2024 NFL Offseason and Draft Thread

[Lennys Tap]

If they feel it is a significant enough upgrade successful teams draft the quarterback and work out the rest.

Yeah, the Pats drafted the QB - in the 6th round. And the 49ers with the final pick in the draft to avoid the bidding war (lol) that would have ensued for Purdy as a free agent. The Chiefs did take Mahomes in round 1, but only when he fell to them as the #3 QB in the draft. Pack did OK catching the free falling Aaron Rogers late in round 1, too.

Teams who fell in love with a guy and moved up to get him haven’t been right very often. So…

Caleb Williams + maybe a 2nd rounder + a rookie QB contract vs say Justin Fields + Marvin Harrison + a 2nd rounder this year, a 1st and 2nd next year, a 1st in 26 and a player (like DJ Moore) + a potentially difficult decision on Field’s contract down the road.
Or trading down for extra assets, still trading Fields and drafting a different QB.

If Williams is your clear choice, again, fine. But if there’s doubt, plan B, C or some variation would be (imo) a much better one than plan A.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Well yeah. That's what I mean by a significant enough upgrade.  And I don't know if Williams is all that or not - that's up for the Bears to decide. But I do know that Fields is pretty mediocre. And yes, if they can find someone in later rounds that turns out to be decent, that's even better.  But there is usually a reason why late round draft picks are drafted late.

[WhiteTrash]

Yeah, the Pats drafted the QB - in the 6th round. And the 49ers with the final pick in the draft to avoid the bidding war (lol) that would have ensued for Purdy as a free agent. The Chiefs did take Mahomes in round 1, but only when he fell to them as the #3 QB in the draft. Pack did OK catching the free falling Aaron Rogers late in round 1, too.

Teams who fell in love with a guy and moved up to get him haven’t been right very often. So…

Caleb Williams + maybe a 2nd rounder + a rookie QB contract vs say Justin Fields + Marvin Harrison + a 2nd rounder this year, a 1st and 2nd next year, a 1st in 26 and a player (like DJ Moore) + a potentially difficult decision on Field’s contract down the road.
Or trading down for extra assets, still trading Fields and drafting a different QB.

If Williams is your clear choice, again, fine. But if there’s doubt, plan B, C or some variation would be (imo) a much better one than plan A.

It is funny, or maybe ironic, that in the past few months I've see the 49ers as a model and argument for trading out of #1 and building a great team around a serviceable QB, while right after the Super Bowl pointing to the 49ers as an example of why a great QB is more important than a great overall team. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

It is funny, or maybe ironic, that in the past few months I've see the 49ers as a model and argument for trading out of #1 and building a great team around a serviceable QB, while right after the Super Bowl pointing to the 49ers as an example of why a great QB is more important than a great overall team. 

No one said “a great QB is more important than a great overall team.”  People were saying that Purdy wasn’t very good.

If they had QBs better than Jimmy G and Brock Purdy, they likely win both of those Super Bowls.

[Pakuni]

It is funny, or maybe ironic, that in the past few months I've see the 49ers as a model and argument for trading out of #1 and building a great team around a serviceable QB, while right after the Super Bowl pointing to the 49ers as an example of why a great QB is more important than a great overall team.

It's good time for a reminder that the 49ers traded three first-round picks and a third-round pick to move up for a quarterback.
Seems like even they believe the "build a great team around a mediocre QB" model doesn't work.

[WhiteTrash]

No one said “a great QB is more important than a great overall team.”  People were saying that Purdy wasn’t very good.

If they had QBs better than Jimmy G and Brock Purdy, they likely win both of those Super Bowls.

I wasn't referring to people here making that argument. It has been advanced plenty often on Bears' boards.

I pointed this out as how ironic it is that the exact same team is people's argument for and against trading the pick. I wasn't picking a side.

Personally, I am a hard lean to moving off Fields.

