COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Mutaman]

Sarcasm, man.

I suppose. But its hard keeping all the Wades and the MUs straight here. This sounded straight out of the Trumpster playbook.

[Hards Alumni]

March 28th to April 5th read the comments here by a number of members.  The cheerleading in how stupid he was, how the death rate would have exploded by now.  Even last week how he has to be hiding the numbers. 

The partisanship is so bad.

I think you misunderstand the word "Exactly". 

[Hards Alumni]

It’s an advisory alert and directive to medical professionals to provide more information. Similar to outbreaks of other contagious diseases that occur.

It’s VERY different than calling it “terrifying” or saying 30-fold for something that now affects .3% of children instead of .01%. Or other inflammatory headlines.

It does exactly what should be done. Inform and bring awareness, not incite fear or increasing anxiety.

I agree, we could use some reporting without the inflammatory language.  But that type of language is so prevalent that everything feels like an exaggeration to me.  I'm just sort of numb to it at this point.

[GooooMarquette]

The study below by the U of MN is pretty damn scary. It shows that small extensions of the stay at home order - a week or two - would not significantly delay the peak or decrease total deaths. I will be the first to admit that the latter part surprised me. I thought keeping people home a few more weeks would make a bigger difference.

But the raw numbers are what really stunned me. With our order expiring at Midnight Sunday, the predicted deaths are as follows:

As of today: 663
By May 31: 1441
By March: 29,000

That's right: 29,000 deaths in one state that has excellent healthcare capabilities, and which thus far has done fairly well at keeping the numbers down.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/05/14/latest-mn-modeling-major-effect-of-quarantine-is-delaying-covid19-peak-not-preventing-it

Then I thought about what this might mean for the country. MN currently accounts for about 1.7% of the US population, so I did a rough extrapolation of that number across the US population (recognizing that some areas will likely do better, and some worse; like I said, a rough calculation). The result would mean 1.7 million deaths by March. We are currently at 85,000 nationally.

I recognize that this is just one study, and there are many moving parts. But if those numbers prove to be anywhere close to accurate, they indicate that we are in for a long, painful year.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Just speculation but i don't suspect any other administration would be accusing joe Scarborough of murder in the middle of a pandemic. or accusing their predecessor of treason, or saying we should inject bleach to kill COVID-19. Or appointing their dim witted son in law to lead the fight. not even jerry ford. Just me speculating.

I try to picture Billy Carter leading a task force if something like this happened under Jimmy Carter lol.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Gooo - it really points to whether or not you believe there is/will be an effective vaccine and treatment (I say is for rocket).  If we think we can do it, better to delay.  If we think it’s unlikely, then we are just delaying the inevitable. 

[MU82]

I try to picture Billy Carter leading a task force if something like this happened under Jimmy Carter lol.

Had Hillary won, right-wingers would have had a collective coronary if she had appointed either Chelsea or Marc Mezvinsky to bring peace to the Middle East and to lead the U.S. response to a global pandemic.

But at least Jared has declared victory over the coronavirus, so there's that.

[cheebs09]

One question I have is when did the guidance on masks change and why? I believe the CDC and Dr. Fauci said masks didn’t matter much unless they were N95. Due to poor fit, causing people to touch their face, and giving a false sense of security, they did more harm than good. Plus, the particles are so small it doesn’t block transmission.

Now there are comments like “if you want to know if someone is a thoughtless jerk, just look to see if they aren’t wearing a mask.”

I’ll definitely wear a mask if mandated, it just seems like there’s been a 180 on this. I’ve avoided it because all I have are makeshift masks that either don’t cover everything or are a very poor fit. For example, if I keep reusing the same mask, I think the virus stays on that material for awhile.

Just have been surprised about the mask mandates as in the beginning it seemed like most medical professionals thought there wasn’t a benefit.

[GooooMarquette]

One question I have is when did the guidance on masks change and why? I believe the CDC and Dr. Fauci said masks didn’t matter much unless they were N95. Due to poor fit, causing people to touch their face, and giving a false sense of security, they did more harm than good. Plus, the particles are so small it doesn’t block transmission.

Now there are comments like “if you want to know if someone is a thoughtless jerk, just look to see if they aren’t wearing a mask.”

