Scholarship table
Take this stuff elsewhere.
Yeah its getting pretty obvious that some places "opened" way too soon and without adeequate resources in place. But its also pretty obvious that a good portion of the country doesn't really care.
Given all the things that have gone on since reopening and how far back a lot of the reopenings were, I don't think we can say this is a reopening problem. I'd say this is an overconfidence problem, partly due to the constant "we are all gonna die" narrative which seemed to never manifest. Well its manifesting now and some places are paying the consequences of their hubris
I apologize in advance if this should be in another thread. In the last few weeks, almost daily I see ESPN site noting a college football program with double digit COVID positives among the players. How can they expect to play this contact sport in the fall/cool weather without infecting each other?The NFL, NBA and MLB (big maybe) aspire to terms of reopening. In reading those terms they dont have a re-shutdown contingency when players are infected . When just one (Rudy Gobert) caught it so did at least one of his teammates. I cant imagine any agent who will let his player continue on after infection hits a team.My pessimistic gut feeling is creeping in that for all the talk/plans and optimism of re- starting up the big time pro and collegiate team sports...when the teams actually physically convene and interact; the virus will hit and these restarts will have to re-shutdown. We may not have major team sports in 2020.Your thoughts?
eng ... I greatly appreciate and respect your opinions here, so this may seem harsher than I intend it and I apologize in advance if I'm misunderstanding you. But this reads to me as complete spin to absolve those who played down this threat in the early weeks.What you seem to be saying is that blame for what we're seeing today falls, at least in part, on those who correctly warned us that this is what would happen if people didn't heed the warnings (which, by the way, were never "we're all going to die," though I understand you need such hyperbole to make your case). Seems the ultimate damned if you do, damned if you don't. Don't warn people? It's your fault they're sick. Do warn people? It's your fault they're sick.
I can’t speak for Eng but I share some of his sentiments.And I don’t think it’s absolution. I’m sure he’s not speaking to people calling it a hoax or saying death counts would be lower than a flu season. But rather to the alternative to those championing most of the fearful projections. Maybe they didn’t say “we are all gonna die” but there were people warning against people dropping dead on flights, bodies in the streets, broad deaths across all age groups, lockdowns into 2021, etc... That level of dire projections haven’t come trueNow you have places meeting metrics, beginning reponening, and people immediately began cautioning on the second wave how bad this was still gonna be, etc and I think people got fed up and over confident, which is what he’s speaking to. And I’m not talking AZ or FL, I’m talking to the reaction of people in places like WI, OH, IL that are managing well. That sort of constant paranoia generation in the face of improving situations doesn’t breed vigilance, it breeds exhaustion and defiance. I do think the irony here is the states I mentioned flattened the curve whereas the recent hotspots never did as they “started” their curves latter and opened prematurely. But here we are
I think the exhaustion and defiance was bred in part by inconsistent messaging at the top. And I’m being generous by calling it “inconsistent.”
I don’t disagree. I think inconsistent messaging all over the place has been an issue. And no this isn’t whataboutism or very fine people on both sides, it’s people predicting this to be the Black Plague and others calling it a mild flu or a hoax and much of the common sense, moderate approach that is most apt and palatable is discarded in favor of the politicization of this whole situation that has emerged. It’s beyond frustrating.
Yeah I don’t think so. I think if the President would have stuck to messaging and actually lead versus bitching about the economy and sending out his Liberate posts, that the opening would have been handled better. Very few (if any) compared this to the Black Death. And no one I can recall in a position of authority.
Honestly, about 3-weeks to a month after major reopening is when I would predict a noticeable trend in surge of cases. We are essentially a month after most things opened in places like Texas and Florida and we are seeing the sustained increases. Texas allowed restaurants, barber shops, etc. to open on May 18th. You can see a noticeable change in inflection point in case curves about 1-week later that only grew. 100% consistent with opening too soon without plans in place. https://www.keranews.org/post/did-texas-reopen-too-soonFlorida went to phase 2 of the reopening the same day. They see a noticeable change in inflection point about a week and a half later. Both are consistent with what you would expect to observe in regard to timelines for opening too soon. Importantly, both states were very poor at testing when they reopened, and occur in areas where buy-in for social distancing and preventive measures are low. I'm not saying opening was necessarily bad, that is a more complicated argument, but the trends are exactly what you would expect in terms of timelines for reopening too soon.