COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[GooooMarquette]

When I say full shutdown, I am largely saying what places like CT did. Other states really never went there. They allowed employers to determine who was "essential". In some of these areas that meant many businesses just deemed most of their staff "essential". And businesses labeled themselves as "essential".

Some of those areas are particularly hard hit right now.

Sounds like you and I are on the same page - basically back to before, but with more stringent limits on what constitutes an essential business or employee.

And masks for everyone who goes into an essential business, like a grocery store.

[Jockey]

White House is now going thru Dr. Fauci's entire career looking for errors he may have made so they can publicly destroy him.

They still have not reached their bottom. Just incredible lowlifes rersiding in the POTUS and VEEP offices.

[JWags85]

When I say full shutdown, I am largely saying what places like CT did. Other states really never went there. They allowed employers to determine who was "essential". In some of these areas that meant many businesses just deemed most of their staff "essential". And businesses labeled themselves as "essential".

Some of those areas are particularly hard hit right now.

So here is what is interesting to me. What do you do about a place like Ohio? You have the case explosions, but even assuming 2 week lags, hospitalizations and deaths aren’t following, both well below 21 day averages. Outside of a boilerplate “just wait 2 more weeks!!” response. What do you do with a state that has cases ramping without the “severe” cases or effects?  Whether this be from a weakened strain, less intense exposure, younger patients whatever.

Mandate masks and emphasize the isolating of at risk? And see where you go? I feel like full lockdown in that scenario is a tough sell. It’s totally merited and needed for places like FL or TX that are getting ripped up by their true first waves, but the others are more nuanced.

Also, unrelated, if I there is one thing I look forward to not hearing about ever again post COVID, it’s people trying to honestly use New Zealand as a comparative success to critique other countries response. The US could have Fauci with unilateral unchecked power to dictate COVID response and it would be a stupid flawed comparison

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

So here is what is interesting to me. What do you do about a place like Ohio? You have the case explosions, but even assuming 2 week lags, hospitalizations and deaths aren’t following, both well below 21 day averages. Outside of a boilerplate “just wait 2 more weeks!!” response. What do you do with a state that has cases ramping without the “severe” cases or effects?  Whether this be from a weakened strain, less intense exposure, younger patients whatever.

I would let the data guide the response.  What is their contact tracing saying.  Family events, frat parties, bars.  Then use public health communication or action if needed to reduce the activity.   

[Hards Alumni]

I think most states need a full 4-week shutdown. And I mean full, grocery stores being an exception.

After that reopen, but this time no bars, or inside seating at restaurants. Most other things can safely reopen with social distancing and masks.

If we do that now, we may be able to save some concept of school this fall.

What we can't afford is to go into fall/winter at all time high trending of cases.

Hey, that was my idea!

[Jockey]

I would let the data guide the response.  What is their contact tracing saying.  Family events, frat parties, bars.  Then use public health communication or action if needed to reduce the activity.

Sounds like a good idea, but....

trump just ordered hospitals to bypass CDC and send data to White House. Keeps getting worse, bordering on criminal.

[forgetful]

So here is what is interesting to me. What do you do about a place like Ohio? You have the case explosions, but even assuming 2 week lags, hospitalizations and deaths aren’t following, both well below 21 day averages. Outside of a boilerplate “just wait 2 more weeks!!” response. What do you do with a state that has cases ramping without the “severe” cases or effects?  Whether this be from a weakened strain, less intense exposure, younger patients whatever.

Mandate masks and emphasize the isolating of at risk? And see where you go? I feel like full lockdown in that scenario is a tough sell. It’s totally merited and needed for places like FL or TX that are getting ripped up by their true first waves, but the others are more nuanced.

