COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[skianth16]

Also a country where TP has been done away with. Bless you Japanese toilets!!! Why aren't they the standard? TP is so freaking 1900's.

I got a retail data report this week saying TP stock ups was a big thing in Japan lately.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/29/national/toilet-paper-tissue-coronavirus/#.XnQuH8jYqlc

[skianth16]

I do see something each of them has in common. 

Seriously, though, I expect to see a few Dems on the list pretty soon. They've got a few lowlifes as well.

At least make an effort like the rest of us to keep the snarky politics out of it.

[Hards Alumni]

I would believe that it can double every six days with no prevention and up to a point. The tracking you showed above isn't supportive of a continuous doubling every 6 days if we start with the Feb 12 cases. There are plateaus involved in there in certain places.

The hard part of all this is just how trustworthy the data is. We know the numbers are under-reported due to limited testing. In the above list, I think we would all agree that there were far, far more than just 100 cases globally on Jan 19 even if that was the reported number. Even if that is close to right, I still question whether the notion of a doubling every 6 days is really to be expected once we get to higher and higher numbers. Won't the growth plateau at a certain point? Won't the weakest immune systems get hit hard early, causing growth to slow when it hits the stronger immune systems?

And then you have to throw in mitigation measures. We are actively taking steps to slow this thing down. Shouldn't that factor into California's numbers? The growth they referenced in the statement seems like it's based on higher than observed growth rates, but California is taking some of the strongest containment measures. Either they have no faith in the strict actions they're enacting, or they're BS-ing their numbers. Either way, it shows a lack of transparency that I think is unacceptable right now.

The virus has likely been spreading around at least two weeks prior to first death.  Which was Feb 29th.  Two weeks earlier was Feb 15th.  So now for almost a month this bug has been flying around infecting people all over the place.  And if those first people were in airports ( you know they were) then this bug was all over the US much faster than we thought.  It ran unchecked for 3 weeks before we even talked about social distancing.  Thats 3 weeks of people touching stuff, coughing, handshakes, hugs, and normal human to human contact.  If the original US carrier was a super carrier then its even further.

You need to stop trying to think about confirmed cases as total cases.  Confirmed cases are what we know with extremely limited testing.  I dont know how else to lut this without sounding like a jerk.

[injuryBug]

I apologize if this has already been posted, but didn’t have time to read through all posts today.  And I am not advocating, just posting something shared with me from an ER doc who also said he wishes the centuries old pandemic would return to his hospital:  drunks doing stupid sheet.

Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus


https://www.dailywire.com/news/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-overreacting-to-coronavirus

Interesting.  if we trusted the numbers in china from the start i wonder if this would be playing out differently

[skianth16]

The virus has likely been spreading around at least two weeks prior to first death.  Which was Feb 29th.  Two weeks earlier was Feb 15th.  So now for almost a month this bug has been flying around infecting people all over the place.  And if those first people were in airports ( you know they were) then this bug was all over the US much faster than we thought.  It ran unchecked for 3 weeks before we even talked about social distancing.  Thats 3 weeks of people touching stuff, coughing, handshakes, hugs, and normal human to human contact.  If the original US carrier was a super carrier then its even further.

You need to stop trying to think about confirmed cases as total cases.  Confirmed cases are what we know with extremely limited testing.  I dont know how else to lut this without sounding like a jerk.

I know confirmed cases isn't accurate for total cases. Maybe it's just that I can't wrap my head around a number like 25 million people infected in just one state. Maybe it's just me.

But when  the governor of California comes out and makes a statement saying he expects more than half his state's population to be infected when we haven't seen any scenarios anywhere close to that anywhere in the world, I would expect those numbers to be pretty solid. They better be based on real data. And so far, the real data, even extrapolations of the data we have, doesn't seem to confirm the CA 8 week estimate.

Do you think that's a reasonable/likely/supported number?

[Jay Bee]

I know confirmed cases isn't accurate for total cases. Maybe it's just that I can't wrap my head around a number like 25 million people infected in just one state. Maybe it's just me.

But when  the governor of California comes out and makes a statement saying he expects more than half his state's population to be infected when we haven't seen any scenarios anywhere close to that anywhere in the world, I would expect those numbers to be pretty solid. They better be based on real data. And so far, the real data, even extrapolations of the data we have, doesn't seem to confirm the CA 8 week estimate.

