Scholarship table
DIS is overvalued. Motley Fool has been selling its "four secret stocks to buy" report - which includes DIS - for a couple years now. A lot of people buying the dream... but it's no more rational than people who buy lottery tickets to get rich. The problem is, no one can come out and say it because Disney is still a corporate juggernaut and has the revenues to show for it. The real issue is that they have too many eggs in the media/entertainment sector, which is going through a major evolution in consumer demand right now... if the cord-cutting fad becomes fashion, the mouse is in serious trouble.
ESPN is just one (of many) revenue streams for DIS. I don't own any, but would consider opening a position for the right price because Disney has a demonstrated ability to cultivate billion dollar brands and keeps on adding to them (Marvel, Star Wars). If cord cutting is inevitable, ESPN will adapt or die. DIS will reallocate its capital to other more profitable ventures. The mouse is going nowhere long term.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny. Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.
I just looked at my Disney stuff. All time, I'm up 212.67% on what I paid for it. I'm feeling pretty good about it. I have a few stinkers, a few winners.
Even more reason to start selling off. If you are up in Blackjack, do you walk away as you start losing or do you wait until all your winnings are gone? Start selling off to profit take and buy your land in Montana.
DIS at under $92, which is about 18x 2015 earnings estimates, would be an extremely attractive entry point IMHO. That's where my limit order is -- 91 and change.DIS is a classic "want to" stock for me. I don't "need" to own it to realize my financial goals. But it is a fantastic company with a future of limitless potential and I would be happy to own it for decades to come if I can get it at what I consider a bargain price.
Buy buy buy
Back over $115. Only need to go to Target...or your grocery store...or the pet store to see which division's earnings projections were terribly understated.
Yup, like taking candy from a baby.
Grantland is no more. I was a faithful reader but it seemed like more of a vanity / cocktail party play...never to be a huge revenue driver.
Page 1 you said bought on August 5. Price was $112 on August 5. August 24 it was $90. Today it is $114.This is what you defined as taking candy from a baby? Suffering through a $22 loss only to make $2 and then brag about it?
I bought three times in three weeks and I believe stated I was buying again and again, all the way down. It worked out and was easy money. Just like GM and C during the bailout. As a former Walt Disney employee I have a lot of faith in how they operate their businesses for the most part. ESPN is the area of concern, but not for the reasons you cited. It isn't cord cutting doing the real damage, it is cord shaving which I described here on several occasions over the years.That's what has them in a tight spot right now. Two friends of mine were let go last week, so it is a tough situation.So yes, knowing the company and what they do, I was confident and why I said multiple times to buy buy buy. If I said it at $110, I certainly kept saying it as it got cheaper. Easy money when you consider their broader portfolio and especially with Star Wars about to come out.
You lost $10 bucks a share when you bought Disney a week ago. Meanwhile, AT&T going sideways down. Sell, sell, sell. I will listen to Heise since he built The Al.http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/t
C lost 96% of its value all the way down into 2009. Yet you managed to buy the low, but not 70% before the low, but the absolute low after a three-year relentless decline, and make money???? Like GM they were both going out of business and only survive because of government bailouts. You make money because of socialism.Since you're that good at market timing, when will we see the announcement for the Chico Bail Bonds school of Business at Marquette University?
I make money based on common sense and market realities. I abhor the bailouts that Bush started and Obama completed, but that doesn't make me stupid not to pounce on them. No way the gov't was going to let GM or C fail. That's the opportunity.This is why a few weeks ago I told you August 5th to buy, August 16th to buy, August 20th to buy, etc. You have to look at the bigger picture, not the micro story in my opinion. When all the Sony stuff was hitting the fan, I bought Sony. If you think it is a blip and the company over the longhaul is likely to overcome, go for it. Now, if they have a fundamental massive problem that has no shot, then stay the hell away for obvious reasons. I don't believe in legalizing pot, but I know its going to happen. Thinking about buying some marijuana stocks now to get ahead of the 10 year run up when it is legalized. Healthcare, very much staying in that for the longhaul....so on and so forth.
