COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Could it have been a false positive with those 5?

Or what was happening in Korea.  Sounds almost identical.  In either case so far re-infection hasn’t been the explanation. 

[mu03eng]

Extremely unlikely that those sailors tested positive a second time as a result of a second infectious instance. Much more likely to be two false negatives or one false positive. They are likely still shedding detectable viral load but not at a threshold that is infectious

[GooooMarquette]

Honest question:  did you know what he meant?  Because I'm amazed at the number of people who hear him say things -- admittedly often very inarticulately -- and then latch onto the worst possible interpretation.  But I've become resigned to it.

Of course I know what he meant. He meant if we didn’t do any testing there would be no reported cases that he considered positive, even though he might have had tens of thousands of deaths. It’s all about the optics with him.

Do you think I got it wrong? Can you think of any positive way to interpret what he said?

[StillAWarrior]

Of course I know what he meant. He meant if we didn’t do any testing there would be no reported cases that he considered positive, even though he might have had tens of thousands of deaths. It’s all about the optics with him.

Do you think I got it wrong? Can you think of any positive way to interpret what he said?

Yes, I do think you got it wrong.  Strongly.  And I already explained what I think he was very clearly saying.

[MU82]

Extremely unlikely that those sailors tested positive a second time as a result of a second infectious instance. Much more likely to be two false negatives or one false positive. They are likely still shedding detectable viral load but not at a threshold that is infectious

Certainly possible, and I hope it's the case.

[GooooMarquette]

Yes, I do think you got it wrong.  Strongly.  And I already explained what I think he was very clearly saying.

Wow - I thought you were joking...both with your interpretation, and with the comment that it would be "good" if interpreted that way.

Every epidemiologist on earth agrees that knowing the prevalence of a disease is an absolutely critical metric in combating the disease. Not knowing that would leave us even more blind than we are. We have to test to have any real chance of moving forward.

And putting the good/bad part aside...clear communication is a critical and fundamental skill for anyone in a high-level leadership position. If you can't clearly and consistently get your message across in a way everyone can understand, you are destined to be a failed leader because people will spend more time debating what the hell you meant than about the actual policy ramifications of your position.

------------------

Edited to add:

Below is the reaction to Trump's comments by a columnist in Forbes...considered by the media bias fact checker to be a "right-center" publication:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/05/15/trump-without-doing-covid-19-coronavirus-testing-we-would-have-very-few-cases-here-is-the-reaction/#73480b12518c

So if even relatively conservative publications are interpreting it in the negative way I did, you might want to reconsider the validity of your, ummm, generous interpretation.

[StillAWarrior]

Wow - I thought you were joking...both with your interpretation, and with the comment that it would be "good" if interpreted that way.

Every epidemiologist on earth agrees that knowing the prevalence of a disease is an absolutely critical metric in combating the disease. Not knowing that would leave us even more blind than we are. We have to test to have any real chance of moving forward.

And putting the good/bad part aside...clear communication is a critical and fundamental skill for anyone in a high-level leadership position. If you can't clearly and consistently get your message across in a way everyone can understand, you are destined to be a failed leader because people will spend more time debating what the hell you meant than about the actual policy ramifications of your position.

Nowhere in Trump's quote did he suggest that we should stop or reduce testing. That's kind of the gist of my annoyance.  People are interpreting that comment to mean that he was suggesting we limit testing.  I do not believe that is a fair interpretation of his comment. In fact, I think that his focus these days is actually to test as much as possible because, frankly, he seems strangely obsessed with being the world's leader in testing. 

Also, I agree and have said repeatedly that he is not communicating clearly or leading effectively.  I've never once denied that. It's a problem. But, nothing is gained by misrepresenting and distorting what he does say.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Oh, for the good old days when Fox News would explode because President Obama wore a tan suit.

I've been thinking about this for weeks.  Wondering when they would run a segment, bigger scandal Obama's tan suit or Trump's Coronavirus response and then go into why the suit was unAmerican or something.

[StillAWarrior]

I've been thinking about this for weeks.  Wondering when they would run a segment, bigger scandal Obama's tan suit or Trump's Coronavirus response and then go into why the suit was unAmerican or something.

