Neither "great," nor a "disaster" -- final grade still to come

[MU82]

If our great 3-point shooters -- Sam and Markus -- had hit a few more wide open 3-pointers over the last two weeks (the kind of shots they normally hit in their sleep), and/or if Joey didn't disappear, Wojo's "system" would have delivered an outright BEast title.

As I said, the coach is the CEO, and he has to own it. And he is owning it, at least publicly.

But any coach needs his best players to play their best, especially at crunch time. Al lost plenty of games when his best players had bad games; so did Buzz; so does K; so does (insert coach's name here).

[Goose]

TAMU
I think you are close to being correct on your assessment. I am not sure they selected players to meet a certain plan. I have said many times, this team surpassed my expectations and I am happy about that. That said, they have no margin for error, even in a down ball season.
You know current game far better than I do, but think I am pretty knowledgeable ball guy. In watching other games I feel there is a big gap between us and top ten teams. I think your comment on Sacar is accurate, but I if was coach I would not bet on him being the difference maker.

[Goose]

MU82
Our best three point shooters carried us for four weeks, it is law of averages. You know your stuff, why do you only look at one side of the equation. I admit they are better and happy about that. Not sure why many want to paint a rosier picture than reality is.

Trust me, I want to believe and live the dream. I am not a negative Nellie, living in hopes of Al walking back into the door. I have had up close and personal relationship with program for nearly 50 years and get the whole thing. I have never left MU bandwagon, but try to view the facts and not let emotion take over.

[muwarrior69]

MU82
Our best three point shooters carried us for four weeks, it is law of averages. You know your stuff, why do you only look at one side of the equation. I admit they are better and happy about that. Not sure why many want to paint a rosier picture than reality is.

Trust me, I want to believe and live the dream. I am not a negative Nellie, living in hopes of Al walking back into the door. I have had up close and personal relationship with program for nearly 50 years and get the whole thing. I have never left MU bandwagon, but try to view the facts and not let emotion take over.

I have yet to see this team put away an opponent where Sam and Markus and Sacar and Joey and Theo are all contributing. The team usually defers to Markus or Sam and they become the one horse pony show. That scenario has carried us for most of the season but has failed in these last 4 games. Our biggest problem is that we do not handle ball pressure very well and Markus has to be able to break the double team if we are going to succeed in both tournaments.

[MU82]

MU82
Our best three point shooters carried us for four weeks, it is law of averages. You know your stuff, why do you only look at one side of the equation. I admit they are better and happy about that. Not sure why many want to paint a rosier picture than reality is.

Trust me, I want to believe and live the dream. I am not a negative Nellie, living in hopes of Al walking back into the door. I have had up close and personal relationship with program for nearly 50 years and get the whole thing. I have never left MU bandwagon, but try to view the facts and not let emotion take over.

Not exactly sure what you're saying here, Goose.

The law of averages actually states that Markus and Sam will shoot their averages. When it came to nut-cuttin' time, they didn't. Maybe tired. Maybe just unlucky. Maybe that's just sports. They're human.

I don't think I'm letting my emotions take over at all, nor am I trying to "paint a rosier picture." What I said is a fact. I can remember off the top of my head three wide-open 3s (one in each of 3 of our 4 losses down the stretch) that Sam had. Had any of them gone in, we might be sitting here as Big East champs today.

But hey, given the shot he made against Creighton, he's "allowed" to miss a couple of those, of course!

Just saying that Wojo's "system" calls for great shooters to take (and hopefully hit) wide-open 3s. A couple of those shots ... no coach in America could have designed anything better -- wide-open 3s by two of the best shooters in America.

To expect them to make close to their averages down the stretch isn't exactly blind hope.

It's sports. Stuff happens. It's why I stopped going apeshyte years ago about stuff I can't control. I love Marquette hoops, but I'll let others base their happiness and well-being on the play of 18-22 year olds (not talkin' about you, Goose).