I make money based on common sense and market realities. I abhor the bailouts that Bush started and Obama completed, but that doesn't make me stupid not to pounce on them. No way the gov't was going to let GM or C fail. That's the opportunity.This is why a few weeks ago I told you August 5th to buy, August 16th to buy, August 20th to buy, etc.
You do realize that GM filed for bankruptcy in 2009. That means that the stock went to ZERO(!) and the Government took them over (nationalized them). So anyone that said the Government was going to bail them out lost 100% of their investment. Not 99% but 100%. The company you claimed to have bought and made money does not exist anymore.The current stock called GM is a complete new company with no ties to the previous company and was IPO'ed (Initial Public Offering) on November 17, 2010 at $33. Yesterday it closed at $34. No one has made money on it in the five years it has existed ... except for the world's greatest market timers. To be clear, you concluded in 2008 it was a buy but you waited until the stock went to zero first, then wait two more years for the IPO, then waited another 18 months after the IPO when it slumped to $20 in 2011 and 2012, and then you finally bought. So today at $34 you're sitting with a nice profit. (Incidentally the Government took the company at an average price of $44 and sold it at $33 and lower so it lost a ton of money on it.)Why are your wasting you time in the Cable/Sat TV industry. You should be on Wall Street making billions.
ESPN reported today that it has lost 7 million subscribers in the last two years. It now has 92 million subscribers, a 10 year low.http://www.marketwatch.com/story/disney-is-losing-espn-subscribers-by-the-millions-2015-11-26This is a far steeper rate than most thought (shocking rate according to some) and not close to ending. Most analyst think is ESPN is "done" and will struggle with a bloated cost structure, continuing loss of subscribers and turmoil for many more years.These same analysts like Disney stock because Bob Iger (Disney CEO) is a brilliant manager and he knows ESPN is "done" and repositioning himself away from ESPN and toward other Disney Properties (Star Wars and theme parks).Disney's stock is down 4% today to $113.Could the Big East have made a brilliant move getting away from ESPN and it's insanely high cost structure that will lead to massive changes and cost structure in the future? In a few years Fox Sports might look like a better option compared to the explosion about to happen in Bristol.And was the Big East brilliant in signing a 12 year deal at the high? It has an overvalued cash flow stream for another 10 years. Good luck to the ACC and the NFL when their deals are up and they find out they are not worth what they thought.
LOLHow it is shocking to some when little old me told you this 2 and 3 years ago? If any analyst said this, they should be fired for incompetence. When we instituted skinny packages at DIRECTV it was with the SOLE PURPOSE of taking out sports content because it was so expensive. We created SELECT package to do that for that purpose. Disney knew exactly what it meant. To get the higher rate they wanted, they had to give on the penetration numbers.THAT, is what people are missing here. There was always 50 to 60% of people that don't give two squirts about sports and never wanted ESPN to begin with, but DISNEY forced all the MVPDS (cable, telco, satellite) to penetrate Disney in all of their packages. When they did that, it kept raising the costs of programming so much that distributors had to raise prices every year to customers to keep pace. This is not just a Disney thing, but they are the biggest influencer on the cost side. As a result, skinny packages were introduced by DIRECTV and Comcast, and others followed suit soon thereafter. As a result, Disney loses subscribers, easily forecast BUT they were made whole by the dollar rate per sub they have.As for your ACC and NFL comments.....I'll bet a year of my salary that the next NFL deal will be gangbusters in the early 2020's and will far exceed what the current ones do. ACC will also make out very well. Right now, ESPN overspent, but they are still making a ton of money which most people apparently want to ignore. They downsized because they want to maintain their profit margins for overspending on the NFL and other properties. That's their mistake on the spend, but this is hardly an organization hurting in the pocketbook. I have a ton of friends at ESPN at the executive level, and they are doing just fine and will be for many many many years to come. They will do special rates, if I had to guess, in the mobile space and monetize in the skinny packages as well.
Here is what I read ....ESPN is losing revenue ESPN overspent of TV rightsESPN will over spend even more on TV rightsESPN has too high a cost structure Everyone at ESPN will be fine.