The Lens

How much do think people that own homes and have 401k's feel differently about the economy vs people that do not? I have been saying for the past couple of years that a lot of average people think they are smarter and wealthier than they really are based off of home appreciation and increase in 401k. The rapid rise in home prices and stock market has created a false sense of security to some people, imo.

Goose:

Of course Trump can't fix it. He helped break it during his first term.

Presidents have a very marginal role in the health of the overall economy. Had any of 17 GOP candidates won the nomination in 2016  and then beat Clinton, that president would have signed the tax cuts into legislation. That was classic conservative policy, the kind the GOP used to be about.

And after Covid struck, any GOP president (and any Dem president) also would have signed the bipartisan stimulus package, which also turned out to have stimulated inflation.

Biden and the Dems then enacted even more stimulus. Combined with the strong recoveries for hundreds and hundreds of corporations, and the relatively low work-force participation that led to wage increases, that goosed inflation.

Inflation still exists. It's now growing at roughly the same annual pace as it did from 1960-2022 (3.5% to 3.8%, depending on which numbers one looks at). Firing Powell won't change that.

Although most GDP, employment, corporate earnings and related statistics suggest the economy is quite strong - and although we all know that Trump and his acolytes would be calling this exact economy The Strongest Economy In The History Of Economies! if he were presiding over it - I do agree with you, Lenny, Sultan and others that the data will not matter if enough Americans lack confidence about their own economic situations. And yes, it could be one of the things - maybe even the main thing - that costs Biden his job.