely then taper back down after the holidays as people start to have fewer contacts again.

Right now, a good part of the spike might be attributable to Halloween, that will get worse with Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years, but still think it plateaus around the above range.

Still horrendous and something that was entirely preventable.

[jesmu84]

DJT Jr. positive.

[MU82]

DJT Jr. positive.

Andrew Giuliani, too.

Can't make this shyte up!!!

Someday, somebody is gonna do a hell of a movie or Broadway play about 2020 in general and the pandemic in particular.

[GooooMarquette]

If you want to know why South Dakota is one of the hottest of the hotspots right now:

Sanford Health CEO says he had virus, won't wear mask

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/20/sanford-health-ceo-says-he-had-virus-wont-wear-mask

The head of one of the largest regional health systems in the Midwest has told his employees that he has recovered from COVID-19 and is back in the office — without a mask.

Sanford Health's president and chief executive, Kelby Krabbenhoft, said in an email Wednesday that he believes he’s now immune to the disease for “at least seven months and perhaps years to come” and that he isn’t a threat to transmit it to anyone, so wearing a mask would be merely for show.

The email from Krabbenhoft, who is not a physician, comes as hospitals throughout the region, including in his own network, are struggling to keep up with some of the country’s worst surges of coronavirus patients. And it comes at a time when mask wearing remains a politicized issue in many states.

—————

Of course there is no data to back up his claims of immunity and inability to transmit the virus, but then again data doesn’t seem to matter anymore…

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

If you want to know why South Dakota is one of the hottest of the hotspots right now:

Sanford Health CEO says he had virus, won't wear mask

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/20/sanford-health-ceo-says-he-had-virus-wont-wear-mask

The head of one of the largest regional health systems in the Midwest has told his employees that he has recovered from COVID-19 and is back in the office — without a mask.

Sanford Health's president and chief executive, Kelby Krabbenhoft, said in an email Wednesday that he believes he’s now immune to the disease for “at least seven months and perhaps years to come” and that he isn’t a threat to transmit it to anyone, so wearing a mask would be merely for show.

The email from Krabbenhoft, who is not a physician, comes as hospitals throughout the region, including in his own network, are struggling to keep up with some of the country’s worst surges of coronavirus patients. And it comes at a time when mask wearing remains a politicized issue in many states.

—————

Of course there is no data to back up his claims of immunity and inability to transmit the virus, but then again data doesn’t seem to matter anymore…

That's the father of the former Badger player, and current assistant coach.

[injuryBug]

Andrew Giuliani, too.

Can't make this shyte up!!!

Someday, somebody is gonna do a hell of a movie or Broadway play about 2020 in general and the pandemic in particular.

And those that did not live through it will think it is all fiction

[MU82]

And those that did not live through it will think it is all fiction

Yep, they’ll be watching and saying, “NOBODY can be that stupid. And there’s no way the president of the United States was that inept, cruel and self-centered.”

[GooooMarquette]

Do COVID restrictions make a difference in rural states? Let's look at some numbers:

Two rural states with GOP governors and very different COVID-19 results

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/20/npr-two-rural-states-with-gop-governors-and-very-different-covid-19-results

One of America's governors most skeptical about COVID-19 has been South Dakota's Kristi Noem. She's loudly refused to impose any shutdowns or a statewide mask mandate.

Noem's devotion to keeping her state open has made her a celebrity in the Republican Party. She campaigned for President Donald Trump in 17 states, and touted her own record along the way. "What I did in South Dakota is what we say Republicans always believe," Noem says. "We just did it. We just did it, and look at what is happening in our state." One of the things happening in South Dakota is an infection rate that's among the worst in the nation, at about 8,000 cases per 100,000 people.

In Vermont, another small, rural state with a Republican governor, Gov. Phil Scott has embraced safety measures, and the differences are pretty stark.

Like South Dakota, Vermont has fewer than 1 million residents, most of whom don't live in cities. It has about 500 cases per 100,000 people. That's the lowest rate in the nation. Scott has embraced statewide shutdowns and mandated masks. When he reopened the state's economy, he did it slowly.

[shoothoops]

Amber Elliot, Director of St. Francois County, MO Health Department, steps down due to threats to her family and ongoing abuse. These were in response to her COVID-19 recommendations. She is the 12th MO Health Official to step down. In her own words:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/18/health-care-worker-threats-coronavirus/?arc404=true

[Jockey]

Amber Elliot, Director of St. Francois County, MO Health Department, steps down due to threats to her family and ongoing abuse. These were in response to her COVID-19 recommendations. She is the 12th MO Health Official to step down. In her own words:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/18/health-care-worker-threats-coronavirus/?arc404=true

All of these things can be traced back to one mad king.

[Jockey]

Although I fear this also, I'm hopeful this will not be the case.

Not because I expect anyone to magically change their view on things, or change their behavior, but simply a probability based analysis. Eventually we maximize the number of contacts each infected individual can spread to based on current behavior. I actually think that plateau of maximized spread under current scenarios is not that far off.

I think we plateau around 200k-250k diagnosed cases daily, which I estimate will correlate with deaths at a maximum of 3k per day. We will likely then taper back down after the holidays as people start to have fewer contacts again.

Right now, a good part of the spike might be attributable to Halloween, that will get worse with Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years, but still think it plateaus around the above range.

Still horrendous and something that was entirely preventable.

I've thought about this as well. I just think it might be a little farther down the line yet.