I’ll definitely wear a mask if mandated, it just seems like there’s been a 180 on this. I’ve avoided it because all I have are makeshift masks that either don’t cover everything or are a very poor fit. For example, if I keep reusing the same mask, I think the virus stays on that material for awhile.

Just have been surprised about the mask mandates as in the beginning it seemed like most medical professionals thought there wasn’t a benefit.

Most of what I have read seems to indicate that a simple cotton mask is essentially useless in preventing you from getting infected, but it can help in preventing you from spreading the infection to others if you have it.

[GooooMarquette]

Gooo - it really points to whether or not you believe there is/will be an effective vaccine and treatment (I say is for rocket).  If we think we can do it, better to delay.  If we think it’s unlikely, then we are just delaying the inevitable.

I think there will be some advances on the treatment front, but I am skeptical that they will arrive soon or be dramatic. As for a vaccine, I fully believe we will have one, but almost certainly not before March.

My hope was that the delay from stay at home orders would be more effective in reducing total numbers for a longer period of time. This study, if it proves to be correct, seems to indicate that delays are small and minimally effective.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Just have been surprised about the mask mandates as in the beginning it seemed like most medical professionals thought there wasn’t a benefit.

I always thought this was an interesting east vs. west debate too.  If we take the assumption that no culture owns the smartest health care professionals...then it sure doesnt seem as settled as our medical pro's made it seem initially.  I also think that our severe shortage in PPE played into this messaging too (at least from the govt).  We were short and wanted to preserve the masks for those who needed them--warning this isnt an attempt to be political - other govts were short too.

[MUfan12]

One question I have is when did the guidance on masks change and why? I believe the CDC and Dr. Fauci said masks didn’t matter much unless they were N95. Due to poor fit, causing people to touch their face, and giving a false sense of security, they did more harm than good. Plus, the particles are so small it doesn’t block transmission.

Now there are comments like “if you want to know if someone is a thoughtless jerk, just look to see if they aren’t wearing a mask.”

I’ll definitely wear a mask if mandated, it just seems like there’s been a 180 on this. I’ve avoided it because all I have are makeshift masks that either don’t cover everything or are a very poor fit. For example, if I keep reusing the same mask, I think the virus stays on that material for awhile.

The mob mentality surrounding this is so annoying. On both sides.

[forgetful]

I think there will be some advances on the treatment front, but I am skeptical that they will arrive soon or be dramatic. As for a vaccine, I fully believe we will have one, but almost certainly not before March.

My hope was that the delay from stay at home orders would be more effective in reducing total numbers for a longer period of time. This study, if it proves to be correct, seems to indicate that delays are small and minimally effective.

I'm a bit more optimistic on the treatment front. I think we see some monoclonal antibody treatments come online pretty fast.

The question is when. September would be unprecedented speed, but would save countless lives. If it takes to December?...still a lot of deaths.

And I agree with those models. If we can't get a treatment online, the probability we see deaths over 1M is high. I'm cautiously optimistic we can get treatments online. I'm basing my optimism on some colleagues in this arena, who are normally fairly pessimistic, but who are instead surprisingly optimistic here.

[MU82]

Here we go ... President Pandemic on my state, NC:

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/rnc-2020/article242759436.html?

President Donald Trump this week accused North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper of “playing politics” with reopening the state, and said it would be “bad for them” if the state were to delay the start of the Republican National Convention in Charlotte.

Trump made his comments in an interview with the Washington Examiner. In a wide-ranging interview, reporter Salena Zito asked him whether Democrats’ plan to scale back their convention would affect the GOP gathering, which is scheduled to start Aug. 24.

“No, no,” Trump replied. “We’ll have a convention. I’m a traditionalist, but we’ll have to see, like everything else, but I think we’ll be in good shape by that time. We have a great state, North Carolina, that’s been very, very good.

“Although, it’s got a Democrat governor, so we have to be a little bit careful. It’s got a Democrat governor, so we have to be a little bit careful with that, because they’re playing politics. They’re playing politics, as you know, by delaying the openings. ... To me that’s politics. They think it’s a bad thing for me if they delay the opening. I think it’s bad for them. And you have people protesting outside, and those people like Trump.”

