COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[MarquetteDano]

I don't get that. The increased unemployment is for a limited time only.

Still should be indexed by area. New York City versus rural Montana should prob not be getting the same set amount per week. Makes no sense. People near minimum wage in NYC have trouble paying rent whilst that set amount for Montana is too much for their expenses.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This is amazing and frightening all at the same time. 

https://onezero.medium.com/what-miniature-lab-grown-brains-reveal-about-the-effects-of-covid-19-e73b7c1b84e9

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Still should be indexed by area. New York City versus rural Montana should prob not be getting the same set amount per week. Makes no sense. People near minimum wage in NYC have trouble paying rent whilst that set amount for Montana is too much for their expenses.

It was just a short term thing. No biggie really.

[MarquetteDano]

It was just a short term thing. No biggie really.

Agreed.  Though if another round of unemployment additional benefits is passed I do believe indexing is the way to go.

[Jockey]

This is amazing and frightening all at the same time. 

https://onezero.medium.com/what-miniature-lab-grown-brains-reveal-about-the-effects-of-covid-19-e73b7c1b84e9

The horror show gets worse almost daily.

[forgetful]

This is amazing and frightening all at the same time. 

https://onezero.medium.com/what-miniature-lab-grown-brains-reveal-about-the-effects-of-covid-19-e73b7c1b84e9

A lot of this is somewhat expected. The ACE2 receptor is quite seriously implicated in almost every serious disease manifestation, heart disease, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, neurological issues (Alzheimers), clotting disorders, inflammation, and many others. In all cases it is beneficial to avoid or remediate these issues.

When SARS-CoV2 infects these cells it induces shedding of the ACE2 receptor and modifies the ACE/ACE2 ratio leading to a loss of protection by ACE2 (ACE is pro-inflammatory; ACE2 counteracts it). So all major organs go into a  significant pro-stress, pro-inflammatory state, heightened clotting, inflammation of the heart, lungs, brain, and kidneys. Basically, everything goes down the tubes.

Just a nasty disease. And it doesn't help that we do not really know much about how ACE2 works, we just know all the things it protects against and how not having a good ACE2/ACE ratio can lead to poor outcomes.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

A lot of this is somewhat expected. The ACE2 receptor is quite seriously implicated in almost every serious disease manifestation, heart disease, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, neurological issues (Alzheimers), clotting disorders, inflammation, and many others. In all cases it is beneficial to avoid or remediate these issues.

When SARS-CoV2 infects these cells it induces shedding of the ACE2 receptor and modifies the ACE/ACE2 ratio leading to a loss of protection by ACE2 (ACE is pro-inflammatory; ACE2 counteracts it). So all major organs go into a  significant pro-stress, pro-inflammatory state, heightened clotting, inflammation of the heart, lungs, brain, and kidneys. Basically, everything goes down the tubes.

Just a nasty disease. And it doesn't help that we do not really know much about how ACE2 works, we just know all the things it protects against and how not having a good ACE2/ACE ratio can lead to poor outcomes.

Very informative forgetful.

Personally the growing and infecting tiny brains part of the article was the crazy part for me.  But the part you key in on is certainly more important.

[Pakuni]

Mississippi hasn't exactly been one of the smarter states so far, but credit to the governor for this Twitter thread last night shooting down the idea that we can solve this through herd immunity.

Tate Reeves
@tatereeves
Let’s talk about herd immunity. I’ve listened to some people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to reach herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I’m not a health care expert by any means, but I am a math guy. And I have thoughts:

The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let’s assume they’re wrong (it’s certainly possible, they have been before.) Let’s assume they’re being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity.

In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We’ve had 36,680 cases so far.

We’d need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it’s double that.)

On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time.
To get to 40% infections, we’d need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today.
We would need to TRIPLE our worst day—every day—for a year.

I’m not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the expert status quo talking points. I’m pretty skeptical by nature. That’s healthy. But herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I wish it was.

Unless you’re willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They’re a hell of a lot better than widespread shut downs. Please wear one!

[GooooMarquette]

Agreed - credit to the MS governor for acknowledging the math (and implicitly the science), and clearly urging use of masks. Hopefully he follows this up by consistently wearing one in his public appearances and staying with the message.

And while I don’t harbor unrealistic hopes that Mississippi will suddenly become a leader in rollbacks or other aggressive measures, hopefully this means they will be in early follower of other states.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Not a fan of Paul Krugman, but he nails it here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/opinion/coronavirus-schools-bars.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

And I don't think people realize that this could get worse.  Much worse.  We are pinning our hopes on a vaccine by January, but that is by far not a guaranty.

[forgetful]

I think most states need a full 4-week shutdown. And I mean full, grocery stores being an exception.

