Oso planning to go pro
I think a take-away from the last 2 years is that the USA should focus on making stuff for ourselves.Hopefully we can reverse the trend of sending so much overseas in the last 40 years.
It was pushed there because of lower labor costs and fewer environmental restrictions. I am not sure the pendulum has swung so much that it would be easier to manufacture in the USA, particularly with the existing labor shortages. However, if it was my company, I would be exploring South and Central America.
skatastrophyI agree 100%. The lockdown in China is hampering the ability to manufacture all across China, not just in the lockdown cities. We have been able to help our clients navigate some of these issues, but it literally is a daily struggle. Last night we moved a handful of our staff to covid free city to allow them to begin working again. I believe that things might get very, very ugly on the supply chain side of things in the upcoming weeks.
towerI was just in NYC/CT the past two days working with a client, very famous US Brand, and the topic of Central and South America was discussed at length. Our main contact, VP of supply chain mgt, spent a couple of years trying to develop Latin America has a backup plan to China and he stated he does not believe Latin America is capable of being anything more than a third tier supplier to the USA market. He is one of the smart guys we deal with and has a long track record of developing supply chains in low cost countries and I trust him a great deal.Sad, but true, China remains options 1, 2 and 3 for far too much of our needs. We field calls daily with companies wanting to move some production out of China and very few people are willing to put the time and money into developing new markets. I believe we are going to face a very turbulent time in the global economy and it has me concerned.
Yeah, one of my good friends is a consultant who has been neck deep in a company that shifted a lot of its production to Mexico, instead of China. He said the costs ended up being only a 15-20% discount from domestic production and the corruption is awful and rampant. The infrastructure is just not there, and the corruption isn't greasing a few palms, its beyond prohibitive at times. They considered a few other Central American locations and Mexico is what had won out. Despite the cost, they are already looking at moving production back to SE Asia.
Monterrey?
No, though it was considered. In between Ciudad Juarez and Chihuahua
heh, I'd say everything within a hundred miles of the border is going to be corrupt.
???There's not much of Mexico that isn't corrupt.
I doubt a short term supply chain disruption is going to change forty years of economic forces pushing manufacturing to China.
skatastrophyWe have clients dipping their toe in Africa and that was on my schedule in 2020, pre pandemic. I think Africa is a long way from being a true supplier of goods and the usual products will be the first shipped in volume out of Africa. I believe clothing and shoes will lead the way and it still is going take time for these products to be made in volume needed for the USA.
Whole lotta America First in this thread
You can really tell the people involved in international commerce and those not in this thread.
Have people not watched Narcos:Mexico?
I didn't. I stopped after Pablo died. Felt like a good place to stop. Is it worth continuing?
For you Chinese experts, thoughts on Xi getting reupped? What was a sure thing a few months ago, seems to be at least in question now.https://www.yahoo.com/news/troubles-mount-china-ahead-xis-100011438.htmlI was having dinner with my good Chinese friend last week and he indicated that all is not rosey with Xi over the brutality of the lockdowns and resistance, the economy--especially the alienation with the West, and criticism for his support of Putin. He suggested Xi and Li Keqiang are at odds, and a face saving "health" exit may be in store (with some unfounded rumors swirling).
Seems mostly speculative and not likely.
As with anything with China, one is left to speculation. What's different to me is there is more internal smoke on this one.https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/chinese-social-media-abuzz-with-rumours-of-xi-jinping-stepping-down-for-covid-19-mismanagement/amp_articleshow/91560750.cms
Can you say that? Isn’t that like saying “my good PR friend”?
Dr. BIf Xi stepped down that would be an amazing turn of events. He will not go down quietly, IMO.
The only way I see Xi ever "stepping down" would be some VERY severe health condition...which would be tied to him handpicking and shaping the successor to be his mirror. He's there for the distance.
Maybe China should have kept their COVID restrictions in place.
Supply chain is going to get royally fouled up again.
A lot of companies have spent the last year trying to onshore (at least a portion) to prevent a repeat of 2020. (I've quoted several.) The latest China events will only hammer home and speed up the process.
The blueprint that society decided works was out there. China had every opportunity to vaccinate their population in the last almost three years.They're skipping a very important step.
Vietnam,India and Eastern Europe are considered onshore? Seems like many businesses are just moving their sources to other countries.
Some are trying to diversify their supply chains that way, some are also moving portions back onshore.