[Its DJOver]

I have yet to see this team put away an opponent where Sam and Markus and Sacar and Joey and Theo are all contributing. The team usually defers to Markus or Sam and they become the one horse pony show. That scenario has carried us for most of the season but has failed in these last 4 games. Our biggest problem is that we do not handle ball pressure very well and Markus has to be able to break the double team if we are going to succeed in both tournaments.

Did you miss the game at the Dunk?  Substitute Ed for Theo and you have 5 players in double figures.  Maybe it's just because they're not a good team, but the last three halves we've outscored PC by 37. 

I would have loved if they've would have gotten 1 more win and 7 seed, since they swept StJ.  For as bad as we need a win right now, having gone 4-0 against our potential Thursday night opponents with an average margin of victory of 14.5 would have been as good as we could have hoped for.

[Lennys Tap]

If our great 3-point shooters -- Sam and Markus -- had hit a few more wide open 3-pointers over the last two weeks (the kind of shots they normally hit in their sleep), and/or if Joey didn't disappear, Wojo's "system" would have delivered an outright BEast title.

As I said, the coach is the CEO, and he has to own it. And he is owning it, at least publicly.

But any coach needs his best players to play their best, especially at crunch time. Al lost plenty of games when his best players had bad games; so did Buzz; so does K; so does (insert coach's name here).

1. 3 point shooters don't hit open 3s in their sleep. They make them at a certain %, some games higher, some games lower and some right on their average. I don't know if their "slumps" are because they're tight at crunch time, tired, injured or just regressions to the mean. If they're tired, that's on Wojo. If they're tight, that's partially on Wojo. If they're injured to the point where they're liabilities at crunch time, it's up to Wojo to call someone else's number. If it's simple regression it's nobody's fault. Who knows?
2. Joey "disappeared" long before our 4 game skid. He hit the wall (not surprisingly) a while ago. Whether or not Wojo has given Bailey and/or Cain sufficient time given Joey's slump is a matter of opinion. I honestly don't have a strong one.

[MU82]

1. 3 point shooters don't hit open 3s in their sleep. They make them at a certain %, some games higher, some games lower and some right on their average. I don't know if their "slumps" are because they're tight at crunch time, tired, injured or just regressions to the mean. If they're tired, that's on Wojo. If they're tight, that's partially on Wojo. If they're injured to the point where they're liabilities at crunch time, it's up to Wojo to call someone else's number. If it's simple regression it's nobody's fault. Who knows?
2. Joey "disappeared" long before our 4 game skid. He hit the wall (not surprisingly) a while ago. Whether or not Wojo has given Bailey and/or Cain sufficient time given Joey's slump is a matter of opinion. I honestly don't have a strong one.

Both reasonable points, especially about Bailey/Cain/Joey.

As for the shooting, I'll go back to what I said to Goose: Sam and Joey did not "revert" to their mean. Indeed, they significantly underperformed relative to their mean. If they had performed to their mean, they would have made a few of those shots.

Of course you are right that nobody makes 3s in their sleep. It was a figure of speech, and I think you know that. It means they are shots they routinely make. But they are not only human, they're not much older than kids, and misses happen.

I guess Sam and Markus have spoiled us for so long with their ability to make shots -- especially wide-open 3s -- that it surprises us if they miss 'em.

Again, this is Example No. 844 why I try not to get upset about things I cannot control. I'm not saying you're any different.

[Lennys Tap]

Both reasonable points, especially about Bailey/Cain/Joey.

As for the shooting, I'll go back to what I said to Goose: Sam and Joey did not "revert" to their mean. Indeed, they significantly underperformed relative to their mean. If they had performed to their mean, they would have made a few of those shots.

Of course you are right that nobody makes 3s in their sleep. It was a figure of speech, and I think you know that. It means they are shots they routinely make. But they are not only human, they're not much older than kids, and misses happen.