After that reopen, but this time no bars, or inside seating at restaurants. Most other things can safely reopen with social distancing and masks.

If we do that now, we may be able to save some concept of school this fall.

What we can't afford is to go into fall/winter at all time high trending of cases.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I think most states need a full 4-week shutdown. And I mean full, grocery stores being an exception.

After that reopen, but this time no bars, or inside seating at restaurants. Most other things can safely reopen with social distancing and masks.

If we do that now, we may be able to save some concept of school this fall.

What we can't afford is to go into fall/winter at all time high trending of cases.

And frankly this experiment has cost us a not insignificant amount of PPE, antiviral drugs, testing kits/supplies and delayed healthcare.  We need to be stockpiling at a time when we are depleting.

The fall is the real test.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This by the way is why I was sympathetic toward Abbott.  Even now he is getting pushback. 

https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities/507209-republican-committees-censure-texas-governor-over?fbclid=IwAR2ZLUxMdk5R-ynGn0uZQfGF0M5eBR2O0Gt-SUlrjW4ydANH22AlXcUQ9zk

[Jockey]

Not a fan of Paul Krugman, but he nails it here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/opinion/coronavirus-schools-bars.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

And I don't think people realize that this could get worse.  Much worse.  We are pinning our hopes on a vaccine by January, but that is by far not a guaranty.

One line says it all. “None of this had to happen”.

[Jockey]

What we can't afford is to go into fall/winter at all time high trending of cases.

My biggest fear. Combining a bad flu season with runaway Covid due to school re-opening

[cheebs09]

This by the way is why I was sympathetic toward Abbott.  Even now he is getting pushback. 

https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities/507209-republican-committees-censure-texas-governor-over?fbclid=IwAR2ZLUxMdk5R-ynGn0uZQfGF0M5eBR2O0Gt-SUlrjW4ydANH22AlXcUQ9zk

Don’t get me wrong, the federal response has been bad. I do wonder what things would have looked like with good leadership. We are so divided, I feel like if this happened 6 years ago, a decent portion would still be so entrenched against the other side, we would still struggle.

Granted, I still think we would be much better than today.

[GooooMarquette]

I think most states need a full 4-week shutdown. And I mean full, grocery stores being an exception.

After that reopen, but this time no bars, or inside seating at restaurants. Most other things can safely reopen with social distancing and masks.

If we do that now, we may be able to save some concept of school this fall.

What we can't afford is to go into fall/winter at all time high trending of cases.

I agree we need a full shutdown, with a more sane definition of essential services.

I would still be surprised if that's enough to get us to in-person school since that's just a few weeks away, but at least we would be trying. And either way, it's the only way to keep this winter from turning into a nightmare nobody wants.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

You guys keep saying 'full' shutdown.  I don't know that is or isn't needed and you have to think about what is achievable. 

I can give you my personal experience.  CT was not a 'full' shutdown - never fully shut parks, beaches, golf courses, homecenters, dry cleaners, pickup restaurants and a host of manufacturing and other items.  We were able to get the epidemic under control and have slowly returned to normal.  There is generally a common spirit here on how to behave - movement of people crashed during the epidemic.  As an example, I can count on one hand how many unmasked people I have encountered since March in the local grocery store.

So I don't know the answer on the best way to reset these areas (or mine eventually i imagine).  We certainly need to cut back on the most risky of behavior and get people to comply willingly.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Don’t get me wrong, the federal response has been bad. I do wonder what things would have looked like with good leadership. We are so divided, I feel like if this happened 6 years ago, a decent portion would still be so entrenched against the other side, we would still struggle.

Granted, I still think we would be much better than today.

It would look like where Connecticut is now. 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

You guys keep saying 'full' shutdown.  I don't know that is or isn't needed and you have to think about what is achievable. 

I can give you my personal experience.  CT was not a 'full' shutdown - never fully shut parks, beaches, golf courses, homecenters, dry cleaners, pickup restaurants and a host of manufacturing and other items.  We were able to get the epidemic under control and have slowly returned to normal.  There is generally a common spirit here on how to behave - movement of people crashed during the epidemic.  As an example, I can count on one hand how many unmasked people I have encountered since March in the local grocery store.

So I don't know the answer on the best way to reset these areas (or mine eventually i imagine).  We certainly need to cut back on the most risky of behavior and get people to comply willingly.

I can tell more people are back to work because after the 4th of July holiday I'm actually seeing traffic back-up again in spots that had not since early March.
Transmission rates are still dropping also and our Governor paused Phase 2 after seeing what is going on elsewhere.

Bars are not opened yet and the owners supported the Governor's pause to Phase 3 (where they would have opened) because the common reply was "I don't want my customers getting sick."

