Christian McCaffery

[MU82]

I would be shocked, stunned if either is a top 10 pick.

I am not a draftnik at all. In fact, I hate the bloated, BS-filled, overhyped thing. But I am a Panthers fan and I have been reading a lot about their pick, which is 8th overall.

I would be shocked, stunned if at least one of them ISN'T a top-10 pick. Both might be.

[rocket surgeon]

I wouldn't.   I won't guarantee it, though.   I WOULD be shocked if either is still available when the Lions draft at 21.

If either of them is available for the lions at 21, they are sure to be busts, Ehyn'a? 

[tower912]

If either of them is available for the lions at 21, they are sure to be busts, Ehyn'a? 

[DegenerateDish]

I will guarantee that any GM in this draft that takes a RB in the top 10 will be fired within three years.

[Pakuni]

I would be shocked, stunned if either is a top 10 pick.

Expect to be shocked, stunned.

[DegenerateDish]

Expect to be shocked, stunned.

I understand where everyone is coming from, but it's beyond football stupid to waste a top 10 pick on either.

[tower912]

I realize that this is the current mentality out there.     Advanced analytics, passing game, yadayada.    But mentalities are constantly evolving as the game evolves.   Someone is going to make and win the argument that these two have the potential to be a franchise running back for the next few years.    And that having one of them will give options to OC X or QB X that will give them an advantage.   Just look at what Ezekiel Elliot was able to do for Dak Prescott. 
    Whether or not you or I embrace that philosophy is completely irrelevant.     The siren call of a 1200-1400 yard rusher is very alluring.  Someone is going to pounce, current philosophical zeitgeist be damned. 

[#UnleashSean]

I dont think there is such a thing as a franchise running back anymore. Maybe AP? Running backs are no longer lasting very long in the league, they have a good 2 or 3 years and then they are done. Eddie Lacy, Cj Spiller, Reggie Bush, etc.

[Pakuni]

I understand where everyone is coming from, but it's beyond football stupid to waste a top 10 pick on either.

OK, why? Make a case.

I believe Jacksonsville will (and should) take Fournette 4th.

1. As Dallas showed last year, a young QB's best chance of success comes when he has the support of a quality running game. Same can be said for Cam Newton in 2011, and any other number of QBs who had early success (Roehtlisberger, Matt Ryan, etc.). Blake Bortles may very well end up a bust, but he's never had anything resembling a rushing game to help.

2. That's a franchise in desperate need of an identity. Bortles hasn't given it to him, and maybe won't. Yet another defensive player won't. A guy like Fournette absolutely could.

3. They've invested a ton of assets on defense in the past couple of years, both in draft and free agency. They need to improve the O.

4. Doug Marrone and Tom Coughlin both are big run game guys.

[DegenerateDish]

OK, why? Make a case.

I believe Jacksonsville will (and should) take Fournette 4th.

1. As Dallas showed last year, a young QB's best chance of success comes when he has the support of a quality running game. Same can be said for Cam Newton in 2011, and any other number of QBs who had early success (Roehtlisberger, Matt Ryan, etc.). Blake Bortles may very well end up a bust, but he's never had anything resembling a rushing game to help.

2. That's a franchise in desperate need of an identity. Bortles hasn't given it to him, and maybe won't. Yet another defensive player won't. A guy like Fournette absolutely could.

3. They've invested a ton of assets on defense in the past couple of years, both in draft and free agency. They need to improve the O.

4. Doug Marrone and Tom Coughlin both are big run game guys.

Top 10 2016 NFL Rushing Leaders (draft #)

Elliott 4
Howard 150
Murray 71
Ajayi 149
Bell 48
McCoy 53
Johnson 86
Blount UFA
Freeman 103
Miller 97

The outlier in the group above is excellent...and ran behind the best offensive line in the NFL. The Jaguars offensive line is not.