So much here to unwrap ...

Yeah, the protesters -- all couple hundred of them -- love Trump. You could tell from the confederate flags, the guns, the white faces and the guys talking about lynching.

And it sure sounds like somebody is "playing politics" there, but it isn't Cooper -- who is following the very guidelines Trump himself set. Actually, Cooper very much wants to re-open the state's economy and has been gradually doing so even though all of the benchmarks haven't been met.

And what is  "bad for them"? Another threat from the guy who threatened to withhold PPE to states unless the governors bent the knee and kissed the emperor's ... um ... ring?

And it isn't Trump's decision if we even hold the RNC anymore.

And finally, if President Pandemic is a "traditionalist," so are Bernie Sanders, Ron Paul and Ross Perot.

[Pakuni]

The mob mentality surrounding this is so annoying. On both sides.

Evidence at this point indicates that wearing a mask reduces the likelihood of spreading the virus if you have it.
Refusing to wear a mask says "I don't care if I pass a potentially fatal disease onto others."
I'm not sure what you mean by mob mentality, but a little public shaming of these idiots doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The question is when. September would be unprecedented speed, but would save countless lives. If it takes to December?...still a lot of deaths.

forgetful, is the timeline mostly driven by the need to ramp up mass production? Or is there still a lengthy period of testing to prove efficacy and safety?

[GooooMarquette]

I'm a bit more optimistic on the treatment front. I think we see some monoclonal antibody treatments come online pretty fast.

The question is when. September would be unprecedented speed, but would save countless lives. If it takes to December?...still a lot of deaths.

And I agree with those models. If we can't get a treatment online, the probability we see deaths over 1M is high. I'm cautiously optimistic we can get treatments online. I'm basing my optimism on some colleagues in this arena, who are normally fairly pessimistic, but who are instead surprisingly optimistic here.

I sure hope your optimism is warranted. In my years of experience in watching new drugs get developed up close, I still think a December timeline is a huge longshot.

[Jockey]

Yesterday, Texas health officials reported 58 new deaths related to the coronavirus and 1,448 new cases, the highest single-day increase for both numbers.

[mu03eng]

Between this article and the success of convalescent plasma seems probable that long term and herd immunity will be a thing

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity#

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Between this article and the success of convalescent plasma seems probable that long term and herd immunity will be a thing

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity#

This is great news.  I feel like it’s been a while since we have learned anything new with this virus (at least on the positive side).  So just reading about a deeper understanding of how we fight this was uplifting.

[MU82]

Yesterday, Texas health officials reported 58 new deaths related to the coronavirus and 1,448 new cases, the highest single-day increase for both numbers.

Stop rooting for Texans to die, brand!

Because, dontcha know, stating a fact = rooting for death.

[WarriorDad]

I think you misunderstand the word "Exactly".

There were so many of you it wasn't exactly worth my time.

[mu03eng]

This is great news.  I feel like it’s been a while since we have learned anything new with this virus (at least on the positive side).  So just reading about a deeper understanding of how we fight this was uplifting.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1261052353773363200.html

Heres another positive, albeit preliminary, study on immunity. High likelihood that a vaccine can be found and a possibility that a vaccine could be found leveraging existing vaccines (alteration of timeline and likely safer vaccine). Also provides some indication if your body is good at fighting off the flu that it reduces the impact of Covid.

[WarriorDad]

Masks were to be used, then they shouldn't, then they should per our medical experts.

There was the story out of Stanford early on that mouthwash killed the virus, then it was debunked as a myth, now yesterday a strong push again that mouthwash may kill the virus and be a treatment (limited) for this.

Virus was contagious person to person, then it wasn't (WHO), then it was.

I feel bad for the medical experts because they do not know.  It is also why people are frustrated because they are used to some MacGyver 1 hour solution. In my opinion it is also why people (including politicians) entertain other ideas that may or may not work in the hope of a magical elixir.  The back and forth of what is or isn't effective and the continual changes by experts doesn't help.

[Hards Alumni]

There were so many of you it wasn't exactly worth my time.

Yet, you can't find exactly a single instance.  Ever consider you dreamed it up, sure wouldn't be the first time.