Do you think that's a reasonable/likely/supported number?

It’s within a reasonable range of possibilities. I have a confirmed case at my effin address.

[Chili]

New York Times

Looking at 2.25MM jobless claims next week. 10x increase.

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1240841141739827201

[skianth16]

It’s within a reasonable range of possibilities. I have a confirmed case at my effin address.

Using the doubling every 6 days math, CA is assuming they have 50,000 actual cases today, compared to the roughly 1,000 confirmed cases. Is 50x a possible multiplier to calculate actual cases? Maybe. But then it also must also assume no mitigation impact. I have a harder time buying into that piece.

Newsom doesn't even say "up to" 25 million "could" become infected. No qualifiers or caveats. This is presented as the actual projection.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.18.20-Letter-USNS-Mercy-Hospital-Ship.pdf

[Jay Bee]

Using the doubling every 6 days math, CA is assuming they have 50,000 actual cases today, compared to the roughly 1,000 confirmed cases. Is 50x a possible multiplier to calculate actual cases? Maybe. But then it also must also assume no mitigation impact. I have a harder time buying into that piece.

Newsom doesn't even say "up to" 25 million "could" become infected. No qualifiers or caveats. This is presented as the actual projection.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.18.20-Letter-USNS-Mercy-Hospital-Ship.pdf

Hey, a lot of people are pooh poohing this so you’re not alone. But I think you’re not being wise. It’s going to get so much worse.

I couldn’t care less about the reported numbers now because my belief is that many, MANY more are infected.

[skianth16]

Hey, a lot of people are pooh poohing this so you’re not alone. But I think you’re not being wise. It’s going to get so much worse.

I couldn’t care less about the reported numbers now because my belief is that many, MANY more are infected.

I'm still following all the suggested guidelines. I'm not taking any chances for myself, and I definitely don't want to be part of making it worse for anyone else. I just question some of the numbers being shared given the implications they have in all of our lives now and the effects they could have for months/years to come.

[Jay Bee]

I'm still following all the suggested guidelines. I'm not taking any chances for myself, and I definitely don't want to be part of making it worse for anyone else. I just question some of the numbers being shared given the implications they have in all of our lives now and the effects they could have for months/years to come.

Understood. I think if people were being honest... the answer wouldn't be a great one for people to hear... but... the real answer I think is, "I have no effin idea, but believe it could be staggering as f***."

I feel a big % of scoopers will have it.

[GB Warrior]

Hey, a lot of people are pooh poohing this so you’re not alone. But I think you’re not being wise. It’s going to get so much worse.

I couldn’t care less about the reported numbers now because my belief is that many, MANY more are infected.

Yep. Look no further than WI statistics. 2 cases in Brown County today. First ones. Both community spread. That means the real number is MUCH, much higher.

[Hards Alumni]

I know confirmed cases isn't accurate for total cases. Maybe it's just that I can't wrap my head around a number like 25 million people infected in just one state. Maybe it's just me.

But when  the governor of California comes out and makes a statement saying he expects more than half his state's population to be infected when we haven't seen any scenarios anywhere close to that anywhere in the world, I would expect those numbers to be pretty solid. They better be based on real data. And so far, the real data, even extrapolations of the data we have, doesn't seem to confirm the CA 8 week estimate.

Do you think that's a reasonable/likely/supported number?

Ah, I see, maybe you're setting your timeline too short.

[DomJamesToTheBasket]

Understood. I think if people were being honest... the answer wouldn't be a great one for people to hear... but... the real answer I think is, "I have no effin idea, but believe it could be staggering as f***."

I feel a big % of scoopers will have it.

Ohio Director of Health said they believed 1% of their population was currently infected when they has a mere FIVE confirmed cases several days ago

Indiana Director of Health said they believed 0.9% of their population was currently infected when they had a similar number confirmed cases a few days ago

President of the region of Madrid stated she believed 80% will be infected a day ago

Governor of California stated he believed 56% of California will be infected a day ago

Anecdotally, family friend that lives in Bergamo Italy believes around 80% are currently infected there.  They have been on lockdown for some time.  She, her husband and 2 kids are sick with mild symptoms.  They believe they are infected, however, they have no access to testing.

