Explosions in Kiev

[source?]

Wouldn't this require the people telling the lies actually believing it? I mean if you know you're lying why invade and risk exposing yourself?

If the lie gets bigger at each stop along the chain of information, then the people at the top know their strength is exaggerated but not how much. Could have thought they would still have an easy victory.

[MUBurrow]

If the lie gets bigger at each stop along the chain of information, then the people at the top know their strength is exaggerated but not how much. Could have thought they would still have an easy victory.

Yeah, exactly the issue is the lies combined with the game of telephone. 

[pbiflyer]

An update from the Russia side (again mostly fact based, with one jab at lawyers).
- Exchange rate, which was frozen on Monday will begin trading at 10am Moscow time Tuesday for a limited session
- Remainder of MOEX still closed Tuesday
- Companies selling abroad are required to deposit 80% of earnings immediately in Rubles
- All non-payment overseas transfers by individuals and companies are blocked.   (i.e. you cannot get money out)
- Lots of companies over-reacting to the sanctions and stopping/slowing business.  Shippers, Mercedes, Volvo, tech, etc.  One tech company I know well reacted to the sanctions by laying off their entire Russian staff for the next month.  They and their products are not sanctioned... just their legal department, with an apparent inability to read the actual sanctions, decided to stop the business.
- Protesters get arrested
- General disdain for the Russian military.  People I talk to are on one hand disappointed with their seeming ineptitude but on the other hand not surprised and a little bit pleased.
- Apple/Google pay doesn't work with sanctioned banks.  Sanctioned bank cards don't work outside Russia. 
- large commodity producers are working to increase inventory of supplies like consumables, explosives, spare parts - quickly - "in case" things get worse.  Some are seeking a year's supply of same.

In short, the economic shock is just beginning.

Are you still there? Are you concerned about your own safety? Ability to leave? Take care, stay safe and thanks for the updates.

[NCMUFan]

Biden- State of the Union address tonight, 9 pm ET, 8 pm CT.

[NCMUFan]

It really is great to see a united Europe against the invasion.
A bunch of medium to small countries banding together is awesome.
I remember a number of years back in Billy Mitchell/Mitchell field or whatever the Milwaukee airport is called that Milwaukee has a sister city in Russia.
I personally thought it was pretty cool that stereotypes were trying to be removed of Russia.
From the captured Russian soldiers, you can see they are no different from us.
Every expression on their face is "This whole business totally sucks".

Charlotte ending their Russia sister city ties.
https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/charlotte-sever-ties-with-russian-sister-city/E3NFLSM6LFAUPNER4HNPH77O2E/
Didn't seem like a vibrant one in the past number of years.

[MUBurrow]

The ban on Russian vodka thing is funny and has major "freedom fries" vibes to it.  I read that something like <1% of vodka consumed in the US is actually made and imported from Russia, and that legacy brands like Stoli and Smirnoff haven't had any material ties to Russia for a long time, having been bought by non-Russian companies and produced elsewhere (like Chicago) for many years.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The ban on Russian vodka thing is funny and has major "freedom fries" vibes to it.  I read that something like <1% of vodka consumed in the US is actually made and imported from Russia, and that legacy brands like Stoli and Smirnoff haven't had any material ties to Russia for a long time, having been bought by non-Russian companies and produced elsewhere (like Chicago) for many years.

Stoli is made in Latvia.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The ban on Russian vodka thing is funny and has major "freedom fries" vibes to it.  I read that something like <1% of vodka consumed in the US is actually made and imported from Russia, and that legacy brands like Stoli and Smirnoff haven't had any material ties to Russia for a long time, having been bought by non-Russian companies and produced elsewhere (like Chicago) for many years.

Smirnoff was started by. Russian immigrant to Hartford, CT over 100 years ago.

[Billy Hoyle]

The ban on Russian vodka thing is funny and has major "freedom fries" vibes to it.  I read that something like <1% of vodka consumed in the US is actually made and imported from Russia, and that legacy brands like Stoli and Smirnoff haven't had any material ties to Russia for a long time, having been bought by non-Russian companies and produced elsewhere (like Chicago) for many years.

The most ridiculous part of the requirement some states have imposed that stores get rid of their supply of Russian vodka is the product has already been purchased. Everyone but the store has received their money, including the Russian companies. This is peak virtue signaling.

As said last night, the fact Russia hasn't taken Kyiv yet shows weakness and the general public and armchair intelligence analysts overestimating their capability. Hillary Clinton made this point last night on Maddow, including bringing up speculation from within that Putin is in mental decline.

https://www.ft.com/content/ba440d90-b0ba-4a73-a138-9cb1229b6cac

Western defence officials say there have been apparent Kremlin intelligence failures, citing a badly informed and overconfident Russian military led by a president whose attitude towards the invasion may have been distorted by a closed circle of pliant advisers.

Half a dozen western intelligence officials told the Financial Times that the Russian armed forces’ performance so far suggested Moscow had either failed to collect the correct information on Ukraine’s defences, or that it had been ignored by Putin and his most senior generals — or both.

“He’s biased to his own views of Ukraine and I doubt very much that anyone tells him the truth,” said one official. “About Ukraine, or about the Russian military.”

[Uncle Rico]

Stoli is made in Latvia.

It’s probably owned partially by the Russian mob, however

[WellsstreetWanderer]

Burrow  you are entirely correct. had a friend in beverage management tell me years ago that most "Russian" vodka was made here in the States.  As an aside ,when he was with Cuervo,  he also told me that there are only about 6 producers of Tequila in Mexico . So they are the source of all the hundreds of Tequila brands, LOL 

[Babybluejeans]

I caught the tail end of the cold war as a young kid and this is starting to feel like that. Gaming it out, how does this all end? How does the West not end up in a decade(s)-long cold war, or worse?