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I can tell more people are back to work because after the 4th of July holiday I'm actually seeing traffic back-up again in spots that had not since early March.
Transmission rates are still dropping also and our Governor paused Phase 2 after seeing what is going on elsewhere.

Bars are not opened yet and the owners supported the Governor's pause to Phase 3 (where they would have opened) because the common reply was "I don't want my customers getting sick."

I agree and the business owners have been super creative on services and putting up protections because they want to make people feel good when in the store.

My fish monger is still doing very low capacity, full plexi and call-ins.  Restaurants still doing pick-up/cocktail service--one local place doing provisions (add on eggs, butter or milk).  Hair salon's pausing their opening a week to make sure they had enough PPE. 

It's inevitable we slip back at some point, but we have done what you said in the face of 1. George Floyd protests, 2. people coming back to work, 3. multiple 3-day weekend/outdoor holidays, 4. Reopening of outdoor and limited indoor dining and 5. tons of testing with <1% positive rate.

That is why all of this is so infuriating.  It's not normal, but its not like its rocket science.   

[Pakuni]

Kinda funny, but also kinda infuriating.

https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1283121838621700097

[Jockey]

You guys keep saying 'full' shutdown.  I don't know that is or isn't needed and you have to think about what is achievable. 

I can give you my personal experience.  CT was not a 'full' shutdown - never fully shut parks, beaches, golf courses, homecenters, dry cleaners, pickup restaurants and a host of manufacturing and other items.  We were able to get the epidemic under control and have slowly returned to normal.  There is generally a common spirit here on how to behave - movement of people crashed during the epidemic.  As an example, I can count on one hand how many unmasked people I have encountered since March in the local grocery store.

So I don't know the answer on the best way to reset these areas (or mine eventually i imagine).  We certainly need to cut back on the most risky of behavior and get people to comply willingly.

I don't know of many here who want a full shutdown. I think most here are in favor of exactly what you are saying and what you have consistently said from the beginning.

We KNOW how to put the brakes on this wildfire spread of the disease. The problem is that our leader is actually promoting the spread. He and some governors are promoting the spread of disease and death.

Some here don't want to hear that, but it is absolutely true. Mandatory masks, partial shutdowns and partial stay-at-home are the only way to get a true handle on this. trump is against all of these - consequently R governors in the south follow his lead and let their citizens die. If we had the leaders of both parties  - instead of just one - fully on board with mandatory masks - even while doing little else, the pandemic in the US would look vastly different.

Sadly, we won't have any national policy on covid until January 20 and by then portions of the country may look like a wasteland.

[GooooMarquette]

You guys keep saying 'full' shutdown.  I don't know that is or isn't needed and you have to think about what is achievable. 

I can give you my personal experience.  CT was not a 'full' shutdown - never fully shut parks, beaches, golf courses, homecenters, dry cleaners, pickup restaurants and a host of manufacturing and other items.  We were able to get the epidemic under control and have slowly returned to normal.  There is generally a common spirit here on how to behave - movement of people crashed during the epidemic.  As an example, I can count on one hand how many unmasked people I have encountered since March in the local grocery store.

So I don't know the answer on the best way to reset these areas (or mine eventually i imagine).  We certainly need to cut back on the most risky of behavior and get people to comply willingly.

Sorry - by 'full shutdown," I mean basically going back to where most states were a couple of months ago...with the only caveats that we would mandate masks when people go out and more carefully limit the list of 'essential activities'...and that we keep it in place until each state really gets the pandemic under control. Consequently, I would still allow public parks, beaches and golf courses, many manufacturing operations, restaurant carryouts and such.

We were basically on the right track back in April, but most states reopened WAY too soon, and are paying the price for that impatience. NY, CT and a few others were more patient and measured, and are seeing the benefits.

[forgetful]

You guys keep saying 'full' shutdown.  I don't know that is or isn't needed and you have to think about what is achievable. 

I can give you my personal experience.  CT was not a 'full' shutdown - never fully shut parks, beaches, golf courses, homecenters, dry cleaners, pickup restaurants and a host of manufacturing and other items.  We were able to get the epidemic under control and have slowly returned to normal.  There is generally a common spirit here on how to behave - movement of people crashed during the epidemic.  As an example, I can count on one hand how many unmasked people I have encountered since March in the local grocery store.

So I don't know the answer on the best way to reset these areas (or mine eventually i imagine).  We certainly need to cut back on the most risky of behavior and get people to comply willingly.

When I say full shutdown, I am largely saying what places like CT did. Other states really never went there. They allowed employers to determine who was "essential". In some of these areas that meant many businesses just deemed most of their staff "essential". And businesses labeled themselves as "essential".

Some of those areas are particularly hard hit right now.