I've seen this mentioned several times in the last day or two (here and elsewhere).  I have absolutely no recollection of this. Good lord, people are silly.

[wadesworld]

Bigger scandal, Obama’s tan suit or Obamagate?

[GooooMarquette]

Nowhere in Trump's quote did he suggest that we should stop or reduce testing. That's kind of the gist of my annoyance.  People are interpreting that comment to mean that he was suggesting we limit testing.  I do not believe that is a fair interpretation of his comment. In fact, I think that his focus these days is actually to test as much as possible because, frankly, he seems strangely obsessed with being the world's leader in testing. 

Also, I agree and have said repeatedly that he is not communicating clearly or leading effectively.  I've never once denied that. It's a problem. But, nothing is gained by misrepresenting and distorting what he does say.

I did not misrepresent or distort anything. I responded to the exact words of his direct quote with the most clear and direct interpretation; the same interpretation that I have seen across the political spectrum. And I never claimed that he said we should stop or reduce testing. I do, however, see his irritation as we increase it. Maybe that means he wants us to stop or reduce testing, but I never claimed that he said that.

You say that others put words into Trump’s  mouth, but now you are putting words into mine. Pot, meet kettle.

[GooooMarquette]

Also, I agree and have said repeatedly that he is not communicating clearly or leading effectively.  I've never once denied that. It's a problem. But, nothing is gained by misrepresenting and distorting what he does say.

Just curious: do you agree with my earlier comment that good communication skills are critical to being a good leader?

[StillAWarrior]

Just curious: do you agree with my earlier comment that good communication skills are critical to being a good leader?

Absolutely.

[MU82]

Infectious disease researcher talking about how some who recover from COVID-19 end up experiencing debilitating symptoms weeks, or even months, later: “I’ve studied 100 diseases. Covid is the strangest one I have seen in my medical career."

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242781491.html?

Several months and over 4 million reported cases into the global coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19 is still finding new ways to mystify researchers.

The latest puzzle: Why are some coronavirus patients suffering symptoms of the disease months after diagnosis?

Most mild cases are beaten within a two-week period, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest. But some patients, even young ones, are taking much longer to recover, outlets report, and experts aren’t sure why.

“For almost seven weeks I have been through a roller coaster of ill health,” Paul Garner, a professor of infectious diseases at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, wrote in an essay for the British Medical Journal. “Although not hospitalised, it has been frightening and long. The illness ebbs and flows, but never goes away.”

Others have shared similar stories.

Kelsey Meeks, a 36-year-old attorney, told Business Insider that 32 days after testing positive, her most intense symptoms have subsided, but she can’t shake persistent body aches, headaches and nasal congestion.

Meeks was by all accounts in good physical health, and even ran a four-day, 48.6-mile challenge at Disney World back in January.

“I haven’t had a day where I woke up and I thought, ‘Oh, I’m over this,’” she told Business Insider. “I can have a better day and then the next day I can’t walk and talk at the same time.”

Massachusetts resident Kate Porter described an ebbing and flowing “wave” of symptoms, CNBC reported. Porter would feel as if she was improving one day, only to be knocked down the next with low-grade fevers, coughing, chest-tightness, and stomach ailments.

“I woke up drenched in sweat this morning,” she said a month after her diagnosis, CNBC reported. “It literally feels like it will never end.”

Tim Spector, a King’s College London professor, suggests a large number of people are dealing with a “long tail” form of COVID-19 that lingers weeks longer than the average case, he told The Guardian.

“I’ve studied 100 diseases. Covid is the strangest one I have seen in my medical career,” he said.

[Jockey]

Also, I agree and have said repeatedly that he is not communicating clearly or leading effectively.  I've never once denied that. It's a problem. But, nothing is gained by misrepresenting and distorting what he does say.

This is where I have issues, SAW. And I don't want this to be an attack on you as i respect what you say.

My question is: Where do you draw the line between not communicating clearly and lying?

Let me give just one example that he has repeated dozens of times (if not more). “When I took over our military, we did not have ammunition. I was told by a top general, maybe the top of them all, ‘Sir, I’m sorry sir, we don’t have ammunition.’"

