COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Contagious and communicable diseases have been around forever and they will continue to be around for infinity. 

We do everything we can to eliminate these preventable deaths within reason and what we determine as a country/local community to be within reason seems incredibly inconsistent when you bounce from virus to virus. 

Why is COVID deaths more important and thus require these draconian measures that we don’t usually even entertain when it comes to other preventable deaths?

Uh....because this is a much more serious disease?

How many hospital ICUs are overrun with influenza patients?

[Pakuni]

Why have you been so flippant about pneumonia, influenza, HAIs, sepsis, or other preventable deaths in previous years? 

I’m all for doing what we can (within reason) to limit any and all kinds of preventable death .  The “within reason” part is what we’re allowing to divide our country even further.  To suggest a COVID death in 2020 is more devastating then an influenza death in 2019 or in 2022 is what confuses me.   

I haven't been flippant about any deaths, and who said a COVID death is more devastating?
That said, aren't we well past comparing this to the flu? Hasn't that been proven utterly asinine by now?

And what's your definition of "within reason?" Cause I don't see things like asking people to wear a mask, practice social distancing and avoid indoor gatherings where social distancing is not possible as unreasonable. Do you?

[forgetful]

Attached is risk of death based off latest CDC figures.

Of course death isn’t the only thing we need to worry about here, no one wants to get sick and there could be long term health issues as a result but let’s remember that this virus has become largely manageable with improved treatments and early detection.

Don’t want to lose site of the forest folks.

Your numbers are misleading. It reports probability of dying each month, based on previous numbers that include quarantines. But, if you want to base things off those numbers, lets put those numbers in perspective. That means:

1.6M deaths for 75-84 age group in the next year.
1.2M deaths for 65-74 age group in the next year.
0.7M deaths for 55-64 age group in the next year.
0.32M deaths for 45-54 age group in the next year.
0.13M deaths for 35-44 age group in the next year.

For the other age groups you would be expecting between 10k-50k deaths in each age group too.

For a grand total of around 4M deaths in the next calendar year. Do you want to trust that source/representation still? I think you lost site of the trees and ran smack into a few of them.

[wadesworld]

I thought we had moved past the whole “it’s the flu” thing. I guess I was wrong. 

[forgetful]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/europe/spain-culls-mink-scli-intl/index.html

I think this article hints at where/how this virus emerged and spread. I think it most likely was infected secondary animals (so not bats directly) that were either infected by other animals, or even isolated individuals. Those animals were traded from the initial location of the virus, likely in Yunnan province, to the Wuhan area where they were likely breeding/raising infected animals.

Initial early viruses were likely due to breeding/raising animals, and people associated with that business (or buying from that business). Animals then sold to the wet market, leading to massive spread.

We'll never know the real path, but that is most probable, especially with how clear it is now that this can spread rapidly in some captive animal populations.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Why is COVID deaths more important and thus require these draconian measures that we don’t usually even entertain when it comes to other preventable deaths?

Still trying to make a comparison to flu? Really?

H1N1: 12,000-17,000 deaths over 12 months
Flu: ~30,000 deaths annually
COVID-19: 140,000+ deaths in 4 months. Est 2,200,000 deaths if no action taken (which, it seems, is now the official recommendation of the White House)

Does that answer your question why COVID is more important?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Pace I won’t attack you for bringing forward mortality.  It’s important. 

The reality is though we’ve had to cancel elective surgeries in significant population centers and 900 people per day are dying.  In those areas the economy is still in shambles despite having less restrictions.  We are creating a level of spread that puts schools in jeopardy of opening and a scary situation in the fall when we need all these beds for the pesky flu. 

That’s my Forest. 

[pacearrow02]

Uh....because this is a much more serious disease?

How many hospital ICUs are overrun with influenza patients?

During the flu season it’s not unheard of.  I’m not comparing it to the flu as far as the contagion of it or the mortality of it.  It’s obviously a much more dangerous virus even though you’re comparing flu numbers (that has a vaccine) to a new novel virus that we still have more questions then answers too so not really a fair comparison.

I’m comparing the public reaction to a Covid infection or death to an annual influenza death.  If the goal of all this is to prevent as man deaths as possible no matter what the virus is called, should these Covid measures (that I largely agree with) be the new normal for every flu season is my question? 

[pacearrow02]

I haven't been flippant about any deaths, and who said a COVID death is more devastating?
That said, aren't we well past comparing this to the flu? Hasn't that been proven utterly asinine by now?