This virus is all over the damn place

[injuryBug]

Yep. Look no further than WI statistics. 2 cases in Brown County today. First ones. Both community spread. That means the real number is MUCH, much higher.

and if infected cases include those with no symptoms then i think the projected numbers are a good estimate.  I think so many see the huge numbers and think those are all the people that will need hospital attention and right away say no way those numbers cannot be true.
Then you look at the numbers in china.  not a chance a country of that size did not break 100k yet.  On the bright side you have South Korea who has seemed to keep this under control

[mu03eng]

The thing to remember is because testing is only for those who are critical, we are only really seeing those that are experiencing the worst outcome. That means it is much widely spread, people already have it but are asymptomatic or experiencing mild symptoms. My wife's hospital added 6 ICU/Covid patients over the last 3 days but all of them have significant comorbides (including the 23 year old).

The one thing I do wonder about is if this is going to be like 9/11 where the first responders and the ones who worked ground zero will be disproportionately impacted by overly negative results.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Isn't the truth that this will eventually spread to practically everyone hence the need to slow down the spread so the medical community can handle this better?

I'm under the assumption that eventually we all will likely be exposed.

[Hards Alumni]

Isn't the truth that this will eventually spread to practically everyone hence the need to slow down the spread so the medical community can handle this better?

I'm under the assumption that eventually we all will likely be exposed.

That's correct.  The reason that people say 80% will get it is because at a certain point, the virus runs out of hosts to carry it, and it will naturally slow down.  If you remove 80% of the carriers, then the numbers have to come down.

This is why we slow it.  If we can get the 80% infected over a year to eighteen months, we can keep our healthcare workers safe, and our supplies for them available.

[GooooMarquette]

Interesting article about test development. Shows how some countries (notably SK, Singapore and Australia) handled the test development quickly and decisively, while others (notably Italy and the US) were slowed by denial and political infighting.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/world/europe/coronavirus-testing-per-country.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

[DomJamesToTheBasket]

Isn't the truth that this will eventually spread to practically everyone hence the need to slow down the spread so the medical community can handle this better?

I'm under the assumption that eventually we all will likely be exposed.

At this point it appears unstoppable, as far as I'm concerned.  It will be interesting to see how China, Japan, and South Korea reluctantly re-introduce it into their countries......assuming they stop it before realizing the rest of the world can't.  China essentially has already stopped it.  Life is slowly returning to a new normal here in Shenzhen.  More and more businesses opening back up each day.  More and more people getting back into their normal routines, but I suspect mask enforcement will not be going away anytime soon, as well as the temperature checks everywhere.

[forgetful]

Ohio Director of Health said they believed 1% of their population was currently infected when they has a mere FIVE confirmed cases several days ago

Indiana Director of Health said they believed 0.9% of their population was currently infected when they had a similar number confirmed cases a few days ago

President of the region of Madrid stated she believed 80% will be infected a day ago

Governor of California stated he believed 56% of California will be infected a day ago

Anecdotally, family friend that lives in Bergamo Italy believes around 80% are currently infected there.  They have been on lockdown for some time.  She, her husband and 2 kids are sick with mild symptoms.  They believe they are infected, however, they have no access to testing.

This virus is all over the damn place

I don't believe Ohio's or Indiana's estimates. But based on the deaths/deathrate Italy likely has a crapton of undiagnosed cases They likely have 200-400k cases right now.

[JWags85]

State of New York shut down.  Business impacts are gonna be significant.  We'll see

[shoothoops]

2 months ago today, first COVID-19 case reported in U.S.

Similar questions remain...where are the:

Military
Tests
Masks
Ventilators

So much ignored and downplayed.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I had a call from my company's aluminum supplier yesterday. 
He heard through the grapevine that the current aluminum flat wire manufacturer for the nose fit wire on the N95 mask was at capacity and was unable to increase production further.  He expected my company to be contacted about supplementing wire production. 
 

[Pakuni]

2 months ago today, first COVID-19 case reported in U.S.

Similar questions remain...where are the:

Military
Tests
Masks
Ventilators

So much ignored and downplayed.

Military?
What's the army's role here?