COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[jesmu84]

And you’re inconsistent.

What am I inconsistent about?

It's also far better to change a stance on something when you learn new information than be disingenuous when discussing a topic.

[pacearrow02]

What am I inconsistent about?

It's also far better to change a stance on something when you learn new information than be disingenuous when discussing a topic.

What has been learned regarding bars now being safe or not safe? 

[jesmu84]

What has been learned regarding bars now being safe or not safe?

What am I inconsistent about?

[pacearrow02]

What am I inconsistent about?

Your criticisms.

[jesmu84]

Your criticisms.

Such as?

[GooooMarquette]

Buckle up and get ready for the next few months to get even worse. Keep wearing your mask, washing your hands and practicing social distancing...and try to get your vaccine as soon as you are eligible.

C.D.C. Warns the New Virus Variant Could Fuel Huge Spikes in Covid Cases

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/health/covid-cdc-variant.html

Federal health officials sounded the alarm Friday about a fast spreading, far more contagious variant of the coronavirus that is projected to become the dominant source of infection in the country by March, potentially fueling another wrenching surge of cases and deaths.

In a study released on Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that its forecasts indicated outbreaks caused by the new variant could lead to a burgeoning pandemic this winter. It called for a doubling down on preventive measures, including more intensive vaccination efforts across the country.

The variant is not known to be more deadly or to cause more severe disease. But the dire warning — hedged by limited data about just how prevalent the variant first identified in Britain has become — landed in a week where the nation’s nascent vaccination campaign was hampered by confusion and limited supplies as demand grew among growing numbers of eligible people

[MU82]

Perfect.

Remember the good ol' days of 2020, when most of us assumed that 2021 would have to be better?

[tower912]

'cuz 4k dead per day is just the beginning.  And ample proof we did way too much social distancing, lockdowns, and mask wearing.

[MU82]

Sad story about how one large segment of America's refusal to admit that COVID-19 is a real and deadly threat resulted in the very preventable death of one of their own.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/us/politics/relph-covid-minnesota.html?campaign_id=56&emc=edit_cn_20210118&instance_id=26122&nl=on-politics-with-lisa-lerer&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=49587&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa

Republicans in the Minnesota State Senate were feeling jubilant after the November election. They had held onto a slim majority following an onslaught by Democrats trying to win control. Now, it was time to party.

More than 100 senators, their spouses and their staff members gathered for a celebratory dinner at a catering hall outside the Twin Cities on Nov. 5, two days after Election Day. Masks were offered to guests on arrival, but there was little mask wearing over hours of dining and drinking, at a moment when a long-predicted surge in coronavirus infections was gripping the state.

At least four senators in attendance tested positive for Covid-19 in the days that followed. One was the Republican majority leader, Paul Gazelka, the state’s most outspoken opponent of mask mandates and shutdown orders during the pandemic. He compared his symptoms to a “moderate flu” and recovered. So did two other senators who had tested positive after the dinner.

“Our future cannot be prolonged isolation, face coverings and limited activities,” Mr. Gazelka said defiantly in announcing his positive test.

The fourth was Senator Jerry Relph, a Vietnam veteran and grandfather from St. Cloud, Minn. Struggling to breathe after testing positive for the coronavirus, he was admitted to a hospital in mid-November. He died on Dec. 18, at age 76.

His daughter Dana Relph, who watched her father fight the disease as well as the cruel isolation it forces on patients and families, is still furious at Republican leaders for holding the dinner and the refusal of Mr. Gazelka to take responsibility.

“Why are you throwing a party with 100-plus people in the middle of a pandemic?” said Ms. Relph, 44, who was not allowed to visit her father until the day he died. “Why would you choose to do that when we know people are going to be eating and drinking and taking their masks off, where their inhibitions will be lowered? Why would you even consider that responsible behavior?”

Mr. Gazelka declined an interview request, and a spokeswoman said he would not respond to Ms. Relph “out of respect for privacy requested from the family.”

[GooooMarquette]

We will very likely record the 400,000th death today or tomorrow, and the incoming CDC director predicts we will hit 500,000 by mid-February. Just staggering.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/534653-incoming-cdc-director-expects-500000-coronavirus-deaths-by-mid-february

I have sometimes been called out for my pessimistic views on this thread...but those numbers are even higher than I predicted several months ago. I thought the states would do more, and I (irrationally) hoped that more citizens would do the right thing. I love America, but Americans disappoint me time and time again.

[forgetful]

We will very likely record the 400,000th death today or tomorrow, and the incoming CDC director predicts we will hit 500,000 by mid-February. Just staggering.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/534653-incoming-cdc-director-expects-500000-coronavirus-deaths-by-mid-february

I have sometimes been called out for my pessimistic views on this thread...but those numbers are even higher than I predicted several months ago. I thought the states would do more, and I (irrationally) hoped that more citizens would do the right thing. I love America, but Americans disappoint me time and time again.

What bothers me a decent bit is that some of us warned a year ago, that we might see 500k deaths in a year. Then, we were referred to as fearmongers. Now when it has happened and we highlight problems with actions, and plans, we are referred to as pessimists.

[GooooMarquette]

What bothers me a decent bit is that some of us warned a year ago, that we might see 500k deaths in a year. Then, we were referred to as fearmongers. Now when it has happened and we highlight problems with actions, and plans, we are referred to as pessimists.

Yep. Reminds me of the old adage that epidemiologists know they have done their job well when the general public thinks they overreacted.