Also, unrelated, if I there is one thing I look forward to not hearing about ever again post COVID, it’s people trying to honestly use New Zealand as a comparative success to critique other countries response. The US could have Fauci with unilateral unchecked power to dictate COVID response and it would be a stupid flawed comparison

Frenns already hit at this. But there needs to be a comprehensive examination of the data. I said most states (many may be more reasonable wording). For Ohio. I would not shut down right now. Here are a few reasons. They currently have a 6.0% positivity rate, which means much of their increase in cases is indeed due to more robust testing and tracing. They are currently observing an Ro of around 1.2, compared to 2.0 back in march. Although 1.2 indicates cases will continue to grow, they can hold off and hope less restrictive measures can have an effect. Also, they have substantial excess capacity in hospitals. So although there is an increase in cases, right now that does not seem to be a problem. I'd closely monitor the positivity rate and Ro trend and see what happens. I'd think they can handle double the case load they are currently seeing, but need to nudge that Ro back below 1 over time.

Now other states, California, TX, Florida, Alabama, MS, Georgia, Arizona are in clear shut down mode.

A large group of other states like Louisiana, Wisconsin, South Carolina, North Carolina, and more, likely should shut down. They are teetering on the edge right now, and gambling that mask-measures will be enough to turn the corner. If they are wrong, it will get significantly worse. The safe bet is a 2-4 week shutdown.

[JWags85]

A large group of other states like Louisiana, Wisconsin, South Carolina, North Carolina, and more, likely should shut down. They are teetering on the edge right now, and gambling that mask-measures will be enough to turn the corner. If they are wrong, it will get significantly worse. The safe bet is a 2-4 week shutdown.

Now why would Wisconsin be in “should shut down” more than Ohio? Still very low in total cases, no meaningful spikes in hospitalizations to accompany rising case numbers, and deaths still tending downward. I believe I saw a positivity rate of between 6-7%. I couldn’t find the the R0, but it looks like another situation like Ohio where risings cases are not being followed by escalating hospitalizations and deaths. My buddy who basically vacillates between 2 hospitals in the MKE as a perfusionist said they have no meaningful buzz or pop in hospitalizations in either of them.

I totally agree about the shutdown needed for places in the SunBelt that are getting explosive. But I don’t see it for somewhere like Ohio or Wisconsin. Mask up and social distance, sure absolutely, but the curve is already still flat for everything but cases.

[Jockey]

A large group of other states like Louisiana, Wisconsin, South Carolina, North Carolina, and more, likely should shut down. They are teetering on the edge right now, and gambling that mask-measures will be enough to turn the corner. If they are wrong, it will get significantly worse. The safe bet is a 2-4 week shutdown.

The crowds at Kenosha beaches the last week of June were the biggest I've seen. Ever.

Crowds in the dells the 1st week of July were huge - no one had masks.

I'm only surprised the numbers here aren't higher. I guess lot of out-of-staters at Dells helps our numbers.


Kids, teens, young adults, older adults - all without masks.Americans are truly ignorant people.

[🏀]

Wisconsin ✈️ New York, 14 day quarantine.

[forgetful]

Now why would Wisconsin be in “should shut down” more than Ohio? Still very low in total cases, no meaningful spikes in hospitalizations to accompany rising case numbers, and deaths still tending downward. I believe I saw a positivity rate of between 6-7%. I couldn’t find the the R0, but it looks like another situation like Ohio where risings cases are not being followed by escalating hospitalizations and deaths. My buddy who basically vacillates between 2 hospitals in the MKE as a perfusionist said they have no meaningful buzz or pop in hospitalizations in either of them.

I totally agree about the shutdown needed for places in the SunBelt that are getting explosive. But I don’t see it for somewhere like Ohio or Wisconsin. Mask up and social distance, sure absolutely, but the curve is already still flat for everything but cases.

I'm concerned about the positive test rate in WI and the poor tracking/tracing. The two make estimates of R0 difficult and unreliable (likely under-estimate). The trend is very concerning, but there is a degree of uncertainty. That is why I say probably "should shut down" but recognize it is a difficult call. Now is a time where you can preempt issues, with a short shutdown then a prolonged stable opening. If things don't make a turn for the better soon, you will be looking at more significant issues, and either higher fatalities and life-long complications, and/or a more significant duration shut down.

My personal opinion is to be risk averse on letting COVID grow, so I would lean towards a short shutdown in WI at this point, but don't fault someone for taking the risk and seeing if less significant restrictions can turn the corner. Making the call is the hard part. 