If the Jags really want Fournette, that's fine. I'll strongly argue there isn't competition for his services in the top 10. They should do the smart thing and explore trade options at 12 (Browns) or early teens to get him, especially for a team looking at OJ Howard (who I believe will be the first offensive player taken).

Also, if you look at Tom Coughlin's draft philosophy, it's that you can never have enough young defensive ends.

[MU82]

I will guarantee that any GM in this draft that takes a RB in the top 10 will be fired within three years.

Well, that's a different prediction from your earlier one, and we'll have to wait years to see if you were right.

We'll only have to wait a few days to see if you're "shocked, stunned" was right.

Regardless, the reason I bumped this was because some were saying that GMs would run from McCaffrey and Fournette because they skipped their bowl games. What actually is gonna happen, though, is that they are running from Jake Butt - who played in his bowl game, got hurt, and lost millions of guaranteed dollars because of it. But hey, he was a great "team player," so congrats!

[DegenerateDish]

Well, that's a different prediction from your earlier one, and we'll have to wait years to see if you were right.

We'll only have to wait a few days to see if you're "shocked, stunned" was right.

Regardless, the reason I bumped this was because some were saying that GMs would run from McCaffrey and Fournette because they skipped their bowl games. What actually is gonna happen, though, is that they are running from Jake Butt - who played in his bowl game, got hurt, and lost millions of guaranteed dollars because of it. But hey, he was a great "team player," so congrats!

Oh I stand by my prediction and my reaction. Not backing down from either.

[MU82]

Oh I stand by my prediction and my reaction. Not backing down from either.

In fairness, I guess you didn't predict that teams drafting in the top 10 would avoid any RB.

All you predicted was that you would be "shocked, stunned."

And so you will be. Great prediction!

[DegenerateDish]

In fairness, I guess you didn't predict that teams drafting in the top 10 would avoid any RB.

All you predicted was that you would be "shocked, stunned."

And so you will be. Great prediction!

Comprehension my friend.

Check back with me in 2020, if said GM is still employed, congrats to you.

[Pakuni]

Top 10 2016 NFL Rushing Leaders (draft #)

Elliott 4
Howard 150
Murray 71
Ajayi 149
Bell 48
McCoy 53
Johnson 86
Blount UFA
Freeman 103
Miller 97

This is a bit misleading, though, since a) few running backs have been taken early in recent years, and b) it's just a one-year snapshot.
If we go all the way back to 2015:
Peterson - 7th
Martin - 31st
Gurley - 10th
McFadden - 4th
Ivory - undrafted
L. Murray - 181st
Freeman - 103rd
Stewart - 13th
Gore - 65th
D. Williams - 27th

So, half of the top 10 were first round picks, including the top four.
For comparison's sake, only four of the top 10 rated QBs in 2015 were first-round picks, and five were last year. I don't think anyone would argue taking a QB in the first round is a fire-able offense, though.
Same for pass rushers ... only half of the top 10 in sacks last year were first-round picks.
Or receivers. Only three of last year's top 10 were first-round picks.
I'd argue that relative to the frequency with which they're drafted early compared with other positions, first-round RBs are doing quite well.

Also, if you look at Tom Coughlin's draft philosophy, it's that you can never have enough young defensive ends.

During his 12 years with the Giants, the team used two first-round picks on DEs, zero second-round picks on DEs, and three third-round picks on DEs. They drafted nine WRs with first-, second-, or third-round picks in that time, so maybe we should look for the Jags to take a wideout.

[DegenerateDish]

This is a bit misleading, though, since a) few running backs have been taken early in recent years, and b) it's just a one-year snapshot.
If we go all the way back to 2015:
Peterson - 7th
Martin - 31st
Gurley - 10th
McFadden - 4th
Ivory - undrafted
L. Murray - 181st
Freeman - 103rd
Stewart - 13th
Gore - 65th
D. Williams - 27th

So, half of the top 10 were first round picks, including the top four.
For comparison's sake, only four of the top 10 rated QBs in 2015 were first-round picks, and five were last year. I don't think anyone would argue taking a QB in the first round is a fire-able offense, though.
Same for pass rushers ... only half of the top 10 in sacks last year were first-round picks.
Or receivers. Only three of last year's top 10 were first-round picks.
I'd argue that relative to the frequency with which they're drafted early compared with other positions, first-round RBs are doing quite well.