I guess Sam and Markus have spoiled us for so long with their ability to make shots -- especially wide-open 3s -- that it surprises us if they miss 'em.

Again, this is Example No. 844 why I try not to get upset about things I cannot control. I'm not saying you're any different.

Reverting to the mean by definition includes periods of either underperformance or outperformance. If Sam, for example, is historically a 40% 3 point shooter who makes 50 of his first 100, he's not "underperforming relative to his mean" when he make 30 of his next 100, he's reverting to the mean. The converse is also true.

[MU82]

Reverting to the mean by definition includes periods of either underperformance or outperformance. If Sam, for example, is historically a 40% 3 point shooter who makes 50 of his first 100, he's not "underperforming relative to his mean" when he make 30 of his next 100, he's reverting to the mean. The converse is also true.

He's a 45% shooter who was shooting 45% ... until the last 4 games, when a fellow Scooper said he shot something like 20%. I don't see as how that is "reverting to the mean," but I absolutely am neither a math expert nor a stats geek.

[1SE]

So the big question is, are we happy with a "B" coach in the long run?

[Cheeks]

So the big question is, are we happy with a "B" coach in the long run?

What unproven assistant coach are Pakuni and Lenny suggesting that will be an A coach replacement?

This is the path we almost always take.  Personally, I think B people can become A, and A can become B.  So far, so good as far as I am concerned.  The longer he stays, if success continues, better players will be landed and then things get interesting.  With better players better potential, but also more likely departures early...trade offs.

[MU82]

So the big question is, are we happy with a "B" coach in the long run?

Well, as recently as November, many Scoopers were saying Wojo was a C or D coach. So if he is a B coach now, he has proven that he can improve significantly ... and fairly quickly at that.

So to answer your question, I can be happy with a B coach now, and I have reasonable optimism that he can become a B+ coach or better soon.

[Lennys Tap]

He's a 45% shooter who was shooting 45% ... until the last 4 games, when a fellow Scooper said he shot something like 20%. I don't see as how that is "reverting to the mean," but I absolutely am neither a math expert nor a stats geek.

In Big East games this year Sam was shooting 39% from 3 pt range going into "the skid". He shot 32.3% during the 4 game losing streak (10/31), so now he's 37.5%. If he makes two more shots in those games he stays at 39%.

[Lennys Tap]

What unproven assistant coach are Pakuni and Lenny suggesting that will be an A coach replacement?

Please quote the post where Pakuni or I suggested a) that Marquette fire Wojo or b) we knew of a sure fire "A" assistant coach waiting in the wings.

Thanks in advance for the apology and retraction.

[skianth16]

Well, as recently as November, many Scoopers were saying Wojo was a C or D coach. So if he is a B coach now, he has proven that he can improve significantly ... and fairly quickly at that.

So to answer your question, I can be happy with a B coach now, and I have reasonable optimism that he can become a B+ coach or better soon.

With the way our defense improved from last year to this year, I think he's shown an ability to grow as a coach. Yes, I know that personnel make an impact there, but that's part of his learning curve too. He made the decision 2-3 years ago that he would be OK with a team that was disproportionately offensively focused, and it seems like he adjusted his view since then. In the last few years, I think you're right,  he's proven himself to be a B coach.

The issues this year - turnovers, big men in foul trouble, not closing out games - are all things he can help the team improve. If he's able to address these problems next year, then I think he can be fairly given a B+ or A- rating. If he proves he can keep landing top recruits, developing players, and maintain a winning identity, then he'll be deserving of an A rating.

[MU82]

In Big East games this year Sam was shooting 39% from 3 pt range going into "the skid". He shot 32.3% during the 4 game losing streak (10/31), so now he's 37.5%. If he makes two more shots in those games he stays at 39%.

Thanks Lenny. I thought I read the stats I quoted in a different comment stream. Laziness on my part. I appreciate you providing the correct facts.

