2024 NFL Offseason and Draft Thread

[Hards Alumni]

Jockey

You don’t have to give Fields the big guaranteed contract for 2 more years. If he doesn’t get it done next year, use one of your 3 1st rounders in 2025 to take a QB. If you’re still on the fence after next year, franchise him. It’s not like this year is their only chance to get a QB.

Of course, if they think Caleb Williams is head and shoulders above the field and possibly a “generational” talent, you take him. But if not,  those extra high draft choices can help build a really solid team around whoever the QB is. I haven’t seen greatness in Williams but I confess a) I haven’t seen him that much and b) I’m no expert.

Correct take.  I also think they should trade the pick for as much as they can get and load up the rest of their team.

I am not a Bears fan.

[Pakuni]

Correct take.  I also think they should trade the pick for as much as they can get and load up the rest of their team.

I am not a Bears fan.

The problem with this is it's really hard to build a consistent contender in the NFL without a top-tier QB. It's impossible to do one with a subpar one.
Surrounding Fields with better players won't make him a top-tier QB.
The recipe you guys are suggesting is going to get you the Mark Sanchez Jets.

[jesmu84]

The problem with this is it's really hard to build a consistent contender in the NFL without a top-tier QB. It's impossible to do one with a subpar one.
Surrounding Fields with better players won't make him a top-tier QB.
The recipe you guys are suggesting is going to get you the Mark Sanchez Jets.

https://twitter.com/gregolsen88/status/1734992188398862557?t=jfMBQMmLlzTXqq_ObJAM9w&s=19

No knock on Fields at all. Let’s assume the top QB in draft and Fields are exactly the same now and in the future. The tie breaker goes to starting the clock over before having to pay the QB $50m. Once QB gets paid, he better be able to cover up the holes. Most can’t. The elite can.

You can win a championship with a stacked team and a decent QB on a rookie contract. (Russell Wilson, Brock Purdy, etc).

But to be at the top for the long term, you'll need to reset the QB every few years with another rookie and surround them with high priced stars OR have a franchise top 5 QB just because of the money required.

IMO, Chicago would be silly to give Fields anything beyond his rookie contract because he isn't (and likely will never) be a top 5 QB. Chicago could get close in Fields' 4th year if they load up on high rookie picks and top FA for next season.

But then they'll have to draft a new QB next year anyway.

If you like Caleb more than potential 2025 QBs, take Caleb now.

[Pakuni]

https://twitter.com/gregolsen88/status/1734992188398862557?t=jfMBQMmLlzTXqq_ObJAM9w&s=19

You can win a championship with a stacked team and a decent QB on a rookie contract. (Russell Wilson, Brock Purdy, etc).

I happen to think Purdy is better than decent, but he hasn't won a championship yet.
And Wilson was a lot better than decent in most of his time in Seattle, and especially when they were contending. I think his weirdness combined with the sharp decline has kind of skewed some memories.
Between 2012 and 2021, he was top 5 in passer rating five times and top 10 four others, and top 5 in QBR three times and top 10 four others. He was easily a top 10 QB, and you could make a case for top 5.

Overall, though, agree with your point.

[Hards Alumni]

The problem with this is it's really hard to build a consistent contender in the NFL without a top-tier QB. It's impossible to do one with a subpar one.
Surrounding Fields with better players won't make him a top-tier QB.
The recipe you guys are suggesting is going to get you the Mark Sanchez Jets.

Sure, I guess.  But there isn't much sense in drafting a QB with the top pick if you aren't sure he is going to be THE guy.  Lots of starters in the NFL haven't been the top pick or even in the top FIVE picks.  Trade back, accumulate draft capital, and hope to hit on a few players.  Rolling out the #1 pick and having him get killed in the media because he has no one around him is the most Bears thing to do.

Look to what successful franchises do.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

If they feel it is a significant enough upgrade, successful teams draft the quarterback and work out the rest.

[jesmu84]

Sure, I guess.  But there isn't much sense in drafting a QB with the top pick if you aren't sure he is going to be THE guy.  Lots of starters in the NFL haven't been the top pick or even in the top FIVE picks.  Trade back, accumulate draft capital, and hope to hit on a few players.  Rolling out the #1 pick and having him get killed in the media because he has no one around him is the most Bears thing to do.

Look to what successful franchises do.

What do successful franchises do?

[Hards Alumni]

What do successful franchises do?

The opposite of what the Bears are doing is a good jumping off point.

[Pakuni]

Zach Wilson is available.
That ballyhooed 2021 QB class is officially a bust. Even the Day 2 picks (Trask, Mond, Mills) are disappointing.

[jesmu84]

The opposite of what the Bears are doing is a good jumping off point.

That's not really an answer.

