Explosions in Kiev

[MU82]

In his most recent speech, Mad King Putin made a veiled threat about using nukes if any country tries to get in his way to rule over Ukraine.

“As for military affairs, even after the dissolution of the USSR and losing a considerable part of its capabilities, today’s Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states. Moreover, it has a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons. In this context, there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country.”

[Galway Eagle]

In his most recent speech, Mad King Putin made a veiled threat about using nukes if any country tries to get in his way to rule over Ukraine.

“As for military affairs, even after the dissolution of the USSR and losing a considerable part of its capabilities, today’s Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states. Moreover, it has a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons. In this context, there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country.”

He must know that any attack at NATO or even SEATO (and Japan) would spark a global war.

[forgetful]

Is it possible to get Germany in particular out of their reliance on Russian oil?  It sounds like that's the main problem with SWIFT being enacted.  I mean can you give the Germans an ultimatum of sorts on this issue?

Out of curiosity, would you support similar sanctions against any nation that according to the UN illegally invades a sovereign nation...e.g. removal from swift.

I agree in that I abhor what is going on, but there is at least room for a philosophical question on who sanctions get applied to, and how severe.

[jesmu84]

Out of curiosity, would you support similar sanctions against any nation that according to the UN illegally invades a sovereign nation...e.g. removal from swift.

I agree in that I abhor what is going on, but there is at least room for a philosophical question on who sanctions get applied to, and how severe.

Good point.

Or what about just attacking a sovereign nation without invasion?

[jesmu84]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1497259172349546499?t=uAwZ_KgsN98xeup4pCghpw&s=19

Weird

[jficke13]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1497259172349546499?t=uAwZ_KgsN98xeup4pCghpw&s=19

Weird

Thought I recognized her from the earlier kerfuffle over her baggage when she got hired. The whole "moonlights on RT" thing didn't come up then. I don't know that I would classify it as "weird," but it's pretty clear where her loyalties and incentives lie on international issues.

Whether that has any bearing on her ability to discharge her duties as an assistant city attorney... well... I'll withhold sharing my opinion on the matter but I suspect people could infer my position.

[Billy Hoyle]

I saw a headline that made me chuckle

Russians Take Chernobyl

Colonel Ivanovich:
Ok boys we will sleep here tonight That big concrete dome over there should hold all of us Wasn’t it nice of the locals to offer it to us They all spoke of this place in glowing terms

I'm fascinated with Chernobyl, having read books about it and the HBO series was one of the best I've ever seen on TV. I would love to visit the Exclusion Zone someday. I know there are plenty of apartments the Russian military can bunk in to make sure they stay warm during the winter. Maybe they can take in some of the dogs running around and finally get that ferris wheel running.

Though seriously, it appears taking Chernobyl is strategic:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/russia-want-take-chernobyl-rcna17615

Chernobyl is less than 10 miles from Ukraine's border with Belarus, a Russian ally where Moscow has been massing troops in preparation for its attack. From there, it's a relatively straight shot of about 80 miles south to Kyiv.

The route from Belarus to Kyiv through Chernobyl might be particularly appealing to Russian military planners because it would allow them to cross the Dnieper River in Belarus, avoiding a potentially hazardous crossing of the major river, which bisects Ukraine, behind enemy lines.

"They want it because they want to take control of the whole effing country," said Evelyn Farkas, who was deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia in the Obama administration. "They want to surround the capital."

[forgetful]

I'm fascinated with Chernobyl, having read books about it and the HBO series was one of the best I've ever seen on TV. I would love to visit the Exclusion Zone someday. I know there are plenty of apartments the Russian military can bunk in to make sure they stay warm during the winter. Maybe they can take in some of the dogs running around and finally get that ferris wheel running.

Though seriously, it appears taking Chernobyl is strategic:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/russia-want-take-chernobyl-rcna17615

Chernobyl is less than 10 miles from Ukraine's border with Belarus, a Russian ally where Moscow has been massing troops in preparation for its attack. From there, it's a relatively straight shot of about 80 miles south to Kyiv.

The route from Belarus to Kyiv through Chernobyl might be particularly appealing to Russian military planners because it would allow them to cross the Dnieper River in Belarus, avoiding a potentially hazardous crossing of the major river, which bisects Ukraine, behind enemy lines.