[Jockey]

It's good time for a reminder that the 49ers traded three first-round picks and a third-round pick to move up for a quarterback.
Seems like even they believe the "build a great team around a mediocre QB" model doesn't work.

Chasing unicorns is almost always bad policy.

[MUBurrow]

Chasing unicorns is almost always bad policy.

Sorry, are you saying that the unicorn chasing is the 49ers trading all those picks hunting a QB unicorn, or teams trying to follow the model of surrounding a mediocre QB with such overwhelming talent they can't help but win a Super Bowl?  To me, modeling your team on the Super Bowl blueprint of the Dilfer Ravens, Brad Johnson Bucs, or even Flacco Ravens is the real unicorn.  You're better off taking swings at getting a T-8 or so QB than investing in trying to make it work with middle of the road guys.

[Jockey]

Sorry, are you saying that the unicorn chasing is the 49ers trading all those picks hunting a QB unicorn, or teams trying to follow the model of surrounding a mediocre QB with such overwhelming talent they can't help but win a Super Bowl?  To me, modeling your team on the Super Bowl blueprint of the Dilfer Ravens, Brad Johnson Bucs, or even Flacco Ravens is the real unicorn.  You're better off taking swings at getting a T-8 or so QB than investing in trying to make it work with middle of the road guys.

The 49ers model. Or the Jets. Or the Bears with Trubisky where they didn’t even entertain thought of a Mahomes. I would venture that the vast majority of early QB Ppicks never become great players.

[Pakuni]

Chasing unicorns is almost always bad policy.

No, it's not.
Look back at the last, say, 30 years of NFL history. Find me a team that consistently earned playoff bids and contended for championships without a top 10 quarterback.

As Burrow notes, the unicorns are the one-hit wonders that win without an elite QB.
And look at what happened to those teams shortly thereafter.
2000 Ravens ... missed playoffs four of the next seven seasons, won one playoff game in that stretch.
2002 Bucs ... missed playoffs 15 of the next 17 seasons, winning zero playoff games until Tom Brady arrived.
2012 Ravens .... missed playoffs four of the next five seasons.

Having a great QB is no guarantee of winning Super Bowls, but it makes it much more likely and gives you way more margin for error everywhere else on the roster.

[Pakuni]

The 49ers model. Or the Jets. Or the Bears with Trubisky where they didn’t even entertain thought of a Mahomes. I would venture that the vast majority of early QB Ppicks never become great players.

Unless you're drafting an O-lineman, the majority of early picks at any position never become great players.
In fact, the success rate for receivers and most defensive players drafted early is worse than it is for QBs.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/assessing-first-round-hit-rate-at-every-nfl-position/

[WhiteTrash]

The 49ers model. Or the Jets. Or the Bears with Trubisky where they didn’t even entertain thought of a Mahomes. I would venture that the vast majority of early QB Ppicks never become great players.

I totally get where you are coming from. I think you are spot on. Player and specifically QB evaluation are difficult and leads to low hit rates. But I'm not sure GM's egos or fan reactions would allow a team to pass on QBs because they are "hard to evaluate".

I understand the thought that QBs are over valued in the draft, but are they really? It is the most important position on the team, so I think it is logical draft them high.

Also, while I agree most early QB picks never become great players, I believe 1st rounders hit at a higher rate. (Edit: see Pakuni post above)

[Pakuni]

RIP Chris Mortensen

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39647922/award-winning-nfl-reporter-chris-mortensen-dies-age-72

[Lennys Tap]

Having a great QB is no guarantee of winning Super Bowls, but it makes it much more likely and gives you way more margin for error everywhere else on the roster.

Who doesn’t want a great QB? Everybody wants a great QB. But finding one is the hard part. The 1st QB taken in the last 14 drafts has won zero Super Bowls. The 1st QBs taken in the last 25 have won 3 - Stafford 1, Eli Manning 2. And even though they were picked #1, were Eli or Stafford ever top 5 NFL QBs.