During his 12 years with the Giants, the team used two first-round picks on DEs, zero second-round picks on DEs, and three third-round picks on DEs. They drafted nine WRs with first-, second-, or third-round picks in that time, so maybe we should look for the Jags to take a wideout.

It's not misleading in the least, and if anything, you're proving my point.

Let's take a look at those guys that were in the Top 10 in 2015 that were also Top 10 draft picks and see how they did in 2016.

Petersen 132nd in rushing yds in 2016
Gurley 17th in rushing yds in 2016
McFadden 125th in rushing yds in 2016

Don't you find it curious about the few Top 10, let alone 1st round RB's over the last five years?

2012
Trent Richardson (3) out of football
Doug Martin (31)
David Wilson (32) out of football

2013
Zero taken in 1st round

2014
Zero taken in 1st round

2015
Todd Gurley (10)
Melvin Gordon (15)

Both the Rams (would have if not for Goff trade) and Chargers have top 10 picks in 2017 NFL draft

2016
Zeke Elliott (4)

Let's take a snapshot all the way back to 2014 to see the top 10 rushers and their draft positions.

Murray 71
McCoy 53
Bell 48
Lynch 12
Forte 44
Morris 173
Foster UFA
Gore 65
Lacy 61
Forsett 233

So we have 3 years with of data to go off of. Out of 30 rushing leaders, we have 3 that are top ten picks.

The point should be clear as day, you can find RBs anywhere.

Let's finish up on Tom Coughlin and look back at his drafts.

In the 2001 NFL draft, despite finishing 11th against the run the year before, the Jags take...Marcus Stround DL.

2005 Giants D line included Pro Bowler Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora (first team All Pro), and Michael Strahan (second team All Pro). With their first round pick in 2006, the NY Giants selected...DL Mathias Kiwanuka.

Here's Coughlin's quote following the 2006 NFL draft regarding the thought of drafting Kiwanuka: "You can never have too many pass rushers. Again we’ve fortified our defense. It may not have been a specific need as pinpointed prior to, but this is a guy who will pay huge dividends"

Over his last 5 drafts in NY, the top three positions Coughlin drafted: DB's and OL tied at 8, followed by DL at 6.

If I'm the Jags, and I'm staying at 4, hypothetically I'd much rather invest my draft capital in Solomon Thomas at #4 and Dalvin Cook at #35.

[Pakuni]

It's not misleading in the least, and if anything, you're proving my point.

Let's take a look at those guys that were in the Top 10 in 2015 that were also Top 10 draft picks and see how they did in 2016.

Petersen 132nd in rushing yds in 2016
Gurley 17th in rushing yds in 2016
McFadden 125th in rushing yds in 2016

I don't want to go round and round with you here, but come on. One of these guys missed the whole season with injury, the other missed 15 games with injury, and the other was playing behind arguably the league's worst OL and the league's worst QB situation.

Don't you find it curious about the few Top 10, let alone 1st round RB's over the last five years?

No, the position has been devalued. Nobody has argued otherwise. And nobody has argued you can't find quality RBs anywhere in the draft. You're beating down straw men here.
The argument is whether drafting a RB in the top 10 is a stunning and/or fire-able event. I think it's less stunning than drafting, say, an interior OL or inside LB or TE in the top 10, and yet I don't think many would say drafting one of those positions in the top 10 ought to get you fired.

Over his last 5 drafts in NY, the top three positions Coughlin drafted: DB's and OL tied at 8, followed by DL at 6.