Sometimes bad stuff requires responsible people to deliver bad news.

[forgetful]

https://www.politico.eu/article/new-coronavirus-variant-identified-in-german-hospital/

This report concerns me a bit. That it was detected due to "abnormalities" in COVID test results suggests the number of mutations in the Spike protein may be more signifiant in this variant, and/or antigen tests are no longer sensitive to this strain.

I tried to get to the original report, but my German is apparently too rusty to properly understand the actual origins of detecting this virus.

If it is no longer sensitive to antigen tests, I have some concerns.

But this highlights the risk of not getting control of this now. The more mutations that accumulate, the more likely that we observe an escape mutation no longer sensitive to our vaccines.

If we are getting close to an escape mutation, the prudent thing to do would be nationwide shutdowns again, until we can get enough people vaccinated and hopefully eradicate spread.

[GooooMarquette]

https://www.politico.eu/article/new-coronavirus-variant-identified-in-german-hospital/

This report concerns me a bit. That it was detected due to "abnormalities" in COVID test results suggests the number of mutations in the Spike protein may be more signifiant in this variant, and/or antigen tests are no longer sensitive to this strain.

I tried to get to the original report, but my German is apparently too rusty to properly understand the actual origins of detecting this virus.

If it is no longer sensitive to antigen tests, I have some concerns.

But this highlights the risk of not getting control of this now. The more mutations that accumulate, the more likely that we observe an escape mutation no longer sensitive to our vaccines.

If we are getting close to an escape mutation, the prudent thing to do would be nationwide shutdowns again, until we can get enough people vaccinated and hopefully eradicate spread.

Yikes - an escape mutation would be a horrific scenario.

It it appears we are at (or close to) that point, it would seem we should also consider getting the first dose of a vaccine into as many peoples' arms as possible as quickly as possible...even if it means giving the second dose a little longer after the first than originally planned. It may also be time to invoke the DPA to get as many facilities as possible cranking up production of the vaccines.

[MU82]

For some reason, I did not know that South Carolina coach Frank Martin had been infected with the coronavirus TWICE.

He just returned from his second absence.

“I think it’s so important for so many out there to understand that this is the second time I’ve gone through this,” Martin said. “The first time didn’t kick my tail the way this one kicked my tail.”

[forgetful]

For some reason, I did not know that South Carolina coach Frank Martin had been infected with the coronavirus TWICE.

He just returned from his second absence.

“I think it’s so important for so many out there to understand that this is the second time I’ve gone through this,” Martin said. “The first time didn’t kick my tail the way this one kicked my tail.”

Also, I've seen others report that the 2nd infection was worse. Some, only are asymptomatic the 2nd time, some get their "tail kicked".

[MU82]

Also, I've seen others report that the 2nd infection was worse. Some, only are asymptomatic the 2nd time, some get their "tail kicked".

One of my wife's co-workers, a fellow nurse, also got it twice.

[rocky_warrior]

If people are getting it multiple times, is that bad news for vaccine efforts?  Or do we expect the vaccine to be more effective than "home grown" antibodies / t-cells?

[GooooMarquette]

If people are getting it multiple times, is that bad news for vaccine efforts?  Or do we expect the vaccine to be more effective than "home grown" antibodies / t-cells?

Maybe, and maybe.

The efficacy of vaccines vs natural immunity varies from one illness (and vaccine) to another. There is also variability for a given illness - people who have a milder illness may generate a weaker long-term immune response, possibly because they encountered a lower viral load in the first place).

It's too early to know the answer for certain with Covid, but some of the Moderna data suggest that the vaccine may produce a better immune response, at least in terms of the antibody levels. This recent NYTimes article discusses it nicely.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/health/covid-natural-immunity.html

Vaccines for some pathogens, like pneumococcal bacteria, induce better immunity than the natural infection does. Early evidence suggests that the Covid-19 vaccines may fall into this category. Volunteers who received the Moderna shot had more antibodies — one marker of immune response — in their blood than did people who had been sick with Covid-19.

In other cases, however, a natural infection is more powerful than a vaccine. For example, having mumps — which can, in rare cases, cause fertility problems in men — generates lifelong immunity, but some people who have received one or two doses of the vaccine still get the disease.

[MU82]

Officially hit 400K.

A sad "accomplishment."

[Jockey]

Officially hit 400K.

A sad "accomplishment."

Finally, an acknowledgement of the death and suffering from the Capitol. Of course it wasn’t by the creep who helped kill a good percentage of the 400,000.

[JWags85]

Also, I've seen others report that the 2nd infection was worse. Some, only are asymptomatic the 2nd time, some get their "tail kicked".

My GF had it twice. First was kind of rough for a few days with side pneumonia and lethargy after. Second time she was asymptomatic, only knew she had it cause of an antibody test and working back on the timeline from when she had them

[rocky_warrior]

Man, you'd think Florida would get tired of winning all these accolades:
"With 46 cases, Florida has more instances of the UK COVID-19 variant than any other state in the U.S., according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTjQ4PKmUhA

[pacearrow02]

https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users

Wondering if Gooo or Forgetful can break this down in more layman’s terms?

Is PCR testing no longer a reliable trusted way of identifying infection?

[Skatastrophy]

https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users

Wondering if Gooo or Forgetful can break this down in more layman’s terms?

Is PCR testing no longer a reliable trusted way of identifying infection?

Seconded, it's been hard for a layman to keep on top of testing technologies. I can barely manage my own sleep schedule.