IMO, "successful" franchises do things many different ways.

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

That's not really an answer.

IMO, "successful" franchises do things many different ways.

“Bears bad” is the extent of a lot of analysis here sometimes

[Uncle Rico]

“Bears bad” is the extent of a lot of analysis here sometimes

Well, they’re amongst the worst run sports franchises across any sport, much less the NFL

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Well, they’re amongst the worst run sports franchises across any sport, much less the NFL

We know!

[Hards Alumni]

That's not really an answer.

IMO, "successful" franchises do things many different ways.

Of course, I was just being glib.

[WhiteTrash]

Yeah, I don't why White Trash keeps coming back to this. His production isn't very good, and his contract is cap friendly next year, but isn't going to be moving forward IF he turns out better once he has a change of scenery.

I would guess a third round pick at best.

I think a 3rd is very high - "based upon his production" (quoted my own post)
If they keep him his value will fall as he gets older, out from rookie contract and a back up QB.
Media people are talking about a 2nd or 3rd round pick for JF. I think this his high point of value.

[MU82]

From The Athletic:

INDIANAPOLIS — It certainly seems Justin Fields’ days in Chicago are waning, with the Bears set to draft a quarterback and move on from their three-year starter.

And when they do part ways, Fields will help the Bears one last time on his way out. The Athletic polled eight team executives and coaches this week to gauge Fields’ trade value, and they all believed the Bears would net a quality asset before ultimately selecting USC’s Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick in April.

The majority opinion is the Bears would corral a second- or third-round pick, but there was some variation in those responses. One executive said he’d be worth a second-rounder or its equivalent value in a package of a third- and fifth-round pick.

Two other executives thought the return would be a second- or third-rounder, depending where the selection is in the round. Another believed it could be a 2025 third-round pick that could become a second-rounder based on certain statistical benchmarks.

The lowest value came from a coach who would only give up a third-round pick. There was also an executive who predicted he’d net a second-rounder but admitted that would be too much for his own team to surrender.

“There’s a reason they’re moving on,” an executive pointed out.

Fields’ critics in this exercise said he still needs to improve his field vision to anticipate his throws, and the 2021 first-rounder’s inconsistent accuracy remains a concern. Fields finished with a career-high 61.4 completion percentage last season, and he’s got 6,674 passing yards, 40 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in his career.

There was one outlier from a coach who thought the Bears could get a first-round pick.

“Supply and demand,” the coach said.

[Jockey]

Interesting that it was a coach who said a 1st rounder.

Just one more piece of evidence that scouts should scout and coaches should coach.

[WhiteTrash]

Interesting that it was a coach who said a 1st rounder.

Just one more piece of evidence that scouts should scout and coaches should coach.

Right? Patriot's HC thought Brady was only worth a 6th round value. 

[Lennys Tap]

The problem with this is it's really hard to build a consistent contender in the NFL without a top-tier QB. It's impossible to do one with a subpar one.
Surrounding Fields with better players won't make him a top-tier QB.
The recipe you guys are suggesting is going to get you the Mark Sanchez Jets.

One more time, trading down (preferably at least twice) to gain a boatload of assets doesn’t mean you’re making anything more than a one year commitment to Fields (if that). All it means it you doubt Caleb Williams as a sure thing top tier QB. Maybe it means you have QBs rated just as high that you can get later in this draft. Maybe it means that with 3 #1s next year you wait until then and give Fields one last chance - all the while building a better team.

Again, if they’re sold that Caleb is the guy, so be it. Either way, a good problem to have.

[HutchwasClutch]

Valdes-Scantling released by KC.  Cap move considering his usual occasional production.

Now considered a likely Jets target of course and bet it happens.

Just so grateful every day we are rid of #12 forever.  Packers can actually operate as an intelligent, prudent football operation again.

[Uncle Rico]

Valdes-Scantling released by KC.  Cap move considering his usual occasional production.

Now considered a likely Jets target of course and bet it happens.

Just so grateful every day we are rid of #12 forever.  Packers can actually operate as an intelligent, prudent football operation again.

Poor Jets fans

[HutchwasClutch]

Poor Jets fans

Agree. They had to have this. 

[Uncle Rico]

Agree. They had to have this.

Next season is going to be a mess for them.  Coach is a lame duck who will let the QB run things.  They’ll tie up the cap in players like MVS and Bakh, though MVS on a smart deal is fine.

I suspect they start hot but fade late

[Herman Cain]

Caleb Williams Draft and Combine Profile. For what it is worth, his pre-draft evaluation is higher than Mr. Fields

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/caleb-williams/32005749-4c17-6897-a516-9754023602e6

[Herman Cain]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/03/02/patrick-mahomes-nfl-world-react-xavier-worthy-40-yard-dash-record