This is the case for every team in the NFL, not just the Giants, and thus proves nothing.
DBs, DLs and OLs always are the most selected position, in large part because teams carry so many of them compared to skill players. Most teams carry 4-5 RBs and 5 WRs, compared to and 8-10 OLs, DLs and DBs.
Which position do you think is going to be drafted more frequently? It's less a measure of position value than roster/lineup spots needing filling.

2016 Draft: 52 DBs, 41 OLs, 39 DLs, 36 LBs, 33 WRs, 23 RBs
2015 Draft: 47 DBs, 47 OLs, 39 DLs, 37 LBs, 34 WRs, 23 RBs
2014 Draft: 53 DBs, 45 OLs, 42 DLs, 34 LBs, 33 WRs, 22 RBs
2013 Draft: 52 DBs, 49 DLs, 41 OLs, 28 WRs, 27 LBs, 26 RBs

[forgetful]

1. As Dallas showed last year, a young QB's best chance of success comes when he has the support of a quality running game. Same can be said for Cam Newton in 2011, and any other number of QBs who had early success (Roehtlisberger, Matt Ryan, etc.). Blake Bortles may very well end up a bust, but he's never had anything resembling a rushing game to help.

Your assuming that the success on the part of the QB is due to the RB.  I would contend that the success of both the QB and RB is due to a significantly improved OL. 

There have been few (Barry Sanders is the only one that comes to mind) RB's that can have tremendous success despite a bad OL.  Great RBs look average behind an average OL, and average RBs perform at the pro-bowl level behind a good OL. 

I'd never waste a top 10 pick on an RB, because if you don't address the OL, they will be a flop.

[DegenerateDish]

Top 10 picks are incredibly valuable assets, rewards for failure. If you're a GM in the top 10, more than likely you fall into one of two categories...new GM or on the brink of being fired. The NFL is a hard cap league, and the RB position clearly is devalued for two reasons: 1) Evolution of short passing game, and 2) RBs are easy to find. I didn't think I had to spell it out, it's clearly not a straw man argument, but the future missed opportunity costs in later seasons is what hurts you if you draft a RB early (unless you trade back to pick up assets in the process). Outside of the obvious in hitting on a QB, the best way for a lousy team to get better quick is to hit on drafting studs (on rookie contracts) at premium positions (Seahawks are perfect example). I've argued and shown you can get similar production at a cheaper cost by drafting a RB later. QB position is an outlier, that'll get any GM fired if they miss, but RB or even WR in the top 10 makes a GM very vulnerable. I'm deviating a bit here sure, but Kevin White will be Exhibit A if Ryan Pace is fired this offseason.

Enjoy the draft everybody.

[wadesworld]

Top 10 picks are incredibly valuable assets, rewards for failure. If you're a GM in the top 10, more than likely you fall into one of two categories...new GM or on the brink of being fired. The NFL is a hard cap league, and the RB position clearly is devalued for two reasons: 1) Evolution of short passing game, and 2) RBs are easy to find. I didn't think I had to spell it out, it's clearly not a straw man argument, but the future missed opportunity costs in later seasons is what hurts you if you draft a RB early (unless you trade back to pick up assets in the process). Outside of the obvious in hitting on a QB, the best way for a lousy team to get better quick is to hit on drafting studs (on rookie contracts) at premium positions (Seahawks are perfect example). I've argued and shown you can get similar production at a cheaper cost by drafting a RB later. QB position is an outlier, that'll get any GM fired if they miss, but RB or even WR in the top 10 makes a GM very vulnerable. I'm deviating a bit here sure, but Kevin White will be Exhibit A if Ryan Pace is fired this offseason.

Enjoy the draft everybody.

I think most here understand why the running back position has become less important and a spot you can find a number of sufficient players at without needing to pay a huge price for. I don't think that changes the fact that you'll see a running back drafted in the top 10 this year.

I also don't think a single draft pick ever gets a GM fired. Usually it's quite a few personnel moves that result in a GM's failure.

[DegenerateDish]

I think most here understand why the running back position has become less important and a spot you can find a number of sufficient players at without needing to pay a huge price for. I don't think that changes the fact that you'll see a running back drafted in the top 10 this year.