Bottom line, there is so much volatility involved in finding a QB and picking the 1st off the board hasn’t exactly been the the key to Super Bowl titles the last quarter century.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Who doesn’t want a great QB? Everybody wants a great QB. But finding one is the hard part. The 1st QB taken in the last 14 drafts has won zero Super Bowls. The 1st QBs taken in the last 25 have won 3 - Stafford 1, Eli Manning 2. And even though they were picked #1, were Eli or Stafford ever top 5 NFL QBs.

Bottom line, there is so much volatility involved in finding a QB and picking the 1st off the board hasn’t exactly been the the key to Super Bowl titles the last quarter century.

That’s mostly because there are a lot of bad organizations drafting those QBs. Bad organizations aren’t winning with Justin Fields either.

[Lennys Tap]

That’s mostly because there are a lot of bad organizations drafting those QBs. Bad organizations aren’t winning with Justin Fields either.

I wouldn’t say mostly, but that is part of it. But an awful lot of good organizations passed an awful lot of times on Tom Brady, let Aaron Rodgers fall, etc., etc., etc. It’s just a hell of a lot easier to project an OT than it is a QB.

[WhiteTrash]

Who doesn’t want a great QB? Everybody wants a great QB. But finding one is the hard part. The 1st QB taken in the last 14 drafts has won zero Super Bowls. The 1st QBs taken in the last 25 have won 3 - Stafford 1, Eli Manning 2. And even though they were picked #1, were Eli or Stafford ever top 5 NFL QBs.

Bottom line, there is so much volatility involved in finding a QB and picking the 1st off the board hasn’t exactly been the the key to Super Bowl titles the last quarter century.

Your facts are spot on. I'm not sure what the point is. It has been established the hit rate for QB in the first round is better than any other round. The hit rate for top 5 is better than any other 10 pick window.

Is picking a QB 3-5 better? Should teams not pick QBs in the first round? Or is this just a cautionary tale for the Bears, Commanders and Pats to not expect a SB even if taking a QB is the correct pick?

I for one, don't expect a QB taken by the Bears to guaranty a SB. Hell, AR was the best QB in the game for 10-12 years and won only 1 SB, but I think he was the right pick for GB and gave them the best chance to win a SB every year.

I've seen enough of Fields (about 40 games) to decide he is not the guy due to many reasons including injuries, which will become a bigger issue for him as he gets older. 

[Uncle Rico]

Mike Evans back to Tampa. 

[Herman Cain]

Bucs going to re-sign Mike Evans.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39651873/bucs-mike-evans-agree-2-year-52m-contract-agent-says

I would guess this means Evans was comfortable Bucs will also re-sign Baker Mayfield

[JWags85]

Good for Evans, good for the Bucs, good for the Tampa Bay community.

Dude had a really nice bounce-back year.  I can't believe he's only 30, feel like he's been around forever.

[Uncle Rico]

Good for Evans, good for the Bucs, good for the Tampa Bay community.

Dude had a really nice bounce-back year.  I can't believe he's only 30, feel like he's been around forever.

Thought for sure he’d go to Jacksonville

[Jockey]

Good for Evans, good for the Bucs, good for the Tampa Bay community.

Dude had a really nice bounce-back year.  I can't believe he's only 30, feel like he's been around forever.

I think he found out that there wasn't a better market out there for a 30 year old. But he got a nice payday. He's never in the conversation for top NFL receivers, but he just goes out and is quietly great every single year.

[Uncle Rico]

Broncos cutting Russell Wilson.  Here’s hoping your favorite team doesn’t sign him

[WhiteTrash]

Broncos cutting Russell Wilson.  Here’s hoping your favorite team doesn’t sign him

True, but he was pretty solid last year. Similar to Mayfield and much better than Fields. For that salary though, the Broncos were expecting much more. He could be a great gap solution. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

He stinks.