Oso planning to go pro
Interesting article from an infectious disease epidemiologist from the University of Hong Kong, with a statistical/epidemiological explanation of how to decide when to reopen society, and how to determine whether and when to reimpose restrictions:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/opinion/coronavirus-end-social-distancing.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=HomepageWithout getting into the stats, he is essentially saying that places may have to reopen then impose restrictions repeatedly until we have a vaccine and/or a sufficient number of recovered cases to develop herd immunity.Everyone wants to sprint, but we are in a marathon....
I put the chances of any sort of NBA or NHL playoffs at less than 10%. Having the NBA playoffs at one site where everyone is quarantined, etc. is just not going to be feasible. Unless they push it all the way to September, but by then, what is the point?Baseball could start late, but even a 100 game season might be too much. And it will start without fans.Peter King's scenario is what I think the NFL might look like. Though it might start without fans. I think you will see something similar for college football. Only conference games.
I believe that is the same type of scenario recommended by the Imperial College study that everyone is using. Which makes todays stock market news kind of weird. They are acting like this is over.
Boris Johnson moved to ICU. Trending in the wrong direction for him.
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updatessome good news buried there.
Jesus, that was fast. Real chance he doesn't make it.
Was just stunned watching clip from yesterday’s dog and pony show where Trump refused to let Fauci speak about his snake oil solution. Peter Navarro said he trusts Trump’s intuition over science. Really. Those are the people in charge.
I think the mods have made it pretty clear that they want to move on from the political comments.
So the market isn't allowed to be green until the virus is completely eradicated? People continue freaking out every time the market bounces like that means the market says its all over. Its barely back to the highs of last week, just retraced the bloody end of the week. Still almost 10% off the high of the last 30 days from early March, and 23% from the top. It gained some footing based on progress. Lots of bad news and decreased economic activity is priced in already. We are just waffling in a range, albeit a huge and volatile one.Unless we have some sort of catastrophic step back in China or the US or a major European country, this market isn't going to plunge to lows on COVID news alone. There absolutely will be more downside, but its going to come after the market releases some steam higher and then hard numbers from companies come out in the form of earnings and guidance reports and adjustments. The market is a discounting and forecasting mechanism as a whole. Its forward looking.
I didn't say the market can't respond positively. But there has been a large bounce on little to no positive data. There is no reason to believe that the economy will have a chance to return to normal within the next 6 months. And that new normal will be at a significantly declined reference point. Before there was any COVID, many were saying the market was overpriced and needed a 10-15% correction. To me, it shows that the stock market is no longer rational. I honestly don't think it has been for awhile.
So you're saying the market needed a 10-15% haircut, PLUS whatever impact COVID has on top of that? Markets often don't cool off and backfill the overpriced air pocket they were rising on until there is a reason or a black swan.Also, from top to bottom, the market (SPY/SPY) dropped 35%. 50% retracements of moves are exceedingly common on both daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. A 50% retracement of the move would be 2800 on the SPX. Working up to that level and then making new lows beyond the low of 2200 is very likely and fundamentally matches market behavior over decades. The market was irrational at its peaks, I don't think what we've seen is anything particularly so. Clearly you had no issue when the market would puke daily on Cuomo sharing information that wasn't new, shocking, or at all divergent from models or projections. Yet when the market bounces after an 8% weekly decline on news that NYC cases have flattened for multiple days, beyond simply a bounce after tons of red, then its "irrational", got it.Not for nothing, you've been one of the more bearish and grim voices on COVID here, which is fine and I'm not begrudging your opinion and analysis. But calling out market perception and opinions of the situation, with a daily market view, irrational cause they don't match your own and have any positivity in them is pretty self involved.The Fed also is backstopping the market with significant capital which gives it some stabilizing strength, that's just fact, that's not irrational.
WagsMarkets that move faster, slower, or in a direction people disagree with are referred to as irrational. Easier than saying “I was wrong (irrational?) on the market”.
The Fed also is backstopping the market with significant capital which gives it some stabilizing strength, that's just fact, that's not irrational.
I think you're getting overly bullish on this. Today in NYC 13 flights took off the area airports. Right now, the national restaurant association is thinking 13% of the countries nations will never reopen - and that's if things don't get worse. Going into March the only sector of the economy that was doing well was the service sector. Everything else was down. Now, the service industry just get both legs chopped off at the femur and people expect it to start running again come May / June. I am still targeting 2200. Thankfully I exited equities at 3250. No need to rush to catch the falling knife.
While you are busy bashing away...you better read this...you'll dismiss it, I know, but notice this Rep is a Democrat...https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2020/04/06/democrat-karen-whitsett-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-trump/2955430001/