I also don't think a single draft pick ever gets a GM fired. Usually it's quite a few personnel moves that result in a GM's failure.

That's the point I'm making, the opportunities in the future change when you draft RB in the top 10. It's not the singular pick, it's the future things that occur (overspending on premium positions in free agency, figuring out the QB position, etc).

Look at the Rams (comparable to the Jags). PFF had Rams o-line 27 (Jags 22). Both have suspect QB's, albeit young. Gurley was 17th last year in rushing. Rams greatly overpaid for Goff last year. Where are they at as an organization now?

[MU82]

Comprehension my friend.

Check back with me in 2020, if said GM is still employed, congrats to you.

I am predicting nothing. I want no congratulations on this subject, nor do I expect any. I don't know any GMs, and their employment situation is not something I spend much time contemplating. Nice guy that I am, I prefer that people not lose their jobs, regardless of their field of work.

All I'm saying is that the vast majority of draft predictors expect Fournette, McCaffrey or both to be top-10 picks. Kiper just moved McCaffrey ahead of Fournette. More and more mock drafts have Fournette going at No. 4 to Jacksonville, and then the Panthers taking McCaffrey at No. 8. ESPN just quoted a GM saying there is no way Fournette will go after No. 10. I don't even like the draft, but I do like the Panthers, so I read the articles written about them, and those articles include the above references.

You said you'd be shocked if a RB went in the top-10; several others (including me) responded by telling you to be prepared to be shocked.

You then brought in your guarantee of doom to any GM who drafts a RB high. So if 2 GMs lose their jobs by 2020, congrats to you!

[DegenerateDish]

I am predicting nothing. I want no congratulations on this subject, nor do I expect any. I don't know any GMs, and their employment situation is not something I spend much time contemplating. Nice guy that I am, I prefer that people not lose their jobs, regardless of their field of work.

All I'm saying is that the vast majority of draft predictors expect Fournette, McCaffrey or both to be top-10 picks. Kiper just moved McCaffrey ahead of Fournette. More and more mock drafts have Fournette going at No. 4 to Jacksonville, and then the Panthers taking McCaffrey at No. 8. ESPN just quoted a GM saying there is no way Fournette will go after No. 10. I don't even like the draft, but I do like the Panthers, so I read the articles written about them, and those articles include the above references.

You said you'd be shocked if a RB went in the top-10; several others (including me) responded by telling you to be prepared to be shocked.

You then brought in your guarantee of doom to any GM who drafts a RB high. So if 2 GMs lose their jobs by 2020, congrats to you!

Cool dude.

[MUBurrow]

For what little its worth, regardless of the team that selects them, Fournette would be expected to get quite a few more carries than McCaffrey, wouldn't he? From what I've read, the intrigue on McCaffrey is using him in the slot and his receiving skills out of the backfield rather than as a runner. To the extent McCaffrey has been rising on draft boards, its primarily due to teams' interest in what he can do from a scheme perspective, and he therefore wouldn't be as useful a data point on the overall value of the RB position discussion.

[MU82]

For what little its worth, regardless of the team that selects them, Fournette would be expected to get quite a few more carries than McCaffrey, wouldn't he? From what I've read, the intrigue on McCaffrey is using him in the slot and his receiving skills out of the backfield rather than as a runner. To the extent McCaffrey has been rising on draft boards, its primarily due to teams' interest in what he can do from a scheme perspective, and he therefore wouldn't be as useful a data point on the overall value of the RB position discussion.

This is my understanding as well.

One reason McCaffrey is being forecast to go to the Panthers by many is that they have a need for help in the backfield for somebody to complement Jonathan Stewart, at the slot receiver position and for punt/kickoff return men. McCaffrey is seen as addressing all of those needs with one pick, and I think there is hope that, in time, he could even develop into a feature back.

I am not predicting he'll be a star or even any good at any of the above. I'm just discussing what the Panthers' supposed interest in him is.