I say this not as a political argument - because anyone with a brain knows we didn't run out of ammo. But, a leader, any leader,  needs honesty especially in a crisis. It just seems that when people blame those lies on the the Media that reported them for the sole reason of not offending him, something is wrong.

[GooooMarquette]

Infectious disease researcher talking about how some who recover from COVID-19 end up experiencing debilitating symptoms weeks, or even months, later: “I’ve studied 100 diseases. Covid is the strangest one I have seen in my medical career."

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242781491.html?

Several months and over 4 million reported cases into the global coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19 is still finding new ways to mystify researchers.

The latest puzzle: Why are some coronavirus patients suffering symptoms of the disease months after diagnosis?

Yep. This is an awfully strange one. If you just look at the basics of the illness, this looks just like a particularly virulent strain of the flu. But things like the Kawasaki-like illness in young kids, strokes in people around 40 years old, or the months-long course in some otherwise healthy individuals, it appears there is something quite unique about this one that docs still don’t have a handle on.

Hopefully they can figure it out soon.

[forgetful]

Nowhere in Trump's quote did he suggest that we should stop or reduce testing. That's kind of the gist of my annoyance.  People are interpreting that comment to mean that he was suggesting we limit testing.  I do not believe that is a fair interpretation of his comment. In fact, I think that his focus these days is actually to test as much as possible because, frankly, he seems strangely obsessed with being the world's leader in testing. 

Also, I agree and have said repeatedly that he is not communicating clearly or leading effectively.  I've never once denied that. It's a problem. But, nothing is gained by misrepresenting and distorting what he does say.

Anytime someone makes a statement that can be interpreted in multiple ways, I think it is best to look through their historical statements to get some guidance. Trump has said:

"Testing is unnecessary"
"Testing makes us look bad"

He's said that we don't need more testing, and those calling for it are politically motivated.

And then there is the fact that Kushner was advising Trump to do less testing, because it would help the stock market.

In light of all these, your interpretation of his words, contradicts what the literal meaning, and his history of prior statements.

So in my opinion he doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt here. There are other times, where you are right, and the media portrays his words in the worst light (often the literal meaning).

[forgetful]

Yep. This is an awfully strange one. If you just look at the basics of the illness, this looks just like a particularly virulent strain of the flu. But things like the Kawasaki-like illness in young kids, strokes in people around 40 years old, or the months-long course in some otherwise healthy individuals, it appears there is something quite unique about this one that docs still don’t have a handle on.

Hopefully they can figure it out soon.

I think it is fairly simple actually. The virus attacks the body through the ACE2 receptor. That is part of the Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System that quite literally regulates everything from blood pressure to inflammation. It also regulates things like stem cell differentiation, sperm production/quality, and metabolism, and many others (including some we don't even know).

The ACE2 receptor also plays a particularly strong role in some metabolic (think obesity), and the inflammation response. For the most part this is centered in the lungs, where the network is known to play a role in ARDS. But there is also a lot of this receptor free-floating in our blood stream, where there are lessor understood roles in global inflammation and metabolism. The result, is that as our body fights this, and as the virus fights us, the whole RAAS system goes haywire. The end result is things like:

Disruptions in clotting pathways
Altered inflammatory responses
Acute Respiratory Distress
Altered renal function
Altered heart function

And, because the this network is regulated differently in men, women, and children, you are going to see these aspects vary depending on sex, and age. The problem, is we do not have a great clinical way to predict who will experience what outcomes, so it appears strange.

That is most likely because we have no clinical way to identify where the infection first gained hold, lungs, eyes, bloodstream. And we don't have the resources to test for genetic variation in the pathway. Essentially in each person the war (immune system vs. infection) may be fought on different battlefields as this receptor is so widely dispersed in our bodies. The doctors (allies of the immune system), don't know where to show up to fight.

[GooooMarquette]

I think it is fairly simple actually. The virus attacks the body through the ACE2 receptor. That is part of the Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System that quite literally regulates everything from blood pressure to inflammation. It also regulates things like stem cell differentiation, sperm production/quality, and metabolism, and many others (including some we don't even know).