[Spotcheck Billy]

Burrow  you are entirely correct. had a friend in beverage management tell me years ago that most "Russian" vodka was made here in the States.  As an aside ,when he was with Cuervo,  he also told me that there are only about 6 producers of Tequila in Mexico . So they are the source of all the hundreds of Tequila brands, LOL 

That's not at all unlike whiskey in the US, the vast majority IIRC is made in Indiana at MGP under contract.
I get a kick out of all the new distilleries selling whiskey shortly after opening their doors.

[Galway Eagle]

That's not at all unlike whiskey in the US, the vast majority IIRC is made in Indiana at MGP under contract.

Also the same as whiskey in Ireland as Irish Distillers (French subsidiary) controls almost everything, only major brands not controlled by the conglomerate is Tullamore and Bushmills (though lots of new smaller distilleries popping up!)

[tower912]

I caught the tail end of the cold war as a young kid and this is starting to feel like that. Gaming it out, how does this all end? How does the West not end up in a decade(s)-long cold war, or worse?

This conflict is personality driven, not institution driven.   NATO is likely to emerge stronger and more united.   Russian military might is not what our worst case scenario led us to believe.
Russia will be isolated until Putin is gone.
Nuclear arsenal in the hands of a madman is the issue.   What will Russian generals do if Putin orders armageddon?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I caught the tail end of the cold war as a young kid and this is starting to feel like that. Gaming it out, how does this all end? How does the West not end up in a decade(s)-long cold war, or worse?

I certainly don't know how it ends, but if Putin had been satisfied in taking "only" the two breakaway provinces (which he destabilized in the first place), I doubt there would have been as strong a unified reaction from NATO and EU that we are seeing. Seems like a big miscalculation, but Pootie doesn't seem rational at this point.

[NCMUFan]

Opportunities to join the Foreign Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKrReH_UQFw

[Lennys Tap]

I certainly don't know how it ends, but if Putin had been satisfied in taking "only" the two breakaway provinces (which he destabilized in the first place), I doubt there would have been as strong a unified reaction from NATO and EU that we are seeing. Seems like a big miscalculation, but Pootie doesn't seem rational at this point.

The heroic stand by the Ukrainian people and the bumbling thus far by the Russians has united Europe and NATO as never before. If Ukraine had been a walkover (as most predicted) who knows how much resolve the West would have shown. But Russia in general and Putin in particular look vulnerable - and that has helped the heretofore reticent to grow a spine. That’s a good thing - and if it lasts bodes well for the future.

[Billy Hoyle]

Also the same as whiskey in Ireland as Irish Distillers (French subsidiary) controls almost everything, only major brands not controlled by the conglomerate is Tullamore and Bushmills (though lots of new smaller distilleries popping up!)

yep.  Pernod Ricard owns the Old Midleton Distillery outside of Cork where Jameson, Midleton, Powers, Redbreast, Spot, and Paddy are all produced.

However, Bushmills was owned by Diageo and was later "traded" to Cuervo for Don Julio and a spirit to be named later.

[MuggsyB]

The heroic stand by the Ukrainian people and the bumbling thus far by the Russians has united Europe and NATO as never before. If Ukraine had been a walkover (as most predicted) who knows how much resolve the West would have shown. But Russia in general and Putin in particular look vulnerable - and that has helped the heretofore reticent to grow a spine. That’s a good thing - and if it lasts bodes well for the future.

It's very good, and there has been a lot of positives as you mentioned. The bravery of the Ukrainian leadership and people is truely inspiring.  Germany's flip is an enormous positive.  But the worry is Putin could lash out and indiscriminately carpet bomb or what have you.  Remember what happened in Grozny and Allepo. 

[NCMUFan]

Strategy of the USA revolutionary war.
Survive to fight another day.

[Billy Hoyle]

It's very good, and there has been a lot of positives as you mentioned. The bravery of the Ukrainian leadership and people is truely inspiring.  Germany's flip is an enormous positive.  But the worry is Putin could lash out and indiscriminately carpet bomb or what have you.  Remember what happened in Grozny and Allepo.

One thing Clinton and Maddow were discussing last night was recognition by some top Russian military brass that Putin is mentally unstable, maybe more than usual. Clinton believes some of his top lieutenants will step in as the invasion continues to go sour. The longer it takes to take Kyiv the more likely that scenario is to happen.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

This conflict is personality driven, not institution driven.   NATO is likely to emerge stronger and more united.   Russian military might is not what our worst case scenario led us to believe.
Russia will be isolated until Putin is gone.
Nuclear arsenal in the hands of a madman is the issue.   What will Russian generals do if Putin orders armageddon?

My guess is there will be a new cold war with Russia until Putin is gone. If his successor does a little repenting and can somehow come to some mutually acceptable resolution of the Ukraine situation, the west will start backing off the sanctions. The more Russia moderates, the more sanctions will be lifted. Or else Russia goes full China. That would be a real wild card.

[NCMUFan]

Poles to supply MIG-29s to Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWoIPrQfth4

[pbiflyer]

One thing Clinton and Maddow were discussing last night was recognition by some top Russian military brass that Putin is mentally unstable, maybe more than usual. Clinton believes some of his top lieutenants will step in as the invasion continues to go sour. The longer it takes to take Kyiv the more likely that scenario is to happen.

Maybe that’s already happening.

Zelensky assassination plot foiled, Ukrainian authorities say

https://www.axios.com/zelensky-assassination-plot-foiled-7bea049b-2308-4801-b75a-93104c17b82b.html

Ukrainian authorities had been tipped off about the plot by members of Russia's Federal Security Service who do not support the war, he added.