"They want it because they want to take control of the whole effing country," said Evelyn Farkas, who was deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia in the Obama administration. "They want to surround the capital."

I think part of it is a strategic staging ground. Ukraine can't try to target troops there with heavy artillery due to risks to all of Europe.

So whoever controls that site can stage any troops, equipment or attacks from there without risk of major retaliation.

[HouWarrior]

I know there are plenty of apartments the Russian military can bunk in to make sure they stay warm during the winter.

Though seriously,

Sorry but nothing in my post was
Seriously, rather …
That the locals offered overnight lodging in the concrete  dome to the Russians and spoke of it “glowingly “ was supposed to be seen as funny
Have you ever read the Onion?

[Billy Hoyle]

Sorry but nothing in my post was
Seriously, rather …
That the locals offered overnight lodging in the concrete  dome to the Russians and spoke of it “glowingly “ was supposed to be seen as funny
Have you ever read the Onion?

I know it wasn't, nor was my comment about the available housing (these luxury accommodations unoccupied since 1986), the radioactive dogs, etc.

But, I just also wanted to add in why they would be interested in taking Chernobyl and the Exclusion Zone.

[Hards Alumni]

Okay, here comes a very hot take.

This has not gone as Putin had hoped.  The world is generally united against his invasion, Russia troop casualties apparently (unverified sources) number already in the low thousands, there is little support in Russia for the war as well.  I think if they don't wrap this up quickly, Russia is going to turn on Mr. Putin. 

Is this the last gasp of Putin?  Could this be the end of his regime?

Or I'm just too deep in Western media right now and too optimistic.  I could probably use another perspective.

[Jockey]

Okay, here comes a very hot take.

This has not gone as Putin had hoped.  The world is generally united against his invasion, Russia troop casualties apparently (unverified sources) number already in the low thousands, there is little support in Russia for the war as well.  I think if they don't wrap this up quickly, Russia is going to turn on Mr. Putin. 

Is this the last gasp of Putin?  Could this be the end of his regime?

Or I'm just too deep in Western media right now and too optimistic.  I could probably use another perspective.

We can only hope the military leaders turn on him. I see no other route to getting rid of him.

[Jockey]

Thought I recognized her from the earlier kerfuffle over her baggage when she got hired. The whole "moonlights on RT" thing didn't come up then. I don't know that I would classify it as "weird," but it's pretty clear where her loyalties and incentives lie on international issues.

Whether that has any bearing on her ability to discharge her duties as an assistant city attorney... well... I'll withhold sharing my opinion on the matter but I suspect people could infer my position.

I think people who do this sort of thing are usually compromised in some way by Russian intelligence.

[Hards Alumni]

I think people who do this sort of thing are usually compromised in some way by Russian intelligence.

People always think this, but money talks much louder.

[Jockey]

People always think this, but money talks much louder.

I agree. But once you take the money, you are compromised. They own your future.

[MuggsyB]

Okay, here comes a very hot take.

This has not gone as Putin had hoped.  The world is generally united against his invasion, Russia troop casualties apparently (unverified sources) number already in the low thousands, there is little support in Russia for the war as well.  I think if they don't wrap this up quickly, Russia is going to turn on Mr. Putin. 

Is this the last gasp of Putin?  Could this be the end of his regime?

Or I'm just too deep in Western media right now and too optimistic.  I could probably use another perspective.

Do we have the time to send more defense air weaponry (Stingers/Javelins) to Ukrainian resistance  fighters?   I'm just afraid it's too late.  The Russisn forces are in Kiev.  It's going to be a messy weekend.   We need to provide a no fly zone.  That would help immensely.
 

Putin is a fking madman.  His latest meltdown which I just heard translated on the radio, "lecturing" the Ukrainians, is really something.  This is reminiscent of Hitler attacking Poland in 1939. It is not inconceivable that his propaganda campaign will lead to a coup.  People see and know what's going on in real-time.

[Hards Alumni]

Do we have the time to send more defense air weaponry (Stingers/Javelins) to Ukrainian resistance  fighters?   I'm just afraid it's too late.  The Russisn forces are in Kiev.  It's going to be a messy weekend.   We need to provide a no fly zone.  That would help immensely.
 