The ACE2 receptor also plays a particularly strong role in some metabolic (think obesity), and the inflammation response. For the most part this is centered in the lungs, where the network is known to play a role in ARDS. But there is also a lot of this receptor free-floating in our blood stream, where there are lessor understood roles in global inflammation and metabolism. The result, is that as our body fights this, and as the virus fights us, the whole RAAS system goes haywire. The end result is things like:

Disruptions in clotting pathways
Altered inflammatory responses
Acute Respiratory Distress
Altered renal function
Altered heart function

And, because the this network is regulated differently in men, women, and children, you are going to see these aspects vary depending on sex, and age. The problem, is we do not have a great clinical way to predict who will experience what outcomes, so it appears strange.

That is most likely because we have no clinical way to identify where the infection first gained hold, lungs, eyes, bloodstream. And we don't have the resources to test for genetic variation in the pathway. Essentially in each person the war (immune system vs. infection) may be fought on different battlefields as this receptor is so widely dispersed in our bodies. The doctors (allies of the immune system), don't know where to show up to fight.

Thanks. You are clearly better steeped in the basic science part than I am - or maybe my old mind has just forgotten too much from Physiology and Pathology classes - so I appreciate this nice summary.

Guess the biggest issues are highlighted in your final two paragraphs. If we can't predict who is going to get the most debilitating forms, hopefully we can at least do a better job of identifying them earlier to mitigate some of the worst outcomes.

[injuryBug]

Yep. This is an awfully strange one. If you just look at the basics of the illness, this looks just like a particularly virulent strain of the flu. But things like the Kawasaki-like illness in young kids, strokes in people around 40 years old, or the months-long course in some otherwise healthy individuals, it appears there is something quite unique about this one that docs still don’t have a handle on.

Hopefully they can figure it out soon.

Simple answer it is man made

[pbiflyer]

Well since victory has been declared in Wisconsin, I guess news like this doesn’t matter anymore, especially since the Wisconsin thread has been locked and nothing covid related will ever happen there again. I guess you guys can just check out of this forum from now on.

Record number of COVID-19 cases reported Saturday in Wisconsin, with 502 infections
https://www.postcrescent.com/story/news/2020/05/16/wisconsin-coronavirus-record-number-new-cases-reported-dhs/5205710002/

[Johnny B]

Well since victory has been declared in Wisconsin, I guess news like this doesn’t matter anymore, especially since the Wisconsin thread has been locked and nothing covid related will ever happen there again. I guess you guys can just check out of this forum from now on.

Record number of COVID-19 cases reported Saturday in Wisconsin, with 502 infections
https://www.postcrescent.com/story/news/2020/05/16/wisconsin-coronavirus-record-number-new-cases-reported-dhs/5205710002/

Obviously there will be a spike with most things open. Hope it aint to bad i guess

[injuryBug]

Well since victory has been declared in Wisconsin, I guess news like this doesn’t matter anymore, especially since the Wisconsin thread has been locked and nothing covid related will ever happen there again. I guess you guys can just check out of this forum from now on.

Record number of COVID-19 cases reported Saturday in Wisconsin, with 502 infections
https://www.postcrescent.com/story/news/2020/05/16/wisconsin-coronavirus-record-number-new-cases-reported-dhs/5205710002/

Has nothing to do with the FACT that testing has doubled over the past couple weeks.  Need to look at the percentage of positive

[pbiflyer]

Has nothing to do with the FACT that testing has doubled over the past couple weeks.  Need to look at the percentage of positive

That would only matter if they were testing with the exact same criteria. Testing in many places now includes people that are not showing symptoms. Of course positive percentages will go down.

And basically what you are now arguing is that there previously were a bunch of undetected cases before wider testing.

[mu03eng]

Well since victory has been declared in Wisconsin, I guess news like this doesn’t matter anymore, especially since the Wisconsin thread has been locked and nothing covid related will ever happen there again. I guess you guys can just check out of this forum from now on.

Record number of COVID-19 cases reported Saturday in Wisconsin, with 502 infections
https://www.postcrescent.com/story/news/2020/05/16/wisconsin-coronavirus-record-number-new-cases-reported-dhs/5205710002/

Wisconsin has been "open" 3 days, these tests were conducted at least a day ago, more likely 2-3 days ago. They have absolutely zero to do with whether Wisconsin is open or not. Wisconsin may be on a sleigh ride to hell post SC decision but it's way too early to know that.