And what's your definition of "within reason?" Cause I don't see things like asking people to wear a mask, practice social distancing and avoid indoor gatherings where social distancing is not possible as unreasonable. Do you?

I don’t see those as unreasonable and practice all of the above myself.  If when the Covid vaccine becomes available it starts to take on the contagion and mortality profile of influenza are we all good and can go back to enjoying meals indoors, shaking hands, etc.?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

During the flu season it’s not unheard of.  I’m not comparing it to the flu as far as the contagion of it or the mortality of it.  It’s obviously a much more dangerous virus even though you’re comparing flu numbers (that has a vaccine) to a new novel virus that we still have more questions then answers too so not really a fair comparison.

I’m comparing the public reaction to a Covid infection or death to an annual influenza death.  If the goal of all this is to prevent as man deaths as possible no matter what the virus is called, should these Covid measures (that I largely agree with) be the new normal for every flu season is my question? 

No.  As you point out, influenza is less deadly and we have a decent vacinne.

[pacearrow02]

Your numbers are misleading. It reports probability of dying each month, based on previous numbers that include quarantines. But, if you want to base things off those numbers, lets put those numbers in perspective. That means:

1.6M deaths for 75-84 age group in the next year.
1.2M deaths for 65-74 age group in the next year.
0.7M deaths for 55-64 age group in the next year.
0.32M deaths for 45-54 age group in the next year.
0.13M deaths for 35-44 age group in the next year.

For the other age groups you would be expecting between 10k-50k deaths in each age group too.

For a grand total of around 4M deaths in the next calendar year. Do you want to trust that source/representation still? I think you lost site of the trees and ran smack into a few of them.

So then the task force, local governors, and this administration is doing a helluva a job in mitigating this thing is what you’re saying?

[pacearrow02]

No.  As you point out, influenza is less deadly and we have a decent vacinne.

But why wouldn’t this now be the new normal if we can take a flu season that might have 40,000 deaths down to maybe 10,000 deaths?

[wadesworld]

But why wouldn’t this now be the new normal if we can take a flu season that might have 40,000 deaths down to maybe 10,000 deaths?

Because when people have the flu they show symptoms and (if they aren’t idiots) are staying home from work and other public places, and because people can get a vaccine for the flu.

Honestly, how are we still trying to compare this to the flu? I just can’t fathom that at this point. It’s completely absurd.

[Hards Alumni]

So then the task force, local governors, and this administration is doing a helluva a job in mitigating this thing is what you’re saying?

Obviously not.  Compare what we're staring at to what the rest of the world is staring at, and you can objectively say that we have failed as a nation.

[Hards Alumni]

But why wouldn’t this now be the new normal if we can take a flu season that might have 40,000 deaths down to maybe 10,000 deaths?

Slippery slope arguments are logical fallacies.

I take your point, but 40k deaths per year with zero attempts at mitigation is one thing.

We are well past 140k in 4 months with lockdowns, social distancing, and mask wearing.

Without those measures... you do realize how bad this would be, right?

[Its DJOver]

But why wouldn’t this now be the new normal if we can take a flu season that might have 40,000 deaths down to maybe 10,000 deaths?

In an ideal world yes, I would love to see the idea of getting a yearly flu shoot have the perception of almost being mandatory rather than the idea of it being a chore that it currently has.  I would love to see an increase in voluntary mask wearing every flu season rather than just a couple of additional posters reminding people to wash their hands.  I think a silver lining of the pandemic is that once it passes, the annual flu will be taken much more seriously and we will hopefully see a long term reduction in average annual deaths.  But none of that means that Covid should not be taken extremely seriously right now, or that as a nation, we aren't failing in our responses.

[pacearrow02]

Pace I won’t attack you for bringing forward mortality.  It’s important. 

The reality is though we’ve had to cancel elective surgeries in significant population centers and 900 people per day are dying.  In those areas the economy is still in shambles despite having less restrictions.  We are creating a level of spread that puts schools in jeopardy of opening and a scary situation in the fall when we need all these beds for the pesky flu. 

That’s my Forest.

Thanks for the calm reasoned response, I mean that.

I personally struggle with the idea of accepting 30-40,000 annual influenza deaths combined with the possibility of 40-50,000 annual COVID deaths (once vaccine is available) as an acceptable new normal.  The mitigation steps put into place the last 6 months seem to be working fairly well when followed and I think we all need to seriously start considering what the future looks like as it relates to going to stores, eating at restaurants, going to ball games, visiting high risk loved ones in nursing homes, etc.