And let me get this out there: I am NOT blaming Sam or Markus for the 4-game skid. It's sports. All kinds of things happen to determine the outcome. I mean, Markus missed a couple of FTs, too, something he just about never does. These are 20-year-old "kids," not machines.

Even Steph Curry misses wide-open 3s sometimes. Of course, when he does and the Warriors lose by 2, I'm not blaming Steve Kerr for it.

[tower912]

So the big question is, are we happy with a "B" coach in the long run?

As long as he performs at a b level and you see potential for growth, yes.    It is my recollection that not everyone was sad to see Crean go.  Some wanted him fired.  Even those who wanted to keep him were frustrated.   Sound familiar?

IMO, Wojo has not yet reached his ceiling. 

[Its DJOver]

With the way our defense improved from last year to this year, I think he's shown an ability to grow as a coach. Yes, I know that personnel make an impact there, but that's part of his learning curve too. He made the decision 2-3 years ago that he would be OK with a team that was disproportionately offensively focused, and it seems like he adjusted his view since then. In the last few years, I think you're right,  he's proven himself to be a B coach.

The issues this year - turnovers, big men in foul trouble, not closing out games - are all things he can help the team improve. If he's able to address these problems next year, then I think he can be fairly given a B+ or A- rating. If he proves he can keep landing top recruits, developing players, and maintain a winning identity, then he'll be deserving of an A rating.

Very well stated, and for the most part I would agree.  I do however think that Wojo is better at closing out games than you seem to imply.  The last four have been brutal and Wojo should absolutely get knocked for that, but by my count (which may be wrong) we are still 7-4 in games decided by 2 or less possessions, and we've won 10 straight OT games dating back three seasons.  Now I'm sure there was a fair bit of luck in that streak, and some games never should have gone to OT (Eastern Illinois last year for example), but how many coaches have had a ten game OT winning streak in their careers?

[Lennys Tap]

As long as he performs at a b level and you see potential for growth, yes.    It is my recollection that not everyone was sad to see Crean go.  Some wanted him fired.  Even those who wanted to keep him were frustrated.   Sound familiar?

IMO, Wojo has not yet reached his ceiling.

Your recollection re TC is accurate.

Good chance you're right on Wojo also. Here's hoping.

[tower912]

Everything is a risk.   Maybe this is Wojo's ceiling.   So keeping him is a risk.  Maybe his replacement is just another Dukiet.  So firing him is a risk.   I've been wrong before.  All I know is that two weeks ago almost nobody wanted him gone.  Except guru, who wanted undefeated and unscored upon.   There hasn't been a scandal, these have been 4 painful losses.   I'm not ready to cut him loose.

[Cheeks]

As long as he performs at a b level and you see potential for growth, yes.    It is my recollection that not everyone was sad to see Crean go.  Some wanted him fired.  Even those who wanted to keep him were frustrated.   Sound familiar?

IMO, Wojo has not yet reached his ceiling.

Fans.  Villanova fans wanted Wright fired a few years ago when they weren’t going far enough in the tourney.

Irrational ....FANatics

[Shooter McGavin]

As long as he performs at a b level and you see potential for growth, yes.    It is my recollection that not everyone was sad to see Crean go.  Some wanted him fired.  Even those who wanted to keep him were frustrated.   Sound familiar?

IMO, Wojo has not yet reached his ceiling.

This is correct.   There are two types of coaches that lead to basketball purgatory.

1) good recruiters who coach poorly

And

2) good coaches that can’t recruit.

Wojo, I think falls in the 1st category right now with a chance to improve his recruiting exponentially with success.

In addition he is improving in the coaching area as well compared to when he started.

The book is still out.  He built a foundation that can lead to success and now he needs to capitalize.  By next year in April we will know (purgatory or wildly fun ride).  It’s that simple. 

In my opinion it will take six years instead of the predetermined 5 years to judge.

Let’s hope for the best!

[Shooter McGavin]

Change 1) to good recruiters who are average coaches.