Putin is a fking madman.  His latest meltdown which I just heard translated on the radio, "lecturing" the Ukrainians, is really something.  This is reminiscent of Hitler attacking Poland in 1939. It is not inconceivable that his propaganda campaign will lead to a coup.  People see and know what's going on in real-time.

It's way too late to send anything.  We won't provide a no fly zone because we can't enforce it without direct military conflight.  That would 100% be a war action.

[Galway Eagle]

Do we have the time to send more defense air weaponry (Stingers/Javelins) to Ukrainian resistance  fighters?   I'm just afraid it's too late.  The Russisn forces are in Kiev.  It's going to be a messy weekend.   We need to provide a no fly zone.  That would help immensely.
 

Putin is a fking madman.  His latest meltdown which I just heard translated on the radio, "lecturing" the Ukrainians, is really something.  This is reminiscent of Hitler attacking Poland in 1939. It is not inconceivable that his propaganda campaign will lead to a coup.  People see and know what's going on in real-time.

Just heard it. Asking the military to overthrow the government while attacking the military is some special type of crazy. Not to mention blaming them for the invasion and calling a Jewish guy a nazi.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Okay, here comes a very hot take.

This has not gone as Putin had hoped.  The world is generally united against his invasion, Russia troop casualties apparently (unverified sources) number already in the low thousands, there is little support in Russia for the war as well.  I think if they don't wrap this up quickly, Russia is going to turn on Mr. Putin. 

Is this the last gasp of Putin?  Could this be the end of his regime?

Or I'm just too deep in Western media right now and too optimistic.  I could probably use another perspective.

Check on this again in a week or more. I think Putin has a lot of Stalin in him.

[jficke13]

I am curious what the intersection of "Ukranian will to fight" and "Russian will to endure insurgency" is going to be. Iran supplied our enemies in the middle east with sufficient materiel to eventually grind down our will to endure. I can't imagine motivated state-level actors in the west couldn't supply an insurgency in Ukraine if the Ukranians were willing to suffer the (likely) scorched earth retaliation of the Russians to do so.

So long as Russia is a nuclear-armed state, it has no peer or near-peer enemies that could conceivably topple Putin from power based on a kinetic war. The only thing that Putin has to fear is internal strife or a coup, and if Ukranians make this conquest one that is bloody enough... well...

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Okay, here comes a very hot take.

This has not gone as Putin had hoped.  The world is generally united against his invasion, Russia troop casualties apparently (unverified sources) number already in the low thousands, there is little support in Russia for the war as well.  I think if they don't wrap this up quickly, Russia is going to turn on Mr. Putin. 

Is this the last gasp of Putin?  Could this be the end of his regime?

Or I'm just too deep in Western media right now and too optimistic.  I could probably use another perspective.

Hards,
Doing a bunch of reading this afternoon.
* Military analytes universally say there is no way they have accomplished any of their military goals and are way behind their target schedule.  They seem to think their supply lines are not performing.
* No shock and awe.  Compared US day 1 & 2 in Iraq and Ukraine is their neighboring country and they've only launched less than 3% of what the US launched and we were on the other side of the world.
* Russia does not control the sky yet.  Ukraine even attacked a Russian airfield today and knocked out a bunch of planes on the ground.
* He just threated attacking Finland & Sweden today if the decide to join NATO.
* I also see the Russians are saying "retaliation" is coming for the sanctions.
* I'm starting to lean more towards we have to fight them sooner or later and I really hate the thought of that.  Costs will be lower now and will deter dictators in the future which is why I'm thinking no fly zone and send more anti-aircraft missiles.  Ukrainians actually fight unlike the Afghans.

And I keep seeing the oligarchs are pissed and they got money to spend before it's worthless........
I don't want to escalate, but there is seriously something wrong with Putin.  The madness of King George?

And honestly, Biden may just be waiting for Putin to make the first "retaliation" for sanctions because Americans love "you can't do that to us, we'll show you".

