Kolek planning to go pro
But it isn't. They took precautions and isolated people. We have done so little, and have a significantly larger amount of community spread than they have ever have.
I get what you're saying. Since the US has been decidedly less proactive, you think it's fair to assume that our positive test rate should be much higher than Korea's. I don't disagree with that. But I do still think our current positive test rate is artificially high. And probably by a lot.I would also point out that Korea testing is still pretty targeted, since a lot of their testing has been focused on those with known exposure to positive cases. So while their rate is fairly assumed to be lower than ours given their preventative measures, I would still lean toward the standard positive test rate being closer to theirs than ours. Further, I haven't seen much noting isolation as a key measure in Korea outside of just those who have tested positive and their close connections. And the US has certainly been pushing that idea as well. The article below notes that Korea has had a very different approach from China and Italy, which seems to be very effective. The question is whether their model is even possible without the testing capacity they have. I assume no, but to me, this offers a lot more hope than what I've heard from the US experts. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and
Right now there is very little evidence to support this being true. Is it possible, yes, is it likely no. I guess it partly depends on what you mean by "lots". If you mean another 3-5k people nationwide. Probably true. If you mean 100's of thousands, almost assuredly false.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny. Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.
Down 1 w 5 seconds left. Doable.
I definitely mean (evenyually) 100,000s nationwide.Here's my amateur epidemiological reasoning using Boston alone.Many people at the Biogen conference have tested positive. This conference happened on Feb 26-27, middle of the week.Then, some of those same people went to a different conference in Boston, hosted by Cowen investment bank on that same weekend. This conference was held in the Prudential center, where there's a mall, an observation deck for tourists to see the Boston skyline, etc.That's a lot of time for infected people to be roaming around the city.Making matters worse, the Eastern Economic Association held a conference the same weekend at the same location (Prudential Center, Sheraton). Prediction: the Boston metro area becomes THE next epicenter of the virus. Those Biogen people have led to infections in many others who did not attend the initial conference. The people in this "second concentric circle" would have been feeling the symptoms around March 4-6. These people were going about their day, running errands, etc, up until only a few days ago.I fear that Boston will become so bad that Logan gets shutdown.Obviously I sincerely hope that I'm wrong.
Went to the store today, and...It was largely fine. We went early but the crowds were picking up. Plenty of fresh foods available. Shortages on some of the frozen and dry goods. No toilet paper. Very few cleaning supplies...which is a good thing. My wife tends to be an over-buyer anyway so we are usually well stocked.Also the liquor section had no lines or anything!
I fear that Boston will become so bad that Logan gets shutdown.Obviously I sincerely hope that I'm wrong.
There was no chicken in my supermarket this morning and I heard it was the same elsewhere. Is there a run on chicken with the toilet paper and Purell or is there some other reason?
Just a stocking up mentality at play. Was at a grocery store in NYC yesterday and the most random things were out of stock while plenty more were in ample supply. Chicken doesn’t stand out as particularly specific idea to include in a worst case scenario list
The eventual 100'000s I agree with. Much for the reasons you say. As I noted above, my disagreement would be on 100,000's right now. I estimate around 5k cases right now. But as you note those are spread across the nation, which allows each "concentric circle" to grow independently. Boston is going to get bad fast. How well people are able to distance themselves will determine how much these other "concentric circles" grow, and then ultimately how bad things get.
It's hard for me to believe about 5,000 cases right now. That's such a miniscule percent, and look at all the celebrities (many celebs have not even been tested) who have it. For sure Tom Cruise and a couple NBA players. I'm thinking more NBA players have it than we know right now. 5,000 cases would mean about 1/50000 Americans. Way too low.
Those are cases of people who travel by air often, and are then moving through airports with infected people often, and are interacting with people more often than a normal person (hand shakes, selfies, etc.). That's why you are seeing some politicians infected.
It's a good point, but not sure if people realize just how minute 1/50000 of the population is to think that's all who currently have the virus. I have serious doubts.
What examples from other countries would make you think the number/percentage should be higher? Aren't all the percentages extremely low?
Not 1/50,000 low in the highest affected countries, and I think we're on our way to being one of those highest affected. Symptoms apparently often don't present for 7-14 days after being infected.
NC governor just issued executive order closing schools for 2 weeks, effective immediately, and banning gatherings of 100+ people.The order doesn't include restaurants, shopping malls or retail establishments. So I guess it's a lot more healthy for the public to have 100 people at a restaurant than at, say, a comedy club?