[jesmu84]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html

Didn't see this posted anywhere.

This seems like a bad decision.

[pbiflyer]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html

Didn't see this posted anywhere.

This seems like a bad decision.

I bet cases and death suddenly plummet. No reporting, no cases. Winning!

[Hards Alumni]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html

Didn't see this posted anywhere.

This seems like a bad decision.

Sounds like a good idea, but....

trump just ordered hospitals to bypass CDC and send data to White House. Keeps getting worse, bordering on criminal.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I am torn on this from what I have read.  Clearly there is a data problem at the CDC and Birx is extremely upset with the info an manner they are reporting.  Apparently hospitals are already reporting to the CDC and doing things again to other agencies just to satisfy all demands.  So there is a legitimate case to be made to change this. 

Alternatively, even prior republican appointed admins in the public health space feel like the tactic here is not right and they should fix the CDC instead of re-routing data/info.  Plus the trust levels are clearly at an all time low.

So even if we think the intention could be pure, it has the appearance of another ham-handed way to generate even more distrust than already exists.  Health Professionals all seem to know this is unusual and not right.  Yet no communication even trying to justify it.  Mind boggling.   

[Jockey]

I am torn on this from what I have read.  Clearly there is a data problem at the CDC and Birx is extremely upset with the info an manner they are reporting.  Apparently hospitals are already reporting to the CDC and doing things again to other agencies just to satisfy all demands.  So there is a legitimate case to be made to change this. 

Alternatively, even prior republican appointed admins in the public health space feel like the tactic here is not right and they should fix the CDC instead of re-routing data/info.  Plus the trust levels are clearly at an all time low.

So even if we think the intention could be pure, it has the appearance of another ham-handed way to generate even more distrust than already exists.  Health Professionals all seem to know this is unusual and not right.  Yet no communication even trying to justify it.  Mind boggling.

We know why the WH wants to control the data - and it is not to get the truth out to the public.

[Cfollow]

Please explain why this Canadian is so butt-hurt about the Covid-19 information coming from the administration?

[Hards Alumni]

RNC scale being reduced.

Good.  Glad to see there is some sense of reason.

[Jockey]

RNC scale being reduced.

Good.  Glad to see there is some sense of reason.

It has more to do with not wanting to be embarrassed again like Tulsa and New Hampshire.

[Jockey]

Deaths about to skyrocket.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Deaths about to skyrocket.

Is this just a random prediction or is there an article or other factor prompting you to post this?

[pbiflyer]

Florida Anti-Mask Activists Give Free Meals to People Without Masks as Virus Cases Surge
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-anti-mask-activists-give-free-meals-people-without-masks-virus-cases-surge-1517361

Anti-mask advocates in Florida protested mandatory use of face coverings during an event inside a restaurant and bar near Orlando on Saturday.

Those responsible for the gathering offered free meals to 100 patrons who opted to dine at the establishment without wearing a face mask, Reuters reported. A video of the weekend's rally showed the central Florida restaurant and bar, 33 & Melt, served dozens of customers that day. No one in the video appears to be wearing a mask.

[MU82]

RNC scale being reduced.

Good.  Glad to see there is some sense of reason.

They moved from Charlotte because our governor would not guarantee a full arena. Nor would he guarantee that there would not be mandates for masks and social distancing.

So now the event will be in Jacksonville in a less-than-half-full arena, and a mask mandate is in effect.

And that's only if they end up holding an in-person event at all.

I was very much in favor of my city hosting the event because I wanted all that money coming into the community. But as soon as ridiculous demands began being made, it was a no-brainer to say, "See ya." No responsible governor would guarantee what they wanted, let alone 2 months in advance.

[Pakuni]

At least they're being honest.

The Washington Post @washingtonpost

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany on school reopenings:
"The science should not stand in the way of this.”
pic.twitter.com/w6H9DM0uTV

[Jockey]

Is this just a random prediction or is there an article or other factor prompting you to post this?

No. Based on data I saw in an article today that showed the pattern of increased cases, increased hospitalizations, and then what comes next. Follows same pattern that we saw in NY.

I will try to find the article and post the link.