[forgetful]

Hards,
Doing a bunch of reading this afternoon.
1. Military analytes universally say there is no way they have accomplished any of their military goals and are way behind their target schedule.  They seem to think their supply lines are not performing.
2. No shock and awe.  Compared US day 1 & 2 in Iraq and Ukraine is their neighboring country and they've only launched less than 3% of what the US launched and we were on the other side of the world.
3. Russia does not control the sky yet.  Ukraine even attacked a Russian airfield today and knocked out a bunch of planes on the ground.
4. I'm starting to lean more towards we have to fight them sooner or later and I really hate the thought of that.  Costs will be lower now and will deter dictators in the future which is why I'm thinking no fly zone and send more anti-aircraft missiles.  Ukrainians actually fight unlike the Afghans.

And I keep seeing the oligarchs are pissed and they got money to spend before it's worthless........
I don't want to escalate, but there is seriously something wrong with Putin.  The madness of King George?

And honestly, Biden may just be waiting for Putin to make the first "retaliation" for sanctions because Americans love "you can't do that to us, we'll show you".

While all of this may be correct, and have read similar things, I'm trying to filter some of this through the lens of media propaganda.

I think some of the above is both due to assumption based errors, and some propaganda.

On 1 and 2. I think western experts are assuming that Putin wanted to do a shock and awe campaign like we did in Iraq/Afghanistan. I do not think that is a correct assumption. Russia's initial attacks seem to clearly focus on infrastructure, and as much as possible avoid direct attacks on barracks, soldiers, and civilians. A shock and awe campaign like we have used would have had a lot of causualties, which I honestly think was being avoided.

What they have still accomplished is surrounding Kyiv, and might be able to take every major city within a week, without bombing soldiers and civilian areas to an extreme.

I think this is because they do not want to occupy it in the end, but have a puppet government. It is more likely that the puppet government is accepted if there were not mass casualties (I'm very likely being naive and overly optimistic in terms of long range casualties).

On 3. They have secured the entire air. The attack on the airfield appears to be from a missile, not any air power.

On 4, I hope that is wrong. An outright war with Russia would be catastrophic.

From Hards' post, I think the casualty reports are likely propaganda. We will not know accurate casualties from either side...probably ever.

I'm hoping that what we have seen so far is because Putin is, strangely enough, using what he sees as a measured response (clearly he is nuts). I hope that is the case, because if this is actually not going as planned, I fear for Ukraine more, because Putin will resort to indiscriminate bombing, and 100's of thousands of innocent people will likely die.

[MUeng]

Those are good bullet points MUFan. It does not appear the advance is going as quickly as they desired. This whole fiasco sheds light on the fact that Russia really is a third world country that happens to have nukes and a ton of oil and gas. No tech, no innovation hub, nothing like the developed world. I guess we all just assumed this Russian military might but really it's Putin's last chance to play war while he's still youngish? What a whack job.

[Hards Alumni]

Those are good bullet points MUFan. It does not appear the advance is going as quickly as they desired. This whole fiasco sheds light on the fact that Russia really is a third world country that happens to have nukes and a ton of oil and gas. No tech, no innovation hub, nothing like the developed world. I guess we all just assumed this Russian military might but really it's Putin's last chance to play war while he's still youngish? What a whack job.

Which is amazing.  The amount of brain drain that Russian society has endured since the height of the USSR is devastating.

No one wants to live in a gangster state, and if you have enough money and you are smart enough, you leave Russia the day you can.

[Pakuni]

Sports world starting to punish Russia.

F1 cancels the Russian Grand Prix.
https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/33367628/russian-grand-prix-cancelled-ukraine-invasion

UEFA moving Champions League Final from St. Petersburg to Paris.
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11945/12551034/champions-league-final-moved-to-paris-from-st-petersburg-after-russian-invasion-of-ukraine 

Man United cancels sponsorship deal with Aeroflot
https://www.si.com/soccer/2022/02/25/manchester-united-sponsorship-rights-russian-aeroflot

International Ski Federation cancels five upcoming World Cup events in Russia
https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/skiing-japan-pulls-out-russia-ski-cross-world-cup-event-2022-02-25/

FC Schalke 04 removing logo of its main sponsor, the Russian oil company Gazprom,from their kits.
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/24/1082794434/russia-gazprom-logo-soccer