Oso planning to go pro
It will be interesting to see what happens with cases vs hospitalizations as the vaccine is rolled out to more and more high risk groups, too. Intuitively, it would make sense that as higher risk populations are vaccinated, we may see hospitalizations and deaths decrease even with steady case rates. Even just nursing home vaccinations could have an impact. Then again, if any of these new strains are more severe, that would probably be more than enough to offset any gains :/
If we’re going to have travel restrictions, we should have actual restrictions. This nonsense of ‘suggesting’ people quarantine is absurd. And I just read on TripAdvisor a report by a guy who flew from Ireland yesterday about a packed plane with people refusing to wear masks and sit down. Ridiculous.
My 32 person shop skidded through 8+ months with no one infected.In December we had two brothers on 2nd shift out with COVID.This month the factory floor has been whacked. We have more than 1/2 of the machine operators out right know and a few on contact quarantine. Seems the bunch that came back positive had a hour+ long hangout together, without masks. I'm spending much more time in my office more than usual this week.
Viruses don't.
I now expect some scientific proof that viruses don't get/aren't lazy!
COVID-19 response ranked by country/territory, using six criteria:https://twitter.com/dadourado/status/1354805475255050240?s=19
There will be more. Hence the assumption that there is a significant undercount of deaths from COVID. Doesn't make it right or excuse it.
ok, so .. we're totally doomed: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1354995265426616321.htmlGlobal masking and vaccination is never gonna happen.
Let’s start with two possible explanations for the recent improvement:1. We may be in the very early stages of herd immunity. Roughly 100 million Americans seem to have had the virus. (For every person who tests positive, three more have had it without being diagnosed, studies suggest.) Another 24 million people have received a vaccine shot.Put those two groups together, and you realize that about one-third of all Americans have at least some degree of immunity from the virus. That may be enough to begin — begin — slowing the spread, as my colleague Donald G. McNeil Jr. explained on “The Daily.”2. More Americans may be wearing masks and staying socially distant. Many still are not, as I saw on my recent 1,600-mile road trip. But any increase in safe behavior matters.
I'm late to the party, but I also think these two things play together in the way social groups self-select. If for simplicity we say that 1 out of every 3 Americans has had it, what proportion of Americans who do not distance or mask have had it? Got to be higher right? So maybe there's legitimiate herd immunity building among those "high contraction risk" groups that is applying downward pressure on new infections, while the masked and distanced are continuing to keep their rates low by taking those measures.
I think the simple answer is too many Americans chose to gather & spread germs for the holidays, and numbers are rapidly falling from those events. I don't think there's anything near herd immunity.
Also if you subscribe to natural herd immunity you should check out Manaus. We are no where near their first spike’s level of prevalence and they still got slammed again.