The bar has been set the last few months that it’s not just deaths we’re trying to prevent, it’s simply people getting sick.

Unless of course.  This feverish reaction and heavy breathing regarding Covid has more to do with it being an election year then it does about protecting our most vulnerable and our communities health as a whole.

I like to think we haven’t fallen that far as a country though.

[pacearrow02]

Slippery slope arguments are logical fallacies.

I take your point, but 40k deaths per year with zero attempts at mitigation is one thing.

We are well past 140k in 4 months with lockdowns, social distancing, and mask wearing.

Without those measures... you do realize how bad this would be, right?

I agree without those measures this would be 10-20x’s worse which is why I believe the task force and the public has done a commendable job in trying to keep this thing at bay.

So 40K lives.  Lives of kids and folks much younger then 99% of the lives we’re losing to Covid aren't worth taking these reasonable steps of 14 day quarantine, work from home, 2 day a week school schedules, no fans in attendance at ball games, no in person faith services, etc...

Surprised to hear that.

[pacearrow02]

Obviously not.  Compare what we're staring at to what the rest of the world is staring at, and you can objectively say that we have failed as a nation.

And what is that, that we’ve objectively failed at as a country?  The lack of uniting together but rather having bickering partisan battles?  Mask wearing compliance?  Sneaking out during lock down?  Not washing hands?

We implemented all of the same strategies and recommendations as other countries aside from maybe our policies around nursing homes.

The lack of compliance by the public to those policies is our fault and our fault alone as a people. 

[Hards Alumni]

And what is that, that we’ve objectively failed at as a country?  The lack of uniting together but rather having bickering partisan battles?  Mask wearing compliance?  Sneaking out during lock down?  Not washing hands?

We implemented all of the same strategies and recommendations as other countries aside from maybe our policies around nursing homes.

The lack of compliance by the public to those policies is our fault and our fault alone as a people.

I will agree that the public non compliance is a major problem.  What is the underlying reason?  Leadership without a unified message steeped in science.

You do see that a lot of the people who refuse to wear masks etc don't seem to be the most intelligent people, right?  The majority of these folks follow what the President and his circle has said, and what they do.  They don't listen to science, they listen to their master.

[Jockey]

Classic Scoop.

One guy makes an observation that is clearly not aligned with reality and a dozen Scoopers argue over and over and over to no avail.

Almost like Chicos never left.

[Jockey]

Deaths back up to 1000 yesterday. First time since early June.

[pacearrow02]

I will agree that the public non compliance is a major problem.  What is the underlying reason?  Leadership without a unified message steeped in science.

You do see that a lot of the people who refuse to wear masks etc don't seem to be the most intelligent people, right?  The majority of these folks follow what the President and his circle has said, and what they do.  They don't listen to science, they listen to their master.

“....Don’t seem to be the most intelligent”.  Not sure that’s fair, either way I believe all along I think it was the responsibility of businesses and local leaders (mayors and govs) to mandate or not mandate masks.

The phases and timeline of Covid infections have been all over the map so to institute the mask requirement from a federal level I don’t think would have worked any better.  In reality it’s not until people become legitimately scared that the infection has taken hold in their community that the compliance to mask wearing goes up.  And those local decisions should be left for local business and elected leadership.

With that said, people are still going to do what they feel they have the right to do.  Right or wrong, that’s America.

[forgetful]

So then the task force, local governors, and this administration is doing a helluva a job in mitigating this thing is what you’re saying?

No, I'm saying your graphic is a crap way of analyzing and representing the data, and if taken as fact does not support your assertions/stance whatsoever. But you already knew that.

The administration is doing nothing. We have no policy. The task force is being ignored, and some local governors are intentionally instituting policies that will lead to deaths.

The fact is, if what is currently going on in places like Hidalgo county, TX, where the only way you get a hospital bed is if someone else dies, and they are overrun with deaths, was happening in the wealthy and white communities, we'd have a massive response and nationwide shutdowns. Instead, we are just letting people die. Apparently, not all lives matter.

[pacearrow02]

Classic Scoop.

One guy makes an observation that is clearly not aligned with reality and a dozen Scoopers argue over and over and over to no avail.

Almost like Chicos never left.

I’m guessing you’re referring to myself as the one scooper who is in unhinged from reality.  What did I say that is unhinged?

I’m arguing to continue these mitigation practices forward to save as many lives as we can.  You disagree?